Fall Racing Season Kicks Off
The first race on my sheet was the Eleven North Handicap from Monmouth Park. I had seen Geeky Gorgeous win the Regret Stakes on the Friday prior to Haskell Day when I was at Monmouth. She'd come back in a graded stakes and was over her head. Today she got the perfect spot to get back in the win column. There figured to be plenty of speed today for her to target from a stalking trip. The race unfolded exactly as I had seen it. The second choice, More Than A Party (8/5) went to the front under leading jock Paco Lopez and as they moved through the turn Geeky Gorgeous was in full flight. She collared the leaders in mid-stretch and while the final margin of victory was only a length, she was well in hand throughout the final 16th of a mile. I had tripled the bet, so the $3.40 payoff netted me a nice $25.50 to kick off the season!
Next up was the first of four stakes from Churchill Downs, the Grade 3 Ack Ack. Churchill was running a twelve day meet before Keeneland opens. I thought the race was an excellent match-up between the top three program choices: Carve who was riding a three-race win streak; Flashback, who was coming off a long layoff but had run second in the Santa Anita Derby last Spring before changing barns...she had sharp works for today; and Bradester. This guy had been on my radar for two years now and had finally realized his potential when he took the Grade 3 Mineshaft Handicap last January at better than 6/1. His last two races, both at Monmouth were top efforts, and in his last four races three of the winners had gone on to take Grade 1 events. He was clearly the class of the field. He typically runs on the lead but, especially with his outside draw today in a one-turn mile, could sit off the pace if the inside runners insisted on the lead. The field broke cleanly and within the first 16th of a mile it was clear no one really wanted he lead. Big mistake for all the others. Bradester, who I thought was the best horse, was now loose on a lonely lead. When the opening half was in :45 and change I thought he might have gone too fast, but he had plenty left for the stretch and won under wraps! WHOOOOO HOOOOOO, two-for-two!
I passed on the first of several Louisiana Downs stakes races and moved into the second one, the Sunday Silence Stakes going a mile on the turf for two year olds. Task Force Glory was a Michael Maker colt owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey and ridden by Rosie Napravnik. He left the gate at 5/2 and lagged near the back until the far turn. He was making up ground late, but too little too late - fifth, beaten two lengths. Back to Monmouth where we were going two turns in the Jersey Girl Handicap. Maybe Tonight was my choice and I based that largely on the fact that most of the main contenders had been ridden by top rider Paco Lopez this summer and today he was on this filly. She was allowed to go off at a more than generous 2/1 price. She sat in a pressing spot to the far turn, moved three wide and then drew off as she pleased. The $6.20 payoff netted me more than $15 on my third win from just four selections!
I missed on the next four, the most "painful" of which was the Locust Grove from Churchill Downs. Last spring, on Oaks Day, I scored a prime time bet with On Fire Baby in the Grade 1 La Troienne. She loves this distance (8/4-2-1), she loves the course, and was dropping out of three consecutive Grade 1 & 2 events into this listed spot. She just looked primed for a big effort. My second choice was Don't Tell Sophia, who also was fond of the course, but she'd been off for nearly eight months and was typically at her best at this level. I went $20 to win with On Fire Baby and she pressed the pace to the far turn at 9/5 then stopped. In spite of the slow pace 'Sophia came flying late to win convincingly. I was second in the Happy Ticket over the Louisiana Downs turf and then a disappointing fifth in the Grade 3 Iroquois for juveniles - the first race with points towards the Kentucky Derby. And finally my losing streak ended in the NJ Breeders' where I went against short priced favorite Rainbow Heir with what I thought would be the lone speed in Partyallnightlong. But she didn't break sharply from the rail and the favorite proved much the best. Finally back in the winner's circle with Sassy Kitten. She'd won for me on the West Virginia Derby card when that race came off the turf, but I thought she'd be even better on the turf today. I looked for her to sit off the pace and rally strongly, but instead she went right to the front and was ultra-impressive drawing off with authority. The next four races were responsible for the day failing to produce a profit, the one most particular being the next race on the list. It was the Grade 3 Arlington Washington Futurity for two-year-olds at Arlington. The crowd favored Recount, but I went with unbeaten Private Prospect who had already defeated that one earlier. My pick was a juicy 4/1 as they left the gate while the favorite was a short 6/5. I was flying through the lane, split horses late and....PHOTO FINISH!
Yes, that's me in the middle - oh, so close. That would have netted me over $50 and made me a winner on the day. The difference between winning and losing is so slim sometimes, sigh..... I had a good 7/2 price on Pangburn in the Grade 2 Pocohontas for two-year-old fillies at Churchill Downs and was second best behind a runaway front runner. And then my second "BEST" of the day went down in Gulfstream Parks FSS Affirmed Stakes. Sing Praises had looked TONS the best in his last, a six furlong sprint when he wired the field. He had a four length lead into the stretch and his stable mate cut that down to a narrowing 1 3/4 margin of victory causing me to think at the time he'd be a good bet against when stretched to seven furlongs today. But the more I looked at it, the evidence just didn't support that today. While he might typically have difficulty getting the distance today he had the rail and was the LONE SPEED. To top matters off his last two speed figures were better than all the lifetime numbers of all his rivals. I saw him relaxing easily on the lead and holding on. Nearly came true as he cruised into the stretch on a four length lead, but was nailed in the final strides at 2/5. Wow. The four-race sequence closed with String King was sent off at 8/5 in the Unbridled Stakes. He had posted a 5/2-1-0 record in his most recent and those three losses were when he lost by a mere length in a Grade 3, then second a nose and a neck - all three to multiple stakes winners. He was tons the class of the field. He was flat off the far turn failing to deliver a late kick, fourth. One last chance to score in the feature race on the national scene the Grade 2 Super Derby.
I thought that Vicar's In Trouble was easily the class of the field. The problem was he ran his best on or pressing the lead, and just to his inside was a runner who was 7-for-8 (against lesser) in his career and he WOULD go to the lead. Many handicappers felt that would compromise Vicar's chances. I was not so sure. I thought he could sit just off the pace to the far turn and take over. But early in the morning I was listening to HRTV and one analyst pointed out that all of Vicar's In Trouble's wins had come at the Fair Grounds. Uh oh....that might be an issue. Still, I stuck with my pick. Rosie Napravnik had him positioned just off the pace setter through the clubhouse turn and into the backstretch. But then he took command. When they hit the far turn and many expected him to wilt he took over and accelerated for home in a powerful stretch run to win by over seven widening lengths! WHOOOO HOOOOO.
The winning ticket returned nearly $35 to my bankroll. For the day I was a solid 5-for-14 on the day (hit the board in ten of those races), for a sharp 36%. Next weekend there are FIFTEEN stakes races on the turf, including the Woodbine Mile card in Toronto - where I plan to be next fall!
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