October 3-5

Friday was Opening Day of the Keeneland fall meet and with the Fall Stars weekend came a plethora of graded stakes, most of which were "Win And You're In" Breeders' Cup races.  For the weekend I focused nearly all my energy for the beginning and end of the weekend on the Lexington track, but on Saturday I had selections from several different tracks.  On the whole I was disappointed with the results, but I wasn't the only one surprised by many of the results.  On Friday I had selected the ultra-impressive Rainbow Heir to run down the speed over the new Keeneland dirt in the Grade 3 Phoenix Stakes.  But after stalking the pace he failed to make a move and was a well-beaten 5th at 5/2.  In the featured Grade 1 Alcibiades for two-year-old fillies Todd Pletcher's filly Fashion Alert - a 2x stakes winner - was prominent to the far turn before fading to be sixth at 3/1.

We had driven to Orlando to celebrate Brad's 26th birthday and had a big Disney Day adventure on tap for Saturday (part of my "16 Trips In 16 Months" adventure).  So when Kim and I woke up early to the alarm at daughter Julie's home I made all of my selections.  Then we were at the Magic Kingdom from the opening bell until nearly 11 pm.  Once we got back to Brad & Lauren's (where we spent the second night) I logged onto twinspires.com and watched the replays.  The first race on the selection sheet was the Grade 1 Frizette for juvenile fillies at Belmont.  Todd Pletcher's Feathered was my upset pick at 5/1.  She was right there into the lane and finished a competitive third.  At Keeneland in the Grade 3 Woodford, a five and one-half furlong turf spring I liked Marchman.  He had a good stalking post and a lot of speed to set the table for his strong finishing kick.  He was the only member of the field with a graded win over the course and in his last four, all graded turf sprints, he had two wins a second and a third.  But he was never in the race, finishing a dismal 6th at 2/1.  Stonetastic had been my upset pick in the Grade 2 Prioress last time out at Saratoga and she exploded to an easy win, earning a huge 108 Beyer.  I thought she might regress a little, but she also looked much the best of these, even with a "B" effort.  She was sent off at even money and dueled into the stretch.  She ran hard through the lane by was outfinished by two late runners, third.  I finally had my first winner on the day in the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont.  This two-year-old juvenile route at a one-turn mile was the last east-coast prep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  I thought that Todd Pletcher's Daredevil looked best and was delighted that he might be a fair price.  But, in spite of only having a single maiden win on his resume he was the 8/5 favorite at post time.  He pressed the leader through the far turn and then took off for the wire without ever being asked.  He blasted his rivals stopping the teletimer in a final clocking that was two full seconds faster than older allowance horses earlier on the card.  Jockey Javier Castellano was actually restraining him through the stretch run so the 107 Beyer he earned was ultra impressive and stamps him as clearly one of the favorites for the BC event and maybe the spring classics. 

In retrospect I wish I'd wagered more on Daredevil, even a double investment seems like it SHOULD have been the play, but I only had the minimum on him and cashed for a little less than $15.

My chance at a profitable day, as it turned out, were lost in the next race, the Grade 1 First Lady at Keeneland going a mile on the turf course.  Dayatthespa is one of my favorite older turf horses and she loves the Keeneland course.  But she'd disappointed for me in her last couple, including a spring start here.  I thought she looked to be part of an early pace battle which would set the race up for last year-s winner Better Lucky.  And, 'Lucky was listed at 6/1 in the program.  She was flying under Mike Smith (#5 on the outside above) with dead aim on Dayatthespa who had taken the lead into the stretch.  But she ran out of room and was a close second....the lost sixty-plus dollars were the difference on the bottom line.  At Belmont in the Grade 3 Hill Prince for sophomores on the turf, Mr. Speaker looked easily best on form to me.  But at 2/1 he never ran a step and was sixth under the wire.  Today was Indiana Derby Day at Indiana Grande Race Course, with the accompanying Oaks and several listed stakes, so I had handicapped this card as well.  The first of which was in the opener, the Hoosier's Breeders' Sophomore where I liked Mary n' Eileen.  She was the 6/5 favorite, but could not get past the top two through the lane, third.  The eighth at Keeneland was the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity for two-year-old colts.  This was a "Win And You're In" race for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and I liked Todd Pletcher's $1 million purchase Carpe Diem.  He had warranted a $50 win bet in his debut a month ago traveling 5 1/2 furlongs.  Today he stepped in against winner, into stakes company, into a Grade 1, AND stretched around two turns.  That is A LOT to ask of any runner, much less a two-year-old making only the second start of his career.  But from what I saw and had read he seemed to be talented enough to do it.  Man was he impressive!  He romped through the lane, drawing off as much the best.  He would have been the talk of the juvenile stakes on the day if not for the impressive win by his stable mate, Daredevil, earlier in the day at Belmont. 

Much like Daredevil I didn't invest more than the minimum, so in spite of going off at a generous 2/1, the $6.80 payoff only netted me $17.  The Grade 3 LA Woman was the first of three graded events at Santa Anita. I gave the unbeaten Stopshoppingdebbie an upset shot at winning the race, despite the fact she'd never raced outside of northern Washington.  She left the gate at 2/1 and was a non-factor at fifth.  At Gulfstream Park it was a stakes filled card featuring the final two legs of the Florida Sires Series.  First up though, I liked Ekati's Phaeton, coming off a whopping 14-length win on the main track, to take down the Our Dear Peg Stakes for juveniles over the turf.  RIght there at 5/1 heading into the far turn, but didn't have a late kick....fifth.  The next race on my sheet was my "BET OF THE DAY" - the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile which featured Wise Dan, the two-time Horse of the Year.  After winning his seasonal debut here at Keeneland, he'd been all out to win the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve going nine furlongs on Derby Day.  He then had emergency surgery for colic and had been out until late August where again he got his nose down first in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch Handicap.  But he'd been working up a storm and I thought he'd run huge today.  I went $50 to win!  Right away I knew I was in trouble.  Dan was gawking at the crowd when the gates sprung open and he spotted the field a good four or five lengths.  He was then between horses and fighting with jockey Johnny Velazquez as he wanted to be up close.  But JR kept him under wraps as they hit the far turn.  He was sixth and about six off the lead....I would not have given a nickel for a winning ticket on him here, but he got out of traffic, spun wide into the turn and was gathering momentum.  At the furlong pole he was still fourth and not making all that much ground up and again, I thought Wise Dan was about to lose for the first time in fourteen turf starts.  But then in one of the most dazzling stretch runs I've seen he hit another gear and inhaled the field.  Not only did he win, but he was clear by over a length on the wire.  AMAZING! 

 

He left the gate at 4/5 and paid a healthy $3.80.  With my US Grant riding on him I cashed for $95 big ones!  Again, much like the Daredevil race, in retrospect I wish I would have gone "all in" with a $100 to win.  That would have made the day a winning one.  But, as I've said many times before, I just don't like to go that deep on an online wager.....it's just a thing I have.  Sigh.......



 

The In Reality Stakes, the final leg for the colts in the Florida Sire Stakes was up next.  Trainer Stanley Gold and Jacks Are Better Farms had three in here, and they were expected to dominate the race as they typically do in the FSS Series.  In the last leg I had been all over Sing Praises who went off at 1/5 as the lone speed.  But he was caught by his stable mate on the wire.  So today I went against both of those guys, figuring that Sing Praises couldn't get the distance after blowing a daylight lead going seven panels, and the other runner would be the favorite - which he was.  So I went with the third entry, Hear That Tune who figured to be a price, and he was at a big 7/1.  I was right on two counts.....the winner was a Gold/Jacks runner, and it wasn't the favorite.  Sadly my pick was 8th, but it was the beaten favorite Sing Praises who stalked the lead to the stretch then ran away at better than 5/1.  Wow.  At Indiana the Ta Wee Stakes was a mile on the turf and I tabbed Kiss Moon.  She had run very strongly in the Grade 3 Regret at Churchill before winning the Hatoof Stakes at Arlington.  She was dropping out of the Grade 3 Pucker Up over soft going.  Her two firm turf efforts had earned mid-80 figures, which would win here.  She went right to the front, battled off the challengers into the turn, then dueled through the lane....and would not be caught in a courageous effort!

At a nice 3/1 price I AGAIN missed an opportunity to have a winning day when I only bet the minimum.  The defending Breeders' Cup Sprint champion, Secret Circle was third at 6/5 in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championships - surprised me.  And Mr. Commons was AGAIN second best on the turf in the Grade 2 City of Hope.  Three stakes at Indiana closed out the night as Flashy American proved again why Julian Leparoux is never to be trusted.  At 7/5 he could only get fourth as he continually had her in troubled spots throughout the race.  In the Grade 2 Indiana Oaks Unbridled Forever was second best - a win there also in and of itself made me a winner on the day.  And in the Grade2 Indiana Derby, Atreides - who had started his career with three straight triple Beyers - didn't run.  Finished a well-beaten sixth at even money. 

On Sunday we went out to breakfast and for a mid-day meal to celebrate Brad's birthday, then we drove home.  I had made three selections on the day.  Close Hatches looked to dominate the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland.  She was the "Bet of the Day" for Sunday.  I made those plays before we headed out for breakfast and then watched the replays once Kim and I were back in Ft. Lauderdale.  In the Grade 3 Bourbon, on the turf for 2-year-olds at Keeneland Can't Happen Here was third at 2/1....sigh.  Then Close Hatches left the gate at 1/5.  Not only was she unbeaten in four starts this season, all Grade 1 wins, but she was the LONE speed in here.  Joel Rosario took her right to the front setting a controlled pace.  Midway on the turn he asked her to run and draw off - no response!  Didn't even hit the board, wow.  But in the final bet of the day I doubled the bet on juvenile Her Emmyneny at Santa Anita in the Surfer Girl Stakes.  She rode the rails into the lane and exploded.  The effort will probably make her one of the top win contenders for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly Turf.

The big horses are done prepping for the Breeders' Cup, so I'll now focus on the Breeders' Cup most of the next three weeks.  In an interesting bit of South Florida racing news, this week Calder is back open.  But under the conditions of the deal they struck with Gulfstream last summer, the racing meet will be operated by Gulfstream as they lease the dates from CDI.  This was telling to me as apparently Churchill ownership is only interested in running the casino there - note they are the ONLY "racino" where the casino is listed first in the new name (Calder Casino and Race Course).  But Gulfstream has redone the turf course and will operate a "boutique" turf festival meeting through October and November.  This will give the home facility and course time to gear up for the Championship Meet in December.  I will have to try out the new digs, but it's bothersome to me to go here for Breeders' Cup Day.  Especially when I read this week that the "Gulfstream Park West" facility will have "limited" simulcast opportunities, while the "full slate" of simulcast tracks will continue to be open in Hallandale.