June 19 - 22

June 19-22: A forgettable week.......

I'll have to check my records for sure, but I'm pretty sure that through the first seven weeks of the meet I've only had two 0-for-days; but this week I went 0-for TWICE of the four days of racing. The first was on Thursday where I was 3-for-4 in the money, but not a single winner. On Friday, it was the second "Downs After Dark" program and I was able to only find the winner's circle once. Saturday I was very disappointed with only a second and a third from five selections. But, I finished the week with a much more "typical" day.....on Sunday I was two-for-six, and the one of the wins was the lone "BEST BET" of the week. In the Sunday finale I liked El Zohan in a seven furlong nw2L. He seemed so obvious to me - first he was a Churchill Downs 40% Club play for trainer Michael Maker. El Zohan was making his third start of the meeting, and over the last two spring/summer meets Maker had scored with an astounding 67% of those runners! In addition El Zohan had been in this 2-lifetime condition three times.....once for double the price, but the other two times at this level. In those events he was second by a nose while five clear of the show and second by 3/4 of a length (after leading in mid-stretch going a one-turn mile, and today was a turn back to seven furlongs....where he was leading!) and he was three clear of the show that day. He was a fat 2/1 as they approached the gate; down to 9/5 as they loaded, and by the time they hit the far turn he had been pounded down to 4/5. He stalked the leaders to the turn, moved three wide to collar both of them. Then he lost some ground while wide into the lane but quickly was on even terms with the surviving pace setter, and drew off confidently.

WHOOO HOOO! I really don't think it had much to do with it, but I have to note for the record we were on the road Friday, heading to Orlando to take the kids to dinner; and then up early on Saturday to head to Hiawassee, Georgia to be with our good friends Sue & Dan, and with pal Lori. On Tuesday next week we head to Williamsburg for three days, back to Hiawassee for the weekend; then back to Orlando for a night and finally home on June 30. So this upcoming final week of the meet will find me handicapping on the road. But, not to worry, the second half of the summer handicapping project will then begin as I start to handicap the Monmouth Park races each day (though they only run Friday through Sunday currently).

June 15

June 15: One Win On Travel Day - A VERY GOOD Week!

Today was the sad goodbye day as we left Houston mid-morning and were in the air the majority of the day, arriving home around 9:30 pm. I had made my selections online before we left the hotel in Houston and spent the first part of the day at Jeff & Antoinette's with Cameron.

Once we were back in Ft. Lauderdale I was able to watch the replays of the six races I had selected for the day. I was in the money in five of the six, but only won one of them. In the 5th Defoe Street was TONS the best and won under wraps. I had two other good chances at wins - in the 2nd I led into the stretch, before being caught late and in the 8th and featured allowance on the turf I had a good price on Tropic (2/1). She was the class of the field and saved ground into the turn. Jockey Corey Lanerie decided to stay inside and look for a seam rather than hook wide into the turn. He found one, but at the 1/8th pole he had to check sharply as Tropic came to a near dead stop, she re-gained her momentum and was blocked; finally at the 16th pole Lanerie made a hard right hand turn, shifted out four wide and once Tropic saw green grass she was flying, but by then the eventual winner had built up a four length lead and it was too much to overcome, second - again.   Still it was an excellent week of handicapping, despite being away for the week! My numbers for this week at Churchill Downs:

22 / 10 - 3 - 2 ..... 45% WINS .....+ $46.50

Jun 14

DOWNS AFTER DARK

White Party!

Another Excellent Day!

Today was the final full day of our Houston visit.  Kim and I had spent the night so that Jeff and Antoinette could sleep in while we took care of Cameron after their late-night birthday celebrating.  We had a great morning with the little man; had lunch at the house; and then around 3 pm we headed south to Galveston, right on the coast, for a festival.  It was a good road trip and certainly any and all time with the family is enjoyable.  The highlight of the day came while waiting in the lobby of a restaurant to eat dinner - ironically they were understaffed and we didn't stay! - where they had three horses (had once been on a merry-go-round).  Cameron, and I of course, enjoyed playing on them and had one of the best photos of the trip taken (see at the bottom of this entry!).  First post was not until 6 pm at Churchill Downs so when we got home around 9:30 Jeff wanted to watch some of the races.  We watched first the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile from Santa Anita where I thought, in spite of what most felt would be a speed duel, that Obviously was the speed of the speed and would wire the field.  He cleared the field, but when the splits came up for the half mile in :44 and change, Jeff said, "too fast?"  And I replied, probably so, but I've seen him run sizzling splits similar to that going a mile and hang on.  Sure enough, in spite of a blazing 1:08 and change for three quarters he was still two lengths clear on the wire! 

EXCELLENT!  He paid $3.40 so my double investment netted me over $15 to start the day.  On to Louisville.....in the 2nd my pick, Athens was sent off as the 3/5 favorite.  He was four wide on the turn and faded badly to be 4th.  In the next race we were on the grass in a nw2x allowance.  I liked Marine Patrol who was lightly raced.  He was beaten less than a length in his most recent, and that was a THREE-other-than allowance, so this was a "hidden drop" if you didn't read the conditions carefully.  He was well back early, was sent up six wide, challenged for the lead at the furlong marker and wore down the leaders late to score!  Cashed for $13 on that one.  In the sixth it was the first of four graded events on the "Downs After Dark" card.  This was the Grade 3 Matt Winn for sophomores.  I had won this race last year and I thought I had a big chance tonight with Tapiture.  He had run every well in the Derby prep races at Oaklawn, but had troubled trips in his last two starts there and again found trouble in the Kentucky Derby.  Dropping from that 20-horse Grade 1 to this six horse Grade 3 I thought he looked really good.  The fact that Rosie Naravnik was riding for Steve Asmussen made him a Churchill 40% Club play (they click at 48%!).  He stalked the leaders to the turn and ten when Rosie said "GO!" he accelerated right to the front and ran away in the stretch!  WHOOOO HOOOO! 

With my triple investment I collected $30 on my second winner under the Twin Spires (3rd overall). I was very disappointed in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Handicap when On Fire Baby just didn't fire....she was the 6/5 favorite and my "best" of the night.  But she just didn't look comfortable when tracking the leaders into the turn.  Still the pace was not too fast and I hoped she'd accelerate through the lane, but instead she faded badly to fifth.  In the Grade 1 Stephen Foster I thought Revolutionary was the one to beat.  I especially did NOT like the likely, and post-time favorite Will Take Charge.  I liked Revolutionary even more when I read earlier today that trainer Todd Pletcher said he's show more speed tonight instead of being 30 lengths off the lead like he was when flying late to win the Grade 3 Pimlico Special.  But when the field came out of the first turn he was some 15-to-20 lengths back.  WAY too far back tonight.  His mild rally got only sixth.  Nettie had already gone to bed and Kim was falling asleep so we headed back to the hotel.  I opened up the twinspires replays and went on to the last of the four graded stakes, the Grade 3 Regret for sophomore fillies over the turf, going nine furlongs.  My upset pick was Aurelia's Belle.  She had huge Tomlinson numbers for the grass and was the daughter of top turf sire Lemon Drop Kid, and granddaughter to grass champion Kingmambo.  She'd never been on grass, but she had run well over synthetics and had been second and third behind top sophomore filly, the ill fated Onlyforyou at Gulfstream.  AND she had a best of 29 bullet work in a sizzling :59.4 for tonight's graded event.  She was in a good tracking spot down the backside, made a four wide move into the turn and had clear sailing on the outside as heads turned for home.  The favorite, A Little Bit Sassy squeezed through horses in mid-stretch and was desperate to hold my horse off and they hit the wire nearly simultaneously.  The angle wasn't perfect, but I thought I was second best.  They kept running the replay over and over and each time I was more sure I had just missed, and at a juicy 3/1.  But, there was a slight chance that maybe there'd be an objection. Through the lane someone was in tight on the rail, and while this didn't affect me, I thought maybe the winner had caused the problem.  Well first, the bad news.....the photo revealed I truly was second :(  Then the bad news, A Little Bit Sassy did NOT interfere with the rail runner.....then came the announcement, "Ladies and Gentlemen, please hold all tickets; in addition to the Steward's Inquiry there is a claim of foul by the rider of the unofficial second-place finisher, #6 Aurelia's Belle, jockey John Velazquez against the unofficial winner, #4 A Little Bit Sassy."  WHAT?????? Then they showed the head-on replay..... 

Oh yeah, she's coming down I thought.  But then the replay kept going back and forth from head-on to side view and I kept thinking, what are they looking at?  She obviously comes WAY out from the two path to about the six path and forces me from the five path to about the eight path.  I re-rally and just miss?  DUH....take her down.  Then the camera, which is focused on the toteboard shows all the numbers go out as the "INQUIRY" sign goes down.  "Ladies and Gentlemen, there has been a disqualification......'   Y - E - S !!!!!!!! 

When the #6 showed up as the official winner and the price of $8.80 came up, I knew I was cashing for nearly $45 and now I would make a clear profit on the day!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  In the final race I ran 4th.  So for the day - including the win in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile, I had won with four of eight selections, and made a profit of nearly $30!  What a great day......again!

June 13

Happy Birthday Antoinette!

 

What A G-R-E-A-T Day!

A Perfect Four-for-Four Today

What a great day today was, both here in Houston and at the races.  I was up early (5:00 am) to be picked up by Jeff to go to Houston Baptist University football workouts.  Talked with the "fellas" (the coaches), all good guys.  Then Antoinette and Kim brought Cameron to the office and picked me up so we could all go to the Houston Zoo.  Cameron was SOOO excited all day with the animals, who of course were all "doggies" - regardless of the fact that they were monkeys, ostriches, elephants, etc. :)  That evening we all went to dinner to celebrate Nette's birthday, then Kim and I took Cameron back home so the "kids" could "stay out and play."  After the little man went to bed I watched my races - I only had four on the day, and won with them ALL!  WHOOOO HOOOO!  In the opener I thought Highroller Dave was just a standout and should have been 1/9 in this spot.  Somehow he was allowed to go off at 1/2 and he rolled to his fourth consecutive win! 

I tripled the bet, so I cashed for over $20.  Passed on the second, but I doubled the bet in the 3rd on Kowboy Tuff.  This was a maiden claiming event, and much like the opener, I thought he was obvious.  He was claimed three back by the Brad Cox barn, who is winning at a 30% plus rate.  Last out he was a good second against $20K types, and today was in for half the price.....duh.  He pressed the lead to the stretch, opened up, and then had to work hard to hold on late, but he did.....never in doubt!  Two in a row! 

The 6/5 odds were a gift, and I graciously accepted the $23 payoff for my investment.  In the fourth race it was my "BET of the DAY!"  Shy Rosa was going 7 furlongs and she'd taken a step forward with each of her three North American starts on the Beyer scale.  The biggest improvement came when she tried the "real dirt" here at Churchill last time out.  She dropped today out of a starter allowance with an open $40K tag to today's restricted 2-lifetime $40K event.  The Brandon Walsh barn has been winning at Churchill Downs with rider Corey Lanerie at a huge 47% win rate AND at a remarkable $7.36 for ever $2 bet!  Too good to pass up.  She pressed the early pace along the rail, but when the leader squeezed down approaching the turn Lanerie smartly eased her back, then outside and re-engaged that one into the turn.  He had her on a tight hold until mid-turn and then let her run.  It was all over but the shouting as she drew off with authority!  WHOOO HOOOO! 

My third win in a row returned $3.60, so with my "prime-time" investment I was in for $36!  I passed the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th, and had my last play in the finale going a mile on the turf.  Keening was a Churchill Downs 40% Club play as a two-angle runner.  First she wasmaking her second start of the meet -  a 44% win angle - and better yet, as a stretch-out runner Lopresti won with that move an amazing 57% of the time.  As they headed down the backstretch the pace as relatively soft, so with Keening some six to seven off the lead I thought his chances were compromised.  But on the turn he made a sweeping move while gobbling up runners and drew off as much the best!  I had tripled the bet on this $4.40 winner, so  cashed for over $30, again! 

For the day, with ALL selections, I was an amazing six-for-nine with a second.  With my betting selections I was an even better 4-for-4 and had a profit of over $50!  What a wonderful day at the track!  And then it hit me as I updated my web page.....when I scored with Shy Rosa, it was my 5,000th win of my handicapping career!  Congratulations ME!

June 12

We Are In Houston!

We flew into Houston on Tuesday and it has been such a great visit so far!  Today was the first day of racing while "on the road," and I made my bets online this morning.  Later after a full day here I was able to watch the replays with both Jeff and Cameron.  It was so fun to have Cameron watching the replays with us; Jeff had told me he enjoyed watching the races on TV or on the Internet, and I was just amazed (though, I don't know why, he's so smart and aware of everything) that he watched the races with an understanding of what was happening.  He was excited, when I was, clutched on to me and cheered as our horses took the lead and crossed the finish line.  So adorable. 

In the second I had tapped Metro Dreamer, who was a solid 9/2 in non-winners of two lifetime.  He set the pace into the lane before giving way to finish fourth.  In the 4th it was my "BEST" of the day - Magical Moon in a five furlong turf sprint.  Trainer Al Stall had dropped four runners in class over the last two years and all had won.....I've already scored with two of these at the meet.  She was a ten length winner for Rosie Napravnik, who was riding today, when graduating over the Saratoga turf.  Today Magical Moon left the gate at 3/5, but broke a step slowly.  That cost her because he horse immediately to the inside and the one immediately to the outside came together and shut her off, costing her more lengths.  She moved to the outside and rallied, but the damage was done and she had too much ground to make up going just five furlongs......second.  But I cashed on my first winner of the week in the next race when Steel Cut dueled to the top of the stretch, put away that rival, then had to hold on late.  Another favorite, but I'll take the nearly $20 payoff! 

In the next race I came right back to score at a nice price.  I was a 5 1/2 furlong two-year-old Maiden Special event.  I liked Tapitsphere.  He had good works, but what pointed him out most to me was that it was the same owner, trainer, jockey - and family bloodlines - of Untapable, who was my "BET of the MEET" when she won the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks with my $200 WIN bet.  He was tracking the leaders into the turn, some three off the lead - and that is typically not good in a juvenile sprint at this abbreviated distance.  But as they turned for home he swung out off the rail and had all the momentum.  As I told Jeff, at the 1/8th pole I would have gladly sold you my ticket; at the 16th pole I probably still would have given you the ticket, but in the final strides he caught the tiring leader. 

The $7.40 payoff meant I would be cashing for nearly $40!  In the finale I was mid-pack going two turns on the turf.  Made a move three wide, but was blocked AND steadied in midstretch;  too late....fourth.  Still for the day, I'll take the 40% win rate - lost all of ONE dollar for the day :)

June 8

Close Week 6 With 3-for-5 Day!

Coming off a full day of racing and managing to pull off a profit I was hopeful that I'd finish off the week with a good day, and I did!  The first play of the day was a Churchill 40% Club play in the second.  Dynamic Knight was sent out by trainer Gary Simms.  With this being the second start of the meet for 'Knight that qualified as a 41% winning angle for this barn.  It was a two-turn claiming event and right out of the gate rider Corey Lanerie utilized his inside draw to shoot to the front.  He was in control and never threatened from the opening bell and he wired the field EASILY as the even money favorite!  It looked like I was going to go 2-for-2 when 3/5 favorite Oh Wise One looked to make it two in a row on the front end over the Churchill turf.  But while the fractions were comfortable, he was being pressed by a long shot into the far turn. Still, he opened up and was clear into the lane, but could not withstand the late rush of my second choice who nipped him in deep stretch to pull a $10 upset.  But in the sixth I was right back into the winning circle.  This was a maiden special turf sprint and I picked Mizzen Miss.  She had never been on the turf and had not raced since November, but she had the numbers to love the grass.  Most of all I loved her bullet work for this.  One of the most influential books I read early in my handicapping "undergraduate" studies was by William L. Scott entitled, "How Will Your Horse Run Today," and in it there was a full chapter about works prior to a race.  He espoused the importance of the five furlong workout, or a quick work.  Ever since I look for bullet (or near-bullet)works.  And when they come as best of a large sample of runners I've found that to be especially effective as an indicator of a big effort.  Well, Mizzen Miss was coming off a sizzling best-of-74 work.  I thought she was sitting on a HUGE race.  The gates opened an she exploded to the front.  Inside of five jumps she was clear by daylight.  The teletimer showed an opening fraction of :21.3, but she looked to be running well in hand.  And she was as she coasted to the wire, MUCH THE BEST! 

She had been allowed to leave the gate at a nice 2/1, and paid $6.60....I cashed for over $30!  WHOOO HOOOO!  Less than a half an hour later was my "best" of the day where Clear The Clover looked hard to go past.  In this claiming event we were going the unique one-turn mile.  The rest of the field was a combined 1-for-16 in ALL races at Churchill Downs and winless at the one-turn mile distance.  Meanwhile, Clear The Clover was a perfect 2-for-2 at Churchill and one of those had been at this unique race distance.  He was sent off as the 1/2 favorite and like my first two picks he went right to the front.  Much like Oh Wise One in the 3rd he was being pressed, but I could tell that he was well in hand for trainer Brad Cox.  He's been on fire at the meet, especially first off the claim like this.  When they moved through the turn the closest presser looked to make a run at 'Clover, but the rider was still motionless in the irons.  As they hit the top of the stretch and I was wondering if we had anything left, he asked for run and the race was over as Clear The Clover burst away from the field and won by daylight.....my third in a row! 

The triple investment netted over $20 and I'm guaranteed to be a winner today!  My final pick of the day came in the 9th and final race.  On the turf I liked Bustle.  First, she caught my eye as I'd had her on the Friday before the Travers when I was at Saratoga with my wingman Jason (my brother-in-law) and she'd burst from the back to win as my fifth win on the day - one of the best "racing adventure days" of my handicapping career.  With Calvin Borel, a good finishing rider I thought she was a good price play.  As they moved down the backside he had her moving into contention and as they came through the turn I thought he'd dive inside to save ground, but instead he waited to make a move.  He looked for a seam with a furlong to go, found none, made a right hand turn to get five wide and let her loose.....in a furious rush to the wire three of them hit the wire simultaneously.  They looked at the replay for a good five minutes and I thought that it was oh so close, so close that it depended where the wire was as I either just missed or just barely won.....the photo: 

So close to having a BIG day of over $50 in profits, but hey, I'll take a 3-for-5 day and over $25 in profits!  We leave Tuesday morning for Houston so I'll be playing the races from there this week, including next Saturday night's "Downs After Dark" card....we were there last year!

June 7

Belmont Stakes Day

A BIG Day at the races for me, but I have to admit I was disappointed that there will be no Triple Crown this year....again.  Probably the best decision of the day was the decision I made on Thursday when I started handicapping.  I had given a lot of thought to simply playing Churchill Downs - because I would be handicapping that track anyway - along with the big Belmont card which featured no less than ten graded stakes worth seven million dollars, and maybe a couple races from Gulfstream.  But the more I thought about it, I wanted to handicap Monmouth to see if there were any 40% Club plays there; and then I thought about how I have done well at Arlington, so I decided to make it a full out assault on the races!  You'll see later why that was a good thing!  The first score of the day came in the morning from "across the pond" in the Group 1 Epsom Derby.  I had this race on my radar and was going to put it on my selection sheet, but I read this week they were expecting torrential rains.  Well, I am not going to play a 1 1/2 mile Group 1, without past performances when I don't know how a full field of 16 or more will handle the going.  So when Keith and I were getting ready to leave I turned on HRTV to record the races through the day, and they were broadcasting live from Epsom, with ten minutes until post of the Derby.  The weather was clear and sunny with firm going!  OK then, I'm in!  I put my bet in, "prime time" on Australia.  He was a three-year-old son of champion Galileo, who had won this Epsom Derby and the champion mare Ouija Board, who had won the Epsom Oaks!  Talk about bloodlines!  He was ridden patiently in mid pack while in the clear until they made the right hand turn into the lane and then he was let loose.  He accelerated to the front, collared the new leader and edged clear with each closing stride to be clear by at least two on the wire. 

 

Australia paid $4.60 and I was off to a near $50 start to the day!  We got to Gulfstream and I discovered the one race I'd missed I'd run third, then watched my pick in the Easy Goer Stakes run 2nd at 2/1.  I missed in the Grade 2 Brooklyn when Cat Burglar stalked the lead, had his head in front a hundred yards out, but was outfinished in a blanket finish, third.  Missed in the opener at Churchill when Crescent Shore as fifth at 2/1. I just knew I'd get my first "live win" in the Grade 3 Jaipur Invitational going six furlongs on the turf with my top pick Ben's Cat.  This 26x winner was typically running in five and five and a half furlong races, but he had built a 3/2-1-0 record at this distance and the field was a mere 2-for-6 combined!  He was let go at a generous 2/1, and while he was checked twice on the turn he was not bothered enough - I didn't think - to compromise his chances, he was a non-threatening fourth.  I was finally able to get into the winner's circle, not once but twice from Monmouth Park.  In the 2nd Big Dealer was a Monmouth 40% Club with Paco Lopez up for Edwin Broome.  But here's the interesting fact - I would NEVER have bet this race if I didn't have my Monmouth Handicapper book....the field was a combined 0-for-83 since 2012, including Big Dealer!  WOW.  But Lopez gunned right to the front and it was over before it even got started.  I tripled the bet so  got back over $25.  Missed at Calder and again at Curchill before one of remarkable races I've ever seen took place.  In the third at Monmouth it was my second Mth 40% Club play with Exclusive Sarah - again it was Lopez who when given a leg up by trainer David Jacobson he wins an amazing 80% of the time!  right to the front and dueling from the rail as the 1/2 favorite with a price horse.  Neither gave an inch and then at about the furlong pole the outside horse hip-checked 'Sarah who seemed to bounce off the rail, nearly clipped heals and then her nose went to the ground!  Meanwhile Lopez nearly was completely thrown of the left side!  The "winner" drew off easily, and though I knew there would be a DQ it wouldn't help my fallen horse and rider.....but wait, Lopez had somehow gotten back into the saddle, and though Exclusive Sarah was nearly at a dead stop, Lopez gave her the "let's go" and she took off for the wire.  They were so far ahead of the field that he was still a length clear of the show runner on the line!  You have to watch the video in the recap at the bottom of the page.  Obvious DQ and I'm put up for my second winner of the day!  Inside to watch the Grade 2 Woody Stevens and I gave Social Inclusion the nod, and as they loaded into the gate I told Jim Anderson (who had joined us at the races) that today we'd find out if Social Inclusion was truly a stakes runner, or was he going to return to South Florida and be a "good" local stakes horse.  He was an even third at 1/1.  He won't get my support in any big races from now on.  Outside moments later for the 2nd at Gulfstream where I joined my good friends Jeff & Gina Nelson.  I liked Discreet Ed in this non-winners of three lifetime race.  He was a little too far back I thought; then was late in getting going.  But he was flying late, but just a touch too late.  But, hold on a tic.....Gina's horse had been battling on the rail and had checked!  The photo finally came up that I was second on the wire, so now it came down to the Inquiry & Objection decision.  They watched it and replayed it over and over.  I told Jim that if I had the winner I would be saying there was no way he should be taken down.  But since I had Discreet Ed, and they kept looking at it I was hopeful.  Finally YES, they put me on top!  My second win in a row via DQ!  Amazing! As I hustled inside the 3rd at Calder was swinging into the lane and I had bet Flash Alert.  He was consistently in front and gave way late, but today he was THE LONE speed and the race was only 5 1/2 furlongs.....now or never!  I figured he'd be the favorite but he was so heavily bet I doubled the bet.  He was clear by six in mid-stretch but was JUST able to hold on to win!

After missing with my next Churchill play, it was time for the Grade 1 Acorn at Belmont and My Miss Sophia was the clear favorite and I thought one of the most probable winners on the card.  She had been six clear of the field in the Kentucky Oaks and the only triple Beyer in the field.  Trained by Todd Plecher and ridden by Javier Castellano sealed the deal.  I had $30 to win on the 4/5 favorite.  She stalked the pace to the top of the lane and then just stopped.  Wow.....I am NOT having a good day at Belmont.  Again my pick at Churchill failed to fire.  Red SOlid Perfect was a triple investment for me at a big 7/1.  Pressed the pace and I thought I might have a big win on my hands, but then faded to be fourth.  I finally scored again at Gulfstream when Curlin's Princess was EASILY best as the prohibitive 1/5 favorite.  Never in doubt, but I was happy to cash the ticket.  Enjoyed the winner with Jeff & Gina.  At Belmont the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps promised to be the most exciting race of the day when three Grade 1 champions - Beholder, Close Hatches, and Princess of Sylmar - faced off.  I thought I had thebest pick with the Princess who was the home-town heroine and would benefit from a likely pace duel.  As they came through the lane Close Hatches surge to the front and Princess of Sylmar was flying on the outside.....PHOTO FINISH!

I had twenty to win on Princess, soooo close, sigh.....at 9/5 I would have cashed for nearly $60.  No time to cry over spilled milk, back to Arlington where I backed former student Rosemary Hoeister, Jr. who was riding Repeat Afleet.  This colt was in a three-way photo last out by pressing the pace.  Today Rose took him off the pace behind a 50-1 longshot.  Made his move on the turn, opened up and was GONE.  WHOOOOO HOOOOO!  I missed with Uno Concerto who was the lone runner dropping out of open company.  He as 7/1 and I'd doubled the bet.....surged to the front and opened up, I thought I had a real big winner, but he was outfinished, third.  But at Santa Anita I won again with a Bob Baffert first time starter Holiday Camp who was much the , thebest. 

Missed at Gulfstream, then again at Churchill.....man I am struggling there, and at Belmont.  Cashed for the third time at Monmouth when Long Blooming Rose wired an allowance field, for Paco Lopez, again.  And I scored yet again at Calder, my tenth win on the day when Ducduc was completely out of the television screen as the field moved through the far turn, and then inhaled the field in spite of rallying six wide off the turn.  In the Grade 1 Just A Game I backed longshot Unlimited Budget who was 19/1 and pressing the leader into the stretch .... I had $10 to win and thought this would be the "daymaker" for me.  Faded to be ninth.  But then, finally I went on a real tear.  At Monmouth I scored again, and with Paco Lopez again when he was on Logan Street on the turf.  It was a thrilling stretch duel, and not until the final two jumps that she had her head in front.  At Arlington I scored with Sleepy who was the 3/5 favorite.  But he'd had a "WOW" performance off a thirteen month layoff when he pressed a wicked :45.3 pace - that's sizzling over the Arlington poly track - and drew off.  Today he went right to the front and never looked back, a very handy winner, my twelfth on the day.  I came right back to win the 8th at Calder when I tripled the bet on Leveraged Loan.  Sent out by Kirk Ziadie who is winning at an amazing 64% at the meet.  This one dueled to the stretch and drew off like the even-money favorite she was.....cashed for another $30. 

Three Calder winners:  Flash Alert / Ducduc / Leveraged Loan

Ten minutes later it was time for my BET OF THE DAY.....the Grade 1 Met Mile.  I had shared my selections with my son Jeff and he said he was sorry but didn't see it - he was betting on Goldencents.  I thought Palace Malic was SO much the obvious winner - his last two figures (113-114) were better than ALL career numbers of the field.  The only concern was that he was on the rail in a twelve horse field and would have to work out a trip.  And sure enough as they came through he far turn he was pinned on the rail, but finally a seam opened between runners.  Did he get out in time to catch Goldencents?  At he 16th pole I wasn't sure, but then Palace Malice hit another gear and he exploded to the wire. 

I had $100 to win and the generous 6/5 price paid $4.70.  I cashed for over $230!  I turned to Keith and he said, "I pounded him,"  - how much I asked, "$400 to win!"  But the ironic part was he then told me that that almost brought him back to even.  He's been throwing money around today! 

Moments later they were in the gate at Arlington....we were on the turf sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs in an entry-level allowance.  I had picked Fleet Encounter who had five turf sprints with figures of 76-79-79-76-79 with a local record of 4/3-1-0.  He was in a 2x allowance last out and dropped into this entry level spot with a lot of pace to set him up.  Sure enough, as they turned for home the pace had been hot and he was in mid pack, but he burst through and blew by the field to score at a nice $7.20...

Nearly $20 more for me!  In the feature at Churchill, the Grade 3 Mint Julep Miz Ida was put too far out of it and ran into trouble as well - poor ride.  Santa Anita down the hill, Smart Journey was clearly the quickest of the field and sent off at 1/1, but was taken off the pace and never fired.  Again at Churchill I failed to produce a winner at a nice 7/2.  In the Grade 1 Manhattan at Belmont I supported Seek Again who had just failed to beat 2x Horse of the Year Wise Dan last out and was proven at this distance.  The crowd sent him off as the tepid 5/2 favorite.  He was right there with every opportunity to score in deep stretch, but was outfinished, third.  I was also out of the winner's circle at Gulfstream and Monmouth when Rock Alex missed at 1/2 and Sweetsoutherndame became one of the few 40% Club on the Jersey Shore not to win.  My last chance to notch a victory in Louisville came in a Maiden Special turf event.  Claymaker had not fired in first try over the grass, but last time out while finishing fourth he was only beaten 3/4 of a length while flying through the final fraction in a swift :23.3.  I thought he'd get a good set up and might just be a price.  He was 9/2 as they left the gate, and the pace was honest.  As they turned for home he was in perfect position and accelerated out of the pack to win going away! 

The nice $11.40 payoff meant I would cash for nearly $60!  Here we go!  Puddifoot was trying the turf for the first time in Monmouth's Crank It Up Stakes.  Stretching out in distance made him a 40% play, and the crowd sent him off at 1/1.....after sitting just off the pace he faded to be 6th.  But I bounced right back at Santa Anita when Alpha Bullet ran to his paired figure Double BSF Advantage.  Even though he shifted out after crossing the main track following the sprint down the hill, he was still the quickest to the wire! 

My 17th win of the day produced a nice $8.00 mutual payoff and I was collecting another $20.  Finally, the Belmont Stakes where California Chrome went off at 4/5.  He was well placed, but it looked like he was uncomfortable on the rail.  He got free on the turn and it looked like he was poised to accelerate away from the field, but instead he was running with the leaders.  Could not get the job done, fourth.  My buddy Jeff Nelson always wants to know what longshot I like in these big races.  I had tipped him off to Ride on Curlin in the Preakness and he made a couple hundred dollars betting him across the board.  So for today's event I told him that if I were betting the race and California Chrome were not in the race, my long shot would be Commissioner who left the gate at 27/1.  He surprisingly went to the lead and as they turned for home he was in front!  In the final 16th, he was STILL in front!  One of my two "other" contenders, Tonalist surged on the wire to JUST nip him on the wire.  But the place payoff on #8-Commissioner paid over $23 and the show was over $13.  Jeff had placed a $150 Win-Place-Show bet so he was going to cash for nearly $3,000.  Well done Mr. Nelson!  Keith and I headed for home and I still had four races left on my sheet.  In the two races I had left at Santa Anita I was sixth as the 8/5 favorite and then looked like I might spring the upset at 6/1 in the finale, but couldn't finish it off.  But on the Belmont turf in the 12th race, European-based Ghurair was allowed to go off at 2/1.  I was concerned with his closing style when the half mile was in a glacial :51 and change.  As the field turned for home my only hope was that European runners typically fire from off the pace even with a slow pace, but the front runner looked gone.  Then Ghurair opened up and wore down the leader in the final strides!  WHOOO HOOO - the payoff of $6.80 led to my final paycheck of $34.00, and my 18th win. 

As I said at the beginning, I was so fortunate I did NOT stick with my original plan because for the day I was ONE-for-nine at Churchill and ONE-for-ten in the big Belmont Stakes.  It would have been a long, LONG day for me.  But by playing well over forty races I was able to win for the day in spite of the poor efforts at Churchill and Belmont.  For the day my numbers: 

Another winning day, with a huge win percentage!  Gotta love the races!  Check out the highlight video:



June 5 - 6

Friday - Back To Winning Ways

June 5:  Thursday deserves a sentence, at best....0-for-6 with the beaten favorites at 1/5, 1/2, 4/5 and three fair prices.....that about says it all.  Ok, on to Friday.

Today was a day much most of the days this summer at Churchill Downs.  First post for the Friday card today was at 2:45, and with plans to go down to a waterfront restaurant to share a birthday dinner with our friend Kate Dwyer, I only got to see my first two selections.  I won the opener, but did not think it offered me enough of an edge to bet.  In the second it was a Churchill Downs 40% Club play with jockey Rosie Napravnik riding for Steve Asmussen, a 48% winning proposition.  Incompatible was making her second career start today and cutting back to six furlongs.  She stalked the leader into the turn and cruised to the lead.  When she opened up at the top of the lane it seemed like I had my first winner of the week, but she weakened in the final furlong and was second.  I won the third race, but again, like the opener I did not think the horse provided me with enough of an edge to bet.  In the fourth I liked Mr. Swagger who had the "magic triangle" in his past performances.  What this looks like is....... 

With this kind of pattern you see improvement along two lines - first, three back finish to last race finish; and secondly from the pace call three back to the stretch call, to the finish in the last three races.  These two patterns form a triangle and often indicate a forward move is coming next out.  This was the case with Mr. Swagger....he was bet down to 9/5 from his 5/2 morning line, but he trailed throughout, finishing fifth of five.  We headed down to the restaurant and had a good time, not returning until after 9 pm.  We watched the Miami Heat in Game One of the NBA finals - interesting that the arena in San Antonio had it's air conditioning shut down!  Close game to the end.  When I finally got to the replays I started with race six, but when I couldn't find the #3 I discovered my pick on the turf had scratched.  On to the 7th where I liked One King's Man.  In his first start of a layoff he'd been a troubled second.  He was claimed away by trainer Brad Cox, who's enjoying a great meet.  Cox wins at a sharp 30% first off the claim.  The fact he moved him up today in class and turned him back from two turns to a one-turn mile all were positive signs to me.  Sure enough, he tracked the trio of leaders in fifth, move four-wide on the turn and then edged clear through the final 16th of a mile.  He was 4/5, and I only had the minimum, but it was the first win of the week - I'll take it.  I'll skip the 8th for the moment, which was my "BEST" of the day and go to the finale where the third of three selections was Kamchatka who had been a dominant winner for Michael Maker - and as my selection last out.  Today he was a CD 40% Club .... when Maker starts a horse for the third time, or more he wins at a big 50%.  That is huge!  So even though Kamchatka was moving up from an $8K 2L at seven furlongs to an $8K "beaten" claimer stretching to a mile, he was a double investment for me.  He dueled to the turn, put that rival away was clear and was just able to hold on at the wire!  Whew! 

OK, back to the 8th and my "BEST" of the day.  I wrote in my analysis that General Jack looks REALLY hard to go against being sent out for the CEO of the CD 40% Club, Michael Maker qualifies on two different angle - Rosie Napravnik up, winning at a 41% clip and today was the third start off a 30+ day layoff has resulted in a winner 64% of the time!  We were going a flat mile on the turf and he'd drawn the rail.  Rosie had him stalking on the rail, tipped him off on the turn and blew away widening his lead with every stride while never being asked.  I've seen favorites at the meet who were much less likely to win go off at 3/5 or less, but somehow the crowd allowed General Jack to leave the gate at a generous 3/2! 

I was rewarded with a nice $50 payoff and for the day I cleared a profit of over $30 while winning three of five!  That is more like it, and gives me some momentum for tomorrow's big Belmont day's action.

June 1

One-for-Five.....LEPAROUX- Grrrrr

On the Sunday card I had only five plays.  No prime time bets.  I had a win in my fist bet of the day when Overton square drew off impressively at 8/5.  But then ran second twice and third once.  I had two what I thought were winners but jockey Julian Leparoux, as he always does, did not deliver.  In the eighth he looked to be the speed on the rail going 8 1/2 furlongs.  And he easily cruised in front through a very pokey :25 and change opening quarter.  But then Leparoux wrangled him back to fourth!  What the......tried to rally into that soft pace, why?  Why give up the lead?  And was no better than third.  And in the ninth he moved SEVEN wide on the turf course into the stretch with dead aim on the leader.  I knew I was about to score at 5/2 with a double investment and finish 2-for-5 with a profit.  But, and maybe it's my own personal bias, but in the final 16th as he approached the lead it looked to me that he simply hand rode Shift Colors like he was five in front, and finished a close 2nd without ever going by the leader.  No whip, no riding with passion or enthusiasm, just gliding his hands back and forth.....wow.  But I calculated my June numbers and they were the best I've ever had in ten years of handicapping!

May 31

A GREAT WAY TO CLOSE OUT MAY

ELEVEN - FOR - TWENTY-ONE!

I didn't want to have an all-out assault on the races today, preferring to save that for next Saturday, Belmont Day, I had limited selections from three tracks besides my Churchill picks.  But I had a lot of stakes races on my list as it was Summit of Speed Preview Day at Calder, Big Apple Day at Belmont for NY-state breds, Penn Mile Day at Penn National, and there was a stakes race at Monmouth to go with the two added money events under the Twin Spires.  So with the limited selections I decided to play online at home with the races spaced at 45 minutes to over an hour between races.  I got started at Monmouth in their opener where I liked El Botas who was a Monmouth 40% Club pick for trainer Jorge Navarro.  El Botas was making his first start off a long layoff, and that is one of the six angles that apply for club membership for Navarro.  In addition El Botas was first off the claim, a 31% angle for the barn.  He dueled to the top of the lane then forged to the front and as they ran through the "greatest stretch on the Jersey shore" he drew off to score as the 4/5 favorite!  Right back on the undercard at Calder.  As I wrote in my analysis, Chelsea Brook would be CLEARLY the odds-on choice.  Dropping from open nw1x allowance company into this claiming event for the bottom-of-the-barrel $6.25K and in a "beaten" condition he looked to be an easy winner.  Toss in the fact that trainer Kirk Ziadie was winning at a big 44% overall and 53% with jockey Edgar Zayas, well, it was merely a case of not falling off the horse.  A miserly 1-9 as he left the gate he wired the field while NEVER being asked.  A closer was running late that made it a bit interesting by Zayas didn't move a muscle and the horse won for fun.  I made a big $2.00 on my "prime time" investment.   But, a win is a win.  Next on the list was the first of the stakes races at New York.  Kharafa and Lubash had faced each other in seven races and Lubash got the best of the two last time.  But I thought there were reasons to believe a turn-around in outcome was going to happen today.  I liked that Javier Castellano would be riding today AND that he had a close-up running style that would get the jump on the late-running Lubash. 

The race went exactly as I envisioned and they finished one-two with my pick winning at a generous $6.80.  I cashed for nearly $35 in my third win of the day!  I missed for the first time - surprising!  Stealth Speed stalked to the turn, took a narrow lead much like El Botas had, but, instead of pulling off he could not hold off the top two and finished third.  Next up was the U Can Do It at Calder.  The favorite figured to be R Free Roll who was 7/4-1-0 at Calder and 7/3-1-1 at today's six furlong distance.  The Ziadie-Zayas connection was in play, but best of all she seemed to be the LONE speed.  I planned to triple the bet.  But when the betting opened she hung at an underlaid 1-9!  I checked out the multi-race payoffs and the Pick-3 would have paid $2!  The double and exactas all reflected that she was being pounded across the board.  That kind of action combined with my initial analysis led me to double my initial investment play and I went "BET OF THE DAY" style with a $30 win bet.  The gates opened and after three jumps she was clear by two.  This race is over.  In as dominant a race as the earlier Chelsea Brook race she was never threatened and easily won by daylight.  As they crossed the wire track announcer called the final time as a new stakes record! 

Best of all, her odds floated up to 2/5 and my winning bet was for over $40....easy money!  The next race produced the biggest, and honestly the lone surprise of the day.  Effie Trinket was CLEARLY the best filly/mare in the Mount Vernon.  She was dropping out of back-to-back thirds in Grade 2 company off the layoff into this restricted, state-bred $100K spot.  And before the layoff, she was missed by half a length in another Grade 2.  She was Dave Liftin's "BEST" of the day, and mine.  She rated in fifth, moved four wide with a bold and obvious winning move, ready to swoop by the front runner.  But as they hit the furlong marker she was no longer gaining ground and despite one final surge she could not catch the winner....second.  Not good.  Right back in the fifth at Calder I had reservations about Dad'z Laugh, who was exiting a stakes win at Calder - when he was my 4,900th win - and on paper he looked much the best on figures and class.  But I wondered if he could produce the same kind of effort twice in a row, and on a different surface.  But I bet the facts, and honestly didn't see any alternative.  Second.....should have looked more carefully at the race before they went to the gate as the winner was a 5/2 contender with the same Ziadie and Zayas team working their magic again.  But thanks to the Monmouth Handicapper I bounced back in the next.  Hillswick was the 5/2 third choice in a claiming sprint on the Jersey Shore.  As an 8-year-old he had the back class, but the question was could he bring that to the table today?  Two, not one, angles qualified for Monmouth 40% Club action for trainer David Jacobson.  First, this was HIllswick's second race within fifteen days(40%), but even better it was the second start of the meet, a huge 50% winning angle.  He dueled three wide down the backstretch and was wide through the turn and into the stretch.  It didn't look like he would get there, but in the final 100 yards he surged to JUST be up in time! 

The very fair $7.60 price led to a near $60 payoff as I'd tripled the Club play.  At Calder I wondered if Scandalous Act would be ready to fire having not run since the early November Breeders' Cup.  But she had swept the Calder Florida Stallion Stakes, and was MUCH the class of the field.  I thought today was the day to get a fair price, and it was as she went off at 5/2.  She finished willingly, but when racing behind four horses through the turn the rider was indecisive on what to do, so when he finally made his choice it was too late to get to the winner.  Look for her to score on Summit Day I think.....in a big way.  I got my first win in Louisville in the seventh - my first pick there - when Pappacat was sent off at another fair price (5/2) as a Churchill 40% Club play.  Trainer Gary Simms was winning at better than 40% for the meet, period, but he was a Club member with long layoff types like this one.  Pappascat stalked he pace three wide into the stretch and then burst out of the pack and won as MUCH the best.  Cashed for nearly $20 with the $7.80 payoff.  I missed two in a row when Dominant Jeannes was wide throughout at 6/5 in a turf sprint at Monmouth, and the Giancarlo - my "upset of the day" - was away slowly and made a mild belated rally to be fifth in the Unbridled Stakes.  The next was my "BEST" of the day at Churchill.  Much like Emollient last weekend, Delauney looked to be off form and a play-against favorite.  But to me you could make legitimate excuses for is four losses in his last five starts, and I believed today he would be back on top of his game to score decisively.  In his last he was close to a pace he could run with, but the six furlong sprint of 1:08 was much quicker than he would like going seven furlongs - and six furlongs is probably his best game, today's distance.  In his previous he was second behind a loose-on-the-lead white-hot runner that simply ran away from the field; three back he won with the kind of number he typically ran.  Four back he was in a Grade 1 and was under pressure through swift fractions, and five back he was second best after breaking slowly behind a loose-on-the-lead winner, but had earned a typical 102 figure.  In addition to all this he was 4-for-5 at Churchill Downs, I thought maybe we'd get the 2/1 program odds, and I went in "prime time."  He was 8/5 as they went to the gate and I was delighted, but quickly 1/1 as they loaded, and by the time he led them into the turn he was down to 3/5.  But I knew, I KNEW after he stalked the pace into the turn under a stranglehold from top rider Rosie Napravnik that I had the winner.  As they turned for home he was in front by daylight and any hope of catching him was out the window when he accelerated away from the field.  Won EASILY, motored down in an impressive score in the Grade 3 Aristides.  WHOOO HOOO. 

Cashed for nearly $35 for my seventh win on the day!  Rose Brier looked like a standout on the turf at Monmouth on figures and form, dropping out of a Grade 3 into allowance company.  But I didn't wager a lot because it was bothersome to me that she had not won her entry level allowance yet and was facing nw2x company.  Moved boldly on the turn but could not hold off the deep closer.  The most amazing thing about the race was the winner paid over $30 and was ridden by the leading rider Paco Lopez....wow.  But I came back with a vengeance to score in three straight stakes races!  The finale at Churchill was the Opening Verse going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  Regally Ready is a Breeders' Cup champion, but had made his name as a turf sprinter.  Yet, over the last couple years trainer Steve Asmussen had successfully  stretched him out to be an effective route runner.  Case in poin was when he was a good second in a Grade 2 going a mile at Santa Anita in February.  I thought he looked like the lone speed here for Rosie Napravnik - and that qualified him as a 40% Club play.  But as they shot into the first turn a longshot insisted on the lead.  As the world-class rider she is, Rosie sat patiently "leading" the field comfortably.  When they hit the turn she let her mount glide to the lead and then draw off easily to score.  Unfortunately like Delauney the crowd saw what I did and bet him down to 3/5. 

I'll take the $30 and change as I made him my co-best and invested "prime time!"  At Monmouth it was the six furlong John J. Reilly Handicap.  Even though speed had been holding throughout the day I liked Partyallnightlong to rally from just off the pace.  The fact that Paco Lopez was up for trainer Eddie Broome - making this another 40% Club play - was an added plus.  AND, 'Party loves this track with seven wins from twelve local starts!  But what I liked most was there appeared to be a ton of speed in here to set up his strong finishing ability.  And I was right about the pace, the leaders dueled through a sizzling :21.3 opening quarter and :44.2 half mile going head-and-head.  One of the dueling pace setters was the 4/5 favorite who I did NOT like, but the other - who had dueled from the opening bell while two wide throughout was PARTYALLNIGHTLONG!  Oh no!  Trust in Paco.  As they came out of the turn and he began to edge away, he took a look over his shoulder to see if he needed to really ask for more.....he had a TON of horse!  Oh yes!  Drew off by daylight as MUCH the best.  The triple investment led to a big $55 and change pay off as he paid $7.40.  Giving money away at the Shore!  Less then a half hour later I watched as Zivo put together one of the most amazing late runs of the year.  I'd been impressed by his last out score in allowance company.  He looked that day like he'd wear down the leaders and grind out a win in mid-stretch, but he found a new gear and burst to the wire....that impressed me.  But today he was well back at the top of the stretch and looked to be hopelessly out of it, but then he cam with giant strides and was JUST up in time!  AMAZING!  And I had my tenth winner of the day! 

Zivo had gone off at 6/5 o I cashed for over $35.  All I had left now on my sheet were the four big races from Penn National.  But I was so confident in three of the four picks that I strongly considered a Pick-4 ticket of 1 - All - 4 - 4.  But then I realized, I never hit these kind of tickets, and in spite of only being a $12 bet I passed.  Good thing because Ready To Act, the 7/5 favorite was 3rd in the opener (my alternative second choice was also no where to be found.....smart move to NOT bet the pick-4!).  In the Pennsylvania Governor's Cup - a turf sprint - Sensible Lady was away slowly at 10/1 but was flying late....too late, 4th.  My "BET of the DAY" here, and my son Jeff's only other play, was with Last Gunfighter.  he had run six triple Beyers in his last seven starts, the only non-triple was a 99 when he had a lot of trouble.  The field he was facing had no graded wins (he was a multiple graded stakes winner) and only a couple had hit the triple figure level.  Looked MUCH the best for trainer Chad Brown and Javier Castellano.  But as they ran the race, and turned for home he was having a hard time getting to the long-time leader. And a longshot was trying to split horses.  It was a head-bobbing finish - who won?  I wasn't sure even after watching slow-motion replays.  Then the INQUIRY sign went up.  They must be looking at the "other" horse in the photo because as I watched the head-on replay I'd run straight as an arrow.  But then came the announcement, the horse who'd tried to split the top two objected to ME!  They kept showing the replay over and over again, and I'm like, "I don't see anything, why are they still looking at this?  And what is the photo result?"  Finally it was announced that I had won the photo, but still the Inquiry was underway.  Nearly ten minutes before the announcement, "Ladies and Gentlemen," - dramatic pause - " after reviewing the films the stewards have found.......no reason to change the order of finish!"  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

Cashed for another $30 and change with my "prime time" bet!  In the featured $500K Penn Mile I went against Bobby's Kitten, who was the obvious choice.  But he was a front runner and there looked to be other speed, including a stable mate.  I had a sneaking suspicion that trainer Chad Brown and jockey Javier Castellano would like to teach him to learn to rate, and would try that today....but as the favorite in a big race like this I wasn't willing to back that chance.  I went with Global View who'd been second to Bobby at Tampa, but had scored last out in the Grade 2 American on Oaks Day at Churchill and prompted Gary Stevens to say he'd be a Grade 1 winner.  Good enough for me as the alternative play!  I was right, there was other speed, and I was right that Bobby rated.  I was wrong that he could not do this - and the moderate pace did me no favors as a closer. When Bobby moved on the turn and opened up by five, it was clear the best I could do was finish second, which I did.  I'll get him at longer distances.  Still for the day I was a perfect 3-for-3 at Churchill Downs, I had won SEVEN stakes races, and for the day I finished 11-for-21 with a profit of nearly $65!  A great way to close down May!