Monday, July 14, 2014

July 12


In addition to my Monmouth Park selections for today I also had handicapped the Arlington card, not only because Arlington Million Preview Day is always a good card, but I will be in Chicago for the Arlington Million in August!  I also had handicapped the Delaware Park card as today was their big day featuring the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap and multiple Grade 1 winner Princess of Sylmar.  For the day I originally had eighteen selections, but scratches took out four of my selections, including my "BEST" of the day at Monmouth.  The racing started on the Jersey Shore with a juvenile sprint.  My top pick was Any Valid Saturday who'd flashed a best of 114 bullet for today!  He showed speed or a half mile then gave way, fading to fourth as the even money favorite.  Next up was a sprint from Delaware.  How Convnient was listed at 8/1 in the program and as I remarked in my analysis, "....would appear to be totally overlooked by the morning linemaker....."  He had won three straight while earning ascending Beyer figures, all of which were tops in the field.  The trainer was winning at 27% and rider 34% for the barn at a big $3.81 ROI.  While How Convenient had been away since October his lone race off a layoff had been an 11+ length blowout.  Too good to pass up.  Left the gate at 3/1 and ran away with it.  The $8.80 payoff earned me over $20!  Whooo hooo.  I missed on my next two picks, both from Monmouth.  Double Reverse pressed the lead as the 1/2 favorite into the turn and then weakened to third in the second race and in the fourth Happy Voyage was saving ground into the far turn over the turf course only to heck sharply and then was wide into the stretch.....third at 8/5.  But I picked up my second win of the day AND made a great decision!  The second at Arlington was an allowance race without conditions, which is the kind of race typically written for stakes winners who are making a comeback race.  This was the case as it featured Myositis Dan, who while not a stakes winner he'd been my top choice in the Gr 3 Derby Trial and had missed in a 3-way photo (#10 on outside), prompting Churchill Downs to use that photo as their web picture promoting their return to racing this fall....

Well, not only did he fit today's conditions, but even better, his three lifetime wins had all come in convincing fashion when racing over synthetic surfaces.....like Arlington.  AND, even better than that he ran his best races from off the pace, which is the typical profile of an Arlington winner.  I planned to triple the bet on him.  But when I went to make the investment I noted that there were two scratches.  So I upped the bet to "prime time" making him my "best" of the day at the Chicago oval.  He sat patently in the back, but not too far off the leaders, then made a sweeping move on the turn to collar the leaders at the 1/8th pole.  He kicked into high gear and was L-O-N-G gone on the wire!  WHOOO HOOOO! 

The generous payoff of $4.40 led to a payoff of nearly $45!  It was a good hour before my next pick, on the turf a Arlington where I had V V Goodnight.  She went off at 2/1 in this nw2x allowance spot.  She looked to be making a winning move heading into the turn, but had to wait for running room, when a seam opened she went for it and then was checked sharply, found another one and was checked sharply again.  It was remarkable she even got up for fourth.  Two scratches were next costing me a double investment in the Fort Delaware and my "BEST" at Monmouth in a maiden claiming sprint.  I had read online that the feature race today at Parx in Philadelphia - where I'd been for the Pennsylvania Derby a year ago last fall - was the Parx Dash going five and a half furlongs on the turf.  The three top finishers from a Grade 3 at Belmont on Belmont Stakes Day were all back today, but it was clear to me that at this shortened 5 1/2 panels instead of six (the Belmont race distance), Ben's Cat was a standout.  And how many times had this 23-time stakes winner lost back-to-back?  NONE!  So he was my "BEST" of the day there.  I was sooooooo delighted that he floated up to be the third choice at 5/2.  He was a little farther back than I would have wanted, but I trusted his regular rider Julian Pimentel to guide him.  They swung out wide into the lane and it looked like it would be close.  Ben accelerated late and...... PHOTO FINISH! 

I was pretty sure I'd won, but I was anxious for the "OFFICIAL" sign to go up.....and it did along with a payoff of $7.40!  Cashed for over $50 - how nice of a payoff would that have made on Black-Eyed Susans Day when I had $100 to win?  :)  At elaware I thought Winning Image was the clear lone speed of the Sweet and Sassy Stakes.  So did the crowd as they made her the 3/2 favorite.  Right to the front, but when the opening quarter, and half mile splits were posted - 21.3 and :44.0 - I knew she'd have to be pretty sharp to hold on.  She ran exceptionally well considering the final time was 1:08.4, but she was second best.  My next two picks were scratched.  I was fifth at Monmouth when Forgotten Prayers under Paco Lopez was a huge 3/1, took the lead into the stretch and I was smiling....only to see him give it up through the final furlong.  Then my BET of the Day in the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap.  Princess of Sylmar was 1/5 and I thought it was pretty obvious in a five horse field that she could NOT lay off the pace in the back.  She'd won at this distance in the Alabama last year by sitting just four off the leaders into the turn.  But today not only did she trail by six or more lengths, but the leader was loose on the lead while posting a :25 and :49 pace.  No catching that one, and in addition Princess of Sylmar just didn't seem to have the same punch.  She should have won that one.  It will be hard to show a profit today with that $50 loss I thought.  While they were about to load into the gate I realized they were into the gate in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap in Chicago.  I quickly switched screens to make the bet, but it was too late, they were off.  I was ok with that as my pick, War Dancer, had not inspired great confidence.  But on paper he looked best.  Glad I didn't get the bet in, he was a non-threatening third!  I finally got a win at Monmouth when Didn't Take It scored in a turf sprint allowance.  He was a Monmouth 40% Club play for trainer Jorge Navarro, but somehow was allowed to o off at 5/2.  Cashed for over $35.  The Grade 3 Stars & Stripes was next at Arlington, and I liked Horse-for-the-Course The Pizza Man.  He was 9/6-1-1 locally and was a good third here in this race last year.  He fit the track profile as a closer and he'd scored several times for me with a late run up the rail.  So when they broke out of the gate and his rider immediately took him to the lead I had my misgivings.  But a the fractions were posted - :53 for the half and a glacial 1:21 for six furlongs - I felt pretty good about his chances of wiring the field.  He kicked on with it through the lane and was the winner by a length and a half!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 
 
He paid $5.60 and I cashed for over $40!  I was second in the Grade 3 American Derby when Euro invader Our channel was sent off at 6/1, took the lead into the stretch and opened up.....only to be nailed on the wire.  Man, hat would have been nice.  And then in my last bet of the day Tabreed was 9/2 in the Grade 3 Modesty, but was too far back to have an impact, eighth.  So for the day I was 5-for-13.....a solid 38% and had five other runners hit the board.  Amazingly  was able to make nearly $20 in site of the loss with Princess of Sylmar!  A good day of "virtual racing!"

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