Friday, November 7, 2014

November 6

Today was one of those days I always "dreamed" of when I was working.......it was a sunny Thursday afternoon, and when I was working I would have said, "....if I were retired, I'd be at the races today!"

When I was on the porch Wednesday morning and didn't have any real plans for the day, it struck me.....this is exactly the kind of day that I'd thought about when I was working.  I can spend today handicapping, because I can.  Not because tomorrow is a big stakes day, it's a racing day.  And tomorrow I can spend the day at the races betting maiden races and claiming races in the beautiful South Florida weather because they pay the same on Thursday afternoon as they do on Breeders' Cup weekend!  And so I handicapped the Gulfstream West card, Aqueduct, Churchill, and Hawthorne.  I had planned to handicap Finger Lakes, but for some reason the DRF only had the cards for the 5th and the 7th.  But on Thursday morning there they were, so I added races from Finger Lakes. 

When I arrived at Gulfstream West I immediately walked out to the rail, snapped a "selfie" and posted it on Facebook as a reminder to all my working friends that one of the greatest perks of retirement is to be in control of what you do and that you can do it just because you can!  And so the day began.  It made the day just a little sweeter when I looked at the racing simulcast signals - it was obviously cold and rainy!  And here I am in the upper 70's under sunny skies.  Could it get any better?  The first pick on the sheet was from Finger Lakes where I liked the obvious favorite, Goodnewsisnonews who was first off the claim for Linda Rice.  He'd been facing much better at Monmouth, Saratoga, and Belmont, so the "drop" into Finger Lakes non-winners of two-lifetime should make him an easy winner.  He rallied up the rail, forged a short lead in mid-stretch but was outfinished on the outside to be a close third.  The opener over the sloppy Aqueduct main track was a non-winners of three-lifetime and Seven Stars looked very obvious.  She was third off a long layoff today, but more importantly first off the claim for top claiming trainer David Jacobson.  The rivals she faced today struggled to reach the 60 plateau on the Beyer speed figure scale, but she had hit this in five of her last seven starts.  And then there's the obvious.....Seven Stars was breaking from post SEVEN!  Duh.  She rated off the pace through the turn and moved four-wide into the lane.  She collared the leader at the 16th pole and edged clear to the wire.  I had doubled the bet so I cashed for over $20! 

Next up was the opener at GP West.  Capriccio Blue was bet down to even money and he alternated taking the lead and being passed by my second choice, Hot Coffee.  But when they turned for home he spurted away from that one to be two clear.  But 'Coffee was not done and nailed him in the final strides, second.  The opener at Churchill Downs I liked Cadron who was dismissed at 7/2.  I thought he was the clear speed of the race and as heads turned for home and he was coasting two clear on an easy lead I was calculating how much money I would collect.  But then here came a late runner....WHERE'S THE WIRE!!!!! Nailed in the final strides!  In the second at Aqueduct I was initially all against Oohlala.  She had more starts than any of her maiden rivals and was listed at 4/5 in the program...why?  But then I saw Dave Liftin's column.  Not only did he pick her, she was his "best" of the day!  Really?  Dave is rarely wrong with his "best bets" so I added him.  One of those rare days when I should have gone with my thoughts.  I had Redbeard listed as the third choice and she won at 6/1 while Oohlala struggled to get third at 6/5.  I lost all chance in Gulfstream's 2nd when Lucky Rascal broke slowly in a five furlong turf sprint - 6th.  I had to wait until the next at Gulfstream before my next pick went into the gate, but this was to be my first winner locally.  Whiskey Tap stalked the pace three wide, moved to the lead then fought determinedly through the lane to hold the lead.  Close, but a WINNER!  Cashed for a measly $10, but that's better than tossing the ticket on the ground :) 
Note:  My Own Photo From The Rail!
At Churchill Downs Heir To Dare looked much the best on several angles.  Five of the seven runners she faced here wanted the lead and she was a stalker, drawn on the outside.  She was dropping out of a series of $20K races to today's $10K spot and trainer Brad Cox was a 30% winner with jockey Shawn Bridgmohan.  She stalked the lead for sure, but was four wide into the lead, losing valuable ground while the winner enjoyed a rail-skimming trip.  Second at 4/5.  Back to Finger Lakes where Pleaseandthankyou was the local handicapper's "BET of the Day."  He outclassed her rivals by multiple lengths even on an average dy.  The last time he'd run in conditioned company she romped by over fifteen lengths.  Much the same today as he broke right to the front despite the outside draw and was L-O-N-G gone under wraps.  Sadly he left the gate as the prohibitive 1/4.  Still, my triple investment led to a collection of over $20. 

Less than a half an hour later it was time for my first "BET of the Day!"  I had one each at Aqueduct, Churchill, and Hawthorne.  This one was the fifth in New York. I had seen House Rules run at Gulfstream this past winter and she was a good second in TWO graded stakes.  The first in the Grade 2 Davona Dale behind the very talented, but ill-fated Onlyforyou; then a very close second in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks behind In Tune, who was my "best" on Derby Day.  Today she was facing allowance rivals and looked much the best to me.  She was the even money favorite as she ranged up three wide into the lane to take over and draw off.  WHOOO HOOO! 

I cashed for $40!  That's two wins in a row and I had dead aim on a third a half an hour later in the opener at Hawthorne.  This was a maiden claiming event going 3/4 of a mile and it looked to me like Sandro was clearly the one to beat.  There were four first-time starters in the field and if none of them wanted the lead then Sandro would be loose on an easy lead.  But, he'd shown the ability to run from a pressing/stalking spot and that gave him a huge edge on (a) the firsters who would falter due to lack of experience and (b) the deep closers - especially Bahnke who was my second choice - because he'd have first run to the wire.  The race played out exactly, well almost exactly, as I'd seen it.  Two FTS runners dueled through the turn with Sandro right behind them.  He made his move and was first one clear to the wire, but Bahnke had made his move early and was now breathing down the neck of my choice.  He was gaining with every stride.....PHOTO FINISH!  I thought, both when I saw it live and in the slow-motion replay that I'd won, but the exact placement of the wire was unclear to me.  Fortunately I was right, it was my third winner in a  row.  I'd doubled the bet so I cashed for nearly $20. 

Three of the next four races saw me run second :(  At Gulfstream, Heiko was loose on the lead for top rider Edgar Zayas.  Yet, despite absolutely no pressure he ran the first half mile in a testing :46 and change.  Could not resist one closer, caught in deep stretch to be second.  Midnight Notes was my pick over the Churchill turf and she was a perfect 2-for-2 in Louisville.  The difference she made her move at least four wide off the turn while the winner enjoyed a soft trip up the rail.....too late, best-of-the-rest second.  And at Aqueduct I thought for sure I would win when Celebrated Talent went right to the front and was long gone, until the final strides; second at 7/2.  Back to Finger Lakes for their finale and I liked Special Action.  He would be a daylight winner with any of his FIVE 2013 efforts, but today he was being PLUNGED in claiming level and his pp's didn't show a single sprint race, causing all kinds of red flags.  Generally speaking I'm pretty good at looking in-between the lines and seeing who's being thrown to the wolves as a "fire sale" and who's dropping for the win;  that was the way I saw this one.  He was sent off as a prohibitive 2/5 and did not get the smoothest of trips as he was pinned down inside on the deep, sloppy going.  Still, he moved through easily - it appeared - through the turn and burst clear into the stretch.  But the second choice on the board was driving towards him and it was very close.........WINNER! 

What's ironic is that my selections at Finger Lakes (where Jeff and I wrapped up his senior trip, "Track Tour 2000," was that I went two-for-three at this small racing venue and I nearly didn't play here today!  I missed on the next four without really being close as they passed mid-stretch before it was time for my final live race.  This was the 9th at Churchill Downs, an allowance-optional claimer with conditions for non-winners of two allowance races, or a $62.5K claiming tag.  Right away Saffron Hall JUMPED off the page to me.  Not only was she 3-for-4 at this demanding nine furlong distance, but she was on a three-race win streak having taken down three straight allowance contests on the turf.  Best yet, the last one was an allowance race with non-winners of THREE conditions!  So today she'd run for the tag and actually drop in class.  She was my "BET of the DAY!" in Louisville!  But then something happened that makes - to me - racing so intriguing.  As oh-so-obvious as she seemed to me, somehow she was hovering around 3/1 at post time!  The race played out just as I'd seen it as she stalked the pace, moved to challenge at the top of the stretch and then blew by at the 16th pole. 

I could not believe my good fortune when the tote board flashed $6.80 in the win slot!  My "prime time" investment meant a return of nearly $70!  I headed home knowing that if I won just one of the last three not only would I finish well over 30% wins for the day, but in all likelihood in the black for the day.  And that would be amazing considering that besides Saffron Hall all of my winners had been even-money or less.  The fifth at Hawthorne was a claiming event on the turf and Saratoga Boot looked best on the drop.  The crowd agreed and sent her off as the 6/5 favorite.  She pressed the pace, moved to the lead into the lane.......and faded to fifth.  That's not good.  Then the finale at Gulfstream I had Todd Pletcher's Austa in a maiden claiming event.  He's nearly 30% with maiden claimers and she was making what looked like a winning move on the far turn when she had to take up sharply.  If you watched it it was the check that was so severe, but it was that all her momentum was put on hold for a count.  She re-rallied nicely, but now it was too late to catch the leaders and she was 4th while wide into the stretch.  So, it all came down to the finale at Hawthorne.  Gentleman's Code was plunging from consistently running well, and often favored, at the $20K level into today's $4K level.  But again, I thought none of his races were bad efforts, and he needed confidence booster.  As they loaded into the gate he was hovering between a remarkable 2/1 and 9/5 on the tote board! With Gentleman's Code being my "BEST" of the day in Illinois, the $56-$60 return would indeed make me a profitable winner on the day.  As the last horse approached the gate an 11/1 runner tossed his rider.  Sigh....an obvious late scratch, but what that meant was that all of that money in the win pool was now eliminated and my odds dropped to 4/5.  I was lucky that they floated back up to even money by post time.  Just as I thought, once they turned for home the race was over as Gentleman's Code galloped away by daylight in a romp! 

The return netted me over $40, and it cut the final deficit to single digits, but not quite enough to be able to proclaim the day a profitable one.  Still, for me it had been a GREAT day.  Spent the day at the track, in beautiful South Florida weather - never got above 80 degrees - and I was proven right on many of my selections!


No comments:

Post a Comment