November 16 - 20

Nov. 16:  Another Talented Pletcher Colt

Over the weekend I had two runners that I really liked.  The first was a class play in the Grade 3 Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct going a mile and a half.  Multiple Grade 1 winner Big Blue Kitten.  The only problem was that he is a deep closer and subject to the pace scenario.  But as the DRF Stakes Analysis video analysts both pointed out, he was simply the best horse.  Well, the pace was slow and he didn't have the smoothest of trips, second.

But the play of the weekend came in an allowance spot on Sunday. I had read that top North American trainer Todd Pletcher was ready to unleash another colt into stakes company, but decided to go the conservative route and send him into an allowance spot.  The normally conservative Pletcher was quoted before the race that he had expected Liam's Map to score handily at first asking at Saratoga, but he'd disappointed.  But on September 26 he drew off with authority going a one-turn mile at Belmont earning a big 98 Beyer.  Liam's Map was considered a leading candidate for the Grade 3 Discovery Handicap, but was placed here in an entry-level allowance with stakes races on his radar for later.  So, expectations were high.  He looked like he laid over the field and he was ultra-impressive.  I am VERY excited to see him run this winter at Gulfstream!

 

 

 

Nov. 19:  Quick Start, But....

I decided to make Wednesday my "track day" this week to get around my various medical appointments.  I debated about actually going out to GPW again, but not only was it rainy and chilly, but I was not feeling all that good.  Didn't help matters that when I checked for scratches the weather was bad all over the country, most especially in Louisville: 

So I played online.  I scored in the opener at Gulfstream when Sir Edgar went wire to wire.  He had to duel from the top of the lane to the 16th pole, but he edged clear late.  I ran off three consecutive wins in New York to run my early record to 4-for-8 when Rock N Spur rallied from WAY back to win Finger Lakes' 3rd and then Dorian Will won the fourth at a big $8.70.  The good news was I had doubled the bet and cashed for over $40; the bad news was I had planned to triple the bet but after watching the races I was leery that he was NOT the favorite when it seemed so obvious to me.  Should have trusted my own handicapping - cost me over $20.  Then I scored with the odds-on favorite in the 4th at Aqueduct.  I missed on three picks, then scored back-to-back again.  Troubleinrivercity was pounded from 6/5 to 1/5 in the final minute of wagering in the 6th at Finger Lakes; then I scored with my BEST of the Day when Walk Away Slow was much the best at Gulfstream Park West. 

So at this point in the day, 2:30 pm, I was 6-for-14 and having a wonderful day of racing and handicapping.  Over the next hour and a half I missed on nine straight including not one, not two, not three, but FOUR second place finishes.  Those cost me possible winnings of over $100 and I was doomed for the day.  I added to the streak when the final four runners finished 3rd, 7th, 2nd (after leading all the way into the stretch), and 9th (after leading into the far turn at 7/1).  It was not the way I'd seen the day going.

Nov. 20:  Two-For-Four

Wednesday turned out to be a good day overall as Kim and I went to the Broward Center for the Performing Arts and saw "The Phantom of the Opera."  It was fabulous!

So Thursday I was home from my two medical appointments before 9:30 am and with little on my plate, other than packing for our upcoming trip to Ohio and Pennsylvania, I decided to handicap the GPW card and see if I could find some solid plays.  I did.  In the second I thought Kiton looked much the best; third off the claim for Jorge Navarro and with a 38% winning rider....he was. 

 

 Right back in the third where I did NOT like the obvious favorite.  Instead I went with Takethedoeandrun to win this Maiden Special turf sprint.  Paco Lopez and trainer Eddie Plesa are regular winners together, and I'd cashed MANY times during my Monmouth Park Project this summer with them.  He was a handy winner - while the favorite was off the board!  Double right for my analysis!  The $8.40 payoff led to over $20. 

I had two more picks.  In the 4th El Bendinat looked even stronger than the first two and I was certain I was about to go 3-for-3 as he ranged up along the loose-on-the-lead front runner entering the turn.  But that one had plenty left and I was second at 4/5.  In the 9th we were sprinting on the turf again and I went with Full Moon's Back who was second, beaten a nose in stakes company last out.  Seemed obvious in an entry-level allowance.  Right to the front, in complete control and not being pressed or pressured.  I am a sure winner, but when heads turned for home and the rest of the field geared up for a strong finish 'Moon had nothing :( Faded badly to fourth.  My BET of the DAY was in the 10th where maiden special dropper Suzi'sprideofparis was a standout in a one mile turf test.  I'm sure you've noticed that two of my three picks so far were on the turf and it had not rained all day....but as the horses were leaving the paddock in the 9th and on-track host Ron Nicoletti reminded everyone about the late daily double he reminded everyone that the 10th and final was taken OFF the turf.  What the???? And of course my pick was scratched :(  Cost me a winning day as I lost a whole dollar while winning 50% of my picks. 

Only two weeks away from Opening Day at Gulfstream Park!  HORRAY!