A Good Day At Gulfstream Park West
A BETTER DAY At Aqueduct!
It was a sunny Thursday afternoon at Gulfstream Park West, a far cry from the weather in Ohio and Pennsylvania where we will be next week. I had handicapped seven different tracks that were running today. There were thirty-eight selections on my 3-page printout for today as I walked in. After checking the scratches I ended up with thirty-three investments on the day, and as the title says - it was indeed a good day locally as I scored with three winners over the Miami Gardens track and had three big wins in New York. The first play of the day came from Laurel in Maryland. I liked Cross Mountain who was listed as the 6/5 program favorite, but was 2/1 when I placed my bet with five minutes to post time. He was running for a barn that scored 21% off the shelf at a nice $2.12 ROI. He'd buried this level of company the last time he ran and I looked for more of the same today. As they went into the gate the flash on the board dropped him to 6/5, and after they'd left the post the last flash saw him plummet to a miniscule 1/5. He sat sixth into the turn, swept by while five wide and drew off through deep stretch. Though I didn't make much money, there's nothing better than starting your day at the races with a winner! Right back at Aqueduct where I liked 4/5 favorite Melville. He stalked the leaders into the turn, glided up to the lead and was clear in mid-stretch. But in the final two jumps a flying finish by a longshot cost him the win....second. At Laurel I was a juicy 11/1 and was right there on the far turn before fading badly. At Gulfstream I liked Shiloh on the turf. But as the field hit the first turn he was carried far into the center of the course. He made a threatening move entering the stretch, but had nothing left - fifth at 2/1. Next on the list was the 3rd from Finger Lakes. For some reason, unlike last week, GPW was not carrying the signal from the small, upstate New York track. No worries, I placed the bet via my TwinSpires account on my phone and then watched the race through the wonder of technology on my phone. Suave Tiger was the 7/5 favorite and he dueled with a longshot through the far turn, and then couldn't match strides....a distant second, but clearly the best of the rest. The third at Gulfstream West was a claiming sprint and in my mind it came down to one of two runners - either 5-Van Citra or 4-Alaco Castle who were both first-off-the-claim for new barns today. The former was going out for Peter Walder who is good with those kind, but my pick was Alaco Castle. He was a runaway winner for $16K in June, earning a 94 Beyer. So today's cheaper price provided a great opportunity to wake up for his new connections and for strong riding Paco Lopez. Sure enough, as heads turned for home it was Alaco Castle and Van Citra battling for supremacy. At the 16th pole 'Castle cleared off and was the winner!
Note: I shot this photo from the rail!
Best of all he had left the gate at 7/2 (as opposed to Van Citra's 6/5 odds) - so he paid a generous $9.00, and I got back well over $20! At Churchill I was a well-beaten 6th behind my second choice, Red Maserati who was the 4/5 favorite. But I'd never have bet him - he was 0-for-9 in 2014, 1-for-11 at Churchill, making his first start off a layoff with NO WORKS! AND dropping in class? Not for me at all, but he wired the field - go figure. At Aqueduct I was leery of Island Candy, but he was Dave Liftin's "BEST" of the day. This seemed a lot like last week when I didn't like his "BEST" but trusted him and lost.....same story today, dismal 8th at even money. Bold Deed chased a longshot loose-on-the-lead winner at Finger Lakes - second. In the fifth at Laurel I liked Zhivago despite the outside draw, post position 14. He was prominent at the top of the lane and seemed to be spinning his wheels. As the camera zoomed in on the leader and his two closest challengers Zhivago was no longer in the picture, but with 100 yards to go here came a blur of a white/gray roan closer - ZHIVAGO! Sooooooo close, but only second best at 7/2, sigh. At GP West Fireman's Carry was bet down to 4/5 favoritism off the class drop and with sharp human connections. Jockey Orlando Bochachica went right to the front and was loose on an easy lead. When the pressers accelerated to him as they spun out of the turn he had no response and was an even third. Wow. Closing out this streak of non-winners was Power at Churchill Downs who was the 5/2 second choice but was a non-threatening sixth. FINALLY I had something to cheer about, in New York. I had two "prime time" BEST BETS of the day and both came at Aqueduct. This was the first of those. The 6th race was a Maiden Special event going a one-turn mile. I thought Genre looked much the best. In his debut trainer Todd Pletcher had sent this guy out under the guidance of Johnny Velazquez and he was second, but nearly SIX lengths clear of the show runner. He was the even money favorite as the gates sprung open. As they hit the far turn JR made his move and he poked his head in front. But the third choice on the rail was not about to give in, and the second choice now ranged up on the outside! The three of them hit the top of the lane in lock step and dueled to the 1/8th pole. Genre was under right-handed pressure, but was doggedly fighting the outside runner, while the rail runner had given way. All the way to the final yards they dueled in a terrific stretch battle.....PHOTO FINISH! 
Yes, that's me on the inside! WHOOOO HOOOOOO! I had figured to win, but not by that narrow a margin! Cashed out for over $40 :) I thought I was sitting on a nice score when Crystal Grit went into the gate at GP West at a big 9/2. I had tripled the bet on this runner from the Eddie Plesa stable with Paco Lopez up. They are winning at nearly 40% together! But it was all over before it started when the announcer called, "And they're off, and that was Crystal Grit getting checked sharply at the start, losing several lengths....." Wow. A bit of a middle move gave me a brief hope, but he faded to 7th. I was thinking I was going to make it up on the next when at Churchill Downs Wings of Prayer had dead aim on my second choice in mid-stretch at a big 5/1. I had doubled the bet and I could see the $60 cash payoff on the horizon when he was squeezed at the furlong marker! Not enough to check him, but it slowed his momentum just enough, so by the time he had his stride back he finished with a flurry, but was a head short, second...grrr.Next on my list was the 7th from Aqueduct, a nine furlong turf allowance. My pick was the second half of the entry, 1a-Party Now. But I had noted in my analysis that if she scratched in favor of the first half of the entry I would defer to 7-Bohemian Dance, who was listed at 6/1 in the program. So as I looked at the board the #1 was running, not the 1a. So I headed to the window with my mind on Bohemian Dance. In her last she was in stakes company in the Lady Baltimore, and had no where to run in mid-stretch, but still only losing by less than two lengths. I expected jockey Javier Castellano to sit mid-pack, but as the field broke from the gate she went right to the front. As they spun out of the clubhouse turn the opening fraction was a slow :25 and change and she was still clear on a loose rein through an opening half mile in a pokey :52 and change. This is looking great! The 3/4 fraction was absurdly slow in 1:18 and change. Clear by two into the lane, here came the favorite and a longshot. At the 16th pole it looked like they had the momentum, but Castellano still had something left.....surged to the wire....WINNNER!
The two best parts to the story were that (a) Bohemian Dance had left the gate at 7/2 and (b) while I'd planned on a double investment on my initial pick I had not noted an investment amount should that one scratch....but I stuck with it! So the $9.20 payoff resulted in a return of nearly $50! Uptown Draw looked much the best and very deserving of his 4/5 odds in the 2nd at Hawthorne based on his class drop, but he showed nothing until a belated rally for third in mid-stretch. At Finger Lakes my "best" of the day was in their featured 7th where trainer Jerimiah Englehart had an entry. EITHER would have been worthy of short odds favoritism, but with two separate jockeys named it looked like you would get two for one here. But, only the 1a-Rockford ran. As I watched the race on my phone I smiled because the weather in upstate New York was apparently very much the same as that of Kim's parents in Erie, Pa as you could barely see Rockford pulling away at the top of the lane through all the blowing SNOW! Didn't pay much, but it was still win number five for the day. He'd no sooner crossed the wire when they were off at Laurel in the 7th, a five furlong turf sprint. Golden Story was my choice. He'd been facing tougher in Kentucky and New York and was coming off a near-miss second in New Jersey. In the first two jumps he was clear by daylight. He took them easily into the far turn and when they hit the top of the lane he opened up by seven widening lengths without ever being asked to run! The easiest $10 of the day! Missed in the opener at Del Mar with Brad Free's "best" of the day and then was no where to be found in Churchill's 7th.
As I noted in the video recap (see below), it's funny how handicapping is an esoteric "art" as sometimes it's about the numbers and/or angles, and other times not. Creative Art in Hawthorne's third was 5/0-4-0 locally and 21/5-10-2 for his career. A CLEAR case of a runner with "seconditis." But, as I noted in my analysis, ".....if he's ever getting over the hump it's today with speed on the inside to track....." Even as I got ready to watch the race I wondered what had drawn me to him. But he just "felt" like a winner here. The co-favorite was dueling on the lead with another pace runner and Creative Art was positioned perfectly outside as they turned for home. I was thinking, well, he either hangs again, or this is it. And I had been right on the money! He collared the leader and then burst by to the wire, winning by daylight! At Gulfstream I tripled the bet on Bachata Dancer who looked to be the lone speed today despite the outside draw under Paco Lopez. When a longshot went to the front and he pressed the pace through a :50 half mile while two clear of the rest of the field I knew I was home free. Lopez shook up the reins as they swung out of the turn, and his head was briefly in front....but then he stopped badly, 8th :( It was now time for the finale at the Big A in New York. When I'd handicapped the field and had seen that Simple Love was clearly my choice to win I thought about how I ranked his chances compared to Genre from the 6th who was my "BEST" of the day in NY. I initially marked him as a triple bet, but before I closed the pp's I changed that to another "prime time" play. He was simply the best, period. He had run second in back-to-back $50K nw3L events and was now dropping in for a $20K tag. Even better, those two races had earned him Beyer figures that were better than any LIFETIME number earned by all his rivals with two exceptions. And one of those exceptions had already been beaten soundly by Simple Love. He stalked the leaders while hugging the rail into the far turn. What to do, swing wide for the stretch, or wait for an opening? The battling leaders floated three off the rail and Simple Love glided through and opened up by three quickly! It looked to be all over but the shouting, until in deep stretch a 15/1 closer made it interesting.....but not so much that I ever really worried!
PRIME TIME WINNER #2! The 4th at Hawthorne saw me backing former student, now top jockey Rosemary Homeister, Jr. on Ratatat over the Illinois turf course. She looked to get a nice pressing trip and she was right there turning for home at 4/1. My double investment was going to net me $50 or more and I was thinking about messaging Rose how nicely she'd positioned Ratatat when the horse simply stopped running - faded to fifth :( The ninth at Gulfstream Park West was a claiming event going a two-turn mile. Alguna had raced for this claiming tag twice in her last four starts and DOMINATED both of them. She was 7/2 in the program and I was betting the minimum. In the early betting she was a prohibitive 3/5 and I briefly considered upping the bet, but considered how I'd lost earlier today with a couple of short priced favorites that I'd been happy afterwards that I had only backed them with the minimum. Alguna was outrun, along with the rest of the field to the far turn. But the two dueling front-runners were both double digits on the tote board. But when the fractions were posted at :25 and :50 and she was still at least six off the leaders I was a bit concerned. The Paco Lopez asked her to run and by the time they'd spun out of the turn and headed home he had dead aim on the surviving front-runner. By the furlong marker she was in front and Lopez had her under wraps to the wire. Win #9 on the day :) 
UNBELIEVABLE! I collected over $60 and guaranteed a winning day! By the time the last race was in the books I'd finished with eleven wins from thirty-three picks (a nice full day of racing!), while I was second seven times.....would have had a BIG profitable day if a couple of those had come home :) But, it was a great day at the races, especially under the sunny skies and upper-70 degree weather.
November 13 Video Recap
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