50% WINS! $100+ Profit!
What a GREAT weekend! Early in the week I debated about handicapping just the stakes races, or taking on the entire card for the tracks featuring this weekend's stakes action. By Thursday I had decided I would handicap all the races, but was still up in the air about going to Gulfstream Park West for the day - and missing out on a day of college football - or staying home and playing online.
When the weather on Friday morning broke and we were in the high 60s, without humidity, I decided that with the weather predicted to be a notch cooler on Saturday would make for a great day to spend at the races, and so that became the plan. The featured races for the weekend were a pair of Grade 1 events, with a Grade 2 support feature at Woodbine on Sunday. So on Friday I also handicapped the full Woodbine card for Sunday. The weekend started off in a superb way as Friday night Kim and I had tickets to the Broadway musical, "Annie" at the Broward Center for the Performing Arts. I smiled the entire evening and said several times, "I love musicals." Little did I know that this was foreshadowing a GREAT weekend at the races. Saturday morning dawned with temperatures in the mid-60s and by about 11:30 I was on the road to Gulfstream Park West. I have to say that the shorter trip to Miami Gardens is most appreciated by this handicapper. For the day I had handicapped Laurel and Belmont - as they both had a full slate of state-bred stakes races on Maryland Million Day and Empire Showcase Day - as well as Gulfstream Park West, which had two turf stakes, and Keeneland and Santa Anita. The first race on my selection sheet was the first of fifteen stakes races, the Maryland Million Nursery for juveniles. My top selection was Golden Years who was coming off of a dominant maiden win. While he was stepping into a stakes while facing winners for the first time, several of his rivals today were still maidens. He'd worked a sizzling bullet for today and I'd been impressed by his ability to sit off the pace in his win last out after a less than clean break. Today he broke sharply and pressed the pace along the inside; as they turned for home it looked like a stretch duel might develop but at the furlong marker Golden Years found another gear and drew off sharply.
When I handicapped for today I used the early past performances and had the DRF morning line odds. Unlike most of the numbers, Golden Years had been listed the program favorite, and he was the post time favorite at a very short 1/5. But, I'd doubled the bet and collected nearly $15.
Less than five minutes later they were off in the opener at New York. My pick in the six furlong maiden special event for juveniles was Tizquick. He had debuted as best-of-the-rest second at Saratoga while pressing the pace. But the significance of this effort was NOT that he ran second, but that the winner Upstart had come back to run a best-of-the-rest second in the Grade 1 Champagne and is Breeders' Cup bound. As I watched the race I didn't think Tizquick had a problem breaking but the fact was he was at the back of the pack all the way down the backstretch to the far turn. But as they hit the turn he began picking off horses one by one and by mid-stretch it wasn't a question of IF he'd catch the leaders, but when and by how much would he win. He reached the front at the 16th pole and drew off by daylight. While he too was the prohibitive 1/5, I was 2-for-2 on this glorious day and that was good enough to take a selfie and post it on Facebook! 
I walked out to film the first video clip of the day and realized I'd left my camera tri-pod at home....grrrrr. Now what? The rail is crowned so I didn't figure that would work, but I decided to try it and it worked! OK, nice to know I don't need to have this in my pocket all day :) Next up on the sheet was the second from Belmont, and the first of their NY-bred stakes races, the Sleepy Hollow for two-year-olds going a one-turn mile. This race was the first of many that irked me because of the DRF line and the actual program line. Now don't get me wrong, when I handicap the program odds next to never have any impact on my selections. But when I was done handicapping I thought I had a full slate of nice-priced runners. Like Ostrolenka here, listed at 6/1. But, as I wrote in my analysis, who could really believe that a Todd Pletcher two-year-old, coming off a dominant win with a huge 90 Beyer speed figure AT THIS DISTANCE, OVER THIS TRACK would be anything but the favorite. Typical for the DRF linemaker's numbers. So, it came as no surprise that when they left the gate Ostrolenka was the short 3/5 favorite. He pressed the pace and drew off up the rail as MUCH the best and now I'm three-for-three overall and 2-for-2 in stakes action!
About ten minutes later the live racing action got underway. I liked Kiton who was coming off a layoff for trainer Jorge Navarro. That was a 37% win angle for this powerful barn that had produced a boat-load of winners at Monmouth for me last summer. He was too far back early and his late run was just good enough for third. The winner was my second choice as he went nearly wire to wire. The third at Belmont was the Maid of the Mist for two-year-old fillies. Temper Mint was the 3/5 favorite and opened up at the top of the stretch. I thought I was about to cash on my third stakes winner of the day, but a closer ran right by her at the 16th pole and she had to settle for second while well clear of the rest of the field. Back to the local runners and the second was a maiden claiming event over the newly renovated turf course. Delantara had only been on grass twice and both produced sharp efforts against much better that she was seeing today. She was listed at 5/1 by the DRF, but the crowd wasn't fooled as she left the gate at 3/5. Right to the front and was never asked for her best as she drew off with authority.
This made my fourth win from six selections and the two losses were both with minimum investments and three of the four wins were all with added money investments! I am truly enjoying my afternoon! I had another short-priced favorite in the Mohawk Stakes at Belmont. King Kressa looked like the clear speed in this state-bred stakes, and he had nearly wired the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch before being caught by Horse-of-the-Year Wise Dan. So these looked to be easily at his mercy. But I was just a little leery about when he was spotted here and not in a graded event, so I only doubled the bet. Sure enough, right to the front and had an easy :51.1 half mile but when he was asked to take off at the top of the stretch he had nothing and was lucky to hold third. In the Maryland Million Sprint I went with Avarice who was 7/2 in the DRF. He was second off the shelf (27%) and moving turf to dirt (40%) AND had a bullet work. He was bet down to 6/5 favoritism but when the gate sprung open he hopped at the start and never recovered. A late run on class alone earned him a show placing. The Iroquois was next. This Belmont sprint came down, on paper, to La Verdad vs. Willet. La Verdad had set insane fractions last time out in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom and seemed clear to win until an unbelievable late run from multiple graded stakes winner Artemis Agrotera nipped her on the wire. That gal is now off to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint as one of the favorites! La Verdad was clear of the rest of the field, which included Willet. But here was the issue, as described by DRF handicapper Dave Liftin: La Verdad had been running steadily for nearly a year and those fractions might have taken a toll on her while Willet was making her first start off a layoff in the Gallant Bloom. Would she improve while La Verdad weakened late? I didn't think so as La Verdad looked like the LONE speed in here. As expected she went right to the front, but what I did not expect was that she had to duel on the lead to the far turn. As I watched the race I thought "this is not good." She put that pace rival away and was clear into the stretch and now was the time to answer the question as Willet was flying up the rail. But, La Verdad had plenty left and held on by daylight! WHOOOOO HOOOOO!
I had tripled the bet and cashed for $25! The next on my sheet was one of the few selections I'd found on the Keeneland card. This was a Maiden Special event going 1 1/6th mile on the turf. I thought Sky Flight had a legitimate upset chance on several subtle angles. First, he had debuted at Kentucky Downs and had shown brief early speed, fell back - losing ground and positions - then re-rallied. That "fall-back-gain" angle is often a sign of impending improvement. But this was even more significant when you note that at Kentucky Downs the stretch is run UPHILL! So to re-rally going uphill was a big plus. Also, trainer Mark Casse had a 22% win rate with second-time starters (a positive $2.18 ROI) AND a 20% win rate with first-time Lasix users at a huge $4.01 ROI. Jockey Shawn Bridmohan is a 31% winning rider for Casse at a $2.41 ROI. All of this and at 10/1 in the DRF line! So, I knew he wouldn't be that kind of price and even track handicapper Mike Battaglia had listed him as his top choice. So leading up to the start his odds wavered around 9/2 and 4/1. As they hit the backstretch he was sitting perfectly in third while in the clear. As heads turned for home he made his move and was between horses....the stretch duel was on! He battled to the front and edged clear late to WIN! WHOOO HOOOO!
But best of all, the late money had gone on three others and his post time odds floated up to a big 7/1! The $16.20 payout led me to collect over $40! I "suffered" through my longest losing skid of the day as I lost three in a row. Monster Sleeping went off at 9/2 in the Maryland Million Ladies on the turf in spite of the fact that she was the defending champion. I had tripled the bet but she ran evenly to be fifth. At Gulfstream West I liked Defense Article was first off the claim for Jorge Navarro (37%) but was too late with his big rally, third at 6/1. And then Thunder Affair ran to his 24/1 odds at Keeneland when never in it, ninth. I headed out to the rail (well, stood on the benches for a better view of the turf course) to watch the 5th at Gulfstream Park West. This 8 1/2 furlong test was a maiden special event for two-year-olds. On Pennsylvania Derby Day at the end of September I'd found the first of what would be many Todd Pletcher debut runners at Gulfstream for the winter and he'd won as the favorite. So here was another one. Al Khazaaliya might be a price I thought because the one "weakness" in the Pletcher arsenal is typically on the turf where he "only" wins at about a 26% rate! LOL. So, even though he was listed at 12/1 by the DRF I figured he'd be the favorite or at least second choice. But instead, he was 5/1 to 4/1 throughout the betting. I shook my head thinking how lucky I'd be if I actually got that kind of price. But when they hit the far turn and he was still near the back of the field I sighed, thinking the crowd had been right. I even considered putting my camera away. But then I hesitated as heads turned for home and I heard his name called. Cameras Up! Blew by the field under a hand ride to win going away! And he'd closed at a big 4/1 at post time.
The $10 payoff and my double investment led me to collect a US Grant at the windows! I snapped a pic (at left) of me cashing yet ANOHER ticket on a Pletcher first time starter, duh! Yippeee! Kala Ryan was a very disappointing 11th at 9/2 at Keeneland and Ready for Summer was a dismal 7th at 5/1 as I lost back-to-back races at Keeneland, both with double-up bets. The first of the feature turf stakes at GP West was up next, the Cellars Shiraz Stakes. Daring Kathy had won three straight over the Hallandale course, including a stakes race last winter. She had recently run back-to-back thirds in graded company. So today's drop into a listed stakes made her the class of the field. I doubled the bet and she was hammered down to even money favoritism. But I thought that was a fair price. She went right to the front without having to be asked and led them on a merry chase wire-to-wire in hand. As the field had passed by me in the stretch the first time and Kathy moved from the outside to the rail in front of the field a rider of a horse near the front went down. OBJECTION and INQUIRY! You've got to be kidding......but when I watched the replay Kathy was no where near her and the claim was quickly dismissed. Cashed for $20 on my fourth stakes winner of the day. Heir of the storm looked like the clear speed at Santa Anita AND was dropping in class. The only issue I had was that she'd always gone to the front and given way.....but I thought with the class drop she'd hold on. Didn't even make the front and was an even third of five runners. Sigh......Right back to the winner's circle however. This time in New York. As I had awaited the start of the Cellars Shiraz the betting was under way for Belmont's Ticonderoga Stakes. 
My initial decision was to double the bet on Discreet Marq. She was a Grade 1 winner and looked like a stand out. But like King Kressa earlier I had some reservations about her running in this spot. As I waited for the Gulfstream feature I re-read my analysis; then I read Dave Liftin's. I now noted he made Discreet Marq his "best" of the day. Hmmmm. Typically if I don't pick a Liftin runner and don't have an opinion, I bet his "best." If that horse is already my pick, I typically up the ante. So, do I do this now? I wavered, especially with recollections of King Kressa's failure to produce. But as they loaded into the gate here at Gulfstream I decided....I'm having a good day, and I'll use this race as a barometer - if Daring Kathy wins then I'll double my initial bet to make Discreet Marq a "prime time" investment. And so as Kathy scored in hand I walked in and made a $20 win bet on Discreet Marq. This nearly-white mare was prominent in third to the far turn, blew by the top two without even taking a deep breath and then was LONG GONE! WHOOOO HOOOOOO! But then there it was - INQUIRY/OBJECTION....against the winner! Really? Again? The replay showed as they approached the turn and Discreet Marq began to move, a runner on the rail checked slightly. But that one was NEVER in the race. They looked at it for several minutes from several angles, and I had to agree with a guy sitting near me who said to no one in particular, "They won't take her down." And sure enough, the OFFICIAL sign came up! YES!
She had gone off as the 4/5 favorite so with the prime-time bet I cashed for nearly $40 on my 10th win of the day and fifth stakes winner. Truly a very good day to be at the races! Next up on my selection sheet was the feature from Santa Anita, the California Flag. This was a 6 1/2 furlong turf sprint down the hillside - as I've said many times, I LOVE these turf sprints. It is such a unique course and one of the most predictable of race configurations to handicap......look for runners with previous success down the hill. So I had tabbed Red Outlaw who was a perfect 5-for-5 in his career. His Beyers had improved with each start and his win over this unique course came in his first start down the hill, and THAT my friends is very unusual. When I had made my bet on Heir of the Storm earlier I had gone to the GP window about 30 minutes before post time and told that "they weren't taking those bets yet." I thought that very odd that close to post time. So, since my final bet of the day (at Santa Anita) would be when I had already left the track I decided I would just make all three California bets through my Twin Spires account. Well, when I went to make the bet on Red Outlaw I had discovered he was scratched. Hmmmm, only four horses.....who did I list as my second choice in the race and why? I had picked Boozer who had a 5/2-1-1 record down the course. The only reason I'd picked against him was because I liked Red Outlaw to outrun him early. Then I heard a little voice in my head saying, "Wait a tic, wasn't Boozer Brad Free's "best" of the day?" I quickly looked it up and YES he was, and that was WITH Red Outlaw in the race. Free wrote that he saw Boozer wiring the field as the "most likely winner on the card." Now Brad Free is the only other national handicapper that I regard as I do Dave Liftin....I don't have an opinion, who does Brad like? If I like a horse and Free is on him as his "best" it's time to up the bet. So now I considered the facts at hand.....my pick was out, leaving my second choice who I already liked as the lone speed; he was a Horse-for-the-Course down the hillside AND was Free's "Best" of the day. So I had bet $10 to win on Boozer. So, now after cashing my Discreet Marq tickets, I looked at the Santa Anita board and Boozer as sitting at 4/5 with only three rivals to beat. I said to myself, "if they will take a live bet I'm doubling my investment by putting $10 to win in "live" money. Sure enough they took my money! When they left the gate he was 3/5 and burst right out of the gate to take them down the hill. As they made the tight turn off the turf course across the main track into the lane Boozer floated wide allowing the inside horse to come to him. Come on, I thought, show me why you're Brad's best.......he hit another gear and ran away from the field! OH YEAH BABY, my tenth winner of the day and sixth stakes winner.
With the prime time investment I cashed for nearly $35! The next was the Maryland Million Turf. Ben's Cat is a 27-time winner, yes, twenty-seven, and over twenty of them are on the turf. But, here's the rub, he's made his living sprinting. As I had handicapped the race I noted that he'd run in this one mile race last year and was nipped on the wire by veteran Roadhog. And BOTH were running today. But, Ben's Cat had disappointed in both of his last starts, so I thought many might jump off his band wagon. I on the other hand thought he'd run big today, and he loved this course. A chance for a nice price on one of the best turf horses in Maryland.
I went "prime time." I figured he'd stalk the pace, take over near the turn and have to hold off Roadhog late. If that one was too far back, the pace was soft, or he had a less than perfect trip I was in. So as the race unfolded I was watching his trip as much as Ben's Cat. Ben took over on the turf and Roadhog was forced to go wide to get out of trouble. The pace was not slow, but it was not hot either. I knew he'd never catch Ben! Ben's Cat opened up by daylight as they hit the 1/8th pole and Roadhog was making up no ground. He was 3/2 on the board and I'm starting to count my $50 in winnings when I noted that while Roadhog was not gaining, another runner was quickly closing past him. Ben's Cat was all heart.....but couldn't hold off the late charge in a near-photo finish loss, again. Sigh. I looked down at my sheet and was surprised; I thought that the Ticonderoga had been the final stakes on the Belmont card. But no, I had a pick in the Hudson Handicap, a 6 1/2 furlong sprint. My pick was #7 Moonlight Song. He was 6/1 according to the program, but as the lone speed I was sure he'd go off at a shorter price than that. It was ten minutes to post so I made my bet. As I watched them go into the gate I was amazed that his odds were sticking at 5/1. Really? Am I missing something? The bell sounded and right to the front went Midnight Song. He set a measured pace under Joel Rosario. The field looked to be waiting to make their move and as heads turned for home the rides began to push their mounts. But Rosario had yet to ask for Moonlight Song's best! He held sway and actually drew off late! 
He paid a very fair $3.20 on a $2 bet, but I, my friends, had a $40 ticket on him! I cashed for $64! As I went to one of my favorite Calder tellers to cash out (the Boozer ticket, the Moonlight Song ticket as well), she said, "....that's nice! You had a good day today!" I replied, "I did indeed!" It was of little consequence, although I would have liked to add another win, that I was third at 9/5 in the late Santa Anita eighth.
Sunday: Canadian International Day
It's interesting, to me at least, that in spite of having handicapped "seriously" for over ten years, bet on over 15,000 races and won over 5,000 of them that STILL after a good day on a Saturday I often find myself "anxious" about my Sunday selections. Why? Because after spending hours on the Saturday card and firing away for five or six hours at the track and having a winning day I have had several Sundays where I only have four or five races on my card and an 0-for day can wipe out the entire good of a Saturday's worth of handicapping. You'd think I would either be able to recognize (as I often do) that it's the big picture, not one day against another; or that the odds are I will probably do just as well on Sunday as I am a pretty steady 35% handicapper or better. And so with four selections on the Woodbine International card I had those same thoughts. I even had a brief thought to pass the day, but then I reminded myself of the "big picture" and that I had handicapped the card and found runners I truly DID like. I had a pick in the three graded stakes and a pick in an allowance early on the card. As is my usual practice I went only about 11:30 am to see the scratches and make my bets. I found it odd that in spite of the big day - which usually means an early post and early scratches - there were no changes announced yet. So I shrugged it off and made my four bets. Kim and I had planned to head to the movies for a 12:30 showing and so I'd miss the first couple of races. My plan was to just wait and watch all four of them in the early evening after the races were completed. My first bet was in the 4th, an optional allowance sprint on the Woodbine all-weather main track. Hillaby was my pick. She had blown the doors off her rivals in her first two starts of 2014. She was off for over 90 days but still ran a very similar number in a turf sprint last out when beaten four lengths going seven furlongs. Today it was back to the main track and a cut back to 6 1/2 furlongs. She had a sizzling :59.4 workout so I saw her as loose on the lead from the rail, or pressing a faint hearted longshot. Right to the front and L-O-N-G gone! I smiled to myself and heard an inner voice say, "....and you were worried about not winning....."
She was the 4/5 favorite, but paid $3.90 so I collected nearly $20. Next up was the featured Grade1 Canadian International. In my analysis I narrowed the field to three. On the big turf days here at Woodbine the Europeans typically dominate, as they do on Breeders' Cup. But I think that the massive course which features an uphill run to the backstretch is also very Euro-like. So my top pick was Brown Panther. He was a multiple Group winner in Europe and an impressive 5-for-7 at the mile and half distance. In spite of this the DRF listed him at 20/1.....really? The program odds were 6/5! I had tripled the bet. Big Blue Kitten was a multiple Grade 1 winner in the US but had not won a graded stakes since August, of 2013! Probably figured as a good underneath play. The upset choice I thought would be another Euro, Hillstar. He was also listed at 20/1 by the DRF. He got top euro rider Ryan Moore and he boasted a win and three seconds in four Group races across the pond. But his second behind Brown Panther made me lean towards that one. So as I opened the replay video they were going into the gate. I looked for the odds on #4 Brown Panther and noted he was scratched......NO! Who was the favorite? Hillstar! If I was at the track he would easily have become my pick. Sure enough, Moore gave him a great ride and he rallied through the stretch to score as the 6/5 favorite. Sigh........
The Grade 2 Nearctic was a six furlong turf sprint and I liked Excaper to either wire the field or press he leaders under Emma Jayne Wilson. But as they left the gate Excaper was quickly outsprinted and sat fourth, but some five lengths off the lead. Horses that like to be on or pressing the lead typically don't want to run anywhere else, and such was the case here as he ran evenly around the course to be fourth under the wire. And so it came down to my final bet, which happened to be my "BEST" of the day. It was the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor at a mile and a quarter for fillies and mares. My pick was Just The Judge. She had was 4/0-0-3 in 2014 but those were in three Group stakes and the Grade 1 Beverly D at Arlington on Million Day. Looking down her pp's she showed a Group 1 win last year and a near miss in Group 1 company, and obvious class play. But it was the Grade 1 Beverly D that caught my eye. She was a close third that day. The runner-up that day was Stephanie's Kitten who came right back to win the Grade 1 Flower Bowl and is Breeders' Cup bound. La Tia set the pace in the Beverly D before weakening late. She made her next start in the Grade 3 Athenia and wired that field. And Emollient had finished off the board in the Beverly D but exited that event to win the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive at Santa Anita and looked to return to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf where she was a good third last year. All of this made Just the Judge a standout to me. She sat in fifth after a mile under Euro rider Jamie Spencer, but less than five off the lead. As they moved through the sweeping far turn Spencer saved ground rather than rally wide. As heads turned for home there appeared to be no where to run, but he pushed Just The Judge into a spot between horses and bumped slightly with them as though saying, "LOOK OUT, I'm coming through!" She burst clear of the pack and took the lead! Meanwhile the other Euro, Odeliz, who was my second choice (and being ridden by Moore) had enjoyed a clean but wide trip was flying. The two Euro mares battled through the final furlong but it was Just The Judge clearly the winner! I waited for some objection or inquiry off the bumping, but nothing was forthcoming! I WIN! WHOOOOOOO HOOOOOO!
She paid $5.20 so I cashed out for over $50! Two-for-three on the day and another profitable day! For the weekend my totals read:
14-for-28 50% Profit of $100+
It had been a great weekend indeed! Two weeks to the Breeders' Cup!
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