A GREAT End To The Fall Season!
On To Gulfstream!
Originally I had selections for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and was looking at handicapping for Saturday. But a B-I-G weather system pushed through the upper Midwest and Northeast causing Penn National to postpone the entire Wednesday stakes-laden card to Saturday. The result of this was that I ended up with no selections on Wednesday, and didn't have to handicap any races for Saturday. We had traveled to Pennsylvania on Monday afternoon where it was below thirty degrees.
We picked up Brad and Lauren on Wednesday afternoon and they were delighted with the cold weather and dusting of snow, but when we drove out to Kim's twin sister Karrie's house for Thanksgiving they had picked up multiple inches of snow, and it continued to snow all day Thursday and Friday, eventually accumulating close to eight inches! It made for the "Perfect Day" for everyone as nearly the entire Woods clan was on hand for the festivities.
Thursday November 27
But, on to the racing! Last week had been the opening of the Fair Grounds and today was the traditional Thanksgiving Handicap, so I handicapped the entire card. In the opener, it was a maiden claiming event and I liked What's In A Name who was an obvious favorite. She was third in her debut, then second in her next start when over six clear of the show horse. And that was at Churchill where the depth of the field was probably much stiffer than what she would face today. She was sent off as the 3/2 favorite and sat well back in the field. She moved four wide on the turn picking off fillies, split runners entering the stretch and wore down the leaders late to win going away. WIN number one! The next two selections I liked at a price....Penny's Deputy was 6/1 in a turf sprint and led into the far turn and as they turned for home, but weakened badly to finish 6th; and then Dead On sat well back going two turns over the turf course - which is where you usually want to be over the inner course in New Orleans. But his rally was too little, too late. Third. The featured Thanksgiving Handicap was up next. The analysis of the race went through what you thought of likely favorite Delauney. This guy had been a beast two years ago, arguably the best sprinter in the country in the spring/summer of 2012. But he'd since seemed to regress. He had looked to be returning to his old self last spring and I had him in the Grade 3 Aristides when he showed his old form. But today he was coming off of two losses. It appeared to me that both had been quality efforts to me however. After the Aristides win he was a good second in the Iowa Sprint behind Work All Week who went on to win the Breeders' Cup Sprint and is STILL unbeaten in dirt sprints. Then he was a solid third behind Mico Marguerita. In addition to that he'd been working very well AND was 5/4-1-0 over the FG strip. If I'd been at the races or watching live I WOULD have upped the bet because the main competition, Heitai, scratched out of the race. Delauney was indeed back on top of his game as he ran away from the field! 
My last two picks of the day did not score. In the Grade 2 Falls City Handicap I went with 4/5 favorite Don't Tell Sophia. She had won the Grade 1 Spinster two back and was a closing second to super filly Untapable in the Breeders' Cup Distaff last out. She was 4/3-1-0 over the Louisville strip and seemed to outclass these. She came with her patented late run, but was just a little too far back, second. Then in the Fair Grounds finale I was a non-threatening 6th at 6/1 in a maiden claimer where Hourly Appointment dueled to the turn before stopping. On Friday I didn't handicap any races, but I thought Todd Pletcher's Florida Derby hero, Constitution looked solid in his second start since that sensational win. And he looked to be the lone speed in Churchill's Grade 1 Clark Handicap. He was in front, but pressured by the Bob Baffert favorite Hoppertunity all the way to mid-stretch. He weakened late to be a good third.
Saturday November 29
My Mom's 80th Birthday celebration continued today. We had driven back to Ohio on Friday afternoon and today we spent the day at my sister Laurie's home. My brother and his family joined us there to celebrate! There were several stakes races today, but between all the festivities of Thanksgiving, and then traveling most of the day Friday I didn't have time to handicap, and I was ok with that since I had my picks at Penn National already selected. The first race I had a runner in was The Swatara Stakes. Stormin Monarcho was my selection, and I did not go higher than the minimum on him though he looked best....why? Over his last six races he had alternated triple digit efforts with excellent races with sub-par efforts and today would appear to be the "down" race in the cycle. But upon closer examination you could make a legitimate case that those "off" races came against far superior runners. I saw him sitting just off the speed and being best through the lane. The race unfolded exactly that was as he tracked four front-runners. He moved four wide on the turn and caught the survivor; dueled through the lane and edged clear to WIN! 
My next pick was in the Fabulous Strike Handicap. The winning machine Ben's Cat had won the first two editions and NORMALLY he'd be an overwhelming choice here. But today he was coming into the race off a three-race losing streak, the first time that had happened in many years. But he was my choice because all of those efforts could be dismissed - in my opinion - and today Ben's Cat would probably offer real value for the first time since I've been following him. Jeff texted me if I had any picks for today and this was the one I gave him (and in turn he shared with several of his friends). Today the "real" Ben's Cat was on the track. He settled nicely just behind the dueling leaders, then glided up effortlessly to engage them on the turn, emerged five wide turning for home and just ran away from the field in a sensational effort! And the best part, he went off at a VERY generous 3/1!
The $8.40 price was sensational....made the day, for not only me but for Jeff and his buddies. And yes, I appear to be a superstar handicapper to them all :) On a side note I was excited because I won the first two stakes of the fall season with Geeky Gorgeous in the Eleven North Handicap and Bradester in the Grade 3 Ack Ack and then the last two stakes of the fall season with Stormin Monarcho in the Swatara and Ben' Cat in the Fabulous Strike! But my "best" of the day/night at Penn National was Joe Franklin in an nw2L allowance. He had ran sharply in his debut setting a fast pace and wasn't caught until deep stretch by a runner who came right back to win again, while he was SIX clear of the show runner. Then in his second start, last out, he went wire-to-wire over Keeneland maidens. No question that his foes at Penn National would not be the same quality as he faced at the prestigious Keeneland track. As I wrote in my analysis, it's always a risk to back short priced runners coming off their maiden win, but both of those races had earned figures (70 and 79) that were better than any race any of today's opponents had run. Right to the front and LONG GONE! I was watching the replays on my laptop and Brad's wife Lauren asked me how I'd done for today. I told her initially that I'd won three of four before I realized I had not had four selections...only three! So for today I was a perfect 3-for-3 and made a nice profit of over $45! A great way to finish off the fall. And now finally, Saturday is OPENING DAY at Gulfstream Park's Championship meet!
