Opening Day: Gulfstream Park West
Yes, it was "Opening Day" at a "new" racing venue, Gulfstream Park West! Ok,so it used to be Calder, but with the deal struck last June Gulfstream management now operates the Fall Turf Festival meeting at the Calder facility. From what I've read, Churchill Downs (owners of Calder) no longer want to be in the racing business outside of the Louisville facility, just casinos. In order to operate the Calder Casino they must conduct live racing at least 40 days a year. So they have leased the facility to Gulfstream for the fall in a seven year deal. Churchill gets to keep the casino while Gulfstream controls the racing - not only paying all the bills, but also collecting all the revenue. The best part for me, as a South Florida racing fan is that it gives me a change in scenery, but most importantly makes Opening Day in December at the Gulfstream Championship Meet feel truly like an opening day. So, because I can (you know, I am retired! WHOOOO HOOOOO!) I came out for the Opening Day card. I also handicapped the Keeneland card and the Belmont card.
I liked More Debt in the GPW opener on the turf, but he was a late running, non-threatening fifth at 9/2. My first win of the day came in the second at Belmont. I liked 1a-Screenplay....interestingly when I downloaded the past performances there was no #1! Screenplay looked like a very deserving favorite in the program. All three of his career turf wins had come off of similar layoffs as what he was returning from today and with the rail he seemed to be the controlling speed. He went right to the front, kept the field at bay until they turned for home and then opened up to draw off by six widening lengths. The only surprise was that in spite of being the obvious choice, he went off at what I thought were inflated odds of 6/5. I had doubled the bet, and so I cashed for over $20! Next up on my sheet was the second from Keeneland. It was a two-turn, mile and a sixteenth maiden claimer. My top choice was Elemonate. She was beaten 14 1/2 lengths last time out, but the winner was clear by 13 1/2. I liked that her Beyer figures had improved in each of her three starts. Paco Lopez took her right to the front, and just like Screenplay, drew off in the run through the short stretch to the alternate finish line.
She went to post as the co-favorite at 2/1. The payoff of $6.60 led to me cashing a ticket for over $15. Missed in the next, another turf event at GPW when Morning Brew was a decent third at 9/2. Then came the highlight win of the day. The third at Keeneland was a one mile turf event for two-year-olds. The top pick jumped off the page to me, #7 Circus Performer. Why? Because he was a first-time starter for Todd Pletcher, duh. Pletcher is ULTRA deadly with debuting two-year-olds at Keeneland; he is similarly deadly with three-year-old runners at Gulfstream in the winter. But I have found that while he's strong at all other venues, these two are the best chances to cash consistent winners. And Keeneland, in both the spring and the fall are a close third. Anyone who follows my writing - or racing - knows that Pletcher is not nearly as strong with turf runners, at any level. But, I have found out - many times the hard way - that if you stick with him on ALL debut runners at these three meets you can sometimes get a price. And more often that not, the price plays are on the grass because all the "wise guys" jump off. This one was an even easier one to land on. Circus Performer was a $230K Keeneland sales purchase, so someone thought he had talent. And his bloodlines screamed turf router as a son of top turf sire Dynaformer. Add in Joel Rosario to ride and it just seemed oh-so-obvious. He was listed at a juicy 4/1 in the program, but as I said in my analysis I was CERTAIN he'd go off at a shorter price than the program favorite who was listed at 3/1. As post time approached I looked at the board and the #7 was 5/1.....I HAD to have the wrong number, so I checked. Nope, that's me. Man, everyone is so off base I thought. But as they approached the far turn there was Circus Performer, dead last of eleven. Oh.....guess the crowd was smarter than me. But wait a tic, Rosario asked him to run and he quickly began picking off runners in spite of circling the field four wide. By the time heads were turned for home he was fourth and had all the momentum. Rosario never had to show him the stick and he just blew by in a very impressive fashion. 
The best part - the payoff of $11.20 resulted in a return on investment to me of $56.00! WHOOOOO HOOOOOO! I am having a great day. I ran 3rd and 6th at Belmont in the last two races that I bet live and then I headed out to meet my good friend Shari Bush from Cypress Bay. I had made the second half of my bets through Twin Spires and planned to watch them once I got home.
Of the seven remaining selections I thought I had three near-certain winners and had bet accordingly. Czar was my triple-investment choice in the 6th at Keeneland, another MSW on the turf. He had run third behind a next out winner who then came back to win the Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes here last Sunday. The crowd let Czar go off at a big 9/2, but he was only third. My "best" at Keeneland was in the Grade 3 Jessamine, a turf route for two-year-old fillies. Fila Primera was the 9/5 chalk, but after making a big move off the turn she ran evenly to also be third. And the feature at Gulfstream Park West was a six and a half furlong sprint where I liked Yes Liz. She was the tepid 5/2 choice and like Fila Primera made a move on the turn, but was also even through the lane, 3rd. I did win two other races however.....in the seventh at GPW I took Discreet Romance who was 3/1 on the morning line. She had been even money in her debut but had a wide trip and ran third. She was claimed out of her debut race so you had to figure her new connections had seen something they really liked. She broke sharply from the rail and was in control from start to finish!
Too bad she was bet down to 8/5 favoritism. And in the very next race I doubled the bet on Courtney Ryan. She had won 8-of-11 starts in 2014, and you could toss the last two when she was WAY over her head in he Musical Romance Stakes and in a $25K AOC event. Today she was back in for an optional tag of $10K. The last time she was at this level she'd drawn clear easily by five widening lengths. Go explain the 8/1 morning line! I was hoping for a gift of even half that. But as is often the case you can't fool the crowd. Courtney Ryan was sent off as the 6/5 favorite. She had to work a little harder than I had thought she would have to, but she was the best in the end.
I cashed out for over $20. So for the day I finished with five wins from fourteen selections, nearly 38%. And a small profit....I'll take it!
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