May 31

A GREAT WAY TO CLOSE OUT MAY

ELEVEN - FOR - TWENTY-ONE!

I didn't want to have an all-out assault on the races today, preferring to save that for next Saturday, Belmont Day, I had limited selections from three tracks besides my Churchill picks.  But I had a lot of stakes races on my list as it was Summit of Speed Preview Day at Calder, Big Apple Day at Belmont for NY-state breds, Penn Mile Day at Penn National, and there was a stakes race at Monmouth to go with the two added money events under the Twin Spires.  So with the limited selections I decided to play online at home with the races spaced at 45 minutes to over an hour between races.  I got started at Monmouth in their opener where I liked El Botas who was a Monmouth 40% Club pick for trainer Jorge Navarro.  El Botas was making his first start off a long layoff, and that is one of the six angles that apply for club membership for Navarro.  In addition El Botas was first off the claim, a 31% angle for the barn.  He dueled to the top of the lane then forged to the front and as they ran through the "greatest stretch on the Jersey shore" he drew off to score as the 4/5 favorite!  Right back on the undercard at Calder.  As I wrote in my analysis, Chelsea Brook would be CLEARLY the odds-on choice.  Dropping from open nw1x allowance company into this claiming event for the bottom-of-the-barrel $6.25K and in a "beaten" condition he looked to be an easy winner.  Toss in the fact that trainer Kirk Ziadie was winning at a big 44% overall and 53% with jockey Edgar Zayas, well, it was merely a case of not falling off the horse.  A miserly 1-9 as he left the gate he wired the field while NEVER being asked.  A closer was running late that made it a bit interesting by Zayas didn't move a muscle and the horse won for fun.  I made a big $2.00 on my "prime time" investment.   But, a win is a win.  Next on the list was the first of the stakes races at New York.  Kharafa and Lubash had faced each other in seven races and Lubash got the best of the two last time.  But I thought there were reasons to believe a turn-around in outcome was going to happen today.  I liked that Javier Castellano would be riding today AND that he had a close-up running style that would get the jump on the late-running Lubash. 

The race went exactly as I envisioned and they finished one-two with my pick winning at a generous $6.80.  I cashed for nearly $35 in my third win of the day!  I missed for the first time - surprising!  Stealth Speed stalked to the turn, took a narrow lead much like El Botas had, but, instead of pulling off he could not hold off the top two and finished third.  Next up was the U Can Do It at Calder.  The favorite figured to be R Free Roll who was 7/4-1-0 at Calder and 7/3-1-1 at today's six furlong distance.  The Ziadie-Zayas connection was in play, but best of all she seemed to be the LONE speed.  I planned to triple the bet.  But when the betting opened she hung at an underlaid 1-9!  I checked out the multi-race payoffs and the Pick-3 would have paid $2!  The double and exactas all reflected that she was being pounded across the board.  That kind of action combined with my initial analysis led me to double my initial investment play and I went "BET OF THE DAY" style with a $30 win bet.  The gates opened and after three jumps she was clear by two.  This race is over.  In as dominant a race as the earlier Chelsea Brook race she was never threatened and easily won by daylight.  As they crossed the wire track announcer called the final time as a new stakes record! 

Best of all, her odds floated up to 2/5 and my winning bet was for over $40....easy money!  The next race produced the biggest, and honestly the lone surprise of the day.  Effie Trinket was CLEARLY the best filly/mare in the Mount Vernon.  She was dropping out of back-to-back thirds in Grade 2 company off the layoff into this restricted, state-bred $100K spot.  And before the layoff, she was missed by half a length in another Grade 2.  She was Dave Liftin's "BEST" of the day, and mine.  She rated in fifth, moved four wide with a bold and obvious winning move, ready to swoop by the front runner.  But as they hit the furlong marker she was no longer gaining ground and despite one final surge she could not catch the winner....second.  Not good.  Right back in the fifth at Calder I had reservations about Dad'z Laugh, who was exiting a stakes win at Calder - when he was my 4,900th win - and on paper he looked much the best on figures and class.  But I wondered if he could produce the same kind of effort twice in a row, and on a different surface.  But I bet the facts, and honestly didn't see any alternative.  Second.....should have looked more carefully at the race before they went to the gate as the winner was a 5/2 contender with the same Ziadie and Zayas team working their magic again.  But thanks to the Monmouth Handicapper I bounced back in the next.  Hillswick was the 5/2 third choice in a claiming sprint on the Jersey Shore.  As an 8-year-old he had the back class, but the question was could he bring that to the table today?  Two, not one, angles qualified for Monmouth 40% Club action for trainer David Jacobson.  First, this was HIllswick's second race within fifteen days(40%), but even better it was the second start of the meet, a huge 50% winning angle.  He dueled three wide down the backstretch and was wide through the turn and into the stretch.  It didn't look like he would get there, but in the final 100 yards he surged to JUST be up in time! 

The very fair $7.60 price led to a near $60 payoff as I'd tripled the Club play.  At Calder I wondered if Scandalous Act would be ready to fire having not run since the early November Breeders' Cup.  But she had swept the Calder Florida Stallion Stakes, and was MUCH the class of the field.  I thought today was the day to get a fair price, and it was as she went off at 5/2.  She finished willingly, but when racing behind four horses through the turn the rider was indecisive on what to do, so when he finally made his choice it was too late to get to the winner.  Look for her to score on Summit Day I think.....in a big way.  I got my first win in Louisville in the seventh - my first pick there - when Pappacat was sent off at another fair price (5/2) as a Churchill 40% Club play.  Trainer Gary Simms was winning at better than 40% for the meet, period, but he was a Club member with long layoff types like this one.  Pappascat stalked he pace three wide into the stretch and then burst out of the pack and won as MUCH the best.  Cashed for nearly $20 with the $7.80 payoff.  I missed two in a row when Dominant Jeannes was wide throughout at 6/5 in a turf sprint at Monmouth, and the Giancarlo - my "upset of the day" - was away slowly and made a mild belated rally to be fifth in the Unbridled Stakes.  The next was my "BEST" of the day at Churchill.  Much like Emollient last weekend, Delauney looked to be off form and a play-against favorite.  But to me you could make legitimate excuses for is four losses in his last five starts, and I believed today he would be back on top of his game to score decisively.  In his last he was close to a pace he could run with, but the six furlong sprint of 1:08 was much quicker than he would like going seven furlongs - and six furlongs is probably his best game, today's distance.  In his previous he was second behind a loose-on-the-lead white-hot runner that simply ran away from the field; three back he won with the kind of number he typically ran.  Four back he was in a Grade 1 and was under pressure through swift fractions, and five back he was second best after breaking slowly behind a loose-on-the-lead winner, but had earned a typical 102 figure.  In addition to all this he was 4-for-5 at Churchill Downs, I thought maybe we'd get the 2/1 program odds, and I went in "prime time."  He was 8/5 as they went to the gate and I was delighted, but quickly 1/1 as they loaded, and by the time he led them into the turn he was down to 3/5.  But I knew, I KNEW after he stalked the pace into the turn under a stranglehold from top rider Rosie Napravnik that I had the winner.  As they turned for home he was in front by daylight and any hope of catching him was out the window when he accelerated away from the field.  Won EASILY, motored down in an impressive score in the Grade 3 Aristides.  WHOOO HOOO. 

Cashed for nearly $35 for my seventh win on the day!  Rose Brier looked like a standout on the turf at Monmouth on figures and form, dropping out of a Grade 3 into allowance company.  But I didn't wager a lot because it was bothersome to me that she had not won her entry level allowance yet and was facing nw2x company.  Moved boldly on the turn but could not hold off the deep closer.  The most amazing thing about the race was the winner paid over $30 and was ridden by the leading rider Paco Lopez....wow.  But I came back with a vengeance to score in three straight stakes races!  The finale at Churchill was the Opening Verse going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  Regally Ready is a Breeders' Cup champion, but had made his name as a turf sprinter.  Yet, over the last couple years trainer Steve Asmussen had successfully  stretched him out to be an effective route runner.  Case in poin was when he was a good second in a Grade 2 going a mile at Santa Anita in February.  I thought he looked like the lone speed here for Rosie Napravnik - and that qualified him as a 40% Club play.  But as they shot into the first turn a longshot insisted on the lead.  As the world-class rider she is, Rosie sat patiently "leading" the field comfortably.  When they hit the turn she let her mount glide to the lead and then draw off easily to score.  Unfortunately like Delauney the crowd saw what I did and bet him down to 3/5. 

I'll take the $30 and change as I made him my co-best and invested "prime time!"  At Monmouth it was the six furlong John J. Reilly Handicap.  Even though speed had been holding throughout the day I liked Partyallnightlong to rally from just off the pace.  The fact that Paco Lopez was up for trainer Eddie Broome - making this another 40% Club play - was an added plus.  AND, 'Party loves this track with seven wins from twelve local starts!  But what I liked most was there appeared to be a ton of speed in here to set up his strong finishing ability.  And I was right about the pace, the leaders dueled through a sizzling :21.3 opening quarter and :44.2 half mile going head-and-head.  One of the dueling pace setters was the 4/5 favorite who I did NOT like, but the other - who had dueled from the opening bell while two wide throughout was PARTYALLNIGHTLONG!  Oh no!  Trust in Paco.  As they came out of the turn and he began to edge away, he took a look over his shoulder to see if he needed to really ask for more.....he had a TON of horse!  Oh yes!  Drew off by daylight as MUCH the best.  The triple investment led to a big $55 and change pay off as he paid $7.40.  Giving money away at the Shore!  Less then a half hour later I watched as Zivo put together one of the most amazing late runs of the year.  I'd been impressed by his last out score in allowance company.  He looked that day like he'd wear down the leaders and grind out a win in mid-stretch, but he found a new gear and burst to the wire....that impressed me.  But today he was well back at the top of the stretch and looked to be hopelessly out of it, but then he cam with giant strides and was JUST up in time!  AMAZING!  And I had my tenth winner of the day! 

Zivo had gone off at 6/5 o I cashed for over $35.  All I had left now on my sheet were the four big races from Penn National.  But I was so confident in three of the four picks that I strongly considered a Pick-4 ticket of 1 - All - 4 - 4.  But then I realized, I never hit these kind of tickets, and in spite of only being a $12 bet I passed.  Good thing because Ready To Act, the 7/5 favorite was 3rd in the opener (my alternative second choice was also no where to be found.....smart move to NOT bet the pick-4!).  In the Pennsylvania Governor's Cup - a turf sprint - Sensible Lady was away slowly at 10/1 but was flying late....too late, 4th.  My "BET of the DAY" here, and my son Jeff's only other play, was with Last Gunfighter.  he had run six triple Beyers in his last seven starts, the only non-triple was a 99 when he had a lot of trouble.  The field he was facing had no graded wins (he was a multiple graded stakes winner) and only a couple had hit the triple figure level.  Looked MUCH the best for trainer Chad Brown and Javier Castellano.  But as they ran the race, and turned for home he was having a hard time getting to the long-time leader. And a longshot was trying to split horses.  It was a head-bobbing finish - who won?  I wasn't sure even after watching slow-motion replays.  Then the INQUIRY sign went up.  They must be looking at the "other" horse in the photo because as I watched the head-on replay I'd run straight as an arrow.  But then came the announcement, the horse who'd tried to split the top two objected to ME!  They kept showing the replay over and over again, and I'm like, "I don't see anything, why are they still looking at this?  And what is the photo result?"  Finally it was announced that I had won the photo, but still the Inquiry was underway.  Nearly ten minutes before the announcement, "Ladies and Gentlemen," - dramatic pause - " after reviewing the films the stewards have found.......no reason to change the order of finish!"  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

Cashed for another $30 and change with my "prime time" bet!  In the featured $500K Penn Mile I went against Bobby's Kitten, who was the obvious choice.  But he was a front runner and there looked to be other speed, including a stable mate.  I had a sneaking suspicion that trainer Chad Brown and jockey Javier Castellano would like to teach him to learn to rate, and would try that today....but as the favorite in a big race like this I wasn't willing to back that chance.  I went with Global View who'd been second to Bobby at Tampa, but had scored last out in the Grade 2 American on Oaks Day at Churchill and prompted Gary Stevens to say he'd be a Grade 1 winner.  Good enough for me as the alternative play!  I was right, there was other speed, and I was right that Bobby rated.  I was wrong that he could not do this - and the moderate pace did me no favors as a closer. When Bobby moved on the turn and opened up by five, it was clear the best I could do was finish second, which I did.  I'll get him at longer distances.  Still for the day I was a perfect 3-for-3 at Churchill Downs, I had won SEVEN stakes races, and for the day I finished 11-for-21 with a profit of nearly $65!  A great way to close down May!