June 29

Closing Day

End Of Churchill Downs Handicapping Project

Today we were on the road from Hiawassee to Orlando as our Williamsburg adventure came to an end.  We planned to leave early, but I was awake at 4:30 so we were out the door by 5 am.  At our second stop I got on my phone and made my selections for the final day of racing under the Twin Spires.  We arrived in O-town around 2:30 pm and met Brad and Julie at Brad's apartment.  We went out to eat and when we got back I ran through the replays to see how my final day of daily handicapping here had gone.  In the second race, my first bet of the day I thought Alaco Castle looked very strong.  Prior to his last start here he'd run back-to-back 85+ speed figures which would WALK with this sprint.  In fact in his eight previous races he had 80 or better five times and the others were a 77, 78 and 79.  So what about that last race? He was coming off a layoff and had broken in the air according to the trouble line.  Looking at the pp's you could tell he'd had a bad start.  And that had come against $25K runners - today he was dropping into $16K company.  Seemed destined to be odds-on I thought.  I mean, how difficult is it to see all this in the Racing Form? 

He bobbled briefly at the break then tracked the early leader into the turn.  He glided to the front and drew off to win by THIRTEEN widening lengths by, as the charts said "...as the rider pleased....."  Whoooo hooooooo! 

But here's the best part, as you can see in the photo above somehow the crowd had allowed him to go off at a GENEROUS 2/1.  He paid $6.40 and with my triple investment I cashed for nearly $50!  What a great way to start off the final day's card.  In the 5th and 7th I was near the early pace, but not near the winner on the finish line (3rd in the 5th, and stopped to be last in the 7th).  In the 8th it was a MSW for juveniles, I had Skipalute who was a solid 5/1.  He tracked the front runner and made a bid, but the leader had a lot left and drew off while I was a best-of-the-rest second.  In the finale for the day, the week, and the meet I had Rau Breck on the turf.  She went right to the front and was loose on the lead at 3/1 into the far turn before running out of gas and fading.  So for the day I nearly broke even thanks to the early win, but had a single winner on the day. 

When I ran all the numbers it turned out that I'd had one of the very best handicapping projects of my ten race career....... 

And with my Churchill Downs 40% Club selections I had been very successful as well: 

76 Selections / 33 WINS
43.4% Win Pct / ROI = $2.70

And finally, in my "challenge" to Churchill's professional handicapper, Jill Byrne, I "out-handicapped" her in wins, winning percentage, and ROI!......

Mark                                                           Jill
338 Selections / 100 WINS                      331 Selections / 96 WINS
30.1% Win Pct / ROI = $1.54                    29.0% Win Pct / ROI = $1.40

I found it ironic that the Churchill web site is promoting their return this fall with the photo finish from Opening Night where my pick, #10-Myositis Dan, nearly upset the Grade 3 Derby Trial at 7/1 and it looks like he's winning!  The summer racing continues with my next summer racing project where I'll be handicapping Monmouth Park races on a daily races, though they only run Friday-through-Sunday.  But the good news is that Gulfstream will move to a Thursday-through-Sunday schedule.