September 27

This weekend we were in Houston and had a wonderful time with "our kids," Jeff and Antoinette, but the best of times with our grandson, Cameron.  But, this was a huge weekend of racing as there were EIGHT Grade 1 races serving as Breeders' Cup prep races on Saturday and two more on Sunday.  I handicapped twenty-one stakes races for Saturday and found selections that I thought warranted an investment in thirteen of them.  I played the races online in the morning and then watched a few of them before we headed out for Jeff's football game Saturday afternoon and then watched the remainder of them once we had returned home.  Let's take a look at how the races turned out......  The fourth at Belmont was the Grade 2 Kelso Handicap at a one-turn mile that would serve as a measuring stick for race favorite Itsmyluckyday.  A big performance here would probably earn him a trip to the Breeders' Cup Classic.  A solid performance would send him in all likelihood to the Breeders' Cup Mile.  It had seemed to me - as I'd never been a big fan of him in top flight company - that he'd finally turned the corner and was now a big-time player....he'd won the Grade 1 Woodward in his last as my top choice.  Today he was sent off as the 3/5 choice and I thought he looked much the best.  He was even top New York handicapper Dave Liftin's "BEST" of the day.  He tracked the leader into the far turn, but when it came time to run he just ran evenly and I thought was fortunate to finish third.  My next bet came in the Grade 1 Beldame where I picked Stopchargingmaria to beat older for the first time. Since last winter I have thought she was a cut below the top sophomores, but trainer Todd Pletcher has done a magnificent job of spotting her in graded stakes where the competition was suspect.  And in so doing she'd run off the Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan, the Grade 1 Coaching Club of America Oaks, and the Grade 1 Alabama (all as my pick!).  She was the second choice last weekend in the Grade 1 Cotillion and I was FIRMLY against her, but Pletcher wise opted against running in that race with super-filly Untapable running, and tried older here where there were no stars.  My only fear was that the winner of the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap, Belle Gantry, would shake loose on the front end.  She'd upset the Del 'Cap & Princess of Sylmar when no one went with her so I was certain that they would not let her do that again.  But she did, and they did....she was loose on an easy lead and waltzed around the trak while Stopcharingmaria chased all the way without a pace to run into, third.  In the seventh at Belmont I went with Alterite in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl.  This Chad Brown filly had last been seen in the Grade 1 Beverly D at Arlington on Million Day and had been nearly everyone's "Bet of the Day" (including mine).  She had run so very poorly that day that you just had to draw a line through that.  If Brown was running her back her and she returned to the kind of form she showed last year she was going to be a nice price to win.  She was at 6/1.  She was perfectly placed in third ready to pounce turning for home, but then had no punch at all.  She was in third the length of the stretch, but stopped in the final 100 yards to finish seventh.  The day is NOT going the way I had foreseen it!

The eighth at Laurel was The Jameela Stakes, a six furlong sprint on the Maryland grass course.  I have supported Madame Giry on a number of occasions and she's been good to me most of the time.  Today she looked like a slam dunk on paper as she was the top rated runner in every Brisnet category and is the defending champ.  She is also 3-for-4 at this distance on the turf and had a best-of-25 bullet work.  The only concern I had was her late running style which could be compromised by racing luck or a poor pace set-up.  But her "Prime Power" advantage on the Brisnet scale was 144.6-137.0 and a difference like that nearly always points out a winner.  I doubled the bet.  True to form she was near the back as they hit the far turn, but then she hit high gear and was picking off horses one by one.  As they turned for home she was blocked without a seam, but at the furlong marker she split horses and exploded to the front with a 16th to go.  A filly had a huge run on the inside and through the final 50 yards it was a great stretch battle.....PHOTO FINISH! 

I thought I'd won on the live shot, and in the slow-mo replay I thought I'd won, but it was VERY close.  The results were posted - she won! She was a short-priced favorite but I still collected nearly $20.  The Grade 1 Vosburgh was next at Belmont, a prep for the BC Sprint.  I thought it was a wide open affair and would have loved to back Private Zone who'd upset the field last year as my top choice, but unlike last year he was NOT the lone speed.  I thought this set the race up for the favorite, Palace, who had won back-to-back Grade 1 events and in spite of my feelings that he had no shot in the Breeders' Cup, he seemed best here.  Well, Private Zone dueled the length of the stretch and was up in the shadow of the wire while Palace was an even third at 6/5.  Off to Louisville next where their feature for older horses was the Homecoming Classic.  I was first drawn to the race because it seemed a perfect spot for Departing.  He had been expertly managed by trainer Al Stall just as Pletcher had managed Stopchargingmaria.  He had won a boatload of stakes races, many graded, by avoiding the top sophomores last year.  This non-graded event seemed a perfect spot.  But then I looked at he past performances and I thought that Cigar Street was sitting on a HUGE race.  He had won his maiden by an amazing thirteen lengths and went right to the 2012 Louisiana Derby for his first try against winners.  He was beaten a mere two lengths.  Off for eight months he dazzled in three straight Gulfstream events, topped by the Grade 3 Skip Away which earned him a huge 115 figure.  But he was off from March 2013 until a month ago where he was second best on a muddy track while three clear of the field.  I thought, especially on a fast track, that he was going to run a big race here.  Sure enough, he pressed the pace of another of my favorites, Bradester to the top of the lane.  When Departing started making his move from off the pace it was too late as Cigar Street was already in full flight to the wire.  When he found another gear at the 16th pole all hope for the rest of the field was lost.  And the best part was, he was better than 2/1 on the board! 

The $6.80 payoff returned over $50 to my account as Id tripled the bet!  I came right back to score again, this time in the Grade 1 Hirsch Turf Cup going a mile and a half at Belmont.  This would serve as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Turf.  But, as I wrote in my analysis, the field here proved one thing to me.....the Euros will have easy pickings in the BC Turf.  The best here looked to be Main Sequence, who ironically was average in Europe, but had come over here and won back-to-back Grade 1 events.  He always made it close on the wire, but always found a way to be in front when it counted.  The same thing again today.  He moved four wide into the stretch and was wearing down former world-record holder at the distance Twilight Agenda as they approached the wire and JUST edged clear in the final strides.....three straight photo wins in three Grade 1 events! 

I did not have a lot of confidence that he'd win again - I like to see wins with authority! - but I did think he had enough of an edge to invest.  So the $5.90 payoff only returned $12 and change to my account.  The lone play of the day at Gulfstream was in their feature, The Wasted Tears.  Angelica Zapata was the clear favorite and would be an even stronger win candidate if it came off the turf.  She was sent off at 3/2 but was only second best chasing a loose on the lead winner. 

By now the racing was underway at Santa Anita.  here I had three strong plays in their Breeders' Cup Prep races.  The first was in the fifth race on the card, the Grade 1 Zenyatta - a prep for the BC Distaff.  Defending Distaff champion and Horse-for-the-Course Beholder was making her first start since June but she had been working lights out.  I thought she was an easy winner over four of the five challengers with only probable pace-setting Iotopa a danger.  When that one broke slowly I knew I was home free.  Though to be fair, the long-shot front runner battled back through the final sixteenth to make Beholder work all the way to the wire.  But, let's also be honest, Beholder was never pushed for an all-out effort.  This should set her up for a big effort in the Breeders' Cup and ran her local record to 9/8-1-0. 

The crowd was having nothing to do with any of the others so the payoff was a paltry $2.80.  My "prime time" investment returned almost $30.  However I must add that she was 1/9 through most of the betting so the 2/5 final price was most appreciated!  I had a pick in the sixth, the Grade 1 Forerunner - a prep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  Two-year-old American Pharoah had disappointed in his debut, but came right back to break his maiden in THE GRADE 1 DEL MAR FUTURITY!  This would be his first try around two turns, but his daddy, Pioneerof the Nile, had been a multiple graded stakes winner around two turns.  My original plan was to bet the minimum.  But when I saw that he was Brad Free's "BEST" of the day, I doubled the investment.  He popped right out of the gate and zipped to the front.  The fractions were honest and he had mild pressure, but looked to me like he was running well within himself throughout  Midway through the far turn the stalkers and closers made their move and they were within a length or less as heads turned for home.  But then the rider shook the reins and he took off again with a burst of acceleration that was impressive!  My FIFTH win of the day! 

He too had been the favorite so the reward was not much, but I've come to understand that by playing conservatively with just stakes races and with only the most probable of winners my Fall statistics are probably going to reflect a high win percentage without a lot of financial gain.  I'm ok with that as I'm trying to enjoy the "break" before the Gulfstream Championship Meet opens in December where I'll be on a daily handicapping program again.  The next was my "BET of the DAY" in the Laurel Dash going six furlongs on the turf.  Ben's Cat is a 27-time winner and he loves this course.  He'd had really bad luck in the Grade 3 Turf Monster last out when he was blocked, then clipped heels and nearly fell; but after that AND having to swing wide he still only loss by a neck.  For today's race both the trainer and jockey were exceptionally confident.  He looked like the easiest of winners on paper.  He was staking from off the pace as they hit the far turn, but that's when I first spotted trouble.  Normally when he begins to run it is effortless as he picks off horses and blows by.  Today he was gaining ground but was being pushed hard by the rider.  Still, at the top of the lane he was in third, only two plus off the leaders.....a big stretch kick and we're home free.  But it never happened, evenly to the wire.  Afterwards I read that both the rider and trainer were at a loss as to why, but agreed he just didn't show up.  And that's highly unusual for Ben's Cat, particularly over this course.  The next race on the selection sheet was the Grade 1 Awesome Again, a prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic.  The race featured unbeaten superstar Shared Belief.  In all six of his career wins he's had to answer some new question, but has always been clear to the wire.  Today would be his first try over the Santa Anita dirt, and only his second test on dirt and second time against older.  Mike Smith had him break smoothly out of the gate and he was just off the leader, Bob Baffert's Fed Biz, heading into the clubhouse turn.  Then you saw the strategy unfold.  Baffert's uncoupled entry, Sky Kingdom was pressing the leader and as they hit the turn he floated five wide through the turn, sacrificing ground to the leader, but carrying Shared Belief some six plus wide, giving his stable mate a huge advantage.  Smith didn't panic and tracked four wide down the backstretch. They hit the turn and no one was saving ground; the only way to win this was to go wide, AGAIN.  Smith asked Shared Belief and he began gobbling up ground while spun six-wide into the stretch.  Even track announcer Trevor Denman called, "....let's see if Shared Belief can do it again in spite of giving ground all the way...."  The colt collared leader Fed Biz at the 1/8th pole, but that one would not go away and it was head up and head down to the final twenty yards before one last push by the sophomore put him first on the wire! 

I had upped the investment to "prime time-plus" and had $25 to win.  He was a short $2.40 payoff, but I still was happy to be right, AGAIN, and collect $30.  The last race was the Unzip Me down the hill and my pick On The Backstreets ran fifth at 9/5.  So for the day I was six-for-thirteen, an excellent 46% and considering the loss by Ben's Cat I was happy with the small loss.  Check out the replays of the winning selections on the video recap below.

Next week is Opening Week at Keeneland and it's "Fall-Stars Weekend" with NINE graded stakes, seven of them "Breeders' Cup Win and You're In" events from Friday through Sunday.  We will be in Orlando for Brad's birthday weekend and a day at Disney, but I will be on the hunt again as now we're only a month away from the World Championships!

September 20

Pennsylvania Derby Day

 

The past two years this day has produced many winners for me, and so this weekend I decided to take on a full slate of handicapping selections.  I handicapped all the races at Parx, Churchill, Gulfstream, Monmouth, Belmont, and Charles Town.....not just the stakes races.  I flirted with the idea of heading out to Gulfstream for the day, especially with what looked like a light day of college football.  But in the end with a weather forecast of heavy storms for the day I finally determined that if I went I would be spending the vast majority of the day sitting (or standing) in front of a simulcast monitors.  So I stayed home.  There were so many races with close post times I had four screens open at once - see photo at the right.  The action started with three races at Parx, the first of which went off before 11:30 am.  And the final race of the day, the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks, went off at 10:30 pm - ELEVEN hours of racing!  In the opener Noah n' Jacob had come off the shelf last out and was EIGHT clear of the show horse.  Looked obvious to me, but a dull fifth at 5/2.  In the second at Parx Dancing Lion had never faced 2-lifetime company previously, so no surprise he was the 6/5 choice.  But like the first pick, a non-threatening fourth.  In the fourth in Philadelphia Wildcat Lily was first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez, ridden by Javier Castellano and was the 6/5 favorite.  Could not to get to my second choice who was winning her sixth race in her last seven starts, loose on the lead.

I was beginning to wonder if it had been such a good idea to handicap and play all of these non-stakes events when I finally cashed my first ticket of the day.  Devilish Reason had run her two best figures in Louisville, and she'd only raced in a maiden claiming event once, for a $50K tag (today was for $30K).  Calvin Borel had her stalking the leaders into the lane while hugging the rail.  As the leader floated off the wood Borel pushed his filly through the opening and she wore down the leaders to edge clear late.  She paid $5.80 and I cashed for nearly $15.  At Delaware, House Money was sent off as the prohibitive 2/5 chalk but didn't even hit the board (4th).....wow.  But then the day took on a whole new look.  In the opener at Gulfstream we were on the turf as the storms had not yet found their way to Hallandale.  Fan Base was my choice.  A full field of twelve were lined up today, but what led me to this one was the fact that the other eleven had on rare occasion hit the mid-70's on the Beyer scale, but Fan Base had run that kind of number in her last EIGHT turf routes!  I figured that she didn't need a peak effort to score, and she'd get a good spot near the front.  She did, as she crossed over before they hit the first turn and took them gate to wire!  The one thing I didn't count on was the nice price.....the $8.20 payoff led me to a cash out of over $40! 

Minutes later they were in the gate for the opener at Monmouth.  Sonofachub was the lone class dropper.  He'd debuted at this level and was second by a neck, and that came when steadied and umped.  AND he was four clear of the show runner who came back to score.  In his second start he was second again, but after being doubled in claiming price.  Stuck out like a sore thumb to me.  He was 6/5 as they went into the gate, but before they'd gone  quarter of a mile he was 1/5.  He pressed the pace to the turn and then blew by without ever being asked to run.  He was simply galloping trough the final sixteenth.  Didn't pay much, but I was happy to collect another winning payout.  Less than fifteen minutes later I was tuned into racing in New York.  The second at Belmont was a non-winners of three lifetime.  Betweenhereandcool was first off the claim for David Jacobson, who is a master of the claiming game.  If able to find his "A" game he would be long gone, and with Jacobson taking over the conditioning, I thought that was a very likely event.  It was as he pressed the pace to the turn, cruised on by and opened up to win.  And less than ten minutes later they were off at Gulfstream.  The torrential storm made it impossible to see the runners until they were into the stretch, but the chicklets on the bottom of the screen showed my pick, Solitary running away from the field to provide me with my fourth consecutive winner, and five scores from the last six races on my sheet! 

 

Less than ten minutes later the runners were off in the 6th at Parx. This starter allowance restricted to runners who'd run for $25K was loaded with several quality runners. But Dawly looked best to me.  He was dropping off of back-to-back stakes efforts and had run seven straight races that earned a Beyer of 90 or better, including a whopping 106 three back in a nw3x allowance test.  And you could make the case that the ship from New York to Parx was a hidden class drop.  Javier Castellano had him hugging the rail just off the leaders through the turn.  Two challengers went up wide to take on the dueling leaders to make it a wall of four across the track as they spun into the stretch.  But one of the reasons Castellano is the leading North American jockey was move like this when he decided NOT to go up six wide and make his move, but to wait for room at the rail.  When the seam opened he sent the even money favorite (bet down from 4/1 in the program) through to the front and that proved to be the difference in a close finish!  WHOOOO HOOOO! 

Right back in action fifteen minutes later, at Belmont for their third.  It was a non-winner's of two lifetime turf sprint going seven furlongs.  AP Johnson had never seen a claiming tag and had shown ability.  She had run a decent fifth in stakes company...against the boys earlier.  I was surprised she was allowed to go off at 4/1.  And I was disappointed that I didn't bet more when she scored and paid $10.20.  I then went through a prolonged streak of four losses over the next hour's time frame.  Off the board at Delaware at 3/1, Churchill at 12/1, Belmont as the 7/5 second choice, and a disappointing fifth at Gulfstream where I'd tripled the bet on 4/5 favorite Back To Seattle.  But, I won four of the following six races to continue to pile up strong numbers for the day.  The 8th at Parx was a nw2x allowance event.  I had tripled the bet on Chad Brown's filly, Catch My Drift.  She had won her first two starts for this top conditioner and then in spite of his usual very conservative nature, he sent her out next in the Grade 1 Alabama going a mile and a quarter.  She had been competitive until the final furlong where she faded.  I thought the drop to allowance company and the turn back to a mile and seventy yards was ideal.  She was sent off as the 4/5 favorite and she ran erratically through the final furlong, but straightened out in time to blow by the two leaders late!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

I cashed for nearly $30, but had little dime to celebrate as it was time for the first stakes race of the day, the Grade 3 Kent Stakes for 3-year-olds on the turf at Delaware Park.  Divine Oath was sent out by Todd Pletcher, and I'd had this guy not once, but twice this past winter at Gulfstream.  He looked much the best today after having run in the Grade 1 Secretariat.  He was 4/5 when then left the gate.  The local rider saved ground from the 1-hole all the way to the far turn, then rather than try to swing wide and lose valuable ground, he hugged the rail.  The top ones floated off the wood and he shot up the inside to draw clear and win!  My triple investment netted me nearly $30 again!  

After missing at Churchill with the 8/5 favorite and running second at 4/1 in the Alphabet Soup Stakes at Parx I scored my tenth winner of the day at Monmouth.  So Festive had made her first four starts in Maiden Special company, but today made her first start in for a tag.  She was second choice at 5/2 when they hit the stretch.  She'd saved ground into the lane, and now shifted out to split horses and draw clear.  The $7.40 payoff returned me almost $20. 

The sixth at Delaware was my "Best" there - typically "prime time" investments come on those horses who lay over their rivals and have established form.  But this was a maiden claiming event.  I had originally not planned to spend his much, but after I finished writing my analysis I asked myself, why not.....she was CLEARLY the horse to beat.  And so I had $20 to win on Corinthian Luck as she dropped in for a first time tag while making her first start for new trainer Juan Vasquez.....that is a 36% winning move at $3.22 ROI  She pressed the pace to mid-way on the far turn and took off as TONS the best. 

She paid better than even money and I collected over $40!  I took a shot at the "score of the day" in Belmont's 6th.  Amazing Littlelady was 12/1 in the program and left the gate at a big 8/1.  I tripled the bet as she looked like the LONE speed.  Right to the front and led them all the way into the lane.....I was calculating on cashing over $125 when she needed to spurt clear in the stretch, but instead came up empty and faded to last.....sigh.....In the subsequent five races I ran third four times and second once.  One third place finish was at a huge 19/1 in the Grade 3 Gallant Bob at Parx, but all the others were disappointing favorites.  Then it was time for the "BET of the Day"  in the Grade 1 Cotillion, a $1 million event at Parx.  Untapable is one of my very, very favorite fillies.  The only time she let me down was she tried the colts in the Haskell when I was in New Jersey.  But there were excuses that day.  Today my lone concern was that the track, like on Haskell Day had seemed to be favoring speed.  Could she rally against the apparent bias.  I felt good when after breaking sharply jockey Rosie Napravnik had her just two off the leader all the way to the far turn.  She glided up three wide to take the lead and while she didn't run off like a superstar, she ground it out to the wire probably clinching the three-year-old filly championship title with her third Grade 1 win of the year. 

I had bet $50 to win on her and was rewarded by collecting $75.  The race had just gone official when they were off in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom going 6 1/2 furlongs at Belmont.  Like last year when I'd nailed the Cotillion and come right back to score in this race.  My pick was Artemis Agrotera who was coming off back-to-back scintillating scores sprinting since coming off a layoff.  My lone concern, since she was a stalker, was if my second choice, La Verdad would steal the race as the lone speed.  As they broke out of the gate Artemis lagged way, WAY back and looked to not be wanting to pick up her feet.  Meanwhile La Verdad was handily in front by daylight.  As they turned for home Artemis was finally beginning to run, but she was double digit lengths behind AND was floated widest of all into the lane.  My only hope was the fact that the race was 6 1/2 furlongs instead of six and that the half mile had been a sizzling :43 and change.  Time was running out as my filly was simply FLYING through the lane.....PHOTO FINISH!  As I watched the replay several times I thought I'd won, but the where the wire was actually was so critical and hard to determine.  The photo result came up........

Y - E - S!!!!!!  Nearly $30 on that win!  I looked to win my third stakes in a row in the feature at Churchill, the Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes where Fiftyshadesofgold was a perfect 2-for-2 over this unique surface and 3/2-1-0 at the seven furlong distance.  She'd won a Grade 3 here on Derby Day at this distance and exited back-to-back Grade 1 events to drop into the Grade 3 test here.  In addition she'd fired a best-of-58 bullet work in a sizzling :58.3.  She was the 4/5 favorite but right away she looked so much like Artemis Agrotera as she seemed uncomfortable on the surface.  But unlike that one she never got going - 5th at 4/5.  I missed with my first play at Charles Town where 1/5 favorite In The Fairway was second in a photo finish.  But then I scored at Gulfstream.  The 9th was a maiden special for two-year-olds and at 8/1 in the program....according to the DRF linemaker.....was the first horse since last spring from top North American trainer Todd Pletcher.  I liked that he'd not simply shipped Sky Limit down here, but she'd been here as she showed works at the Palm Beach training center.  I wrote in my analysis that one thing that was certain about this race was that Sky Limit would NOT be 8/1.  Sure enough, she was the 9/5 favorite.  Still, for a Pletcher debut runner at Gulfstream, I thought this was a big price.  Like both Artemis and Fiftyshadesofgold Sky Limit lagged back.  But she was picking off horses up the rail through the far turn.  She slid off the rail and split horses with a full head of steam at the 16th pole.  Top rider Edgar Zayas eased up on her late as he knew she was home free. 

I had tripled the bet so the $5.80 payoff returned over $40 for me!  Next up was the feature at Parx, the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby.  I did not think that California Chrome had this race locked up, and in fact thought he would not win.  Twinspires was running a promotion that if he did win and your pick ran second you got your money back.  So I thought it was a great deal to take my pick, Tapiture at 6/1, where I'd doubled the bet.  I could win over $70 and if I was wrong about Chrome I'd get my money back.  Well, I was mostly right.  Chrome was a distant fifth and I ran second.  Unfortunately to win the bet I either had to win outright or run second to Chrome.  By now it was after six pm and my last few bets were strung out over the next four hours.  I scored with two more stakes at Charles Town when Lucy's Bob Boy ran to his 1/5 odds as the LONE speed and double-Beyer advantage by romping home under a gallop.  Geeky Gorgeous, who'd won the Regret Stakes for me when I was on track at Monmouth, and won the Eleven North Handicap for me just two weeks ago, was now in The Pink Ribbon here at Charles Town.  I wondered about her ability to get the seven furlongs as eleven of the twelve pp's showing were six furlongs, and the lone try beyond that she'd faded.  AND the configuration of Charles Town was a seven furlong sprint was around two turns.  But on form and figures she was a standout.  The fact she came from off the pace I thought played in her favor.  I would have liked better than 3/5 odds, but I was happy to see her romp home as tons the best, my sixteenth win!  Next week is Breeders' Cup Preview Weekend AND we will be in Houston!

September 13

Woodbine Mile Weekend

With few exceptions, it was a disappointing weekend on the racing scene.  The first selection was the Grade 3 Bold Ruler from Woodbine where Black Hornet looked like the lone speed.  While he didn't break sharply the rider didn't even try to go to the front.  Disappointing 3rd at 7/2.  In the second, Don't Leave Me was the 5/2 second choice in the Grade 2 Natalma at Woodbine going a mile on the turf for 2yo.  Evenly, never threatened, 6th.  I was sure I'd win the next race when Winning Cause was the 2/5 favorite in Parx's PHSTA President's Cup over a soft turf course.  He was coming off a win over Grade 1 winner Big Blue Kitten in his last and was clearly the best horse in the field.  Prompted the pace to the far turn then had no response through the lane....3rd.  Finally the winner's circle.  It was the Grade 3 Noble Damsel at Belmont and I went with European invader Annecdote.  The pace was very slow and he lagged at the back.....great I thought, not even a thrill for my selection.  But when they turned for home he exploded through the stretch and blew through the entire field to score at 4/1! 

The $10.20 payoff brought me back to nearly even despite the minimum play.  In the Open Mind Stakes I thought 3/2 favorite Flower Spell would control the pace from the start.  She seemed in control under Rosemary Homeister, Jr. heading into the far turn, but she ran evenly to the wire, 4th.  The highlight of the day came in Kentucky Downs' More Than Ready Mile.  Regally Ready has won many, MANY races for me and I thought he was a standout today.  He'd paid a big price last time out on the West Virginia Derby undercard when the race came off the turf, but today he was on his favorite surface.  The only question was the European style course where they run downhill down the backside and then uphill through the long Franklin, Kentucky course.  Rosie Napravnik was riding and I had a lot of confidence.  He was 6/5 with minutes to post time and I had tripled the bet.  I just had a sense that he was TONS the best, so I flipped to the handicapper's view of the field on twinspires.com and he was their "bet of the day."  I considered it, hesitated, and then went ahead and did it.....I added a $25 win bet to make it $40 to win!   He rated just off the leader to the far turn, glided to the front and then was easily best! 

His price had dropped to even money at post time, but still I cashed for $80!  Whoooo hooooo.  The Grade 3 Pucker Up at Arlington featured Aurelia's Belle who figured to be the short priced favorite.  The first sign of trouble was that with five minutes to post time she was still a cold 6/1 on the board.  Could I be that wrong?  She eventually took late money to be 3/1, but she ran to the cold odds, disappointing fifth.  Corporate Culture was my upset play of the day and went off at 5/1, but ran without any sense of urgency, evenly in 5th in the Kentucky Downs Ladies' Sprint.  The featured Grade 3 Kentucky Cup was next and I went with favorite War Dancer.  I agreed with the DRF "Race of the Day" video analysis - he was the class of the field but has disappointed many times more than he should have.  Still, I thought today was his day.  Nope, disappointed to be third at 6/5.  In the final race on the selection sheet I had planned to double the bet on I'm Already Sexy in the Kentucky Downs Ladies' Turf.  She was the class of the field and looked like she SHOULD win.  I had a similar "feel" as post time approached so I upped the bet from a double to a triple bet.  She seized control early and was cantering home easily! 

Paid even money so I cashed for $30.  And for the day I finished 3-for-10 and made two dollars.  But hey, I'm not complaining about finishing in the black.  I really thought I had two winners, at least from the three stakes races at Woodbine on their big day.  The temperature was a fall-like 57 degrees, and that was of interest to me because my plan is to be in Toronto next September for that big event!  I told myself before I handicapped the races that I should focus on the Europeans.  But there didn't seem to be any "stars" entered for today.  I have always been a big fan of The Pizza Man, but he owns Arlington Park.  How would he run against Grade 1 company over a different course?  I agreed that he was razor sharp and now was the time to try.  The DRF video even supported him and that guy never backs the favorite.  Still, the one Euro was a concern IF he ran his best race - I listed Sheikhzayedroad as my second choice.  The Pizza Man was perfectly placed heading into the far turn at 6/5, but had nothing for the stretch. In a stirring finish Sheikhzayedroad came flying up the rail to score at better than 3/1....sigh.  In the Grade 2 Canadian Stakes I was correct in going against 6/5 favorite Lexi Lou who was taking on older for the first time and basically unproven on the grass - she was last.  My pick was Solid Appeal who was the 5/2 morning line, but allowed to float up to 4/1.  After making a mild bid into the turn he stopped and was next to last.  Still, the featured Grade 1, $1 million Woodbine Mile could provide me with a winning day and ensure a winning weekend.  I really liked Kaigun.  He'd run second to Wise Dan in the spring and had nearly upset the Grade 1 Manhattan on the Belmont Stakes undercard.  He had the perfect prep when rallying to win the Grade 2 Play The King at 7 furlongs over the course.  My only fear, again because of the Euro factor was Trade Storm who had run third in this spot to Wise Dan.  But his numbers just didn't seem to support the wager.  The two of them rallied side-by-side through the lane, but I was only second best (pink silks on outside).

September 6

Fall Racing Season Kicks Off

Today I started my new racing season and I have made the decision that I am going to "take some time off."  I know full well that there is no way I could actually stay away from handicapping, so my plan is to simply handicap stakes races on the weekends from now until Gulfstream's Championship season opens.  I have been handicapping daily since last December with the exception of about three weeks off in April, so I think to be fresh and  anxious to attack Gulfstream this December, this will be good.  I had wondered about how to avoid looking at the other races on the card and then I remembered that if you get the past performances from Brisnet you can customize your card to only give you stakes races (or any other kind of races).  So I went on to their site, via Twinspires, and got a card of nineteen stakes races.  And then they printed out by post time.

The first race on my sheet was the Eleven North Handicap from Monmouth Park.  I had seen Geeky Gorgeous win the Regret Stakes on the Friday prior to Haskell Day when I was at Monmouth.  She'd come back in a graded stakes and was over her head.  Today she got the perfect spot to get back in the win column.  There figured to be plenty of speed today for her to target from a stalking trip.  The race unfolded exactly as I had seen it.  The second choice, More Than A Party (8/5) went to the front under leading jock Paco Lopez and as they moved through the turn Geeky Gorgeous was in full flight.  She collared the leaders in mid-stretch and while the final margin of victory was only a length, she was well in hand throughout the final 16th of a mile.  I had tripled the bet, so the $3.40 payoff netted me a nice $25.50 to kick off the season! 

Next up was the first of four stakes from Churchill Downs, the Grade 3 Ack Ack. Churchill was running a twelve day meet before Keeneland opens.  I thought the race was an excellent match-up between the top three program choices:  Carve who was riding a three-race win streak; Flashback, who was coming off a long layoff but had run second in the Santa Anita Derby last Spring before changing barns...she had sharp works for today; and Bradester.  This guy had been on my radar for two years now and had finally realized his potential when he took the Grade 3 Mineshaft Handicap last January at better than 6/1.  His last two races, both at Monmouth were top efforts, and in his last four races three of the winners had gone on to take Grade 1 events.  He was clearly the class of the field.  He typically runs on the lead but, especially with his outside draw today in a one-turn mile, could sit off the pace if the inside runners insisted on the lead.  The field broke cleanly and within the first 16th of a mile it was clear no one really wanted he lead.  Big mistake for all the others.  Bradester, who I thought was the best horse, was now loose on a lonely lead.  When the opening half was in :45 and change I thought he might have gone too fast, but he had plenty left for the stretch and won under wraps!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO, two-for-two! 

I passed on the first of several Louisiana Downs stakes races and moved into the second one, the Sunday Silence Stakes going a mile on the turf for two year olds.  Task Force Glory was a Michael Maker colt owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey and ridden by Rosie Napravnik.  He left the gate at 5/2 and lagged near the back until the far turn.  He was making up ground late, but too little too late - fifth, beaten two lengths.  Back to Monmouth where we were going two turns in the Jersey Girl Handicap.  Maybe Tonight was my choice and I based that largely on the fact that most of the main contenders had been ridden by top rider Paco Lopez this summer and today he was on this filly.  She was allowed to go off at a more than generous 2/1 price.  She sat in a pressing spot to the far turn, moved three wide and then drew off as she pleased.  The $6.20 payoff netted me more than $15 on my third win from just four selections! 

I missed on the next four, the most "painful" of which was the Locust Grove from Churchill Downs.  Last spring, on Oaks Day, I scored a prime time bet with On Fire Baby in the Grade 1 La Troienne.  She loves this distance (8/4-2-1), she loves the course, and was dropping out of three consecutive Grade 1 & 2 events into this listed spot.  She just looked primed for a big effort.  My second choice was Don't Tell Sophia, who also was fond of the course, but she'd been off for nearly eight months and was typically at her best at this level.  I went $20 to win with On Fire Baby and she pressed the pace to the far turn at 9/5 then stopped.  In spite of the slow pace 'Sophia came flying late to win convincingly.  I was second in the Happy Ticket over the Louisiana Downs turf and then a disappointing fifth in the Grade 3 Iroquois for juveniles - the first race with points towards the Kentucky Derby.  And finally my losing streak ended in the NJ Breeders' where I went against short priced favorite Rainbow Heir with what I thought would be the lone speed in Partyallnightlong.  But she didn't break sharply from the rail and the favorite proved much the best.  Finally back in the winner's circle with Sassy Kitten.  She'd won for me on the West Virginia Derby card when that race came off the turf, but I thought she'd be even better on the turf today.  I looked for her to sit off the pace and rally strongly, but instead she went right to the front and was ultra-impressive drawing off with authority. 

The next four races were responsible for the day failing to produce a profit, the one most particular being the next race on the list.  It was the Grade 3 Arlington Washington Futurity for two-year-olds at Arlington.  The crowd favored Recount, but I went with unbeaten Private Prospect who had already defeated that one earlier.  My pick was a juicy 4/1 as they left the gate while the favorite was a short 6/5.  I was flying through the lane, split horses late and....PHOTO FINISH! 

Yes, that's me in the middle - oh, so close.  That would have netted me over $50 and made me a winner on the day.  The difference between winning and losing is so slim sometimes, sigh.....  I had a good 7/2 price on Pangburn in the Grade 2 Pocohontas for two-year-old fillies at Churchill Downs and was second best behind a runaway front runner.  And then my second "BEST" of the day went down in Gulfstream Parks FSS Affirmed Stakes.  Sing Praises had looked TONS the best in his last, a six furlong sprint when he wired the field.  He had a four length lead into the stretch and his stable mate cut that down to a narrowing 1 3/4 margin of victory causing me to think at the time he'd be a good bet against when stretched to seven furlongs today.  But the more I looked at it, the evidence just didn't support that today.  While he might typically have difficulty getting the distance today he had the rail and was the LONE SPEED.  To top matters off his last two speed figures were better than all the lifetime numbers of all his rivals.  I saw him relaxing easily on the lead and holding on.  Nearly came true as he cruised into the stretch on a four length lead, but was nailed in the final strides at 2/5.  Wow.  The four-race sequence closed with String King was sent off at 8/5 in the Unbridled Stakes.  He had posted a 5/2-1-0 record in his most recent and those three losses were when he lost by a mere length in a Grade 3, then second a nose and a neck - all three to multiple stakes winners.  He was tons the class of the field.  He was flat off the far turn failing to deliver a late kick, fourth.  One last chance to score in the feature race on the national scene the Grade 2 Super Derby. 

I thought that Vicar's In Trouble was easily the class of the field.  The problem was he ran his best on or pressing the lead, and just to his inside was a runner who was 7-for-8 (against lesser) in his career and he WOULD go to the lead.  Many handicappers felt that would compromise Vicar's chances.  I was not so sure.   I thought he could sit just off the pace to the far turn and take over.  But early in the morning I was listening to HRTV and one analyst pointed out that all of Vicar's In Trouble's wins had come at the Fair Grounds.  Uh oh....that might be an issue.  Still, I stuck with my pick.  Rosie Napravnik had him positioned just off the pace setter through the clubhouse turn and into the backstretch.  But then he took command.  When they hit the far turn and many expected him to wilt he took over and accelerated for home in a powerful stretch run to win by over seven widening lengths!  WHOOOO HOOOOO. 

The winning ticket returned nearly $35 to my bankroll.  For the day I was a solid 5-for-14 on the day (hit the board in ten of those races), for a sharp 36%.  Next weekend there are FIFTEEN stakes races on the turf, including the Woodbine Mile card in Toronto - where I plan to be next fall!

September 1

Last Day Of Summer Racing

  I headed out to Gulfstream Park today ready to build on the weekend's winning ways to close down the summer of racing today.  I had handicapped five tracks - Gulfstream, Monmouth, Saratoga, Parx, and Arlington Park - and thought I had some solid selections.  It was closing day at Saratoga and it was a big stakes day in Philadelphia, so I had several quality races on the list, not a typical "weekday card."  The day started off slowly as I finished close without winning in my first five picks.  In the opener at Monmouth Paid Expectations was a 40% Club play, but was unable to run down a loose on the lead front runner, third at 4/5.  The second at Parx I had the 8/5 favorite in Catinagram....dueled on the lead before giving way late to finish fourth.  The opener at Saratoga saw Clearbrook lead into the far turn on the turf before giving way to be fourth at 2/1.  Lodi Lion was the next victim as he ran evenly around the Parx oval at 5/2, fourth again.  And finally, in my first selection at Gulfstream Mi Maple Leaf was bet down to 4/5 favoritism.  Led comfortably in slow fractions, so he looked home free turning for home, but he could not hold off the second choice and was a close second.  I still felt good about the day because later in the day I felt like I had some very solid stakes selections where I planned to up the wagers.  Finally got on the board in the third at Monmouth when Souper Scoop wired the field EASILY.  I had doubled the bet, and I was happy to get a winner, but the 2/5 odds were a lot less than I had expected.  In the 4th at Monmouth Gem City Gal went off at a juicy 9/2 as another Monmouth Park 40% play.  But he was off slowly; made a middle move, then flattened out to fade to 7th.  But then, I was back in the winner's circle in a big way.  At Arlington Park I tabbed Hike to take the 2nd, a Maiden Special affair with former student Rosemary Homeister, Jr. onboard.  She took her mount right to the front and stole the race!  My third win, and check out the price......

OH YEAH!  At $11.40 I was cashing for nearly $30.  Less than ten minutes later it was the first of the stakes races at Saratoga.  It was the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes and it looked to me like Competitive Edge and I Spent It would be clearly the top two juveniles in this spot.  The latter was unbeaten in two starts, including the Grade 2 Saratoga Special.  And what appealed to me about him was the fact that in both of his races he'd rated professionally off the pace and finished strongly.  I thought would bode well for his chances today as the youngsters stretched out to seven furlongs.  The former was a Todd Pletcher runner and he had been ultra impressive in his debut - shocking, NOT, for a Pletcher 2yo at the Spa.  The colt was a $750K Fasig-Tipton buy so big things were expected from him, and after dueling through a sizzling :21.4 opening quarter he'd drawn off with ease to win by ten widening lengths.  I thought that I Spent It would be the shorter price and I thought Competitive Edge probably had more talent, so I went with him.  I was surprised that the betting was heavily favored toward my pick, and I couldn't help but smile as the two colts walked by the camera in the post parade thinking that I'd probably see both of them here this winter.....gotta love Gulfstream's Championship meet!  Won't be long!  By the time they were in the gate Competitive Edge was the 3/5 favorite with I Spent It at 8/5.  Today Competitive Edge rated off the pace, which was a two-horse duel, and one of those was I Spent It!  Didn't see that coming!  Competitive Edge collared the second favorite and blew by impressively.  Nice! 

The $3.30 payoff was short, but with my double investment I collected for over $15.  At Monmouth Pantera rallied late, but too late, second at 7/2.  Right back at Arlington where I liked the Wayne Catalano entry.  The second half scratched so I was in on Party Time.  Right to the front and wired his turf maiden rivals.  But again, at a very short price (2/5), so it was the reward of being right more than the money I cashed.  I was second in the next at Arlington when Forest Elf JUST missed rallying in a five furlong turf sprint at 7/5.  I scored my sixth win of the day on the Saratoga turf thanks to a great ride from Javier Castellano.  In retrospect I should have invested more on Live In Joy.  This claiming event was tailor made for this filly who was dropping down for Michael Maker, owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey, and top jockey Castellano.  He saved ground all the way to the far turn and when the leaders floated off the rail, he shot up the inside and was quickly in front by daylight.  The big 2/1 price lead to a near-$20 payoff for me.  I'm on a roll with six wins in my last nine picks.....this is the way I saw the day going!  But then I hit a wall when the next four runners were close, but not good enough. 

At Gulfstream Haywired was 3/1 and ran evenly without ever threatening my second choice who wired the field.  At Parx it was the first of the stakes races, the Turf Amazon.  Joya Real was a big 5/1 and was absolutely FLYING late, oh so close second.....that $60 and change return would have been huge.  Cho Time was an even fourth at Monmouth and then in the Grade 3 Greenwood Cup at Parx, going 1 1/2 miles, the favorite - Micromanage - was given a poor ride (in my opinion) when Joe Bravo took him six wide into the stretch.  Through the turn he'd closed to within two lengths of the lead, but by the time he was finally around the turn he was nearly eight off the lead....lucky to get third.  Next up was the seventh at Saratoga.  Several weeks ago I had read an article about Todd Pletcher's stable of two-year old runners, and a couple of names had been mentioned as probably being very talented.  One of them was a colt by the name of Carpe Diem.  He was slated to debut today in the 7th.  He was a $1.6 MILLION OBS purchase for the powerful WinStar Farms in partnership with Stonestreet Stables.  His works had been sensational in preparation for his debut, and even NYRA handicapper Dave Liftin remarked in his analysis, "......Todd Pletcher may have saved the best for last as he unveils Carpe Diem today....."  My only concern was that he'd drawn the 1 hole which can sometimes be intimidating to a young horse, especially a 2yo making his debut.  Conversely I thought he was TONS the best horse in here.  I had planned to make him a "prime time" investment, but I wanted to make him a "BET of the Day."  So I'd taken a little extra money telling myself I'd see how I felt as post time approached.  After looking at him and the fact that he was not being pounded down to 1/9 odds I decided to go all in - $50 to win!  He dueled to the turn, put away the pace rival and I was worried that maybe he'd been softened up and a longshot was making up ground quickly to his outside.  But when they straightened into the stretch jockey Johnny Velazquez opened him up and he was LONG GONE! 

I thought the $3.40 payoff was more than fair and I made my way to the windows to cash I for $85 thinking this would kick off a string of big wins.  But the end of the day was a disappointment......Albano was the 7/5 favorite in Parx's Grade 3 Smarty Jones - slipped through to take control into the stretch, weakened to be third.  My Miss Sophia who had given top 3yo filly Untapable a scare in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks was the overwhelming choice in the listed Lady's Secret at Monmouth.....didn't even hit the board at 1/5 - wow.  Then in the race that cost me the day, at Parx 27-time winner Ben's Cat, who was 5-for-7 over the Parx turf course was a huge 2/1 at post time.  He was moving strongly on the turn when he had to check sharply, recovered, found room outside and was F-L-Y-I-N-G outside to JUST miss in a photo.  My $40 win bet would have returned nearly $125 and guaranteed a good day, but just like that it was gone.  Fifth in the Grade 3 Saranac at Saratoga, 3rd at 3/5 in my last at Gulfstream, fifth at 7/5 in the featured Grade 3 Boiling Springs at Monmouth and then Dave Liftin's BET of the Day in the Spa finale didn't finish the race.

So as I walked away from Gulfstream and the summer racing season I reflected on how it had been an exciting day with some big wins, including the "BET of the DAY," but ended up disappointing.  The summer as a whole was similar to that.  The Churchill Downs project had been one of the best handicapping projects I've ever had with a winning average of over 40% with a big profit for the first half of he season.  But, while I hit "my average" of over 30% in the Monmouth Project, the race selections from around the rest of the country had brought down the summer average.  Most especially the three wins on Arlington Million Day and the one win on Travers Day had probably cost me a summer profit.  Still, the bottom line for the summer was a solid 35% win average and an ROI of $1.94.  I've always set the bar at $1.91 for ever $2 bet as according to the book, "Handicapping For Bettor Or Worse," which I'd read for a WISE handicapping project the numbers show that if you are winning at that ROI level or better you are beating 93% of all the other handicappers.  I'll take that!

August 31

40% At Monmouth

Today marks the final Sunday of the Monmouth Project, and the last day that I will have only selections from Monmouth Park.  It's hard to believe that tomorrow is the first day of September and Labor Day which officially marks the end of the summer and the summer racing season.  It has been a busy summer as I've travelled to Houston, Colonial Williamsburg, Monmouth Park on the Jersey Shore, Chicago for the Arlington Million, and to Delray Beach for a staycation.  My three kids were here for a weekend, with Jeff & Julie staying for nearly a week and my Mom, sister, & niece were here for ten days.  And in spite of all that I managed to complete daily handicapping of every race run on every of the Churchill Spring/Summer meet and every day at Monmouth from July 4 through Labor Day!  So today I originally had six selections on my sheet, but my double investment in the opener was scratched.  In the 2nd race I doubled the bet on Zullaby, who was a Monmouth 40% Club angle.  I was delighted he went off at 7/1, but he was never in the race, 5th.  In the fourth I liked Stevearino at 6/1 in the program.  He was bet all the way down to 8/5 favoritism, but again, ran evenly to be a non-threatening fourth.  I picked up my first win in the 5th when I had another Monmouth Park 40% Club play on Kobel.  Jorge Navarro is a big percentage play first off the claim, which fit here.  He sat off the leaders until the turn, then began picking off runners until he collared the leader in deep stretch and edged clear.  The 8/5 price netted me nearly $30.  In the 9th, the Sorority Stakes for juvenile fillies I liked Perpetual Novena with Paco Lopez.  He broke poorly and was never a factor at 4/1.  The final bet of the day was in the Sapling Stakes for two-year-olds.  Souper Colossal had been really impressive in his first two starts when sprinting 4 1/2 and 5 1/2 furlongs.  Today he'd stretch out to a full mile, go two turns AND had to break from the outside post.  But he quickly seized command before they reached the first turn and led them on a merry chase.  When the pressers started to close in heading for home he found another gear and drew off with something left.  Very impressive. So, for the day I was 2-for-5 and showed a flat bet profit!

August 30

FINALLY....A B-I-G Day!

 

It's been several weeks, and frankly way too long since I've had a big day at the races.  I considered briefly going to the races today, but it was the first day of the college football season and I thought I would enjoy the games while betting the Monmouth races as well as the stakes-laden Saratoga card.  I didn't have a selection in either of the first two races at Monmouth or the opener at the Spa.  So my first selection of the day came in the second race at Saratoga where I'd tabbed Todd Pletcher's second-time 2yo starter, Two Weeks Off to win.  He had been a clear second in his debut and the $320K Fasig-Tipton purchase looked to build on Pletcher's 30% average with second time starters.  I thought the 9/5 price was generous.  He pressed the pace to the stretch and edged clear through the final 16th!  Whoooo hoooo, one-for-one and collecting nearly $30. 

I came right back to make it two in a row when Upon Reflection rallied five wide on turn to draw clear late.  The price was even better, 2/1, and the $6.60 return netted me over $15.  Back to the Spa where we were on the turf.  I liked another Todd Pletcher runner, Mshawish.  He was the class of the field as he'd run in four group races in Europe then was the losing favorite in the Grade 3 Oceanport at Monmouth last out.  The drop into allowance company should do the trick I thought.  He was blocked through the turn, then finally found a seam in deep stretch, split runners and was flying at the finish......PHOTO!  As I watched the slow-motion replay I was pretty confident I'd won, and when the picture came up, I had!  THREE IN A ROW!!!!!!  Wait..............Inquiry & Objection!  I watched the replay and it looked to me like the outside horse bumped me before I bumped him.  Too close of a call to warrant a disqualification.  No, then took me down.  And suddenly my triple investment that was bringing me another $30 was gone.  I later looked back through my racing records and this was the very first winner I'd picked over the summer that got DQ'd - over 700 races!  This seemed to put a jinx on my selections - or maybe it was just evening out - as It's Macaroni led easily into the stretch in Monmouth's 4th only to stop badly, 8th.  Right back with a Pletcher 2yo at the Spa and Royal Son was second after chasing a loose on the lead front-runner.  But I was back to cash in the fifth at Monmouth where I picked Alwaysthinkingofyou in a Maiden Special sprint on the Jersey Shore.  He had hesitated in his debut then rushed up to take the lead through a :44.4 half.  A clean break and he'd be long gone I thought.  Not only did he win, but did so just as I'd thought.....broke on top, quickly to the front and never threatened.  The only surprise was generous $6.40 payoff.  So I cashed for over $30.  Minutes later it was time for my BET of the DAY.  It was the first of four graded stakes at Saratoga, the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch.  Two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan was making his return to the races after suffering an emergency colic attack.  Many handicappers thought today was the day to beat the champ, and there was a lot of evidence to support trying to beat him.  The long layoff, the distance was NOT his optimum (he prefers a mile, this was 8 1/2 furlongs); and he had to run down what looked like a loose on the lead front-runner.  But, as I've followed this guy I've found his trainer, Charles Lopresti is exceptionally conservative as to where he spots his horses.  He had pointed Wise Dan for the one mile, Grade 2 Fourstardave earlier in the meet, but he was quoted when he passed the race that he wanted Wise Dan to be not 100%, but 110% and literally dragging the exercise rider around the track.  That was the case for today.  Still, the extra sixteenth of a mile and the fact he was carrying 127 pounds while all of his rivals were at least 8 pounds lighter would be a challenge.  He got good position early, running fourth.  Jockey John Velazquez had him positioned in the clear down the backstretch and he pushed the "GO" button on the turn.  He looked to be working a little harder than usual, but he picked off the runners in front of him and drew even with the leader at the furlong marker.  A runner was gathering steam from the back, but Wise Dan glided to the front and was clear at the sixteenth pole by over a length, but here came D. Wayne Lucas' Optimizer flying down the middle.  I really never thought Wise Dan would let him by, but it was very close.....but a win's a win.  This guy is a champion, big time. 

My $30 investment returned a big $54 as the crowd had let him go off at 4/5, one of the biggest prices he's paid in quite a while.  In the sixth at Saratoga Duke of the City tracked the leaders and gave way at 9/2.  I had intended to bet the 7th at Monmouth, but somehow missed the bet - lucky me, as he ran second at even money.  The ninth at the Shore was next up where I had picked Oaks Bluff.  Here was my analysis:  "....gets the upset nod in here as a lightly raced four year old who not ony has never seen a claiming tag, but has yet to see 2-lifetime conditions.  He has a best of seventeen bullet work nine days ago...."  He went right to the front and was never challenged!  WINNER!  But here's the best part, check out the payoff........

 

That's right my friends, $15 for a $2 investment, so I was cashing for nearly $40!  WHOOO HOOOOO!  But then it was even more good news.  On Haskell Day at Monmouth I had picked Stonetastic to win an allowance test early on the card.  She wired the field easily.  Well, today she showed up at Saratoga.....now to ship to the Spa where the competition is much stiffer is a big sign of confidence;  for top Monmouth rider Paco Lopez to give up his multiple mounts on the Jersey Shore is an even bigger indication of intent.  But here was the part that intrigued me most about the move.....today trainer Kelly Breen had spotted her in the Grade 2 Prioress Stakes!  What the??????  But as I handicapped the race what jumped off the page to me, in addition to the whole shipping angle, was that her pace numbers SHOULD put her on an easy lead.  I doubled the bet.........right to the front and she set sizzling fractions - :22.1, :44.3 - too fast I thought.  And as the field closed in on her as heads turned for home she rebroke and opened up on the field and drew off in hand.  OH MY!  And much like Oaks Bluff she was a big price, 5/1 at post time! 

 

When the payoffs were posted, the $13 mutual meant I'd be cashing for over $60!  HORRAY!  I missed in the ninth at the Spa when Hot Squeeze stalked the pace at a bit 8/1 before fading to 7th.  Bug I was in the winner's circle yet again in the 11th at Monmouth.  Snake Pit rated well off the pace in 4th in the featured nw3x allowance test.  I was not concerned because she was a Chad Brown 40% Club member as he'd won a huge 67% over the past two summers with dirt routes.  She came swooping by at the head of the lane and drew off in hand.  Another fair price at $7.40, so I collected nearly $40.  I am having a great day!  Next up was the national highlight race, the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes.  Two races back I had picked Moreno to wire the field in the Grade 2 Suburban.  He led to deep stretch at nearly 9/1 before being caught late to be second.  So I passed on him last out in the Grade 1 Whitney, but he wired the field at 10/1!  Leading up to today's race trainer Eddie Plesa had made some remarks about his second place finisher in the Whitney, Itsmyluckyday, that led me to believe he felt he should have won the race if ridden differently.  So I thought Paco Lopez would ride the hair off this horse today and sit a stalking trip while someone kept Moreno busy.  I doubled the bet on Itsmyluckyday to turn the tables.  Well, to my surprise it was Itsmyluckyday that pressed Moreno and as they turned for home it was strictly a two-horse race.  There was more than one exchange of bumps, but in the end Itsmyluckyday was in front!  The Inquiry sign came up but I didn't think it was serious enough, especially in a big Grade 1 race.  The stewards let the order stand! 

 

The big $7.70 payoff meant I was cashing for yet another near-$40.  I missed on the last bet, a turf contest at Saratoga, but I was a big winner on the day.  I had made fourteen selections and won with eight of them!  The profit of $165 was one of the best days of the summer, and certainly one of the very best of the Monmouth Park project.