Tuesday, August 26, 2014

August 22-24

Beach Getaway Weekend
Friday August 22
 
I have to say I was very disappointed with the racing results over the weekend, but absolutely loved our "staycation" in Delray Beach.  The weekend kicked off on Friday and I spent a good deal of the day handicapping for the weekend because I knew I'd be relaxing at our beach condo.  But I had five selections at Monmouth.  I had also read that the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes was this weekend at Saratoga, it usually is the Sunday feature after Travers Day.  But when I was checking for scratches Friday morning I saw an article about the race being run, TODAY.  I was able to download the past performances for that race for free through DRF because it was the Friday "Race of the Day."  I had played Princess of Sylmar two races back when she faced Beholder and Close Hatches in a real showdown of powerful four-year-old fillies.  But she was caught wide and narrowly missed to Close Hatches.  On the basis of that effort I thought she laid over the field in the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap next out, but she was flat through the far turn and stretch and was all out to narrowly get second over two runners she should have beat with her hoofs tied together.  You could have made the argument that she was a victim to a lone speedster on the front, but watching the race live, she simply was not the same filly she's been in the past.  So when I saw that Todd Pletcher was putting blinkers on to "wake her up" today, I thought that this was a very negative sign.  Why experiment in a Grade 1?  I was completely against.  I thought perhaps I would get a fair price on Close Hatches who was the class of the field - if you dismissed Princess of Sylmar - but she was in post six with at least two other speedsters to her inside.  Still, I'd seen her win from a stalking trip so I was not concerned.  I considered a prime-time bet, but decided to stick to a double-investment.  Later in the afternoon I watched the races and the results were mixed at best.  The track was sloppy in New Jersey and we were off the turf.  I had checked the pp's and both of my turf selections would have as good a chance on the main track I thought.  In the first race Sweet Puddin was 17/1 and rated in fourth to the far turn - maybe......but no, faded to 8th.  Startripenterprise was sent off as the 8/5 favorite in the off-the-turf 5th and appeared to be ready to strike at the top of the stretch....again no, faded to 5th.  My Monmouth "Bet of the Day" was in the 7th with Featherthefalcon, again off the turf.  Set the pace while under snug restraint by Paco Lopez to the far turn, then coughed it up like she'd been sprinting the entire way.  Wow.  Missed again when Lasso set the pace in the 8th and faded.  Now it was time for the Personal Ensign.  Close Hatches had been listed as the 8/5 favorite, but as they neared the gate she was fluctuating between 2/1 and 9/5.  A fair price I thought.  They broke from the gate and she was pressing the speed through the first turn, then it seemed like the rider of the other speed horse decided not to press the issue and coaxed his filly to back off.  Well ok then, said Joel Rosario, and Close Hatches assumed command.  The fractions were faster than I thought they needed to be, but as is the case with a front runner, the key is NOT how fast they are going but how are they doing it?  She was relaxed and well within herself.  When heads turned for home and the others began to kick into gear Rosario shook the reins and she was LONG one! 

WHOOO HOOOO!  The price was a more than fair $5.90 and I cashed for nearly $30!  Minutes later it was time for the finale at Monmouth.  Even my recent run of disappointing selections could not stop Why Oh Why as not only he dropped in class, but cut back from six furlongs to five panels.  He burst from the gate and was quickly six in front in a sizzling :21 and change opening quarter.  I knew the race was over.  Perhaps better, more seasoned horses would be able to run him down, but not these cheap maiden claimers.  He'd been 6/5 they loaded into the gate, but by the time he was in front the odds had plummeted to 3/5.  Still, I'll take the win and be happy with the 33% results on the day.

Saturday August 23
Today was Travers Stakes Day - a year ago I'd been at Saratoga with my brother-in-law Jason for this big day.  On the Friday before I'd won five races on track, but on the big day itself I had one win and one win only.  But.....I'd enjoyed the day's adventure.  So too was the way that today went.  I enjoyed day on Delray Beach, but the races from Saratoga, and Monmouth provided one win - a 4/5 front-runner that I'd bet the minimum on.  The only thing I will say about the racing was that most all of the races were won by longshots, so I wasn't the only one losing. 

Sunday August 24
Our weekend in Delray was great.  When I called Saturday morning around 9 am to see if we could get in early (check-in was supposed to be 4 pm) they said they were ready for us.  So Kim and I quickly finished packing and headed out.  Forty minutes later we were at the South Shore Club on the Atlantic Ocean in Delray.  When we checked in at the office the ladies told us that because I had "sounded young" on the phone they figured we could "handle steps" so they had upgraded us from a villa to a two-story townhome!  WHOOO HOOO!  And it was closer to the beach!  The only thing I did not love about the entire facility was that we did not have a balcony and/or view of the ocean from our place.  We got settled in and went to downtown Delray Beach, was like a Los Olas main street - lots of shops and restaurants in an "old Florida" flavor.  We had a delicious pizza for lunch.  Then we were in the ocean for a while - Kim stayed out and got sun, I watched several races.  Then we went out to dinner on the water.  That evening we watched more episodes of "The Killing" - our latest binge tv series. 
Today we got up and got our coffee then sat on the beach and enjoyed the view - I captured this video of our view (see above).

Then we went for a walk, and then out to lunch on the waterfront again.  Kim went back to the beach, but I sat out in front of our condo and ready and listened to the ocean in the distance.  Because Kim has the whole "work thing" we headed out to dinner at a local Longhorn Steakhouse and then back home.  But the good news is that the condo is ours for the entire week!  So my plan is to head back Tuesday morning when Kim goes to work.  I'll come home early afternoon, then Wednesday Kim will come home early and we'll head back to Delray Beach and spend the night.  She will get up early for work, and I'll stay until about lunch time.  Then after school on Friday we are planning to go down, meet Sue & Dan, then have a few others over for steamed crab legs.  We'll spend the night and head for home early Saturday, where I should be in my chair in time for ESPN College GameDay and the start of the college football season!  But, let's get to the racing on Sunday which was disappointing, but had a little more positive news.  Today was Pacific Classic Day at Del Mar - sidenote, I am considering going to next year's edition to kick off my 2015-2016 travel plans!  I had originally intended to play the Del Mar card, but after the way last weekend and Travers Day went I decided I would be more selective.  I had three stakes selections and a 2-year-old maiden sprint.  I also had seven selections at Monmouth and I really thought I'd bounce back today.  In four of the first F-I-V-E races on the Jersey shore saw my runner go off as the short-priced favorite, but I failed to win any of them!  I was second best in two of them, but close doesn't count when you are making win bets!  Finally in the tenth race I won at Monmouth.  Scatter Joy was a Paco Lopez horse - he's been struggling lately which explains a lot of my missing since I give his mounts extra points - and he stalked the pace like he was much the best into the stretch.  But when he said go there was no burst of acceleration and he was all out to hold off the closers.  Still, at 4/5 I'll take the narrow win and the near $20 payoff.  I was second, again in the Del Mar maiden race and then it was time for my 'Best" at Monmouth.  Big Blue Kitten was a multiple Grade 1 winner in a Grade 3.  While he might have had problems as a closer, there were several front running types that would set him nicely.  And the one stalker who probably had the best chance to beat him to the wire was on a ten-race losing streak.  Do I have to tell you more?  Right, I closed like a freight train but couldn't catch the 0-for-10 runner, second again.  Next was my "BET of the WEEKEND" with Obviously in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile.  Obviously was a multiple Grade 1 winner going a mile on the turf; he was 3-for-3 at Del Mar (8-for-11 at a mile); he had the rail and was the LONE speed.  Duh.  But he broke poorly, rushed up and had control of the race heading down the backstretch.  I thought he looked comfortable on the lead and he was clearly the class of the field.  But when they turned for home and jockey Joe Talamo asked him for a burst to open up on the field he had nothing.  They inhaled him by the furlong marker and he didn't even hit the board at 2/5.  Double wow, squared!  The finale at Monmouth was next and I had Surprise Strike.  He sat mid-pack, about five off the leaders into the turn, made his move entering the stretch and then forged to the lead at the 16th pole.  There were all kinds of bumping and weaving going on, so much so that the announcer called it a "rodeo of a stretch run."  Would I come down?  Nope!  Posted at 7/5 I had my second winner at Monmouth and of the day.  Later in the evening it was time for the Grade 1 Pacific Classic.  There were a lot of ways to go in here, but here's what I thought.......Game On Dude had been burying all the west coast handicap horses for the last three years so I dismissed everyone but him.  But, he has been up and down on his form so I thought he might be vulnerable.  I liked the unbeaten three-year-old, Shared Belief, who had been the Eclipse winner of two-year-old of the year last season.  He'd missed the Derby trail with an injury but he'd won two in a row prior to today.  I noted in my analysis that all five of his prior starts had posed questions he had to answer for the first time, so the fact he faced older and was going 1 1/4 miles for the first time didn't faze me.  Check out the dramatic outcome......


I must say when Game On Dude opened up heading into the far turn I was a big worried!  But how good is this sensational colt?  I expect to see him one more time before he heads to the Breeders' Cup Classic.  He has a real shot at 3-year-old of the year and Horse of the Year if he can win two more.  I had tripled the bet so I got back over $30.  So, three wins on the day, better than yesterday. 

One week left of the Monmouth Handicapping Project and the Summer Racing Season.  I would sure like to finish off the summer with a big day or better yet a big weekend!

Monday, August 18, 2014

August 15-17

Arlington Million Weekend
August 15-17
Friday August 15
My second big adventure of the summer began early Friday morning when I left for the Ft. Lauderdale airport around 5 am for a 7 am flight.  I was a little concerned about the line to go through security after the LONG wait I'd had when flying to New Jersey for Haskell weekend, but not only were there many more parking spots available, but the line was very short.  I was at the gate and ready to go about an hour before we boarded.  The flight took off just as the sun was beginning to rise over the trees and we landed in Baltimore a little early. 
                                 
As we landed I thought about my planned May adventure to the Preakness here in Maryland and made a note to myself to investigate perhaps staying a little longer somewhere on Maryland's Eastern Shore.  I had less than an hour before take-off on the connecting flight to Chicago and soon I was on my way again.  As we had made our descent into Baltimore the pilot had announced the weather in Baltimore as being 66 degrees.  I was excited that maybe we'd get similar weather in Chicago, and when I looked it up on my weather app I saw that indeed we'd be in the upper 70s most of the weekend.  Since Keith was driving up from the St. Louis area I didn't need to rent a car, so I'd arranged with All-Star Taxi Service to meet me at the airport and take me to the hotel.  I'd also asked about transportation to the track for the afternoon.  I called as soon as I walked off the plane and was told to meet them right outside baggage; no sooner had I walked out than my phone rang and the were there.  Nice. The weather was about 70 degrees and crystal blue skies - nothing like the 90+ heat of South Florida with humidity making it feel close to 100.  After about a 45 minute drive we arrived at the Hyatt Regency-Schaumburg, which was less than five minutes from the track.  As the driver pulled in I was certain he'd taken me to the wrong place.  I could tell from the outside that this was a NICE place, truly a "Regency" hotel.  But no, it was the right place.  When I walked in the lobby was gi-normous!  I checked in quickly and went upstairs to drop off my bag before going back to the driver to take me to the races.  The room was huge as well. 

By 1:45 pm (Chicago time) I was in the car headed to Arlington.  As I walked up to the clubhouse it was about five minutes before 2 pm and with a 3 pm late post today the doors were just getting ready to open.  As I waited, I pulled up the race replays and watched the first race on my sheet, from Monmouth.  PJ's Enigma had been the 4/5 favorite and sailed along the rail behind the leaders into the stretch, but had no finish - third.  The doors opened and I walked in - what a beautiful facility, the first thing I saw was the clubhouse with all the international flags out.....

and then I head inside o try and catch my next race, the third at Saratoga.  They were approaching the gate, but my pick has scratched.  So I pulled up my replay app and watched my Monmouth race which had gone off just as the doors were opening.  PJ Hooker had left the gate at 5/2, but was never in contention....fifth.  I walked around the facility reminding myself of where everything was from the last time I was here, for the 2011 Million, and took a "selfie" with the track in the background.  And then I found a monitor to watch the fourth from Monmouth.  I had picked Outwildcattin' who was a Monmouth 40% Club play for trainer Jorge Navarro - over the last two summers when Paco Lopez rides he'd won at a 45% rate.  Outwildcattin' was 7/2 in the program, but no one in the crowd was fooled and he went off as the 3/5 favorite.  He pressed the leaders to midway through the turn the took off under a hand ride to score easily, my first winner of the weekend!  Back inside for the fourth from Saratoga.  Street Girl was the 4/5 favorite in this nine furlong allowance test.  She tracked the top two into the lane, but had no kick and ran evenly to the wire to be third.  The eighth from the jersey shore produced much the same as Vipera was the 7/5 favorite on the grass and simply ran evenly from a tracking fourth along the rail to the top of the stretch and then nothing.....fourth on the line.  That ended the races I had bet this morning online - not knowing when I would get to the track.  So now I was ready to start playing with my "real money" at the windows.  First up was the sixth from Monmouth.  This was another Monmouth 40% Club play, and again it was for Jorge Navarro.  This time El Botas fit the angle of first off a long layoff (61-90 days) which had been a 44% win angle.  I wrote in my analysis that maybe we'd get a price today because leading rider Paco Lopez was NOT on board.  Sure enough after being listed at 4/1 in the program, El Botas left the gate at a HUGE 9/2.  Right to the front and never looked back!  It was a little close as they approached the wire but I never thought he'd lose. 

The $11.40 payoff resulted in a return of $57 to start my weekend of live betting!  NICE!  The sixth from Saratoga was next on my sheet, but Chilton was a late scratch at the gate.  So now it was time for live racing at Arlington.  My first selection in the opener was Dreamofjean E. who was part of an entry.  She scratched and I thought of just passing the race.  But, the other half of the entry, Case Cracker was being well bet, so I thought....."OK, the trainer wants to run this one today and the crowd like her chances.  I am here for the day, why not stick with the trainer's pick?"  So I went ahead and put down the minimum.  Right to the front, and never looked back!  WHOOO HOOOO!  It didn't matter that it only paid $4.00, I was happy to have picked another winner, and this one live on track with my first live bet!  So I took a photo and posted it on Facebook! 

Next was the eighth from Monmouth.  Sweet Henrietta was 7/ in the program in what looked like a very evenly matched field.  The fact that Paco Lopez was on this filly was the main angle for me.  She left the gate at 2/1 and rallied from way, WAY back to win going away!  My third win in a row since I started betting live!  The $6.40 payoff netted me over $15.  I finally lost a race, this one in the live 2nd at Arlington.  It was a turf sprint  and I liked Fleet Encounter who was 5-for-7 sprinting over the Chicago grass. Her entry mate set the pace and ET Baird made his move turning for home.  Opened up to lead by two and I couldn't believe I was going to win again, but then here came a closer up the rail - PHOTO FINISH!  It was ever so close, but I was a nose back in second.  In the 8th at Saratoga I'd gone with a closer on the grass in Tabreed.  The pace looked to be contentious, but instead it was moderate at best (:49.2 / 1:13) so I had little chance from the back - a wide, rallying third at 8/5. The fourth at Arlington was next and it was a mile on the turf.  Royal Alluvial had won two straight main-track sprints, but today was stretching out and changing surfaces.  Still she'd done this before and the trainer, Wayne Catalano had a 57% win rate with jockey ET Baird.  So I picked her.  The crowd was really playing her strongly, so I doubled the bet.  She stalked the pace, took over at the top of the lane and was clear....then here came a late runner who collared her at the 16th pole....stretch duel.....PHOTO FINISH!  I really couldn't tell, even after watching the slo-mo replays several times.  Finally the number came up.....

It was mine!  Paid out $4.60 and I collected nearly $25!  I missed in the next three, two from out of town:  In the John Morrisey from Saratoga, Saratoga Snacks was an even 4th at 3/1; at Monmouth Lucy Action went right to the front at 4/1 and led all the way  into the stretch, opened up by four and I was counting the $50 in winnings as he ran to the wire, but he was nailed by the narrowest of margins, second.  And finally at Arlington I was 3rd at 7/2 with a horse ridden by Rosemary Homeister, Jr. my former student.  So I headed out to the paddock to video the first part of the day's action. Took a couple of pics - first from the top of the clubhouse stairs looking out at the "Against All Odds" statute into the paddock and then a close-up of the statute.......


my "break" was over and it was time to go back to bet the final three races at Arlington.  In the sixth I liked Sanculpa on the turf.  Leading rider James Graham was on board.  The rest of the field was a combined 1-for-30 on the turf.  Sanculpa had never raced for a claiming tag, much less a 2-lifetime condition like this, so I doubled the bet.  Rated in fifth on the rail into the lane, switched out three-wide and collared the leader late - PHOTO FINISH, again!  But this time I was pretty sure I'd gotten up in time. 

And I had, scoring at 4/5 - cashed for nearly $20.  I went inside to bet the last two races, with the finale being my "BEST" of the day.  I had talked to Keith and his GPS indicated he'd be arriving at close to post time of that final race.  But when I made my picks the teller told me that my selection in the last was scratched.  So I planned I'd go get an Arlington shirt after the 7th and wait for Keith at the entrance.  I ran third after leading all the way to mid-stretch with 7/5 favorite St. James Park.  And as I headed to the entrance I called Keith... he was pulling into the parking lot.  What great timing.  He picked me up and we headed to Outback for dinner and then back to the hotel to prepare for the big day tomorrow.  For the day today I was six-for-sixteen, nearly 40% and I'd won cash for the day.  My losses online made me lose a little overall for the day, but I was happy to have a little extra money for tomorrow's Million Day card.  Check out the video highlights of today.

Saturday August 16
Arlington Million Day

We were up with great anticipation for today's big day of racing.  We were both up early and had coffee and a cinnamon roll downstairs at the hotel.  We were dressed and on our way by 10 am to get gas, do a little local exploring and then head to the track.  When we arrived we drove into the "Preferred" parking area, I'd pre-paid for a parking pass - clever me - and parked in the second row.  We by-passed all the lines because I'd printed out our tickets, again oh-so-clever, and as we walked in there was a girl all dressed up, with fancy dress and hat who said, "Would you gentlemen like a Million souvenir glass?"  I immediately thought of the Haskell glass I'd got and sits on my shelf and so I asked, "Are you saying they are free?"  She replied, "Yes, everyone gets one glass free with admission!"   So we took a glass and Keith offered to take them out to the car.  While he did that I walked into the paddock and did a quick intro video to the day, commenting about how I had my own program, and that contained all the winners for the day, and I had the souvenir program from Arlington Park.
 
When Keith arrived back we first went out onto the apron and found a lady to take our photo, and then I gave him the tour of the track.  He'd never been before and was duly impressed by the facility.  After that we went to find our seats and see what kind of view we had, and it was a great panoramic vista of the track, just past the finish line.  And we were under cover which provided shade nearly the entire day.  There were scattered high clouds which shielded the sun's direct rays, but it was a bright day with patches of blue.  There was a nice breeze and as we sat down briefly Keith remarked that the facility, the weather, it just was like being at the "old Gulfstream" in the winter time.  Indeed.  What great weather - I commented on this many times over he weekend.  We decided that now that we had our bearings and it was still about an hour to the first race on the sheet, we'd be smart to grab something to eat and sit down.  We could take a little time to go through changes and scratches.  And I also told Keith that I wanted to plan out a betting strategy of what groups of races I wanted to bet so that I would not be wasting time in line to make wagers too close to a race.  By looking through the set of selections I found six breaks where there was at least a half hour between post times, and so those provided natural breaks.  We went into the food court and we decided on a "Chicago Dog" for lunch.  He was in line at one place which offered several different versions and I went over to another where you could see these nice, foot-long sausage dogs.  I got mine and when he saw mine he looked down at his six-inch hot dog and lamented I'd made the right choice! 
 

By the time we'd gone through the program it was time to begin racing!  I had found on Friday that there were very few live tellers to take your bets and was hoping that today would be different.  We found a set of tellers, but they told us they weren't open yet.  But you could see right over their shoulder other tellers on the other side were already taking bets.  So we went around to make them.  The lady I was betting with seemed to be feeling her way through the process and she looked up at one point and said "Today is my first day!"  Great.  It took several minutes, and I discovered afterwards she'd given me one ticket on a Saratoga harness race for tonight and another for a Saratoga thoroughbred race today.....wow.  This was just the first of several teller issues.  At one point I went through my selections with the guy and he kept having to look at his cheat sheet to get the track codes.  And later as they were approaching the gate I discovered he'd given me the right race and number, but the wrong track.  I tried to get the change in but the auto-teller machine would not take the ticket and when I got to a real teller it was too late.....sigh.  Finally, I was in line to make a bet behind two people.  I waited patiently but then the guy at the window asked, "What is a Pick-Six?"  Really?  People are betting the races here!  He finally went away and the lady in front of me said, "I want #7, #4, #5 in the fifth race."  The teller said, "Do you want them all to win, an exacta, a trifecta?"  The lady looked at the teller for about five seconds and said, "Here at Arlington, in this race."  The teller looked at her.  So I said, do you want to bet those in an exacta or trifecta in the same race?"  The lady barely looked at me and then asked the teller, "Yes, I want the 10-7-4-5.  I want to box a trifecta - they can come in any order right?"  The teller turned to another teller, "Can you box four horses in a trifecta?"  WOW - even the teller doesn't know what she's doing.  Meanwhile I just want to make a win bet.  The teller finds out yes, you can box four horses, so she asks, how much?  The lady again, gives her a blank stare and says "I want a trifecta box, 10-7-4-5."  The teller says, how much?  "In this race."  SIGH.......so I step in again and say, do you want a $1 box, a $2 box?  Now she gets it, "A $2 box."  Wait, says the teller, the #7 is scratched.  REALLY?  Oh yes, this really happened!  Now the lady says "I want an exacta box, 10-4-5"  How much?  For $2 asks the teller?  OK, says the lady, and I'm thinking she doesn't know that is isn't a $2 bet, that will be $12.  "And then $10 to win on the 10."  FINALLY.  The whole day was full of similar teller stories.....The first selection was at Monmouth where Uncle Chub was the 3/5 favorite.  He was the clear speed of the race.  They got in the gate and immediately a horse broke through.....delay.  Then we broke behind the field.....and that my friends was the story of the day's betting - little went according to plan.  It was a very, very slim day for winners, but as Keith said later, no one could have figured most of the winners out, and it wasn't like we were not playing logical horses.....we lost with favorites and second favorites while the winners from nearly all of the races we lost paid big prices: 

So, instead of boring you with all the details, let's focus on the big four graded stakes at Arlington and the other two graded races I had bets on.  In the $400K American St. Leger I did not like the favorite, so I went with what looked to be the LONE SPEED in Big Kick.  He'd wired a Grade 2 out west and I thought could easily take them gate to wire.  He went off at 5/1 and was out in front cruising by daylight into the far turn, then stopped and finished last.  The next big event was the Grade 1 Secretariat for 3-year-olds going a mile and a quarter on the turf.  Last night and again this morning I had debated about re-structuring my bets and making Adelaide my "BET of the DAY" in this race, but after Keith and I discussed the races he agreed with my original pick, Alterite in the Beverly D, was truly the most logical winner on the day and would probably be a fair price.  So I stuck with my "prime time" investment.  Adelaide stalked the leader to the far turn, drew even and as heads turned for home he began to open up.  But then for every one stride forward he was drifting two strides out!  He was making this so much harder than it should be!  Watching the replay he was never less than half a length in front, but watching from our seats it looked oh so close, so in the video you will NOT hear me cheering because I am on pins and needles! 

The $4.20 payoff netted me a nice $42 return!  I had Keith take my photo standing in front of some lattice work just as I'd posed on my first visit here in 2007.  Despite all of the previous losses both of us were looking at a winning day if we were right about Alterite in the Beverly D.  Trainer Chad Brown had said about her heading into her last race, the Grade 1 Diana at Saratoga, that they were hoping to win off the layoff from November to July, but he'd picked the Diana because it set her up perfectly for the Beverly D at Arlington.  He had a history of winning this race with owner Martin Schwartz with fillies like this - buy them as European group winners and bring them here to win Grade 1 races, including the Beverly D, twice.  In 2011 my "Bet of the Day" had been their filly, Stacilita.  We were thrilled when she went off at 3/1 odds.  She stalked the pace from about four off the lead to the far turn then as asked to run - and nothing.  Faded to 10th.  SOOOO disappointing.  But, no time to waste as the Grade 3 Jersey Shore was about to go off at Monmouth.  I did not like the favorite there and went with Paco Lopez riding Eddie Plesa's Prudhoe Bay, listed at 3/1 in the program.  As I walked in they were just crossing the wire, and without my glasses I couldn't see the names, but I could swear I saw a red saddle cloth - for the #1 horse, which would be Prudhoe Bay.  As I got closer the camera zoomed in on the winner......indeed it was Prudhoe Bay!  WHOOO HOOO! 

And here's the best part was as I got closer I could now not only read the name, but see the odds - 5/1!  The payoffs came up, $12.40!  I am cashing for over $60!  I filmed a winning clip on the clubhouse stairs and came back to the monitors just in time to see them going into the gate at Saratoga for the Grade 1 Alabama.  Stopchargingmaria had won for me at Saratoga in her debut last summer.  I had her on Opening Day at Gulfstream in one of the last graded stakes in New York for two-year-olds.  But in mid-winter she'd run poorly at Gulfstream.  But in her race two back, in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susans I had picked her at a nice price.  Now that she was back at Saratoga she'd been flourishing and she'd won the Grade 1 Coaching Club of America Oaks at the Spa last time out.  I had questions about her getting the 1 1/4 mile distance, but she was a "Horse-for-the-Course" and the class of the field.  She stalked the leader to the top of the lane, then blew by to win with authority!  HORRAY, my third stakes win of the day! 

The last big graded stakes was the Grade 1 Arlington Million, the signature race of the meet and the day.  I liked the defending Breeders' Cup Turf champion, European invader Magician.  But he'd upset the field that day at 12/1 and had lost twice - albeit to tougher Euros - since.  I thought he might be vulnerable.  But hard as I tried I couldn't find anyone to beat him.  Keith told me earlier in the day he had to make a bet for his brother; his girlfriend had picked Hardest Core.  I told him that he was cross-entered in the St. Leger, a listed stakes and I didn't think he had a legitimate chance there.  So I checked the scratches and he was indeed going in the Million.  Magician tracked the pace into the stretch then hit another gear and quickly was two lengths clear on the lead.  The crowd roared as he was the even-money favorite and would be a popular winner indeed.  He held the lead to the furlong mark and then a runner emerged from the field with some momentum.  It looked to me as I watched it that we were clear by enough to win, but in the final strides Magician was caught, second.....grrrrr.  Who was that?  You guessed it, it was Hardest Core and he paid $25 to win - Keith's brother had it.  Why I asked?  He texted him.....the reply was his girlfriend liked the name.  Wow.  We watched the final two races from Arlington while the crowd headed out and then I filmed my video recap (see below).  Note all the close finishes, sigh.  We went to Red Lobster for dinner and enjoyed the rest of the evening rehashing the day at the races and generally "solving life's problems."  We went to bed early because not only were we exhausted (got back to the hotel about 9 pm), but we were leaving at 3:45 am to make the trip to the airport so I could get through security by 5 am as boarding began at 5:30 am for my 6 o'clock flight.
 
Arlington Million Day Photos

Arlington International Race Track
Shelf Racing Statutes
The Arlington Clubhouse
On The Clubhouse Steps
Arlington Paddock
View Of Clubhouse From Paddock
Winning Pose:  2007-2014
Grandstand View - Arrow Indicates Our Seats
Stretch Run - Arrow Indicates Our Seats
View From Our Seats
 
Sunday August 17
The alarm came early, but I had been up at 2:30 am.  It was a cool 68 degrees as we headed down the road to Midway International.  Very little traffic and Keith and I reflected on the weekend, how much we enjoyed being together on such adventures and looking forward to our next time together.  The timing could not have been better.  I was through and in my seat outside the gate about 40 minutes before boarding time.  The flight to Tampa was in 2 1/2 hours, landing at 9:30 EST.  I had less than 45 minutes before we boarded for the final leg of my trip.  I touched down at 11:45 am and was home by a little after noon.  Later that evening I watched the five races I'd had at Monmouth for today......sadly, it was a continuation of Saturday's racing luck:  five picks, five competitive efforts, but no finishing punch.....including two seconds and a third.  But, it was a great adventure and I'll remember the weekend for the good times, the weather, and the stakes wins!

Monday, August 11, 2014

August 10

You Just NEVER Know.......

After yesterday's big day I thought I would continue to score and bring myself back up to "normal" after a sub-par Thursday had started the week off slowly. But today was NOT what I had anticipated. I had eight picks on the day and I was confident about all of them, including three triple investments. But I was third with my first pick when I led into the stretch after going sprint-like fast in a route, then 3rd at 1/2 in my second bet when the rider would not let the horse run until too late. In the 4th of the day Paco Lopez was my pick and I'd tripled the bet on his 2/1 mount on the turf. He pressed, then drove to the lead at the top of the lane. It was a three way battle through the final furlong and I kept thinking, ".....he'll win, he won't be outfinished....." - no, outbobbed on the wire. Ouch - that would have helped big time. Missed again in the 5th with my lone minimum bet. In the Colleen Stakes I was sitting right where I should but the front-runner would not stop. Wow - off to an 0-for-5 start to the day. In the 9th it was a nw2-state bred races and my pick More Than Ready was the speed on the rail AND a Paco Lopez-Eddie Broome (Monmouth 40% Club) play. No one was fooled, he was 1-5 and ran like it - right to the front by daylight and Lopez was looking around for company midway through the turn. Impressive, but a miniscule price. In watching the replays I was up to the 10th as they were going to the gate for the finale. In the 10th, the Fort Monmouth I had Ju Ju Eyeballs who was a perfect 3-for-3 over the Monmouth course and 4-for-4 in turf sprints. She was positioned perfectly outside two longshots and made her move coming out of the turn. But as they hit the top of the stretch I could tell, she had nothing left.....faded to 7th and last. I went to click on the 11th race but it wasn't loaded yet. I worked on finishing the laundry, resigned to the fact that my pick in the finale, even if he won, as the favorite I'd simply minimize my losses for the day, I mean really.....how good can a day turn out when you're one for seven and that one winner was 1/5, paying $2.40? When I got back on I opened the replay and the odds board was showing just before the race started.....I thought, "wait a minute...." I paused the video and looked down at my sheet. I had #3 Soniko who was a Jorge Navarro first-off-the-claim runner - a Monmouth Park 40% Club, and his top winning percentage play. Soniko pressed the pace to the top of the turn then dropped back two lengths off the 3/2 favorite, and then not one, not two, but three closers surrounded him as he seemed to be falling back even farther. I thought, really? Then he seemed to re-break and made his move on the leader, he collared the favorite turning for home and at the furlong pole he began to edge clear...........

The unexpected big payoff brought be back to less than $15 behind for the day, and after the position I was in heading into the gate to start the race I was delighted.....who would have thought a $10K claiming sprint with a trainer move that scored at better than 50% would pay off so handsomely and save the day! This upcoming week is Arlington Million Week! Very excited for my trip to Chicago on Friday!

August 9

A HUGE Day Of Handicapping!

After the slow start on Wednesday, I picked up the pace today on winners.  Let's just get the numbers out there right off the bat......

18 selections / 9 WINS / 50% 
 
Whoooo hoooo!  Let's take a look at how this all came about.  First, the day was not off to a great start as today was the day my Mom, sister, & niece all headed back to Ohio.  As I said to Kim on the way home from the airport, the one thing that is true about when my family heads back home is that you can no longer fool yourself into thinking it's still summer vacation time - school is starting and a new year of work is about to begin. 
Summer 2014 - A Great Two Plus Months With Family & Friends
 
But, I added, one of the great perks to being retired is that for me, the summer still has many weeks left!  I had considered going to the races today as it was the first leg of the Florida Sire Series (formerly the Florida Stallion Stakes at Calder), but I really didn't want to take Kim's car out to Gulfstream and I thought I might miss the first race or so.  Plus, I just didn't think I had that many selections to keep me occupied all day long.  So I decide on a day of racing online.  I handicapped the Monmouth card, obviously, and added the Saratoga card to the Gulfstream one; and then I decided to look at Delaware to perhaps give me a few more races during the times I would not have selections at the other three.  The first race on the menu was the opener at Gulfstream.  Bold Perspective had won four of his last six races and six of eighteen.  He had run three times in open company and both his most likely rivals had beaten restricted company.  He found himself behind horses into the turn, then was checked sharply.  Finally a seam opened as they turned for home, he split horses and burst to the front and drew off. 

I was trying to be conservative today with my betting, so I only had the minimum on the 8/5 favorite, but hey, I WON!  Next up was the second race from the Jersey Shore.  I doubled the bet on Hug A Tree who was a Monmouth Park 40% Club play, second off the claim for trainer Claudio Gonazlez.  Led at 9/5 into the lane with a soft opening quarter (:22.4) but couldn't last....faltered to third.  The 2nd at the Spa was next where liked Madd Exchange from the Todd Pletcher barn.  I was a bit leery because he'd debuted at Gulfstream and had NOT won - that's most unusual.  Even more worrisome was in his second start down here last winter he did not score again.  Pletcher rested her until a few weeks ago, but she came up a neck short at Monmouth.  To me however, I was willing to give her one more chance because all three of those starts were in Maiden Special company and today was her first time for a tag.  She stalked three wide, moved four wide through the turn, dueled to the final 16th of a mile and was just up in time. 

Paid a short $3.40, but again, I win and cashed a ticket...this time for close to $20.  Back to Monmouth where Da Bears ran second at even money, but I got my third winner on my menu when back to Saratoga for an allowance on the turf.  Storm was my pick in this 9 furlong event.  He had debuted for Pletcher-Castellano over the turf at Aqueduct and won.  Was away from the grass until two races back in allowance company at Belmont....went wire to wire at today's nine furlongs to score again.  Then last time out he cut back to a mile and beat nw2x company again....a perfect 3-for-3 on the grass and two sharp works.  He sat in fifth today to the turn, rallied steadily while five wide through the turn and surged late to get up in time as the 8/5 favorite. 

I thought considering he was Pletcher-Castellano AND perfect on the grass that $5.30 was more than generous.  I had double the bet so I collected nearly $30.  It was an hour and a half before I celebrated again, but only three races went by on the sheet - my "best" of the day at Saratoga, a Pletcher second time maiden two-year-old, Two Weeks Off, was second best behind an upset pick that Dave Liftin had pointed out (bet down from 5/1 to 8/5); then I dueled from gate into the stretch in Gulfstreams first of the two Florida Sire Stakes with Katie's Kiss at 2/1 - weakened late to be third.  And at Monmouth I dueled three wide through the far turn and faded to sixth.  But in the 6th at Monmouth I scored with another Paco Lopez mount. Walk Away Slow was a two-year-old debut runner from the top barn of Eddie Plesa, an outfit that Lopez was scoring at 30% with.  Steady works since early May including a sharp gate work made him look tough to me.  He dueled to midstretch and then cleared the field to run away as the 8/5 favorite. 

Another near $30 went into my account!  Missed in back-to-back Gulfstream races when Bathazar was second best on the turf and then Marty Wolfson's Derek's Girl was a dismal 7th in the sixth in Hallandale.  Back to upstate New York where they loaded into the gate for a turf event, 8 1/2 furlongs for maiden special two-year-olds.  I picked Pletcher'd Designed For War, a son of top turf sire War Front, at 7/2 in the program.  I thought I'd get a good price because while Pletcher rules the 2yo maiden specials, nearly all his success comes on the dirt.  He has "only" about a 30% strike rate on the turf, and "everyone" knows this, so this is where you can sometimes get a price.  New York analyst Andy Serling pointed this out in the pre-race commentary, but the crowd wasn't fooled, he went off as the 3/2 favorite.  Javier Castellano literally stole the race.  The fractions he laid down on the lead were criminally pedestrian - :25, :50, 1:15....easily broke away at the top of the lane when the pack began seriously running.  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  My fifth win of the day, and another $25 in the bank.  Right back in my next selection - though it wasn't for about an hour - in the ninth at Monmouth.  This AOC nw1x turf sprint was my "BEST BET of the DAY!"  Lucky Rascal was lightly raced, and had had a poor debut.  But since then he seemed to have turned the corner.  He romped in his maiden win off the shelf and then was a good second in his first try vs. winners.  He tried turf for the first time in a starter allowance last time out and wired the field while setting blistering fractions.  It looked to me like Paco Lopez would have him LONG GONE from his inside draw.  But when they broke out of the gate a long shot insisted on the lead and Lopez allowed that rival to take control while he shifted outside that one and pressed the pace. A stretch duel developed but Lucky Rascal was the best and edged away late. 

The $4.20 payoff netted me over $40 with my prime time investment!  Less than ten minutes later I hit my third winner in a row at Gulfstream.  It was another two-year-old Maiden Special and while finding those kind of winners in South Florida is much more difficult than at Saratoga, or even Monmouth for that matter, I thought Ekati's Phaeton looked sharp in here off her best-of-23 bullet work in a smoking :59.4 time for five furlongs.  Let me tell you something, anything under 1 minute for a five furlong work is impressive no matter what kind of runner you are!  It was a race-long duel and exciting to watch that led to a PHOTO FINISH! 

I thought as I watched it live I might have won, and in the first replay while still not positive I still thought maybe I was in front.  But when the close-up slo-mo replay came on it was clear....I WIN!  The tenthat Monmouth was a one-mile allowance event and I had Souper Scoop.  Made what looked like a big winning move off the turn into the lane to challenge the leader, but was only second best on the wire.  No worries, right back to the winner's circle at Saratoga.  The 9th was a turf sprint and I like Larry Rivelli's Richie's Sweetheart on the rail. She had set a track record at Arlington when sailing along on the front end through sizzling splits.  Rivelli runners often run well at Arlington, and very often on the turf.  But he next to never ventures to New York with his horses.  I thought the fact that he showed up here with this filly, shooting for a bigger purse, indicate he thought highly of her.  And with top rider Javier Castellano taking the mount, I was even more confident.  Right to the front, wire to wire while never being shown the whip! 

I thought I might get a fair rice, but she went off at 7/5.  Still, the nearly $25 added to the growing stock pile of cash!  My top pick in the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks scratched and I considered taking my second choice who I had had a difficult time separating from my top choice, but decided against it.....she walked with it - sigh.  But I hit my lone stakes winner of the day next up in the featured Dr. Fager Stakes at Gulfstream.  Over the last several years trainer Stanley Gold and the Jacks Are Better Farm have dominated the Florida Stallion Stakes.  Today Gold sent out three high quality colts in the Dr. Fager, but I liked Sing Praises who had been a good second in his debut despite a slow start, then won his maiden in the Birdonthewire Stakes!  He looked to be the speed of the race and I read that Gold thought all three of his colts were sharp and ready, but that he liked this one best.  He'd work a sub one-minute five furlongs for this and had a field best 80 Beyer in that maiden win.  Despite the outside draw Sing Praises broke on top, and went wire to wire under a confident hand ride.  Although I must say that at the end he seemed to be slowing down despite steady urging, so maybe he's a play against when they stretch to seven furlongs in the next leg of the series. 

But today, he paid $3.00 and I cashed again, this time for $15 with my NINTH win of the day.  The last bet of the day was in Saratoga's feature, the Grade 2 Fourstardave.  I'd won this two years in a row with Wise Dan, but he'd had emergency colic surgery about six weeks ago and while they thought he might make this race, he was not at 100% so his connections passed.  I was trying to find someone to beat Silver Max, who looked to be the favorite, but I thought would have pace pressure.  But the longer I looked at the race I thought his rail draw and quality speed would get him to the front and carry him to the wire.  He as in front, but was forced to run very quickly while being pressed to the far turn.  As they hit the stretch he gave it up and finished sixth.

So for the day  was nine of eighteen, with four seconds and two thirds and made a profit of well over $30!  A wonderful day of handicapping!