April 26

Opening Night!

Tonight was the first day of the Summer Handicapping Project, Opening Night at Churchill Downs, and another "Downs After Dark" program.  This summer I have several things going on with my handicapping......first, I have two projects - here at Churchill Downs for the May through June time period.  I'll take most of July off, then resume with a Monmouth Park project from late July through Labor Day which will be highlighted by a visit to Monmouth Park on Haskell Day.  Throughout the Churchill portion of the project I will be tracking my picks - both the complete set of picks and my betting selections - and I will be tracking Jill Byrne's picks.  She is the best online handicapper I know and I hope I can keep up with her!

So, on tonight's card I had seven selections from the ten races carded.  I found that "interesting" in that I'd pre-determined that I would be more selective - both with the number of betting selections and with the amount of the investment.  First post was not until 6 pm, and I got to watch the opener before we went to dinner with Kim's parents.  I did not have a bet, but my pick ran fifth while Jill Byrne's pick won....wow :)  When we returned from dinner I watched the replays through the fifth race and then hooked the computer up to our 65" HD television in the living room.  The second race was my first bet of the night.  I liked Ration, as did Jill, and he went off at 2/1.  His trainer Al Stall was a perfect 4-for-4 over the last two springs when dropping horses in class - an obvious Churchill Downs 40% Club play.  Ration hugged the rail in second to the far turn and then seemed to wait for a chance to move outside to rally.  But by the time heads were turned for home he was several lengths behind and the best he could do was beat the rest of the field home for third while my second choice, City Steel, won at 5/1 and a long shot ran second.  The third race was my "best" of the night and featured another CD 40% Club play.  Even though Bob Baffert is based out west, he is a Club member with dirt sprinters.  Over the last two years he's scored with four of six, a 67% win average!  Socialbug not only had this going for her, but her only two losses had come to graded stakes winners.  Sharp works sealed the deal....I tripled the bet.  She went off at 3/5 and set the pace comfortably into the lane, but was run down with a 16th to go by my third choice, Anahauc, who paid $9.60.....Jill's top pick ran fourth.  I passed on the fourth - ran third (Jill was 7th - what's up with her picks?  Not only not winning, but not even close!).  In the fourth my pick was Highroller Dave.  This guy had score at this starter allowance level when claimed by Tom Amoss as the 3/5 favorite that day.  Of all the race categories, dirt sprints produced the biggest profit for this barn:  35% wins and a flat-bet profit of $38.40.  Toss in Rosie Napravnik as a 36% winning jockey and you can see why 'Dave was bet down to 3/5 favoritism.  Rosie had him tracking the longshot, loose on the lead front runner about six lengths off as they hit the far turn.  It looked like the front runner had plenty of gas left as they moved through the turn, but 'Dave was picking up momentum and rallied four wide from fifth into second and as they turned for home looking down the long Churchill stretch he had dead aim on the leader.  Caught him at the furlong marker and blew right on by to score by open lengths!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

My first score of the project and I cashed for nearly $20 while Jill's pick was a moderate sixth!  Both Jill and I had settled on Phat day in the 6th, but he was scratched.  We started playing cards with Kim's parents (the boys won three games in a row!) as I had the races on the big screen.  In the 7th we were on the turf.  As the paddock preview came on there was very little mention of my top selection, Franklin who was 3/1 and floated up to 6/1 as they headed towards the gate on the Matt Winn turf course.  He was trained by Michael Maker and this guy has SEVEN angles in the Churchill Downs 40% Club, but the one that applied here was Rosie Napravnik on board..... a 41% winning angle.  Franklin was stretching out from a synthetic sprint at Keeneland to a two-turn route tonight.  Maker had blinkers on and a sharp bullet work for this.  I pictured him having a pressing pace and then making his move as the field moved into the lane.  Well, I was sort of right.  He pressed the pace on the inside, but was behind a wall of three horses as they moved through the turn.  You could see Franklin was ready to roll, but had no where to go.  Rosie looked for a seam outside, but another runner was closing down the middle - TRAPPED!  Just inside the furlong marker a small seam opened up between horses two off the rail.  She said go and Franklin responded.  Within a few jumps he was lined up with three others across the track, but he had the momentum and as they hit the final fifty yards he burst free to score!  HORRAY! 

And the best part was he'd gone off at 5/1, paying $13.60 meaning I would cash for over $30 AND was guaranteed a winning night!  In a satisfying side bar, the 7/2 runner-up was Jill's horse :)  Next up was the feature, the Grade 3 Derby Trial at a flat mile on the main track.  Bob Baffert had two uncoupled colts in here, but both were also entered for the Kentucky Derby next Saturday.  Would one or either, or both go?  Both figured to be the favorite and I particularly liked Bayern.  He'd been my top pick in the Arkansas Derby.  He led all the way to the stretch then flattened out to be third.  The move back to a mile from a mile and an eighth seemed ideal.  But.....there seemed to be a lot of speed so I went for the upset with #10 Myositis Dan.  He was coming off a late running win at 7 furlongs at Keeneland (where he'd been my top pick!).  I thought the distance suited him and the pace was an ideal scenario.  Bayern went to the front and was challenged the entire way.  'Dan sat well back but was picking off horses as he rallied around the turn.  The straightened for home and Bayern was in a dogfight with the third choice.  'Dan was surging late.....my heart was pounding and as they hit the wire it was a three-way head bob.  My initial reaction was that I lost, but the replay looked like I just might have won......at 7/1! 

No such luck :(  So close.  Bayern officially crossed the wire first, Jill's pick, but was DQ'd for coming out on the runner-up in the lane.  They simply swapped finish positions in the official order.  In the ninth my pick scratched, Jill won for her second winner on the night.  In the finale we both had Dynaskra.  The only thing I didn't like was that Julian Leparoux was riding for Tom Amoss.  This was another 40% Club play as Amos scores with 47% of his maiden claimers.  Leparoux got away sharply and was poised to stalk the pace, but decided to try and wire the field.  Led into the lane but had nothing left for the long stretch, fading to fifth.  Nice Julian :(

So for the night, overall I was 2-for-8 with a 60 cent profit.  Jill went 2-for-9 and lost $7.  With my betting selections I was a solid 2-for-6, 33% and a flat bet profit!  A good way to start the summer!  Below are some pics from the night at Churchill as so many people were dressed up as a part of the "Downs After Dark" party theme.  Also, you see the BIG news, literally BIG, is that Churchill unveiled a monstrous video board mounted outside the track on the far side that is visible from every spot on the grounds!  We're back into action on Tuesday as Derby week opens!

Photos from Opening Night