September 20

Pennsylvania Derby Day

 

The past two years this day has produced many winners for me, and so this weekend I decided to take on a full slate of handicapping selections.  I handicapped all the races at Parx, Churchill, Gulfstream, Monmouth, Belmont, and Charles Town.....not just the stakes races.  I flirted with the idea of heading out to Gulfstream for the day, especially with what looked like a light day of college football.  But in the end with a weather forecast of heavy storms for the day I finally determined that if I went I would be spending the vast majority of the day sitting (or standing) in front of a simulcast monitors.  So I stayed home.  There were so many races with close post times I had four screens open at once - see photo at the right.  The action started with three races at Parx, the first of which went off before 11:30 am.  And the final race of the day, the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks, went off at 10:30 pm - ELEVEN hours of racing!  In the opener Noah n' Jacob had come off the shelf last out and was EIGHT clear of the show horse.  Looked obvious to me, but a dull fifth at 5/2.  In the second at Parx Dancing Lion had never faced 2-lifetime company previously, so no surprise he was the 6/5 choice.  But like the first pick, a non-threatening fourth.  In the fourth in Philadelphia Wildcat Lily was first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez, ridden by Javier Castellano and was the 6/5 favorite.  Could not to get to my second choice who was winning her sixth race in her last seven starts, loose on the lead.

I was beginning to wonder if it had been such a good idea to handicap and play all of these non-stakes events when I finally cashed my first ticket of the day.  Devilish Reason had run her two best figures in Louisville, and she'd only raced in a maiden claiming event once, for a $50K tag (today was for $30K).  Calvin Borel had her stalking the leaders into the lane while hugging the rail.  As the leader floated off the wood Borel pushed his filly through the opening and she wore down the leaders to edge clear late.  She paid $5.80 and I cashed for nearly $15.  At Delaware, House Money was sent off as the prohibitive 2/5 chalk but didn't even hit the board (4th).....wow.  But then the day took on a whole new look.  In the opener at Gulfstream we were on the turf as the storms had not yet found their way to Hallandale.  Fan Base was my choice.  A full field of twelve were lined up today, but what led me to this one was the fact that the other eleven had on rare occasion hit the mid-70's on the Beyer scale, but Fan Base had run that kind of number in her last EIGHT turf routes!  I figured that she didn't need a peak effort to score, and she'd get a good spot near the front.  She did, as she crossed over before they hit the first turn and took them gate to wire!  The one thing I didn't count on was the nice price.....the $8.20 payoff led me to a cash out of over $40! 

Minutes later they were in the gate for the opener at Monmouth.  Sonofachub was the lone class dropper.  He'd debuted at this level and was second by a neck, and that came when steadied and umped.  AND he was four clear of the show runner who came back to score.  In his second start he was second again, but after being doubled in claiming price.  Stuck out like a sore thumb to me.  He was 6/5 as they went into the gate, but before they'd gone  quarter of a mile he was 1/5.  He pressed the pace to the turn and then blew by without ever being asked to run.  He was simply galloping trough the final sixteenth.  Didn't pay much, but I was happy to collect another winning payout.  Less than fifteen minutes later I was tuned into racing in New York.  The second at Belmont was a non-winners of three lifetime.  Betweenhereandcool was first off the claim for David Jacobson, who is a master of the claiming game.  If able to find his "A" game he would be long gone, and with Jacobson taking over the conditioning, I thought that was a very likely event.  It was as he pressed the pace to the turn, cruised on by and opened up to win.  And less than ten minutes later they were off at Gulfstream.  The torrential storm made it impossible to see the runners until they were into the stretch, but the chicklets on the bottom of the screen showed my pick, Solitary running away from the field to provide me with my fourth consecutive winner, and five scores from the last six races on my sheet! 

 

Less than ten minutes later the runners were off in the 6th at Parx. This starter allowance restricted to runners who'd run for $25K was loaded with several quality runners. But Dawly looked best to me.  He was dropping off of back-to-back stakes efforts and had run seven straight races that earned a Beyer of 90 or better, including a whopping 106 three back in a nw3x allowance test.  And you could make the case that the ship from New York to Parx was a hidden class drop.  Javier Castellano had him hugging the rail just off the leaders through the turn.  Two challengers went up wide to take on the dueling leaders to make it a wall of four across the track as they spun into the stretch.  But one of the reasons Castellano is the leading North American jockey was move like this when he decided NOT to go up six wide and make his move, but to wait for room at the rail.  When the seam opened he sent the even money favorite (bet down from 4/1 in the program) through to the front and that proved to be the difference in a close finish!  WHOOOO HOOOO! 

Right back in action fifteen minutes later, at Belmont for their third.  It was a non-winner's of two lifetime turf sprint going seven furlongs.  AP Johnson had never seen a claiming tag and had shown ability.  She had run a decent fifth in stakes company...against the boys earlier.  I was surprised she was allowed to go off at 4/1.  And I was disappointed that I didn't bet more when she scored and paid $10.20.  I then went through a prolonged streak of four losses over the next hour's time frame.  Off the board at Delaware at 3/1, Churchill at 12/1, Belmont as the 7/5 second choice, and a disappointing fifth at Gulfstream where I'd tripled the bet on 4/5 favorite Back To Seattle.  But, I won four of the following six races to continue to pile up strong numbers for the day.  The 8th at Parx was a nw2x allowance event.  I had tripled the bet on Chad Brown's filly, Catch My Drift.  She had won her first two starts for this top conditioner and then in spite of his usual very conservative nature, he sent her out next in the Grade 1 Alabama going a mile and a quarter.  She had been competitive until the final furlong where she faded.  I thought the drop to allowance company and the turn back to a mile and seventy yards was ideal.  She was sent off as the 4/5 favorite and she ran erratically through the final furlong, but straightened out in time to blow by the two leaders late!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

I cashed for nearly $30, but had little dime to celebrate as it was time for the first stakes race of the day, the Grade 3 Kent Stakes for 3-year-olds on the turf at Delaware Park.  Divine Oath was sent out by Todd Pletcher, and I'd had this guy not once, but twice this past winter at Gulfstream.  He looked much the best today after having run in the Grade 1 Secretariat.  He was 4/5 when then left the gate.  The local rider saved ground from the 1-hole all the way to the far turn, then rather than try to swing wide and lose valuable ground, he hugged the rail.  The top ones floated off the wood and he shot up the inside to draw clear and win!  My triple investment netted me nearly $30 again!  

After missing at Churchill with the 8/5 favorite and running second at 4/1 in the Alphabet Soup Stakes at Parx I scored my tenth winner of the day at Monmouth.  So Festive had made her first four starts in Maiden Special company, but today made her first start in for a tag.  She was second choice at 5/2 when they hit the stretch.  She'd saved ground into the lane, and now shifted out to split horses and draw clear.  The $7.40 payoff returned me almost $20. 

The sixth at Delaware was my "Best" there - typically "prime time" investments come on those horses who lay over their rivals and have established form.  But this was a maiden claiming event.  I had originally not planned to spend his much, but after I finished writing my analysis I asked myself, why not.....she was CLEARLY the horse to beat.  And so I had $20 to win on Corinthian Luck as she dropped in for a first time tag while making her first start for new trainer Juan Vasquez.....that is a 36% winning move at $3.22 ROI  She pressed the pace to mid-way on the far turn and took off as TONS the best. 

She paid better than even money and I collected over $40!  I took a shot at the "score of the day" in Belmont's 6th.  Amazing Littlelady was 12/1 in the program and left the gate at a big 8/1.  I tripled the bet as she looked like the LONE speed.  Right to the front and led them all the way into the lane.....I was calculating on cashing over $125 when she needed to spurt clear in the stretch, but instead came up empty and faded to last.....sigh.....In the subsequent five races I ran third four times and second once.  One third place finish was at a huge 19/1 in the Grade 3 Gallant Bob at Parx, but all the others were disappointing favorites.  Then it was time for the "BET of the Day"  in the Grade 1 Cotillion, a $1 million event at Parx.  Untapable is one of my very, very favorite fillies.  The only time she let me down was she tried the colts in the Haskell when I was in New Jersey.  But there were excuses that day.  Today my lone concern was that the track, like on Haskell Day had seemed to be favoring speed.  Could she rally against the apparent bias.  I felt good when after breaking sharply jockey Rosie Napravnik had her just two off the leader all the way to the far turn.  She glided up three wide to take the lead and while she didn't run off like a superstar, she ground it out to the wire probably clinching the three-year-old filly championship title with her third Grade 1 win of the year. 

I had bet $50 to win on her and was rewarded by collecting $75.  The race had just gone official when they were off in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom going 6 1/2 furlongs at Belmont.  Like last year when I'd nailed the Cotillion and come right back to score in this race.  My pick was Artemis Agrotera who was coming off back-to-back scintillating scores sprinting since coming off a layoff.  My lone concern, since she was a stalker, was if my second choice, La Verdad would steal the race as the lone speed.  As they broke out of the gate Artemis lagged way, WAY back and looked to not be wanting to pick up her feet.  Meanwhile La Verdad was handily in front by daylight.  As they turned for home Artemis was finally beginning to run, but she was double digit lengths behind AND was floated widest of all into the lane.  My only hope was the fact that the race was 6 1/2 furlongs instead of six and that the half mile had been a sizzling :43 and change.  Time was running out as my filly was simply FLYING through the lane.....PHOTO FINISH!  As I watched the replay several times I thought I'd won, but the where the wire was actually was so critical and hard to determine.  The photo result came up........

Y - E - S!!!!!!  Nearly $30 on that win!  I looked to win my third stakes in a row in the feature at Churchill, the Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes where Fiftyshadesofgold was a perfect 2-for-2 over this unique surface and 3/2-1-0 at the seven furlong distance.  She'd won a Grade 3 here on Derby Day at this distance and exited back-to-back Grade 1 events to drop into the Grade 3 test here.  In addition she'd fired a best-of-58 bullet work in a sizzling :58.3.  She was the 4/5 favorite but right away she looked so much like Artemis Agrotera as she seemed uncomfortable on the surface.  But unlike that one she never got going - 5th at 4/5.  I missed with my first play at Charles Town where 1/5 favorite In The Fairway was second in a photo finish.  But then I scored at Gulfstream.  The 9th was a maiden special for two-year-olds and at 8/1 in the program....according to the DRF linemaker.....was the first horse since last spring from top North American trainer Todd Pletcher.  I liked that he'd not simply shipped Sky Limit down here, but she'd been here as she showed works at the Palm Beach training center.  I wrote in my analysis that one thing that was certain about this race was that Sky Limit would NOT be 8/1.  Sure enough, she was the 9/5 favorite.  Still, for a Pletcher debut runner at Gulfstream, I thought this was a big price.  Like both Artemis and Fiftyshadesofgold Sky Limit lagged back.  But she was picking off horses up the rail through the far turn.  She slid off the rail and split horses with a full head of steam at the 16th pole.  Top rider Edgar Zayas eased up on her late as he knew she was home free. 

I had tripled the bet so the $5.80 payoff returned over $40 for me!  Next up was the feature at Parx, the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby.  I did not think that California Chrome had this race locked up, and in fact thought he would not win.  Twinspires was running a promotion that if he did win and your pick ran second you got your money back.  So I thought it was a great deal to take my pick, Tapiture at 6/1, where I'd doubled the bet.  I could win over $70 and if I was wrong about Chrome I'd get my money back.  Well, I was mostly right.  Chrome was a distant fifth and I ran second.  Unfortunately to win the bet I either had to win outright or run second to Chrome.  By now it was after six pm and my last few bets were strung out over the next four hours.  I scored with two more stakes at Charles Town when Lucy's Bob Boy ran to his 1/5 odds as the LONE speed and double-Beyer advantage by romping home under a gallop.  Geeky Gorgeous, who'd won the Regret Stakes for me when I was on track at Monmouth, and won the Eleven North Handicap for me just two weeks ago, was now in The Pink Ribbon here at Charles Town.  I wondered about her ability to get the seven furlongs as eleven of the twelve pp's showing were six furlongs, and the lone try beyond that she'd faded.  AND the configuration of Charles Town was a seven furlong sprint was around two turns.  But on form and figures she was a standout.  The fact she came from off the pace I thought played in her favor.  I would have liked better than 3/5 odds, but I was happy to see her romp home as tons the best, my sixteenth win!  Next week is Breeders' Cup Preview Weekend AND we will be in Houston!