Monday, August 4, 2014

August 2

Whitney Handicap Day/WVa Derby Day
 
Today was one of the biggest days of the Saratoga summer meet, and it was THE signature day at Mountaineer Race Track where they were hosting the Grade 2 West Virginia Derby and multiple stakes on the undercard.  Typically, especially with my Mom in town, we'd head to Gulfstream today to watch and play the races - she loves to go to the track and casino.  But with Brad & Julie in town and today being the only full day they'd be here I decided I would play online and take Mom to the races next week.....she honestly doesn't mind if it's a bunch of $5K claimers running or graded stakes horses :)  But, with all the big races I handicapped both Saratoga and Mountaineer in addition to the Monmouth card.  By mid morning we'd decided that we would be going to a 2 pm movie ("Guardians of the Universe" - which was actually really good, and - side note - opened to over $100 million this weekend making it the biggest August-opening film of ALL TIME!).  I figured we'd be home by 4:30 and I'd be able to watch the replays, maybe a few live races and make the rest of my bets online before we went to dinner.  But the film ran long, we didn't get home until nearly 5 pm and left within twenty minutes for a family dinner at Outback.  Didn't get home until after 7:30 pm so I didn't watch any racing until early evening.  Here's what I saw......

My first two selections were both from the Jersey Shore.  In the 3rd I doubled the bet on Hampton Bays Sun who had all four of his best figure races HERE and had an 8/4-0-1 record locally.....including six wins at today's one-mile distance.  He stalked the leaders at a generous 3/1 price, made his move turning for home and dueled all the way to the wire, but was just out-finished.....second.  Grrrrrr.  In the 4th I doubled the investment again, this time on Slow Heart Break.  He'd wired a maiden claiming field here.  Since then he'd been in two turns and/or allowance company.  Today he was back in a sprint, in for a tag, AND going in two-lifetime company.  Again a fair price at 5/2 he took them gate to mid-stretch before being run down by the favorite, second AGAIN.  The next race on the sheet was from Mountaineer where Uncle Todd looked to be the speed of the race.  His last out 102 speed figure towered over his rivals n this West Virginia's Chairman's Cup event.  Indeed, he was gunned to the front, in clear by three turning for home, but shortened stride late to be a tiring third as the 2/1 co-favorite.  Finally got my first win of the day at Saratoga.  The 4th race was a nw1x allowance-optional claiming event.  My pick was Tokyo Time who had broken her maiden at Gulfstream and then lost in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride by a neck.  She went winless through her next four, but scored last out in an allowance spot, a nw1x.  She had ascending Beyer figures, got top rider Javier Castellano and qualified to run right back in the condition she just won because of a stipulation in the conditions that read, ".....or have never won three lifetime...."  Right to the front despite the outside draw and when they turned for home and the pack began to make their move, Castellano gave Tokyo Time her cue and she re-broke to win going away! 

Paid a very nice $7.80 so I cashed for nearly $40!  Missed on two more - the 5th at the Spa was a 2-year-old Maiden Special, and of course I had a Todd Pletcher debut runner. Royal Son broke on top, led to the turn, was passed, rated on the rail and re-rallied inside the final 16th but couldn't get to the winner, another second place finish.  In the 6th at Monmouth I had Any Valid Saturday who was a "prime time" player for me.  Debuted as the even money favorite in Maiden Special company and dueled before weakening to be fourth.  Dropped into a claiming event, turns back a 16th of a mile for top trainer Eddie Plesa who is a Monmouth 40% Club with turnback runners - if this counts as such.  Dueled to the turn at even money, but faded again.....sixth.  Ouch.  In the sixth at Saratoga we were on the turf again and I thought the obvious choice was Granny Mc's Kitten.  She had been a close second in her Spa 2-year-old turf debut then broke her maiden in the PG Johnson Stakes.  She'd run well since, but this marked the first start outside of stakes company.  She was coming off the shelf, but Chad Brown is always strong with layoff runners, and got top rider Javier Castellano.  She was well back early on, which I did not anticipate, but Castellano knows what he's doing. Rallied FIVE WIDE into the lane and was up in time as MUCH the best.  She didn't fool the crowd as they pounded her down to even money. 

Paid $4.30 - love that NYRA nickel round-up! - and with my triple bet she paid over $30 for me!  Right back in the winner's circle, this time at Mountaineer.  I looked at the pp's again for Sassy Kitten after finding out that this W Va Senate President's Cup Stakes was off the turf.  But I still felt confident enough with Michael Maker's runner.  Stalked to the turn, took over and blasted way from the field as an easy winner. 

And at a nice 7/2 that paid $9.60, I collected nearly $25!  Four disappointments followed - not only because I didn't win but because late in the race I had every chance with what was the best horse.....In the De La Rose Stakes Saratoga Horse-for-the-Course Dayatthespa went right to the front and led to deep stretch, long gone at the16th pole at a huge 2/1 price.  Only to be nailed in the final strides.....cost me over $60.  Missed with a Pletcher MSW juvenile at Monmouth who was 10/1 and ran like it.  Then back at Mountaineer I twas the Senator Robert Byrd Memorial - a listed event - and I went with multiple graded stakes winner Delauney.....prime time bet!  Pressed to the top of the lane, the rider asked and no response.....flat to the wire.  Kind of suspected something was up when regular rider Rosie Napravnik, who was at Mountaineer today, did NOT ride.  Then in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt at Saratoga, Happy My Way was the clear sped.  He went right to the front, led by three open lengths at the top of the stretch and was nailed in the final 100 yards.....sigh.....can't win with the front-runner, can't win with the presser.  Finally, back to cashing tickets; this time in the co-featured Grade 1 Test Stakes.  The more I'd looked at the Form the more it just seemed like this was NOT a race to over-think.  Sweet Reason was coming off a Grade 1 win in the Acorn; she'd won the Grade 1 Spinaway HERE last summer.  She was the lone Grade 1 winner in the field - duh.  I doubled the bet in anticipation of a short price because I didn't have so much confidence to up the ante and didn't want to risk a lot to win a little.  Oh if I'd only been at the races watching live.  Somehow the crowd let her go off at better than 2/1!  She rallied from mid-pack - as is her style - split horses at the top of the stretch and was driving five-wide at the finish to clear the field and win going away!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

The $6.20 payoff generated over $30 for me!  Next was my "Bet of the Day at Monmouth."  Evolution Rocks was a stakes winner and had kept nothing but top company this winter and spring.  He'd was dropping into an allowance and he was making his second start at the Jersey Shore for Jorge Navarro - that's an 80% win angle!  I went $30 to win....led handily into the stretch, clear by daylight at 6/5 and I'm already counting my money......but the closest rival would not give up and 'Rocks finally succumbed in the final jumps.  I really thought the jockey didn't push him fully to the wire......as Jeff said when we later talked, "...he should have been shot for the way he handled that horse..."  I then had the biggest disappointment of the day when the top older handicap horse in the country, Palace Malice failed to fire at 4/5 in the featured Grade 1 Whitney at Saratoga.  Trainer Todd Pletcher had said they were worried about different factors in his first three starts, which were all impressive scores, but that today was the first time they were not concerned about any issues that might compromise his chances.  Going down the backstretch he just didn't look to be moving comfortably to me.  This in spite of having run very well over the Spa track last summer.  Just didn't have it - sixth.  Wow.  But I came right back to win again in the featured West Virginia Derby - though it wasn't without a little drama and breath-holding!  My pick was Tapiture who had won last out in the Grade 3 Matt Winn and got Rosie Napravnik back in the irons.  While he'd never won at this nine furlong distance, the way he'd finished going 8 1/2 furlongs suggested to me it would not be an issue.  Rosie had him rating along the rail while co-favored Candy Boy (who had been my pick in the Kentucky Derby) was moving strongly along the outside of pace-setting Vicar's In Trouble.  As they turned for home Napravnik had a seam on the rail but seemed to hesitate.  Candy Boy drew nearly even with the leader; the hole was there, Rosie sent Tapiture into it, but then the hole closed!  Checked hard, Napravnik jerked the right rein and pulled Tapiture into a hard right hand turn; swung three wide and now he had room to run.  But we were a full length behind Candy Boy now and less than a 16th to go!  The colt seemed to understand exactly what was needed and he accelerated in a dead sprint to the wire.....PHOTO FINISH!  Watching it live I thought I probably didn't win, but it was very unclear where the finish line was.  The first replay I was unsure, but the super-slow-motion replay when they zoomed in I could tell, yeah, that's me in front at the wire!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

He paid a nice $5.60 and I'd doubled the bet, so it was almost another $30!  Two races left on the sheet.....first was the West Virginia House Speaker where we were going a mile-70 on the turf.  Regally Ready just looked TONS the best to me.  He was a former Breeders' Cup Champion and has learned to rate off the speed going two turns.  He was a prime time winner for me in his last in a stakes at Churchill so I tripled the bet.  But as I watched the replay and the gate came on the screen, uh oh, we were on the main track!  How would this confirmed turf runner handle it.  As the field finished loading I thought to myself, well, (a) he always works well on the dirt, and (b) if trainer Steve Asmussen leaves him in to run on the dirt he must feel he still has a good chance.  Good chance?  Oh no my friends, he sat about three off the front runners into the turn and then Rosie Napravnik shook the reins and he blew by three wide to the front.  Through the stretch he expanded his lead with each and every stride, winning by over a dozen lengths in hand! 

And the best part......since the race was moved to the main bettors were unsure about him and let him go at 5/2!  He paid a whopping $7.80 (nearly 3/1!) and I cashed for almost $60 with my triple bet!  And in the last race of the day it was the Lure Stakes at Saratoga.  Big Blue Kitten was a Grade 1 winner facing listed stakes runners.  BUT....he had not been out since the November Breeders' Cup.  And to complicate matters he is a deep closer so his chances are dependent on pace and racing luck/trip.  Joe Bravo had him dead last as they hit the far turn, but he was in high gear as they flew around the turn.  Then his big decision, I groaned out loud when he dove inside.....now he'll have to weave through traffic!  But inside the 16th pole a seam opened up he exploded to the front and was up in time! 

He was the 8/5 favorite and the $5.40 pay off netted me over $40.  For the day I had won an amazing seven of eighteen, nearly 40%.  But with losses with two "prime time" bets (Any Given Saturday and Delauney), a $30 bet (Evolution Rocks) and my "Bet of the Day" ($50 on Palace Malice) I felt fortunate that I was only down a shade over $20 for the day.

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