June 7

Belmont Stakes Day

A BIG Day at the races for me, but I have to admit I was disappointed that there will be no Triple Crown this year....again.  Probably the best decision of the day was the decision I made on Thursday when I started handicapping.  I had given a lot of thought to simply playing Churchill Downs - because I would be handicapping that track anyway - along with the big Belmont card which featured no less than ten graded stakes worth seven million dollars, and maybe a couple races from Gulfstream.  But the more I thought about it, I wanted to handicap Monmouth to see if there were any 40% Club plays there; and then I thought about how I have done well at Arlington, so I decided to make it a full out assault on the races!  You'll see later why that was a good thing!  The first score of the day came in the morning from "across the pond" in the Group 1 Epsom Derby.  I had this race on my radar and was going to put it on my selection sheet, but I read this week they were expecting torrential rains.  Well, I am not going to play a 1 1/2 mile Group 1, without past performances when I don't know how a full field of 16 or more will handle the going.  So when Keith and I were getting ready to leave I turned on HRTV to record the races through the day, and they were broadcasting live from Epsom, with ten minutes until post of the Derby.  The weather was clear and sunny with firm going!  OK then, I'm in!  I put my bet in, "prime time" on Australia.  He was a three-year-old son of champion Galileo, who had won this Epsom Derby and the champion mare Ouija Board, who had won the Epsom Oaks!  Talk about bloodlines!  He was ridden patiently in mid pack while in the clear until they made the right hand turn into the lane and then he was let loose.  He accelerated to the front, collared the new leader and edged clear with each closing stride to be clear by at least two on the wire. 

 

Australia paid $4.60 and I was off to a near $50 start to the day!  We got to Gulfstream and I discovered the one race I'd missed I'd run third, then watched my pick in the Easy Goer Stakes run 2nd at 2/1.  I missed in the Grade 2 Brooklyn when Cat Burglar stalked the lead, had his head in front a hundred yards out, but was outfinished in a blanket finish, third.  Missed in the opener at Churchill when Crescent Shore as fifth at 2/1. I just knew I'd get my first "live win" in the Grade 3 Jaipur Invitational going six furlongs on the turf with my top pick Ben's Cat.  This 26x winner was typically running in five and five and a half furlong races, but he had built a 3/2-1-0 record at this distance and the field was a mere 2-for-6 combined!  He was let go at a generous 2/1, and while he was checked twice on the turn he was not bothered enough - I didn't think - to compromise his chances, he was a non-threatening fourth.  I was finally able to get into the winner's circle, not once but twice from Monmouth Park.  In the 2nd Big Dealer was a Monmouth 40% Club with Paco Lopez up for Edwin Broome.  But here's the interesting fact - I would NEVER have bet this race if I didn't have my Monmouth Handicapper book....the field was a combined 0-for-83 since 2012, including Big Dealer!  WOW.  But Lopez gunned right to the front and it was over before it even got started.  I tripled the bet so  got back over $25.  Missed at Calder and again at Curchill before one of remarkable races I've ever seen took place.  In the third at Monmouth it was my second Mth 40% Club play with Exclusive Sarah - again it was Lopez who when given a leg up by trainer David Jacobson he wins an amazing 80% of the time!  right to the front and dueling from the rail as the 1/2 favorite with a price horse.  Neither gave an inch and then at about the furlong pole the outside horse hip-checked 'Sarah who seemed to bounce off the rail, nearly clipped heals and then her nose went to the ground!  Meanwhile Lopez nearly was completely thrown of the left side!  The "winner" drew off easily, and though I knew there would be a DQ it wouldn't help my fallen horse and rider.....but wait, Lopez had somehow gotten back into the saddle, and though Exclusive Sarah was nearly at a dead stop, Lopez gave her the "let's go" and she took off for the wire.  They were so far ahead of the field that he was still a length clear of the show runner on the line!  You have to watch the video in the recap at the bottom of the page.  Obvious DQ and I'm put up for my second winner of the day!  Inside to watch the Grade 2 Woody Stevens and I gave Social Inclusion the nod, and as they loaded into the gate I told Jim Anderson (who had joined us at the races) that today we'd find out if Social Inclusion was truly a stakes runner, or was he going to return to South Florida and be a "good" local stakes horse.  He was an even third at 1/1.  He won't get my support in any big races from now on.  Outside moments later for the 2nd at Gulfstream where I joined my good friends Jeff & Gina Nelson.  I liked Discreet Ed in this non-winners of three lifetime race.  He was a little too far back I thought; then was late in getting going.  But he was flying late, but just a touch too late.  But, hold on a tic.....Gina's horse had been battling on the rail and had checked!  The photo finally came up that I was second on the wire, so now it came down to the Inquiry & Objection decision.  They watched it and replayed it over and over.  I told Jim that if I had the winner I would be saying there was no way he should be taken down.  But since I had Discreet Ed, and they kept looking at it I was hopeful.  Finally YES, they put me on top!  My second win in a row via DQ!  Amazing! As I hustled inside the 3rd at Calder was swinging into the lane and I had bet Flash Alert.  He was consistently in front and gave way late, but today he was THE LONE speed and the race was only 5 1/2 furlongs.....now or never!  I figured he'd be the favorite but he was so heavily bet I doubled the bet.  He was clear by six in mid-stretch but was JUST able to hold on to win!

After missing with my next Churchill play, it was time for the Grade 1 Acorn at Belmont and My Miss Sophia was the clear favorite and I thought one of the most probable winners on the card.  She had been six clear of the field in the Kentucky Oaks and the only triple Beyer in the field.  Trained by Todd Plecher and ridden by Javier Castellano sealed the deal.  I had $30 to win on the 4/5 favorite.  She stalked the pace to the top of the lane and then just stopped.  Wow.....I am NOT having a good day at Belmont.  Again my pick at Churchill failed to fire.  Red SOlid Perfect was a triple investment for me at a big 7/1.  Pressed the pace and I thought I might have a big win on my hands, but then faded to be fourth.  I finally scored again at Gulfstream when Curlin's Princess was EASILY best as the prohibitive 1/5 favorite.  Never in doubt, but I was happy to cash the ticket.  Enjoyed the winner with Jeff & Gina.  At Belmont the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps promised to be the most exciting race of the day when three Grade 1 champions - Beholder, Close Hatches, and Princess of Sylmar - faced off.  I thought I had thebest pick with the Princess who was the home-town heroine and would benefit from a likely pace duel.  As they came through the lane Close Hatches surge to the front and Princess of Sylmar was flying on the outside.....PHOTO FINISH!

I had twenty to win on Princess, soooo close, sigh.....at 9/5 I would have cashed for nearly $60.  No time to cry over spilled milk, back to Arlington where I backed former student Rosemary Hoeister, Jr. who was riding Repeat Afleet.  This colt was in a three-way photo last out by pressing the pace.  Today Rose took him off the pace behind a 50-1 longshot.  Made his move on the turn, opened up and was GONE.  WHOOOOO HOOOOO!  I missed with Uno Concerto who was the lone runner dropping out of open company.  He as 7/1 and I'd doubled the bet.....surged to the front and opened up, I thought I had a real big winner, but he was outfinished, third.  But at Santa Anita I won again with a Bob Baffert first time starter Holiday Camp who was much the , thebest. 

Missed at Gulfstream, then again at Churchill.....man I am struggling there, and at Belmont.  Cashed for the third time at Monmouth when Long Blooming Rose wired an allowance field, for Paco Lopez, again.  And I scored yet again at Calder, my tenth win on the day when Ducduc was completely out of the television screen as the field moved through the far turn, and then inhaled the field in spite of rallying six wide off the turn.  In the Grade 1 Just A Game I backed longshot Unlimited Budget who was 19/1 and pressing the leader into the stretch .... I had $10 to win and thought this would be the "daymaker" for me.  Faded to be ninth.  But then, finally I went on a real tear.  At Monmouth I scored again, and with Paco Lopez again when he was on Logan Street on the turf.  It was a thrilling stretch duel, and not until the final two jumps that she had her head in front.  At Arlington I scored with Sleepy who was the 3/5 favorite.  But he'd had a "WOW" performance off a thirteen month layoff when he pressed a wicked :45.3 pace - that's sizzling over the Arlington poly track - and drew off.  Today he went right to the front and never looked back, a very handy winner, my twelfth on the day.  I came right back to win the 8th at Calder when I tripled the bet on Leveraged Loan.  Sent out by Kirk Ziadie who is winning at an amazing 64% at the meet.  This one dueled to the stretch and drew off like the even-money favorite she was.....cashed for another $30. 

Three Calder winners:  Flash Alert / Ducduc / Leveraged Loan

Ten minutes later it was time for my BET OF THE DAY.....the Grade 1 Met Mile.  I had shared my selections with my son Jeff and he said he was sorry but didn't see it - he was betting on Goldencents.  I thought Palace Malic was SO much the obvious winner - his last two figures (113-114) were better than ALL career numbers of the field.  The only concern was that he was on the rail in a twelve horse field and would have to work out a trip.  And sure enough as they came through he far turn he was pinned on the rail, but finally a seam opened between runners.  Did he get out in time to catch Goldencents?  At he 16th pole I wasn't sure, but then Palace Malice hit another gear and he exploded to the wire. 

I had $100 to win and the generous 6/5 price paid $4.70.  I cashed for over $230!  I turned to Keith and he said, "I pounded him,"  - how much I asked, "$400 to win!"  But the ironic part was he then told me that that almost brought him back to even.  He's been throwing money around today! 

Moments later they were in the gate at Arlington....we were on the turf sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs in an entry-level allowance.  I had picked Fleet Encounter who had five turf sprints with figures of 76-79-79-76-79 with a local record of 4/3-1-0.  He was in a 2x allowance last out and dropped into this entry level spot with a lot of pace to set him up.  Sure enough, as they turned for home the pace had been hot and he was in mid pack, but he burst through and blew by the field to score at a nice $7.20...

Nearly $20 more for me!  In the feature at Churchill, the Grade 3 Mint Julep Miz Ida was put too far out of it and ran into trouble as well - poor ride.  Santa Anita down the hill, Smart Journey was clearly the quickest of the field and sent off at 1/1, but was taken off the pace and never fired.  Again at Churchill I failed to produce a winner at a nice 7/2.  In the Grade 1 Manhattan at Belmont I supported Seek Again who had just failed to beat 2x Horse of the Year Wise Dan last out and was proven at this distance.  The crowd sent him off as the tepid 5/2 favorite.  He was right there with every opportunity to score in deep stretch, but was outfinished, third.  I was also out of the winner's circle at Gulfstream and Monmouth when Rock Alex missed at 1/2 and Sweetsoutherndame became one of the few 40% Club on the Jersey Shore not to win.  My last chance to notch a victory in Louisville came in a Maiden Special turf event.  Claymaker had not fired in first try over the grass, but last time out while finishing fourth he was only beaten 3/4 of a length while flying through the final fraction in a swift :23.3.  I thought he'd get a good set up and might just be a price.  He was 9/2 as they left the gate, and the pace was honest.  As they turned for home he was in perfect position and accelerated out of the pack to win going away! 

The nice $11.40 payoff meant I would cash for nearly $60!  Here we go!  Puddifoot was trying the turf for the first time in Monmouth's Crank It Up Stakes.  Stretching out in distance made him a 40% play, and the crowd sent him off at 1/1.....after sitting just off the pace he faded to be 6th.  But I bounced right back at Santa Anita when Alpha Bullet ran to his paired figure Double BSF Advantage.  Even though he shifted out after crossing the main track following the sprint down the hill, he was still the quickest to the wire! 

My 17th win of the day produced a nice $8.00 mutual payoff and I was collecting another $20.  Finally, the Belmont Stakes where California Chrome went off at 4/5.  He was well placed, but it looked like he was uncomfortable on the rail.  He got free on the turn and it looked like he was poised to accelerate away from the field, but instead he was running with the leaders.  Could not get the job done, fourth.  My buddy Jeff Nelson always wants to know what longshot I like in these big races.  I had tipped him off to Ride on Curlin in the Preakness and he made a couple hundred dollars betting him across the board.  So for today's event I told him that if I were betting the race and California Chrome were not in the race, my long shot would be Commissioner who left the gate at 27/1.  He surprisingly went to the lead and as they turned for home he was in front!  In the final 16th, he was STILL in front!  One of my two "other" contenders, Tonalist surged on the wire to JUST nip him on the wire.  But the place payoff on #8-Commissioner paid over $23 and the show was over $13.  Jeff had placed a $150 Win-Place-Show bet so he was going to cash for nearly $3,000.  Well done Mr. Nelson!  Keith and I headed for home and I still had four races left on my sheet.  In the two races I had left at Santa Anita I was sixth as the 8/5 favorite and then looked like I might spring the upset at 6/1 in the finale, but couldn't finish it off.  But on the Belmont turf in the 12th race, European-based Ghurair was allowed to go off at 2/1.  I was concerned with his closing style when the half mile was in a glacial :51 and change.  As the field turned for home my only hope was that European runners typically fire from off the pace even with a slow pace, but the front runner looked gone.  Then Ghurair opened up and wore down the leader in the final strides!  WHOOO HOOO - the payoff of $6.80 led to my final paycheck of $34.00, and my 18th win. 

As I said at the beginning, I was so fortunate I did NOT stick with my original plan because for the day I was ONE-for-nine at Churchill and ONE-for-ten in the big Belmont Stakes.  It would have been a long, LONG day for me.  But by playing well over forty races I was able to win for the day in spite of the poor efforts at Churchill and Belmont.  For the day my numbers: 

Another winning day, with a huge win percentage!  Gotta love the races!  Check out the highlight video: