September 1

Last Day Of Summer Racing

  I headed out to Gulfstream Park today ready to build on the weekend's winning ways to close down the summer of racing today.  I had handicapped five tracks - Gulfstream, Monmouth, Saratoga, Parx, and Arlington Park - and thought I had some solid selections.  It was closing day at Saratoga and it was a big stakes day in Philadelphia, so I had several quality races on the list, not a typical "weekday card."  The day started off slowly as I finished close without winning in my first five picks.  In the opener at Monmouth Paid Expectations was a 40% Club play, but was unable to run down a loose on the lead front runner, third at 4/5.  The second at Parx I had the 8/5 favorite in Catinagram....dueled on the lead before giving way late to finish fourth.  The opener at Saratoga saw Clearbrook lead into the far turn on the turf before giving way to be fourth at 2/1.  Lodi Lion was the next victim as he ran evenly around the Parx oval at 5/2, fourth again.  And finally, in my first selection at Gulfstream Mi Maple Leaf was bet down to 4/5 favoritism.  Led comfortably in slow fractions, so he looked home free turning for home, but he could not hold off the second choice and was a close second.  I still felt good about the day because later in the day I felt like I had some very solid stakes selections where I planned to up the wagers.  Finally got on the board in the third at Monmouth when Souper Scoop wired the field EASILY.  I had doubled the bet, and I was happy to get a winner, but the 2/5 odds were a lot less than I had expected.  In the 4th at Monmouth Gem City Gal went off at a juicy 9/2 as another Monmouth Park 40% play.  But he was off slowly; made a middle move, then flattened out to fade to 7th.  But then, I was back in the winner's circle in a big way.  At Arlington Park I tabbed Hike to take the 2nd, a Maiden Special affair with former student Rosemary Homeister, Jr. onboard.  She took her mount right to the front and stole the race!  My third win, and check out the price......

OH YEAH!  At $11.40 I was cashing for nearly $30.  Less than ten minutes later it was the first of the stakes races at Saratoga.  It was the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes and it looked to me like Competitive Edge and I Spent It would be clearly the top two juveniles in this spot.  The latter was unbeaten in two starts, including the Grade 2 Saratoga Special.  And what appealed to me about him was the fact that in both of his races he'd rated professionally off the pace and finished strongly.  I thought would bode well for his chances today as the youngsters stretched out to seven furlongs.  The former was a Todd Pletcher runner and he had been ultra impressive in his debut - shocking, NOT, for a Pletcher 2yo at the Spa.  The colt was a $750K Fasig-Tipton buy so big things were expected from him, and after dueling through a sizzling :21.4 opening quarter he'd drawn off with ease to win by ten widening lengths.  I thought that I Spent It would be the shorter price and I thought Competitive Edge probably had more talent, so I went with him.  I was surprised that the betting was heavily favored toward my pick, and I couldn't help but smile as the two colts walked by the camera in the post parade thinking that I'd probably see both of them here this winter.....gotta love Gulfstream's Championship meet!  Won't be long!  By the time they were in the gate Competitive Edge was the 3/5 favorite with I Spent It at 8/5.  Today Competitive Edge rated off the pace, which was a two-horse duel, and one of those was I Spent It!  Didn't see that coming!  Competitive Edge collared the second favorite and blew by impressively.  Nice! 

The $3.30 payoff was short, but with my double investment I collected for over $15.  At Monmouth Pantera rallied late, but too late, second at 7/2.  Right back at Arlington where I liked the Wayne Catalano entry.  The second half scratched so I was in on Party Time.  Right to the front and wired his turf maiden rivals.  But again, at a very short price (2/5), so it was the reward of being right more than the money I cashed.  I was second in the next at Arlington when Forest Elf JUST missed rallying in a five furlong turf sprint at 7/5.  I scored my sixth win of the day on the Saratoga turf thanks to a great ride from Javier Castellano.  In retrospect I should have invested more on Live In Joy.  This claiming event was tailor made for this filly who was dropping down for Michael Maker, owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey, and top jockey Castellano.  He saved ground all the way to the far turn and when the leaders floated off the rail, he shot up the inside and was quickly in front by daylight.  The big 2/1 price lead to a near-$20 payoff for me.  I'm on a roll with six wins in my last nine picks.....this is the way I saw the day going!  But then I hit a wall when the next four runners were close, but not good enough. 

At Gulfstream Haywired was 3/1 and ran evenly without ever threatening my second choice who wired the field.  At Parx it was the first of the stakes races, the Turf Amazon.  Joya Real was a big 5/1 and was absolutely FLYING late, oh so close second.....that $60 and change return would have been huge.  Cho Time was an even fourth at Monmouth and then in the Grade 3 Greenwood Cup at Parx, going 1 1/2 miles, the favorite - Micromanage - was given a poor ride (in my opinion) when Joe Bravo took him six wide into the stretch.  Through the turn he'd closed to within two lengths of the lead, but by the time he was finally around the turn he was nearly eight off the lead....lucky to get third.  Next up was the seventh at Saratoga.  Several weeks ago I had read an article about Todd Pletcher's stable of two-year old runners, and a couple of names had been mentioned as probably being very talented.  One of them was a colt by the name of Carpe Diem.  He was slated to debut today in the 7th.  He was a $1.6 MILLION OBS purchase for the powerful WinStar Farms in partnership with Stonestreet Stables.  His works had been sensational in preparation for his debut, and even NYRA handicapper Dave Liftin remarked in his analysis, "......Todd Pletcher may have saved the best for last as he unveils Carpe Diem today....."  My only concern was that he'd drawn the 1 hole which can sometimes be intimidating to a young horse, especially a 2yo making his debut.  Conversely I thought he was TONS the best horse in here.  I had planned to make him a "prime time" investment, but I wanted to make him a "BET of the Day."  So I'd taken a little extra money telling myself I'd see how I felt as post time approached.  After looking at him and the fact that he was not being pounded down to 1/9 odds I decided to go all in - $50 to win!  He dueled to the turn, put away the pace rival and I was worried that maybe he'd been softened up and a longshot was making up ground quickly to his outside.  But when they straightened into the stretch jockey Johnny Velazquez opened him up and he was LONG GONE! 

I thought the $3.40 payoff was more than fair and I made my way to the windows to cash I for $85 thinking this would kick off a string of big wins.  But the end of the day was a disappointment......Albano was the 7/5 favorite in Parx's Grade 3 Smarty Jones - slipped through to take control into the stretch, weakened to be third.  My Miss Sophia who had given top 3yo filly Untapable a scare in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks was the overwhelming choice in the listed Lady's Secret at Monmouth.....didn't even hit the board at 1/5 - wow.  Then in the race that cost me the day, at Parx 27-time winner Ben's Cat, who was 5-for-7 over the Parx turf course was a huge 2/1 at post time.  He was moving strongly on the turn when he had to check sharply, recovered, found room outside and was F-L-Y-I-N-G outside to JUST miss in a photo.  My $40 win bet would have returned nearly $125 and guaranteed a good day, but just like that it was gone.  Fifth in the Grade 3 Saranac at Saratoga, 3rd at 3/5 in my last at Gulfstream, fifth at 7/5 in the featured Grade 3 Boiling Springs at Monmouth and then Dave Liftin's BET of the Day in the Spa finale didn't finish the race.

So as I walked away from Gulfstream and the summer racing season I reflected on how it had been an exciting day with some big wins, including the "BET of the DAY," but ended up disappointing.  The summer as a whole was similar to that.  The Churchill Downs project had been one of the best handicapping projects I've ever had with a winning average of over 40% with a big profit for the first half of he season.  But, while I hit "my average" of over 30% in the Monmouth Project, the race selections from around the rest of the country had brought down the summer average.  Most especially the three wins on Arlington Million Day and the one win on Travers Day had probably cost me a summer profit.  Still, the bottom line for the summer was a solid 35% win average and an ROI of $1.94.  I've always set the bar at $1.91 for ever $2 bet as according to the book, "Handicapping For Bettor Or Worse," which I'd read for a WISE handicapping project the numbers show that if you are winning at that ROI level or better you are beating 93% of all the other handicappers.  I'll take that!