June 5 - 6

Friday - Back To Winning Ways

June 5:  Thursday deserves a sentence, at best....0-for-6 with the beaten favorites at 1/5, 1/2, 4/5 and three fair prices.....that about says it all.  Ok, on to Friday.

Today was a day much most of the days this summer at Churchill Downs.  First post for the Friday card today was at 2:45, and with plans to go down to a waterfront restaurant to share a birthday dinner with our friend Kate Dwyer, I only got to see my first two selections.  I won the opener, but did not think it offered me enough of an edge to bet.  In the second it was a Churchill Downs 40% Club play with jockey Rosie Napravnik riding for Steve Asmussen, a 48% winning proposition.  Incompatible was making her second career start today and cutting back to six furlongs.  She stalked the leader into the turn and cruised to the lead.  When she opened up at the top of the lane it seemed like I had my first winner of the week, but she weakened in the final furlong and was second.  I won the third race, but again, like the opener I did not think the horse provided me with enough of an edge to bet.  In the fourth I liked Mr. Swagger who had the "magic triangle" in his past performances.  What this looks like is....... 

With this kind of pattern you see improvement along two lines - first, three back finish to last race finish; and secondly from the pace call three back to the stretch call, to the finish in the last three races.  These two patterns form a triangle and often indicate a forward move is coming next out.  This was the case with Mr. Swagger....he was bet down to 9/5 from his 5/2 morning line, but he trailed throughout, finishing fifth of five.  We headed down to the restaurant and had a good time, not returning until after 9 pm.  We watched the Miami Heat in Game One of the NBA finals - interesting that the arena in San Antonio had it's air conditioning shut down!  Close game to the end.  When I finally got to the replays I started with race six, but when I couldn't find the #3 I discovered my pick on the turf had scratched.  On to the 7th where I liked One King's Man.  In his first start of a layoff he'd been a troubled second.  He was claimed away by trainer Brad Cox, who's enjoying a great meet.  Cox wins at a sharp 30% first off the claim.  The fact he moved him up today in class and turned him back from two turns to a one-turn mile all were positive signs to me.  Sure enough, he tracked the trio of leaders in fifth, move four-wide on the turn and then edged clear through the final 16th of a mile.  He was 4/5, and I only had the minimum, but it was the first win of the week - I'll take it.  I'll skip the 8th for the moment, which was my "BEST" of the day and go to the finale where the third of three selections was Kamchatka who had been a dominant winner for Michael Maker - and as my selection last out.  Today he was a CD 40% Club .... when Maker starts a horse for the third time, or more he wins at a big 50%.  That is huge!  So even though Kamchatka was moving up from an $8K 2L at seven furlongs to an $8K "beaten" claimer stretching to a mile, he was a double investment for me.  He dueled to the turn, put that rival away was clear and was just able to hold on at the wire!  Whew! 

OK, back to the 8th and my "BEST" of the day.  I wrote in my analysis that General Jack looks REALLY hard to go against being sent out for the CEO of the CD 40% Club, Michael Maker qualifies on two different angle - Rosie Napravnik up, winning at a 41% clip and today was the third start off a 30+ day layoff has resulted in a winner 64% of the time!  We were going a flat mile on the turf and he'd drawn the rail.  Rosie had him stalking on the rail, tipped him off on the turn and blew away widening his lead with every stride while never being asked.  I've seen favorites at the meet who were much less likely to win go off at 3/5 or less, but somehow the crowd allowed General Jack to leave the gate at a generous 3/2! 

I was rewarded with a nice $50 payoff and for the day I cleared a profit of over $30 while winning three of five!  That is more like it, and gives me some momentum for tomorrow's big Belmont day's action.