July 25

It's Paco Lopez Day!

WOW - what a day Paco Lopez had!  He's running away with the riding title this summer, but today he put on a real show.  Fortunately for me I had him on four of my five selections today.  This was by far one of the VERY BEST days at the Jersey Shore track since I began my handicapping project on the 4th of July weekend, and I am hoping it is a precursor to the way the weekend will go when I am on track!  In the opener I doubled the bet on Longing for Quiet.  In this first race of the week, Longing was the first Monmouth Park 40% Club play of the day and week.  The trainer was Edwin Broome, and he's a club member with one angle and one angle only......when Paco Lopez rides.  So I doubled the bet.  As the betting opened up the crowd was pounding a horse down to 3/5 odds.  Who is this guy?  I checked my analysis, and he didn't even make my top three!  I looked at the Racing Form I'd downloaded and I still didn't see it.  This is one of the benefits of the "Monmouth Handicapper" compiled by Jim Mazur.  I might have passed the race because Longing for Quiet wasn't a standout on any handicapping angle EXCEPT the club play.  The 3/5 favorite went to the front as they went into the clubhouse turn.  But Paco had Longing for Quiet in perfect striking position.  As they hit the turn the favorite was being hard ridden but Lopez shook the reins and it was all over!  Longing for Quiet drew off with authority under a hand ride!  WHOOO HOOO! 

The nice payoff of $7.00 meant I was $35 to the good after just one race!  I think it's going to be a good day!  In the second I went against Lopez.  My pick was Charlie Bull and he was well backed, leaving the gate as the 1/1 favorite.  Right to the front, but he ran way too fast I thought, even as another MTH 40% Club play (first off the claim for Jorge Navarro - 52%!).  Into the lane a 7/1 runner caught him, but they dueled to deep stretch before the pace caught up with Charlie who was a courageous second.  The jockey of the winner - yep, Lopez and at a nice $16 payoff.  Sigh.....Right back in the third I liked Scatter Joy.  he looked like the clear speed of the race.  Typically he would put up sub-:22 quarters and :44 and change half miles.  Those numbers would make him L-O-N-G gone here.  He was the favorite but a mild one at 9/5.  Right to the front where he clicked off a :21.4 quarter and a :44.3 half.  When he crossed the line confidently in front under, yes, you guessed it, Paco Lopez again, he stopped the teletimer at a remarkable 1:08.1 - that's stakes quality time! 

The payoff of $5.60 again was generous I thought considering he looked like much the speed of the race.  No play in the 4th, but I was back into action in the 5th, a five furlong turf sprint.  Lucky Rascal was the play for me.  In retrospect I might have considered upping the bet.  The field was full of runners with no turf experience, Lucky Rascal (who was 20/1 in the DRF morning line, but left the gate at 2/1.....go figure, it's always that way) had the fact that he had the best connections - leading trainer Eddie Plesa, and leading jock, Lopez.  Right to the front and never looked back!  WOW, this was Lopez's fourth win from five mounts! 

The $6.00 mutual payoff meant I'd be cashing for another $15.  Passed both the 6th and the 7th before the last play on my sheet was the 8th.  We were going a mile on the dirt track in an Optional Claiming event.  Stand Proud, I thought was the perfect fit from a pace scenario.  There looked to be several speedsters in here and 'Proud probably was going to stalk the leader and get the jump on the closers.  Both the Monmouth analysts picked Bling's Express to wire the field.  After I heard their comments before race 1 I went back and re-examined the Form.  I just didn't think he'd get a clear lead.  So I made Stand Proud my "best" of the day by tripling the bet.  The race went just as I thought it would.....three of them dueled through the first turn, down the backstretch, and into the far turn.  Stand Proud sat a chilly fourth and advanced up the rail on the turn.  Bling's Express won the battle for the lead and poked a head in front entering the stretch.  Paco Lopez swung Stand Proud five wide by making a sharp right hand turn to get clear running and then he began to wear down the leader.  Caught him inside the final 100 yards and was edging clear late.  WHOOO HOOO. 

Not only was this great for me, but for Lopez who'd just won his SIXTH race from the first eight scheduled races on the Friday card.  WOW.  The pay off was a REMARKABLE $7.60 so with my triple investment I cashed for nearly $60!  WHAT A DAY!  Check out my numbers....... 

80% winners and over $75 in PROFIT!  It just goes to show you, as I've discovered over and over again since I began handicapping on a regular basis these past ten years.  You never know when you're going to have a big day.  It could be a day where you've handicapped half a dozen tracks and you're betting for six or seven hours on a major stakes day, or maybe - like today - it's just a Friday card and you only have five selections!  I am so hoping this momentum carries me through the weekend!  I leave tomorrow morning at 10:30 and am hoping to spend the second half of the day at Monmouth playing the races.  Then ALL DAY SUNDAY I will be in my new purple & black vest with bow tie sporting my fashion as I am on track for the fourteen race program of the 47th running of the Haskell Invitational!

July 24

Haskell Week - At The Spa (Virtually)

 

A good way to start off the BIG WEEK!  With Monmouth only running three days a week, I decided to handicap the Thursday card at Saratoga.  Partially I did this on the off chance that I'd head out to Gulfstream and cash my tickets from last weekend.  With both of the boys bringing home tickets, like me, I paid them out of my racing fund and now have nearly $200 in tickets to cash.  So, I thought I might cash those to take to Monmouth this weekend.  But in the end I only had four horse on my sheet and they were scattered around the card.  So I stayed home and played online; which also gave me a chance to analyze all of the five stakes races from Monmouth for the upcoming weekend. 

In the fourth at Saratoga, my first selection, I had Katie's Garden.  She'd run well in her first two starts in New York, then shipped out to California to break her maiden at Hollywood.  Right back to pick up her entry level allowance win - but that was in January, so she'd been off for some six months.  I thought rather than a sign of trouble, it was a sign of patient handling by trainer John Sherriffs.  Katie left the gate at 5/2, stalked the leaders and made her move on the turn.  She drew off with authority and paid a generous $7.30, so I cashed for nearly $20! 

In the fifth I had a Chad Brown filly.  Doubled the bet on her at 5/1, and she led into the lane, then backed up to be third.  My next pick wasn't for another 90 minutes, in the 8th where I picked Wholelotaroyalty, who was also Dave Liftin's "BEST" of the day.  He had strung together three straight wins and then was claimed by Michael Maker who raised him in class to the $50K level where he ran a good third.  Today he dropped back to $16K and look much the best.  At 9/5 he went right to the front, and looked well within himself into the turn.  But when the pressers and closers came a calling, he stopped and faded to fifth.  Booooo.  That was a "prime time" investment for me.  The last race on my sheet was the last race of the day and I'd tripled the bet on All Over Me.  He ran well in a maiden special turf sprint when given the chance to try grass three back.  He dropped into a spot like this around two turns and led into the lane.  Claimed away by Michael Maker 'Me was pushed up into a MSW event again and ran well considering.....he was three wide on both turns but was right with the leaders through the first part of the race.  The drop back into a claimer looked to be the trick I thought.  He stalked the leaders early, but on the first turn he blew it and floated some seven or eight wide, pushing a rival outwards to the nine or ten path.....that's not good.  But he recovered, stalked the leaders, and shot to a clear lead into the lane.  He had to hold on late, but he was the winner.  Then the announcement - INQUIRY!  And it involved me!  Many times I've heard the race analysts and some stewards who take part in a weekly HRTV segment talk about the key to a DQ is if the horse who fouls causes another to lose a potential placing.  As I watched this replay I didn't think that was the case.  And indeed the stewards agreed!  I WIN! 

As the 3/2 favorite he paid $5.10 (there's that rounding up again, thank you NYRA!).  And with my triple investment I cashed for nearly $40!  So for the day I was 4/2-0-1 with $50 invested and $56 returned!

July 20

Jaxson's Day!

All three of the boys were pretty worn out from the full day of racing / standing & walking all day, so Sunday was truly a "day of rest." But the highlights of the last day of racing were a winning day at Monmouth Park; I hit the winner of the Saratoga feature, the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks; and best of all we had a family outing to Jaxson's Ice Cream. It was the last day of the "Kids Weekend" where we had all three of the "children" together for the weekend as Brad had to head back to Orlando (taking our "grand-puppy") because of that whole "work thing." Luckily we get the two older kids through Wednesday.

At Monmouth I was third at 2/1 in the opener after dueling the length of the stretch.  Then in the 4th I was a non-factor at 23-1....that would have been nice.  I won the 6th with Yankee Fortune on the turf.  He had been a close second at the level last time out and with the jockey switch to top jock Paco Lopez it seemed to seal the deal.  He was the 8/5 favorite so I cashed for nearly $30.  Missed at 4/5 after dueling, taking the lead, and then weakening - a la Saturday's races - in the 7th.  Third at 3/2 after looking like the most likely winner in the 8th on the turf as Shenton Park was the only runner who had NOT faced 2-lifetime company.  But instead of going to the front he settled off a long priced leader who went all the way arund the track.....third for 'Park.  But then I cashed in the 9th when Bernadine was easily best at 7/5 - cashed for almost $25.  But Puddifoot disappointed in the featured Miss Woodford when Paco Lopez was gunning for his fifth win in a row.  So for the day I was 2-for-6 and made a WHOLE DOLLAR!  Hey, better than losing :)

I also had some side bets, three at Saratoga and one at Del Mar.  I was 8th in the opener at the Spa when a Pletcher first-time two-year-old ran to his 6/1 odds.  Then a very close second on the Saratoga turf before winning the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks, the Sunday Saratoga feature.  She was the lone graded winner in the field and she walked with it.  Then Summer Front continued to disappoint, second in the featured grade 2 at Del Mar.

 

 

July 19

CLEARLY, The B-E-S-T Day Of The Summer Racing Season!

No, this was not the day were I won the most races, nor the most money, but because the racing day experience was shared with both of my boys at my side all day.  As a Dad, who's a big racing fan, it just doesn't get any better than that.......period!  We headed out to the track a little before noon and as we approached the track I told both of the boys they were about to see the BIGGEST fountain in the UNIVERSE - not the state of Florida, not the US, not North America, not the planet, but the entire universe.  Brad, of course said several times over, "....pretty sure it's not the biggest fountain in the universe....." but then we rounded the corner an saw the "Flying Pegasus" fountain at Gulfstream which is still under construction.  The first words out of Brad's mouth were, "Oh my, I think that just MAY BE the biggest fountain in the universe!"  Dads....they always know best :) 

Flying Pegasus Under Construction

Flying Pegasus Artist's Rendering of Finished Fountain

We went outside to the rail and had one of the Gulfstream workers take our photo (see top of page).  Then we took the obligatory "selfie" of ourselves, to which the girls at home replied with their own "selfie." 

But now it was time to be serious and start the racing action!  The first race we had on our sheet was the opener at Saratoga.  It was a Maiden Special on the turf for two-year-olds.  The "automatic play" at Saratoga with 2yo is Todd Pletcher.  He's not nearly as effective with turf route maidens, but everyone knows this and so the price is always higher.....trust me, I have the stats, it's a profitable play!  The problem was there were TWO Todd Pletcher runners.  Either would have been "the play" if running alone, but they were not coupled so I had to pick.  I looked at every angle and in the end, even though Javier Castellano was "the go-to jockey at Gulfstream" and had won the riding title at Saratoga last summer, in both of those instances the former #1 man, John Velazquez had spent part of the meet injured.  The jockey-trainer win stats were higher with Velazquez AND his mount Mr. Discreet was the ONLY colt who had run over the Saratoga turf course, and he had three local works.  He was a healthy 4/1 and made a middle move, then faded to sixth.  The winner, of course, the "other" Pletcher colt and he paid over $11!  Wow.  All three of us lost.  Next up was the opener at Gulfstream, and I doubled the bet on English Bank over the grass.  He was sent off as the 3/5 favorite and went right to the front.....led to mid-stretch and faded to fourth.  Sigh.......Finally in the third play of the day Skirt Skate pressed the pace of the second on the Jersey Shore then drew off in hand in this maiden two-year-old sprint.  He was the 6/5 favorite, but I was happy to cash. 

I turned to Brad, who usually doesn't play every race - and I knew he'd played both the first and second races - and I said, "Please tell me you played that race also!"  And he nodded with a big smile on his face.  I asked, why did you play, and he replied, "I know you almost always win 33%, so when you lost the first two I thought you were due!"  As it turned out his plan was to play ALL 30+ races on the sheet.  No pressure on me to produce winners for the boys!  We ran third in the third race at Monmouth, then fifth at 5/2 after breaking poorly at Saratoga before it was time for the third race at Gulfstream. 

Orlyana Queen was my pick in this turf sprint.  She had nearly pulled off the 15/1 upset last time when nipped on the wire.  That day she had broken poorly and rushed to the front.  I figured a clean break and she'd be long gone.  She was a nice 9/2 when she did indeed break cleanly from the gate.  She was in front by daylight turning for home, but here came the favorite closing with every stride.....oh so close, PHOTO FINISH!  Yes, that is us on the OUTSIDE, #2, second.  Sigh....that would have been a nice score.  No worries, however as we made out way back inside for the 4th at Monmouth.  My pick was Distinctive Affair who was trained by Jorge Navarro.  Distinctive Affair was turning back from three route races to this six furlong distance.  He's won with 30% of those moves and with 56% of his runners with jockey Trevor McCarthy up.  Still, as 'Affair was fourth into the turn, I did not think we had a great chance.  The odds-on leader seemed long gone a they turned for home, but now we had the momentum.  We were nearly even at the furlong marker, and then the conditioning edge - from having run in those route races - paid off and we blew by! 

The best part, he was 7/2 at post time so my double up bet resulted in a pay off of nearly $50!  Our second win on the Jersey Shore!  The second at Arlington was our next and Piralu was 5/1 when he left the gate.....right to the front and clear turning for home.  The favorite was closing.....where's the wire!   Caught inside the final twenty yards, man!  But we bounced back in the 4th at Saratoga.  It was a two-year-old Maiden Special main track sprint.  I thought Blame Jim, a Todd Pletcher first time starter looked like the real deal, and he was being bet like it - 4/5 at post time.  I decided to up my play from a double investment to a triple!  I turned to Brad as they loaded in the gate and said, "he goes right to the front and never looks back!"  Jeff moved to a different monitor, he was not going to let the "other" Pletcher runner beat him (yes, just like the first race at Saratoga).  The race went just as I said, as Blame Jim wired the field!  Whoooo hooooo.  In the fifth at Monmouth we broke poorly and were checked into the stretch - fifth at 5/2.  At Arlington Hoodwinked stalked the leaders in a turf sprint, took over and was clear into the lane......only to be caught on the wire, AGAIN!  That's the third photo finish we've been involved in, and lost them all!  The fifth at Gulfstream drew us outside into the grandstands.  Our pick, #8 Saturday's For Fun was Ron Nicoletti's Best of the day.  He went off as the 4/5 favorite.  Stalked the leaders into the lane, surged past to be clear in mid-stretch.......and there came not one but two closers!  WHERE'S THE WIRE!  PHOTO finish.  Want to guess which one is ours, yes, the inside horse (photo at right) who was SECOND, AGAIN!  The sixth at Monmouth was the first Monmouth 40% Club play of the day.  The Louisiana Kid was coming back in eight days and trainer David Jacobson was a 40% winner with runners coming back in 15 days or less.  He stalked in fourth, found a seam up the rail into the lane, then looked like he'd lost his momentum at the furlong pole, but responded to the jockey's urging and kicked it into high gear to WIN! 

I had tripled the bet on my THIRD winner at Monmouth, but Jeff had gone in with a $50 investment.....that's my boy!  Next the sixth at Gulfstream and I tripled the bet on Another Big Cat.  He'd been a short-priced favorite the last time out, and I'd tripled the bet that day, and he led to the stretch and gave up the lead.  I was uneasy about picking him again, but his last THREE Byers were identical 60's and NO ONE in the field had ever run better than a 45 - you had to pick him.  So I tripled the bet.  He stalked the leader, saving energy for the stretch, moved easily to the front turning for home, opened up by daylight, and then......got caught again at 2/5 odds.  Wow.  At Arlington I tripled the bet on Line On You and he went off at 7/2.  Had to wait behind horses on the turn, split runners but wasn't good enough, and was third.  The Grade 3 Sanford Stakes for two-year-old colts was next at Saratoga and I wrote in my analysis that it SHOULD come down to Todd Pletcher's debut winner against three time winner Cinco Charlie, who'd won the Grade 3 Bashford Manor at Churchill last time out.  The two went at it through torrid splits from mid-turn to mid-stretch and then they were inhaled by TWO closers and he was third.  The 8th at Monmouth was next and I liked Here Comes Sal.  He'd won his debut on dirt, but then went three straight races in turf sprints.  Though competitive he was winless since that maiden win, here.  He was back on the dirt, got top rider Paco Lopez today and all three of us were on board!  He dueled to the top of the lane, and then.........handily in front to the wire!  HORRRAY! 

Our fourth win at Monmouth was even money, but my double investment led to a $20 payoff.  Missed at Gulfstream, again, and then came the best part of the afternoon.  We were on board for Lord Nelson's rallying win in the opener at Del Mar.  I'd doubled the bet on him and his payoff of $7 led to a $35 payoff!  The feature at Arlington was coming up on the monitors next, the Grade 3 Arlington Park Oaks.  Aurelia's Belle had been my top pick in the Grade 3 Regret last time out over the Churchill Downs turf.  She was flying late, interfered with by the winner in mid-stretch, and barely missed.  She was put up by DQ.  But she was a clear class play here, despite the fact it was on the main track.  But Arlington's synthetic surface often is kind to turf runners.  She stalked the pace to the turn, moved confidently to the lead and ran away through the lane!  WHOO HOOOO! 

Cashed for over $20 again!  Two in a row, and on to Saratoga where Pyrite Mountain was a Pletcher starter - first time after moving into his barn, they always run well.  A healthy 7/2 when they left the gate - he was three wide into the stretch and was flying to the wire trying to catch the leader.....PHOTO, AGAIN!  Yes, that's us on the outside (at left), in second again!  But less than ten minutes later we were watching them leave the gate at Monmouth.  Catch My Drift was my top pick.  He was a Monmouth Park 40% Club play coming out of the Chad Brown barn.  Brown doesn't run many horses at Monmouth, especially at this time of the year when he's based at Saratoga.  But over the last two summers he'd won runners off a 31-to-60 day layoff at a 42% rate.  Catch My Drift had last run, in his debut at Parx forty-one days ago, so it was a match.  Always tough to win first time against winners, but the "Club" angle was strong.  Then when I was handicapping I noted another Brown 40% Club angle.....when Chad Brown sent a runner into a dirt route he'd scored at an amazing 67% - that my friend's is impressive! I doubled the bet.  Jeff, feeling the surge we were on decided to play $20 to win.  As they moved down the backstretch the 3/5 favorite was loose on the lead and seemed to be running comfortably.  The problem - to me - with that guy was while he'd run a huge 82 figure in breaking his maiden last time out, but all his other numbers were in the 60s.  But he looked to be just cruising along turning for home, but then Catch my drift hit his best stride.  He accelerated and just B-L-E-W by the favorite!  Our FIFTH win at Monmouth! 

And the best part, he'd left the gate at an amazing 5/1!  The payoff of $12.60 led to a return of $63 to me and over $125 to Jeff.  We'd no longer high-fived each other on this BIG win than turned to head outside as the runners were moving close to the gate for the ninth at Gulfstream.  I doubled the bet on 9-Strongbow.  He was bet down to 8/5 favoritism and was mid-pack into the far turn before the jockey hit the "GO" button and Strongbow accelerated with dead aim on the leaders.  By the furlong marker he'd made the lead and was opening up.  Here came the late runners but they were too late!  Brad was jubilant - he'd won the 9th race with the #9 horse and sat in box seat number 9 :) 

I'd doubled the bet so I cashed for nearly $30.  And Jeff was most excited as he showed off a $50 win ticket!  We went out to the paddock and showed our winning tickets as we culminated a 4-out-of-5 streak.  What a great day! 

At Arlington we had the 8/5 favorite, Include the Aussie - fourth.  Then my "best" of the day was Alterite in the Grade 1 Diana at Saratoga.  I made her a "prime time" bet because I knew she'd be the best price I'd get this summer since she'd not run since being third in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf behind the best two European female turf runners.  Was she fit enough?  She made a strong move into the lane, but then ran out of steam and faded to 8th.  Sigh...... We left at this point to meet the rest of the family for steaks at Tropical Acres.  I'd cashed with 9-of-25, so the boys had had a good day.  But all three of his put money down on the remaining TWELVE races and looked forward to watching the replays after dinner once we got back to the house.  The first race we watched once we got home was the feature from Monmouth, The Desert Vixen Stakes going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  My pick was Patsy's Holiday.  One of the great things about handicapping is that finding the winner is so different in every race.  Sometimes the key is very subtle and it's an "art" to interpret all the data, then other times - like this feature race - it just seems to be so simple.  The nine fillies scheduled to face the starter today were made up of seven who had one win, or none, on the turf.  The other two had multiple wins, but only Patsy's Holiday had beaten winners multiple times......Patsy's Holiday.  She was trained by he best trainer in the country in Todd Pletcher AND she was two-for-three at today's distance.....duh.  She sat four or five off the leader into the turn, moved five wide and set sail for the wire.  she was getting to the leaders late and had all the momentum.  Pretty sure we were the winner though it was closer on the wire than I'd thought it would be, but we won!  The best part, again, was that for some reason the crowd dismissed her at 3/1. 

The $8.00 payoff meant I would cash for $40 and we're off to a good start on the late races!  We were a flat 5th at 3/1 in the Skip Trial at Gulfstream, but scored decisively in the 11th at Saratoga when All Included surged late to score as the 4/5 favorite. 

When we left the track and the boys were talking about how we might do in the late races I told them that there were many days like today where I'd had a good day, but then the late races were a series of disappointments; but there were other days where the winning continued, you just never knew!  So with two wins in our first three late bets I had high hopes.  But at Del Mar, our misfortune with photo finishes continued.......

We lost three more tight races to run the final total for the day to SEVEN photo finish losses.  For me, those losses meant a loss of a potential $150 in winnings!  It would have been one of the most glorious days of the summer on all fronts had those come in - oh so close.  We did win one more late race in the finale at Del Mar when our pick over the turf course, Burning Arch outfinished the favorite to score at a nice price of $8.20, getting me $41 and securing a winning day.  For the day, at Monmouth we were an amazing 6 wins from 8 selections for a profit (me) of over $140.  Overall I was 12-for-37, over 30% and made a flat bet profit of $9.25 :)  It was a great day .... just the boys hangin' together!

July 18

One of the B-E-S-T Days Of The Summer!

Opening Day At Saratoga

In addition to it being Opening Day at my most-favorite summer track, Saratoga, there were several other reasons that today has to go down as one of the best days of the Summer of 2014.....First, and MOST importantly today was THE DAY I'd been waiting for all summer, the day that all three of my kids would arrive for the weekend.  Don't get me wrong, I love my two daughter-in-laws so much, but, this weekend it was going to be the first time in I don't know how long that it would be just our kids and us!  Jeff was arriving from Croatia (where he, Cameron, and Antoinette had been visiting her family), Julie and Brad driving down from Orlando.  Second, and this was Kim's idea, we had invited our old hockey buddy Enzo to come over to dinner (with his wife).  When the kids were younger it was "what we did" as a family EVERY time they came over literally all year long - we played "kids vs. adults" in roller hockey, with the culmination being our version of a family Stanley Cup championship series.  Well, one day we were playing and this 20-something guy was watching us, so I skated over and asked if he wanted to play on the "adult" team.  We became best of friends with Enzo.  Now he's married with three little ones.  When we were sitting around looking at Jeff's newsletters (he'd type & print a weekly account of our games, and I'd saved them all) we were trying to remember how long ago this all took place.....SEVENTEEN years ago!  Wow.  So I got out jerseys - the adults were always the Florida Panthers and the kids were always the Mighty Ducks - and we posed for a throw-back team picture: 

And third, today was a winning day overall, at Monmouth, AND at Saratoga!  At Monmouth Park my first bet was in the second race, a maiden claiming sprint.  Moe's Dove Hunt was part of an entry, but he was the one I was betting - if he scratched, all bets were off.  They both ran and Moe was the winner after stalking the leader to the turn, then drew off.  His entry-mate closed late to be up in time to complete the exacta.  In my next selection on the card I doubled the bet on Dodging, going against the 4/5 favorite.  The favorite looked to have the best trip, sitting just off the longshot front runner, took over and opened up on the turn.  But Dodging, went off at a nice 5/2, had been stalking in fourth made his move.  He collared the favorite in deep stretch and edged clear to WIN! 

The healthy $7.60 payoff guaranteed a winning day on the Jersey Shore!  In the 6th I was on Killington, the 3/5 favorite on the turf.  Trailed early, moved strongly on the turn and opened up by two lengths in mid-stretch.....but was caught late, second in a photo finish.  Booooo.  In the last two selections on the card my pick ran poorly to be 8th in both races (at 3/5 - sigh - and at 3/1).  So for the day at Monmouth.....

5/2-1-0 - Bet $40 / Cashed $45.50 

Next, Saratoga.....fifth in the Spa Opener (not the way I was hoping to start the day here!).  The next race was the traditional opening day feature, the Grade 2 Schuylerville for two-year-old fillies.  Fashion Alert was my BET of the DAY.....she was trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez, so you know she'd be the favorite on just those facts.  But Pletcher, typically conservative with his placement of runners had sent out Fashion Alert for her MAIDEN DEBUT in the $100K Astoria Stakes at Belmont a month ago!  She broke behind the field, but rushed up to be in front by the time they'd gone a quarter of a mile and in spite of a swift pace, she ran away from the field to score.  She looked to be a special kind of filly, so I went "prime time" with my investment.  One other interesting side note - all of the Monmouth races and all the OTHER Saratoga races I watched later online on my twinspires replay station.  But the Schuylerville I was able to log into my phone to watch the replay on "Horseracing Now" app while we were at Miami International waiting for Jeff to clear customs.  She broke slowly again, but not as slowly and was quickly dueling with a longshot on the front end.  This was NOT GOOD as today the fillies were stretching out to six furlongs for the first time and you know all the riders were wanting to try to ration the speed......a quarter in :22.2 then a half in a swift :45 and change with the two dueling one head up and one head down.  As I watched I thought this sets up for a closer and as they turned for home the second choice was revving up from off the pace.  But as they hit the 16th pole Fashion Alert exerted her class and talent and pulled clear late!  WHOOO HOOOO! 

Granted the price was short, but as I've said many times, while I like making money (who doesn't?), I handicap to be right and in a case like this it is a "rush" to put my money on the line in relation to my confidence level and the reward is simply being right.  In the 4th doubled the bet on Mumtaazah who had been second to subsequent multiple graded stakes winning Onlyforyou in her debut in spite of breaking slowly.  She was 6/5 but never picked up her feet, a disappointing 7th.  In the seventh race we were on the turf and Joe's Blazing Aaron - a Ken & Sarah Ramsey front-runner - looked to be long gone without any challengers to him on the pace.  He set an easy pace under Javier Castellano through the far turn and when the presser made his move Joe dug in and was clear to the wire!  He too went off at a short price, but Id doubled the bet and collected nearly $20.  The score of the day came in my final bet, the very next race.  The 8th was a five and a half turf sprint and I liked Adventure Love.  Here's what I liked....she had built an 8/2-4-1 record in turf sprints IN EUROPE.  European turf runners nearly always find North American runners a notch below them.  When she made her first two starts in the US she'd been sent two turns at Gulfstream and understandably did not run well.  In her last she was in a $50K optional claiming event at Arlington and drew off with authority.  The last angle, today she got top Euro rider Frankie Dettori.  Right to the front, just as I thought, set a sizzling pace (:21.3 and :44.1) and then was the class of the race to win by daylight for Dettori's first-ever win at the Spa!  The one thing I did not expect was the price......

She paid a generous $7.80 and with my double investment I cashed for nearly $40 and was a winner on the day at the Spa: 

5/3-0-0  - Bet $65 / Cashed $82.00

And the day's totals:

10/5-1-0 - Bet $105 / Cashed $127.50 - PROFIT $22.50

July 17

Opening Day At Del Mar

 

It was a special Thursday racing day this week because it was Opening Day on the Pacific Coast where "the surf meets the turf!"  I handicapped the entire card and ended up with six races where I had plays.  Before I even started handicapping I KNEW, because it is always this way, that it would be difficult going on the day as the horses are all switching to a synthetic surface and coming from several different venues.  Especially with most coming from the speed-favoring Santa Anita (and the short Los Alamitos meet) to the closer-friendly Del Mar environment.  In the opener I had Fit To Rule.  He rated to the stretch moved strongly but could not get to the winner.....second.  In the third I doubled the bet on Hail Mary who looked like the lone speed on the inside.  But instead she let an 18/1 cheap speedster dictate the pace and chased her all the way around the track, second again.  In the fifth we were on the newly widened Jimmy Durante turf course I had Kokaltash, who was Group placed in two straight.  He was FLYING from last.....too late, third. I thought I had a good upset selection in the sixth but Zinvor was checked going down the backstretch and was never a factor.  In the 8th it was the featured Oceanside Stakes for three-year-olds on the turf.  With a full field of sophomores there were several front-end types and several closers, but very few stalkers.  With multiple front-runners I didn't want to be competing for the front and with so many in the field I wasn't willing to rely on racing luck and/or a good trip.  And as it happens my pick, Enterprising was a stalker/presser.  He normally is just off the speed and his perfect record of 3-for-3 at the mile distance.  He went off at a very generous 5/2.  But they'd no sooner left the gate than Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith dropped him back, back, back to the rear of the field before they even hit the first turn!  As they hit the far turn he was finally moving, swung at least six wide into the lane.  But he was gobbling up ground......was there enough ground for him to catch the leader....PHOTO!

 

 YES!  He paid a sweet $7.80 and I cashed for nearly $40.  In the 9th I went with Brad Free's "best" of the day Diamond of Blue.  He dueled into the stretch, then weakened to fifth at 6/5.  The single win in the feature nearly broke me even for the day and I considered that a "good day" because the payoffs for the races today (just as I expected):

 

1st:  $7.00

2nd:  $7.60

3rd:  $38.60

4th:  $8.80

5th:  $16.60

6th:  $19.60

7th:  $52.20

8th:  $7.80

9th:  $62.80

10th:  $10.60

July 13

Close Out The Week With Feature Race Score, Again

Closed out the weekend of racing by taking down the featured stakes race on the Sunday card for the second weekend in a row! I certainly hope that I can say the same thing in two weeks when I'm in Oceanport and will have been on track for the many life stakes races and the feature is the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational!

Today I had five selections on the eleven race card and it looked like it might be a big day as in the opener Oh So Gia went right to the front and never looked back to start the day on a winning note. In the second, a two-year-old event, I had the 3/5 favorite in Off Duty who stumbled slightly out of the gate but within the first 16th of a mile had recovered and opened up by two.....looked long gone again, until mid-stretch when caught late and had to settle for second. Never in it in the fourth but in the 9th Nasty Cat used his outside draw to get a garden trip behind two dueling front-runners. Into the lane the 9/5 favorite blew by and opened up, looking like he'd score under a hand ride......not so fast my friend as he weakened late and didn't even hit the board. So the day came down to the featured Klassy Briefcase Stakes. Ju Ju Eyeballs had everything over this field on paper, with one exception. As I wrote in my analysis the only question was how she'd come back off a layoff of some nine months! But she was a perfect 3-for-3 at the distance and 2-for-2 here on the Jersey Shore......sat off the pace, blew by and scored at a handsome $6.40! Tripled the bet, so I cashed for nearly $50 and a winning day!

July 12

In addition to my Monmouth Park selections for today I also had handicapped the Arlington card, not only because Arlington Million Preview Day is always a good card, but I will be in Chicago for the Arlington Million in August!  I also had handicapped the Delaware Park card as today was their big day featuring the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap and multiple Grade 1 winner Princess of Sylmar.  For the day I originally had eighteen selections, but scratches took out four of my selections, including my "BEST" of the day at Monmouth.  The racing started on the Jersey Shore with a juvenile sprint.  My top pick was Any Valid Saturday who'd flashed a best of 114 bullet for today!  He showed speed or a half mile then gave way, fading to fourth as the even money favorite.  Next up was a sprint from Delaware.  How Convnient was listed at 8/1 in the program and as I remarked in my analysis, "....would appear to be totally overlooked by the morning linemaker....."  He had won three straight while earning ascending Beyer figures, all of which were tops in the field.  The trainer was winning at 27% and rider 34% for the barn at a big $3.81 ROI.  While How Convenient had been away since October his lone race off a layoff had been an 11+ length blowout.  Too good to pass up.  Left the gate at 3/1 and ran away with it.  The $8.80 payoff earned me over $20!  Whooo hooo.  I missed on my next two picks, both from Monmouth.  Double Reverse pressed the lead as the 1/2 favorite into the turn and then weakened to third in the second race and in the fourth Happy Voyage was saving ground into the far turn over the turf course only to heck sharply and then was wide into the stretch.....third at 8/5.  But I picked up my second win of the day AND made a great decision!  The second at Arlington was an allowance race without conditions, which is the kind of race typically written for stakes winners who are making a comeback race.  This was the case as it featured Myositis Dan, who while not a stakes winner he'd been my top choice in the Gr 3 Derby Trial and had missed in a 3-way photo (#10 on outside), prompting Churchill Downs to use that photo as their web picture promoting their return to racing this fall....

Well, not only did he fit today's conditions, but even better, his three lifetime wins had all come in convincing fashion when racing over synthetic surfaces.....like Arlington.  AND, even better than that he ran his best races from off the pace, which is the typical profile of an Arlington winner.  I planned to triple the bet on him.  But when I went to make the investment I noted that there were two scratches.  So I upped the bet to "prime time" making him my "best" of the day at the Chicago oval.  He sat patently in the back, but not too far off the leaders, then made a sweeping move on the turn to collar the leaders at the 1/8th pole.  He kicked into high gear and was L-O-N-G gone on the wire!  WHOOO HOOOO! 

The generous payoff of $4.40 led to a payoff of nearly $45!  It was a good hour before my next pick, on the turf a Arlington where I had V V Goodnight.  She went off at 2/1 in this nw2x allowance spot.  She looked to be making a winning move heading into the turn, but had to wait for running room, when a seam opened she went for it and then was checked sharply, found another one and was checked sharply again.  It was remarkable she even got up for fourth.  Two scratches were next costing me a double investment in the Fort Delaware and my "BEST" at Monmouth in a maiden claiming sprint.  I had read online that the feature race today at Parx in Philadelphia - where I'd been for the Pennsylvania Derby a year ago last fall - was the Parx Dash going five and a half furlongs on the turf.  The three top finishers from a Grade 3 at Belmont on Belmont Stakes Day were all back today, but it was clear to me that at this shortened 5 1/2 panels instead of six (the Belmont race distance), Ben's Cat was a standout.  And how many times had this 23-time stakes winner lost back-to-back?  NONE!  So he was my "BEST" of the day there.  I was sooooooo delighted that he floated up to be the third choice at 5/2.  He was a little farther back than I would have wanted, but I trusted his regular rider Julian Pimentel to guide him.  They swung out wide into the lane and it looked like it would be close.  Ben accelerated late and...... PHOTO FINISH! 

I was pretty sure I'd won, but I was anxious for the "OFFICIAL" sign to go up.....and it did along with a payoff of $7.40!  Cashed for over $50 - how nice of a payoff would that have made on Black-Eyed Susans Day when I had $100 to win?  :)  At elaware I thought Winning Image was the clear lone speed of the Sweet and Sassy Stakes.  So did the crowd as they made her the 3/2 favorite.  Right to the front, but when the opening quarter, and half mile splits were posted - 21.3 and :44.0 - I knew she'd have to be pretty sharp to hold on.  She ran exceptionally well considering the final time was 1:08.4, but she was second best.  My next two picks were scratched.  I was fifth at Monmouth when Forgotten Prayers under Paco Lopez was a huge 3/1, took the lead into the stretch and I was smiling....only to see him give it up through the final furlong.  Then my BET of the Day in the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap.  Princess of Sylmar was 1/5 and I thought it was pretty obvious in a five horse field that she could NOT lay off the pace in the back.  She'd won at this distance in the Alabama last year by sitting just four off the leaders into the turn.  But today not only did she trail by six or more lengths, but the leader was loose on the lead while posting a :25 and :49 pace.  No catching that one, and in addition Princess of Sylmar just didn't seem to have the same punch.  She should have won that one.  It will be hard to show a profit today with that $50 loss I thought.  While they were about to load into the gate I realized they were into the gate in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap in Chicago.  I quickly switched screens to make the bet, but it was too late, they were off.  I was ok with that as my pick, War Dancer, had not inspired great confidence.  But on paper he looked best.  Glad I didn't get the bet in, he was a non-threatening third!  I finally got a win at Monmouth when Didn't Take It scored in a turf sprint allowance.  He was a Monmouth 40% Club play for trainer Jorge Navarro, but somehow was allowed to o off at 5/2.  Cashed for over $35.  The Grade 3 Stars & Stripes was next at Arlington, and I liked Horse-for-the-Course The Pizza Man.  He was 9/6-1-1 locally and was a good third here in this race last year.  He fit the track profile as a closer and he'd scored several times for me with a late run up the rail.  So when they broke out of the gate and his rider immediately took him to the lead I had my misgivings.  But a the fractions were posted - :53 for the half and a glacial 1:21 for six furlongs - I felt pretty good about his chances of wiring the field.  He kicked on with it through the lane and was the winner by a length and a half!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

 

He paid $5.60 and I cashed for over $40!  I was second in the Grade 3 American Derby when Euro invader Our channel was sent off at 6/1, took the lead into the stretch and opened up.....only to be nailed on the wire.  Man, hat would have been nice.  And then in my last bet of the day Tabreed was 9/2 in the Grade 3 Modesty, but was too far back to have an impact, eighth.  So for the day I was 5-for-13.....a solid 38% and had five other runners hit the board.  Amazingly  was able to make nearly $20 in site of the loss with Princess of Sylmar!  A good day of "virtual racing!"

July 11

Racing News

 

So the first day of racing for the week produced two third place finishes, that's all.  So let's talk racing news.....

We are just two weeks away from the signature day of the meet, the 2014 Haskell Invitational, and of course I will be there!  I fly out of Ft. Lauderdale on Saturday for Philadelphia, get into a rental car and will drive to the Jersey Shore where I have booked a hotel.  My seat is a reserved box in the Clubhouse right past the finish line.  So it is with great interest that I have been following the news as to the potential line-up for this major race of the summer.  The most exciting news is that one of my favorite sophomores, and I think perhaps the best of the generation, the filly Untapable is apparently on course to make her next stop here.  AND her regular rider, Rosie Napravnik appears to be readying to return to the irons after injuring herself late in the Churchill meet.  The Haskell will be no slam dunk as she will face several top notch colts, one of which is Wildcat Red who won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and was narrowly defeated in the Florida Derby by my top pick, Constitution.  He had a troubled trip in the Derby and came back with an authoritative score at Gulfstream to prep for this Gr 1.  He fired a sharp bullet work over the Hallandale surface this week going five furlongs in less than a minute.  He will most certainly be the one to run down late for Untapable!  On the undercard there are the Teddy Drone Stakes, the Grade 3 Oceanport, the Grade 3 Matchmaker, the Grade 2 Molly Pitcher, the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup, and of course the featured Grade 1, $1 million Haskell.  Other big races for the day include the Grade 1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar and the Grade 3 Shuvee at Saratoga.  I arrive on Saturday, in Philadelphia around 1:30 pm, so I should be able to get to the track no later than 2 pm, which will enable me to not only play the Monmouth card, but also the major races from around the country that day......including a pair of graded stakes from Saratoga in the Gr 3 Amsterdam and the Grade 2 Jim Dandy.

Locally, since Calder and Gulfstream have apparently settled their differences - for the time being - racing has picked up at Gulfstream to go Thursday through Sunday and the field have been noticeably deeper making for much better racing.  But the most significant news this week came when I read that the eight weeks of racing this fall at Calder, run by Gulfstream, will be a "boutique meet" that will be billed as a "turf festival."  Management at Gulfstream are in the process of completely ripping up the old Calder turf - which was hardly ever used - and replacing it with a quality surface.  That sounds great to me!  But then I read in an article about how Calder is layoff off nearly 250 employees (many of which I would call "racing friends"), that "....patrons will view the race from large tents rather than from the existing grandstand...." - what the?????  A day later I read this same thing with the comment that "officials would not comment on the rumor that the 1943 grandstand facility was going to be torn down completely this fall or early winter."  That would be sad, much like when the original Gulfstream facility was taken down.

Finally, Kim came home today after being gone eight long days, so glad to have her home.  This past Wednesday I drove across the state to see my former teaching pal, Anya.  We had a great day going to three different water-front restaurants for appetizers and catching up on what has been going on with our lives since she moved away.