August 9

A HUGE Day Of Handicapping!

After the slow start on Wednesday, I picked up the pace today on winners.  Let's just get the numbers out there right off the bat......

18 selections / 9 WINS / 50% 

 

Whoooo hoooo!  Let's take a look at how this all came about.  First, the day was not off to a great start as today was the day my Mom, sister, & niece all headed back to Ohio.  As I said to Kim on the way home from the airport, the one thing that is true about when my family heads back home is that you can no longer fool yourself into thinking it's still summer vacation time - school is starting and a new year of work is about to begin. 

Summer 2014 - A Great Two Plus Months With Family & Friends

 

But, I added, one of the great perks to being retired is that for me, the summer still has many weeks left!  I had considered going to the races today as it was the first leg of the Florida Sire Series (formerly the Florida Stallion Stakes at Calder), but I really didn't want to take Kim's car out to Gulfstream and I thought I might miss the first race or so.  Plus, I just didn't think I had that many selections to keep me occupied all day long.  So I decide on a day of racing online.  I handicapped the Monmouth card, obviously, and added the Saratoga card to the Gulfstream one; and then I decided to look at Delaware to perhaps give me a few more races during the times I would not have selections at the other three.  The first race on the menu was the opener at Gulfstream.  Bold Perspective had won four of his last six races and six of eighteen.  He had run three times in open company and both his most likely rivals had beaten restricted company.  He found himself behind horses into the turn, then was checked sharply.  Finally a seam opened as they turned for home, he split horses and burst to the front and drew off. 

I was trying to be conservative today with my betting, so I only had the minimum on the 8/5 favorite, but hey, I WON!  Next up was the second race from the Jersey Shore.  I doubled the bet on Hug A Tree who was a Monmouth Park 40% Club play, second off the claim for trainer Claudio Gonazlez.  Led at 9/5 into the lane with a soft opening quarter (:22.4) but couldn't last....faltered to third.  The 2nd at the Spa was next where liked Madd Exchange from the Todd Pletcher barn.  I was a bit leery because he'd debuted at Gulfstream and had NOT won - that's most unusual.  Even more worrisome was in his second start down here last winter he did not score again.  Pletcher rested her until a few weeks ago, but she came up a neck short at Monmouth.  To me however, I was willing to give her one more chance because all three of those starts were in Maiden Special company and today was her first time for a tag.  She stalked three wide, moved four wide through the turn, dueled to the final 16th of a mile and was just up in time. 

Paid a short $3.40, but again, I win and cashed a ticket...this time for close to $20.  Back to Monmouth where Da Bears ran second at even money, but I got my third winner on my menu when back to Saratoga for an allowance on the turf.  Storm was my pick in this 9 furlong event.  He had debuted for Pletcher-Castellano over the turf at Aqueduct and won.  Was away from the grass until two races back in allowance company at Belmont....went wire to wire at today's nine furlongs to score again.  Then last time out he cut back to a mile and beat nw2x company again....a perfect 3-for-3 on the grass and two sharp works.  He sat in fifth today to the turn, rallied steadily while five wide through the turn and surged late to get up in time as the 8/5 favorite. 

I thought considering he was Pletcher-Castellano AND perfect on the grass that $5.30 was more than generous.  I had double the bet so I collected nearly $30.  It was an hour and a half before I celebrated again, but only three races went by on the sheet - my "best" of the day at Saratoga, a Pletcher second time maiden two-year-old, Two Weeks Off, was second best behind an upset pick that Dave Liftin had pointed out (bet down from 5/1 to 8/5); then I dueled from gate into the stretch in Gulfstreams first of the two Florida Sire Stakes with Katie's Kiss at 2/1 - weakened late to be third.  And at Monmouth I dueled three wide through the far turn and faded to sixth.  But in the 6th at Monmouth I scored with another Paco Lopez mount. Walk Away Slow was a two-year-old debut runner from the top barn of Eddie Plesa, an outfit that Lopez was scoring at 30% with.  Steady works since early May including a sharp gate work made him look tough to me.  He dueled to midstretch and then cleared the field to run away as the 8/5 favorite. 

Another near $30 went into my account!  Missed in back-to-back Gulfstream races when Bathazar was second best on the turf and then Marty Wolfson's Derek's Girl was a dismal 7th in the sixth in Hallandale.  Back to upstate New York where they loaded into the gate for a turf event, 8 1/2 furlongs for maiden special two-year-olds.  I picked Pletcher'd Designed For War, a son of top turf sire War Front, at 7/2 in the program.  I thought I'd get a good price because while Pletcher rules the 2yo maiden specials, nearly all his success comes on the dirt.  He has "only" about a 30% strike rate on the turf, and "everyone" knows this, so this is where you can sometimes get a price.  New York analyst Andy Serling pointed this out in the pre-race commentary, but the crowd wasn't fooled, he went off as the 3/2 favorite.  Javier Castellano literally stole the race.  The fractions he laid down on the lead were criminally pedestrian - :25, :50, 1:15....easily broke away at the top of the lane when the pack began seriously running.  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  My fifth win of the day, and another $25 in the bank.  Right back in my next selection - though it wasn't for about an hour - in the ninth at Monmouth.  This AOC nw1x turf sprint was my "BEST BET of the DAY!"  Lucky Rascal was lightly raced, and had had a poor debut.  But since then he seemed to have turned the corner.  He romped in his maiden win off the shelf and then was a good second in his first try vs. winners.  He tried turf for the first time in a starter allowance last time out and wired the field while setting blistering fractions.  It looked to me like Paco Lopez would have him LONG GONE from his inside draw.  But when they broke out of the gate a long shot insisted on the lead and Lopez allowed that rival to take control while he shifted outside that one and pressed the pace. A stretch duel developed but Lucky Rascal was the best and edged away late. 

The $4.20 payoff netted me over $40 with my prime time investment!  Less than ten minutes later I hit my third winner in a row at Gulfstream.  It was another two-year-old Maiden Special and while finding those kind of winners in South Florida is much more difficult than at Saratoga, or even Monmouth for that matter, I thought Ekati's Phaeton looked sharp in here off her best-of-23 bullet work in a smoking :59.4 time for five furlongs.  Let me tell you something, anything under 1 minute for a five furlong work is impressive no matter what kind of runner you are!  It was a race-long duel and exciting to watch that led to a PHOTO FINISH! 

I thought as I watched it live I might have won, and in the first replay while still not positive I still thought maybe I was in front.  But when the close-up slo-mo replay came on it was clear....I WIN!  The tenthat Monmouth was a one-mile allowance event and I had Souper Scoop.  Made what looked like a big winning move off the turn into the lane to challenge the leader, but was only second best on the wire.  No worries, right back to the winner's circle at Saratoga.  The 9th was a turf sprint and I like Larry Rivelli's Richie's Sweetheart on the rail. She had set a track record at Arlington when sailing along on the front end through sizzling splits.  Rivelli runners often run well at Arlington, and very often on the turf.  But he next to never ventures to New York with his horses.  I thought the fact that he showed up here with this filly, shooting for a bigger purse, indicate he thought highly of her.  And with top rider Javier Castellano taking the mount, I was even more confident.  Right to the front, wire to wire while never being shown the whip! 

I thought I might get a fair rice, but she went off at 7/5.  Still, the nearly $25 added to the growing stock pile of cash!  My top pick in the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks scratched and I considered taking my second choice who I had had a difficult time separating from my top choice, but decided against it.....she walked with it - sigh.  But I hit my lone stakes winner of the day next up in the featured Dr. Fager Stakes at Gulfstream.  Over the last several years trainer Stanley Gold and the Jacks Are Better Farm have dominated the Florida Stallion Stakes.  Today Gold sent out three high quality colts in the Dr. Fager, but I liked Sing Praises who had been a good second in his debut despite a slow start, then won his maiden in the Birdonthewire Stakes!  He looked to be the speed of the race and I read that Gold thought all three of his colts were sharp and ready, but that he liked this one best.  He'd work a sub one-minute five furlongs for this and had a field best 80 Beyer in that maiden win.  Despite the outside draw Sing Praises broke on top, and went wire to wire under a confident hand ride.  Although I must say that at the end he seemed to be slowing down despite steady urging, so maybe he's a play against when they stretch to seven furlongs in the next leg of the series. 

But today, he paid $3.00 and I cashed again, this time for $15 with my NINTH win of the day.  The last bet of the day was in Saratoga's feature, the Grade 2 Fourstardave.  I'd won this two years in a row with Wise Dan, but he'd had emergency colic surgery about six weeks ago and while they thought he might make this race, he was not at 100% so his connections passed.  I was trying to find someone to beat Silver Max, who looked to be the favorite, but I thought would have pace pressure.  But the longer I looked at the race I thought his rail draw and quality speed would get him to the front and carry him to the wire.  He as in front, but was forced to run very quickly while being pressed to the far turn.  As they hit the stretch he gave it up and finished sixth.

So for the day  was nine of eighteen, with four seconds and two thirds and made a profit of well over $30!  A wonderful day of handicapping!