November 22

Saturday November 22

Happy Birthday Mom - #80!

We flew to Ohio and it was 23 degrees when we landed!  The next morning, I had told Kim it didn't matter how cold it was I WOULD be going to get coffee no matter the temp.  It was 27 degrees, but when I looked at the rental car it looked like a sheet of ice.  Still, I thought it would defrost off....then I put one foot on the driveway which LOOKED wet, but it was solid ice and I nearly went head over heels.  No coffee for us, at least not now!  But my wonderful sister ventured out around 9:30 am and by the time she got here it was nearly all thawed out and we got our cup of joe!  Mom opened gifts, we watched college football, and then went out to dinner with my brother Kenny and his wife, my sister Laurie and her husband, with my niece Khloe at the Olive Garden.  Meanwhile I had been watching the races all day long from several different tracks.  Here's how the day played out. 

The first three races (from Aqueduct, Delta Downs, and Gulfstream) were all off-the-board finishes for me.  But in the fourth race on my sheet I had backed Readybytheline in the New York Stallion Stakes for colts.  I did NOT like the favorite and I thought this guy had a chance to wire the field.  What caught my eye, and was confirmed after I read Dave Liftin's analysis, was that this guy had absolutely freaked first off the claim for trainer Michelle Nevin earlier in the year.  His 104 BSF figure that day, going a one-turn mile would bury this field, going a similar seven furlongs today.  Sure enough, he burst from the gate and was L-O-N-G gone!  And check out the nice price! 

Whooooo Hoooo!  That race was no longer official when they were in off in the second of the many stakes races at Delta Downs, this one being The Louisiana Jewel.  Wind Chill Factor was "dropping" out of far stiffer company from a Churchill allowance test - the winner was running in the co-featured Princess today.  She was sent off as the 6/5 favorite.  She was near the back as they approached the far turn and I was a bit concerned.  But then she circled the field and drew off as EASILY the best.  Two in a row! 

Less than five minutes later and we were out of the gate in Chicago for the co-featured Sun Power Stakes at Hawthorne.  I had read in the Daily Racing Form that Dom The Bomb would most certainly be a short priced favorite, but also a very likely winner.  When I got the Brisnet pp's he was first on the "Prime Power" index by double digits.  A multiple point advantage here is a near certain winner, so not only did his speed figures point him out, but this number was a good as it gets.  Sure enough, he pressed the pace to the turn, took over as he pleased and merely galloped out past the wire winning by about a pole!  THREE IN A ROW!  This is the kind of day I was hoping for :) 

Then I went through six straight losses with FIVE of them not even hitting the board!  Unfortunately five of them were added money investments as well.  The two worth mentioning were first, the Grade 3 My Charmer Handicap at Gulfstream Park West.  I was initially drawn to this race because I saw that Daring Kathy was running and the article in the DRF talked about her being the LONE Speed.  But when I looked over the pp's all of those had come against lesser and going shorter than today's 9 furlongs.  I settled on local "Horse for the Course" Angelica Zapata who had run six times here with five wins and a second by a half length.  Her connections talked about wanting to get a graded win on her resume and that not once, but twice this year she "should" have earned gotten one.  Her stalking presence, I thought would put her in perfect position.  She was, but when the real running started, Daring Kathy had slowed the pace to a crawl and wired the field.....meanwhile Angelica Zapata had no response into the lane - fifth.  The other came on the turf at the Fair Grounds.  I liked Red Strike enough to make him a minimum selection.  His speed figures were multiple lengths better than all of his rivals and he had top turf rider James Graham.  But in the betting action before the race he was being hammered to 1/9 and then 1/5 with ten minutes to post.  Well, the reason I didn't initially make him an added money bet was because he had built a 7/0-1-1 record locally.  With that kind of action, the speed figure advantage, and the fact that Graham was aboard for top conditioner Tom Proctor I decided to triple the bet.  He stalked the leaders to the far turn, moved effortlessly to the lead into the lane and quickly opened up two.  Still, I had the thought in my head that the Fair Grounds stretch is ultra-long and often runners are caught when seemingly home free.  But at 3/5 he seemed solid.....no, nailed in the final fifty yards, second.  So wish I'd stayed with the initial bet.  Sigh.......It was at about this time we headed out for the big birthday dinner.  Good times!  When we got back I opened up the computer to watch the final seven races on my sheet.  First up was the $250K Delta Downs Mile.  Last winter I had cashed two big tickets on the champion of this race, Grand Contender in stakes races at Lone Star Park.  But, he is a front runner and there was other speed in the race.  While he looked like THE speed, I was drawn to one of my favorite horses, Sunbean.  For many years in ANY state-bred Louisiana stakes race and in some open stakes (in Louisiana) I was nearly always a winner with the superstar, Star Guitar.  When he retired about two years ago his owner and trainer had Sunbean and he's become nearly as effective.  He's built a career record of 11-of-17 and five of seven this year.  He's a stalker and looked sharp to me.  He was a generous 3/1 in the program.  He sat just off the leaders, and when asked on the turn he accelerated in the "race of the day" as he ran away easily.

Unfortunately for me the crowd saw what I saw and bet him down to 4/5 favoritism.  After Treaty Oak was way too far back and rallied belatedly for third over the FG turf I thought I had a sure winner at Delta Downs when 4/5 Bridaria led into the stretch, then rebroke to open up by daylight, only to be caught nearing the wire, second.  But I cashed on my second stakes at Hawthorne next when Timeaday proved easily best.  She was the ONLY multiple winner in the field and last time out she pounded OPEN company.  That gave her a huge advantage over her rivals in today's Showtime Deb Stakes. 

Cashed for over $20 :)  I was 17/1 with a price play at the Fair Grounds, but he ran to his odds, 9th.  Appealing Cat was steadied and checked on the far turn when trying to rally up the rail in Del Mar's featured Grade 3 Red Carpet, 6th.  But in the final race it was my "BET of the DAY."  Lucy's Bob Boy had won the A Huevo Stakes last year, and loved the Charles Town course.  He was an amazing 20-for-27 through his career, but best of all he was the LONE SPEED in a short field of five.  Right to the front and easily wire-to-wire, just galloping through the final 16th! 

So for the day I was a solid 6-for-19, 32%.  Well done.  But with only one good price and that stretch of six misses in the middle of the day I did not make any money.  One more big weekend before the start of the Championship meet at Gulfstream on December 6!

November 16 - 20

Nov. 16:  Another Talented Pletcher Colt

Over the weekend I had two runners that I really liked.  The first was a class play in the Grade 3 Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct going a mile and a half.  Multiple Grade 1 winner Big Blue Kitten.  The only problem was that he is a deep closer and subject to the pace scenario.  But as the DRF Stakes Analysis video analysts both pointed out, he was simply the best horse.  Well, the pace was slow and he didn't have the smoothest of trips, second.

But the play of the weekend came in an allowance spot on Sunday. I had read that top North American trainer Todd Pletcher was ready to unleash another colt into stakes company, but decided to go the conservative route and send him into an allowance spot.  The normally conservative Pletcher was quoted before the race that he had expected Liam's Map to score handily at first asking at Saratoga, but he'd disappointed.  But on September 26 he drew off with authority going a one-turn mile at Belmont earning a big 98 Beyer.  Liam's Map was considered a leading candidate for the Grade 3 Discovery Handicap, but was placed here in an entry-level allowance with stakes races on his radar for later.  So, expectations were high.  He looked like he laid over the field and he was ultra-impressive.  I am VERY excited to see him run this winter at Gulfstream!

 

 

 

Nov. 19:  Quick Start, But....

I decided to make Wednesday my "track day" this week to get around my various medical appointments.  I debated about actually going out to GPW again, but not only was it rainy and chilly, but I was not feeling all that good.  Didn't help matters that when I checked for scratches the weather was bad all over the country, most especially in Louisville: 

So I played online.  I scored in the opener at Gulfstream when Sir Edgar went wire to wire.  He had to duel from the top of the lane to the 16th pole, but he edged clear late.  I ran off three consecutive wins in New York to run my early record to 4-for-8 when Rock N Spur rallied from WAY back to win Finger Lakes' 3rd and then Dorian Will won the fourth at a big $8.70.  The good news was I had doubled the bet and cashed for over $40; the bad news was I had planned to triple the bet but after watching the races I was leery that he was NOT the favorite when it seemed so obvious to me.  Should have trusted my own handicapping - cost me over $20.  Then I scored with the odds-on favorite in the 4th at Aqueduct.  I missed on three picks, then scored back-to-back again.  Troubleinrivercity was pounded from 6/5 to 1/5 in the final minute of wagering in the 6th at Finger Lakes; then I scored with my BEST of the Day when Walk Away Slow was much the best at Gulfstream Park West. 

So at this point in the day, 2:30 pm, I was 6-for-14 and having a wonderful day of racing and handicapping.  Over the next hour and a half I missed on nine straight including not one, not two, not three, but FOUR second place finishes.  Those cost me possible winnings of over $100 and I was doomed for the day.  I added to the streak when the final four runners finished 3rd, 7th, 2nd (after leading all the way into the stretch), and 9th (after leading into the far turn at 7/1).  It was not the way I'd seen the day going.

Nov. 20:  Two-For-Four

Wednesday turned out to be a good day overall as Kim and I went to the Broward Center for the Performing Arts and saw "The Phantom of the Opera."  It was fabulous!

So Thursday I was home from my two medical appointments before 9:30 am and with little on my plate, other than packing for our upcoming trip to Ohio and Pennsylvania, I decided to handicap the GPW card and see if I could find some solid plays.  I did.  In the second I thought Kiton looked much the best; third off the claim for Jorge Navarro and with a 38% winning rider....he was. 

 

 Right back in the third where I did NOT like the obvious favorite.  Instead I went with Takethedoeandrun to win this Maiden Special turf sprint.  Paco Lopez and trainer Eddie Plesa are regular winners together, and I'd cashed MANY times during my Monmouth Park Project this summer with them.  He was a handy winner - while the favorite was off the board!  Double right for my analysis!  The $8.40 payoff led to over $20. 

I had two more picks.  In the 4th El Bendinat looked even stronger than the first two and I was certain I was about to go 3-for-3 as he ranged up along the loose-on-the-lead front runner entering the turn.  But that one had plenty left and I was second at 4/5.  In the 9th we were sprinting on the turf again and I went with Full Moon's Back who was second, beaten a nose in stakes company last out.  Seemed obvious in an entry-level allowance.  Right to the front, in complete control and not being pressed or pressured.  I am a sure winner, but when heads turned for home and the rest of the field geared up for a strong finish 'Moon had nothing :( Faded badly to fourth.  My BET of the DAY was in the 10th where maiden special dropper Suzi'sprideofparis was a standout in a one mile turf test.  I'm sure you've noticed that two of my three picks so far were on the turf and it had not rained all day....but as the horses were leaving the paddock in the 9th and on-track host Ron Nicoletti reminded everyone about the late daily double he reminded everyone that the 10th and final was taken OFF the turf.  What the???? And of course my pick was scratched :(  Cost me a winning day as I lost a whole dollar while winning 50% of my picks. 

Only two weeks away from Opening Day at Gulfstream Park!  HORRAY!



November 13

A Good Day At Gulfstream Park West

A BETTER DAY At Aqueduct!

It was a sunny Thursday afternoon at Gulfstream Park West, a far cry from the weather in Ohio and Pennsylvania where we will be next week.  I had handicapped seven different tracks that were running today.  There were thirty-eight selections on my 3-page printout for today as I walked in.  After checking the scratches I ended up with thirty-three investments on the day, and as the title says - it was indeed a good day locally as I scored with three winners over the Miami Gardens track and had three big wins in New York.  The first play of the day came from Laurel in Maryland.  I liked Cross Mountain who was listed as the 6/5 program favorite, but was 2/1 when I placed my bet with five minutes to post time.  He was running for a barn that scored 21% off the shelf at a nice $2.12 ROI.  He'd buried this level of company the last time he ran and I looked for more of the same today.  As they went into the gate the flash on the board dropped him to 6/5, and after they'd left the post the last flash saw him plummet to a miniscule 1/5.  He sat sixth into the turn, swept by while five wide and drew off through deep stretch.  Though I didn't make much money, there's nothing better than starting your day at the races with a winner! 

Right back at Aqueduct where I liked 4/5 favorite Melville.  He stalked the leaders into the turn, glided up to the lead and was clear in mid-stretch.  But in the final two jumps a flying finish by a longshot cost him the win....second.  At Laurel I was a juicy 11/1 and was right there on the far turn before fading badly.  At Gulfstream I liked Shiloh on the turf.  But as the field hit the first turn he was carried far into the center of the course.  He made a threatening move entering the stretch, but had nothing left - fifth at 2/1.  Next on the list was the 3rd from Finger Lakes.  For some reason, unlike last week, GPW was not carrying the signal from the small, upstate New York track.  No worries, I placed the bet via my TwinSpires account on my phone and then watched the race through the wonder of technology on my phone.  Suave Tiger was the 7/5 favorite and he dueled with a longshot through the far turn, and then couldn't match strides....a distant second, but clearly the best of the rest.  The third at Gulfstream West was a claiming sprint and in my mind it came down to one of two runners - either 5-Van Citra or 4-Alaco Castle who were both first-off-the-claim for new barns today.  The former was going out for Peter Walder who is good with those kind, but my pick was Alaco Castle.  He was a runaway winner for $16K in June, earning a 94 Beyer.  So today's cheaper price provided a great opportunity to wake up for his new connections and for strong riding Paco Lopez.  Sure enough, as heads turned for home it was Alaco Castle and Van Citra battling for supremacy.  At the 16th pole 'Castle cleared off and was the winner! 

Note:  I shot this photo from the rail!

Best of all he had left the gate at 7/2 (as opposed to Van Citra's 6/5 odds) - so he paid a generous $9.00, and I got back well over $20!  At Churchill I was a well-beaten 6th behind my second choice, Red Maserati who was the 4/5 favorite.  But I'd never have bet him - he was 0-for-9 in 2014, 1-for-11 at Churchill, making his first start off a layoff with NO WORKS!  AND dropping in class?  Not for me at all, but he wired the field - go figure.  At Aqueduct I was leery of Island Candy, but he was Dave Liftin's "BEST" of the day.  This seemed a lot like last week when I didn't like his "BEST" but trusted him and lost.....same story today, dismal 8th at even money.  Bold Deed chased a longshot loose-on-the-lead winner at Finger Lakes - second.  In the fifth at Laurel I liked Zhivago despite the outside draw, post position 14.  He was prominent at the top of the lane and seemed to be spinning his wheels.  As the camera zoomed in on the leader and his two closest challengers Zhivago was no longer in the picture, but with 100 yards to go here came a blur of a white/gray roan closer - ZHIVAGO!  Sooooooo close, but only second best at 7/2, sigh.  At GP West Fireman's Carry was bet down to 4/5 favoritism off the class drop and with sharp human connections.  Jockey Orlando Bochachica went right to the front and was loose on an easy lead.  When the pressers accelerated to him as they spun out of the turn he had no response and was an even third.  Wow.  Closing out this streak of non-winners was Power at Churchill Downs who was the 5/2 second choice but was a non-threatening sixth.  FINALLY I had something to cheer about, in New York.  I had two "prime time" BEST BETS of the day and both came at Aqueduct.  This was the first of those.  The 6th race was a Maiden Special event going a one-turn mile.  I thought Genre looked much the best.  In his debut trainer Todd Pletcher had sent this guy out under the guidance of Johnny Velazquez and he was second, but nearly SIX lengths clear of the show runner.  He was the even money favorite as the gates sprung open.  As they hit the far turn JR made his move and he poked his head in front.  But the third choice on the rail was not about to give in, and the second choice now ranged up on the outside!  The three of them hit the top of the lane in lock step and dueled to the 1/8th pole.  Genre was under right-handed pressure, but was doggedly fighting the outside runner, while the rail runner had given way.  All the way to the final yards they dueled in a terrific stretch battle.....PHOTO FINISH! 

Yes, that's me on the inside!  WHOOOO HOOOOOO!  I had figured to win, but not by that narrow a margin!  Cashed out for over $40 :)  I thought I was sitting on a nice score when Crystal Grit went into the gate at GP West at a big 9/2.  I had tripled the bet on this runner from the Eddie Plesa stable with Paco Lopez up.  They are winning at nearly 40% together!  But it was all over before it started when the announcer called, "And they're off, and that was Crystal Grit getting checked sharply at the start, losing several lengths....."  Wow. A bit of a middle move gave me a brief hope, but he faded to 7th.  I was thinking I was going to make it up on the next when at Churchill Downs Wings of Prayer had dead aim on my second choice in mid-stretch at a big 5/1.  I had doubled the bet and I could see the $60 cash payoff on the horizon when he was squeezed at the furlong marker!  Not enough to check him, but it slowed his momentum just enough, so by the time he had his stride back he finished with a flurry, but was a head short, second...grrr.

Next on my list was the 7th from Aqueduct, a nine furlong turf allowance.  My pick was the second half of the entry, 1a-Party Now.  But I had noted in my analysis that if she scratched in favor of the first half of the entry I would defer to 7-Bohemian Dance, who was listed at 6/1 in the program.  So as I looked at the board the #1 was running, not the 1a.  So I headed to the window with my mind on Bohemian Dance.  In her last she was in stakes company in the Lady Baltimore, and had no where to run in mid-stretch, but still only losing by less than two lengths.  I expected jockey Javier Castellano to sit mid-pack, but as the field broke from the gate she went right to the front.  As they spun out of the clubhouse turn the opening fraction was a slow :25 and change and she was still clear on a loose rein through an opening half mile in a pokey :52 and change.  This is looking great!  The 3/4 fraction was absurdly slow in 1:18 and change.  Clear by two into the lane, here came the favorite and a longshot.  At the 16th pole it looked like they had the momentum, but Castellano still had something left.....surged to the wire....WINNNER! 

The two best parts to the story were that (a) Bohemian Dance had left the gate at 7/2 and (b) while I'd planned on a double investment on my initial pick I had not noted an investment amount should that one scratch....but I stuck with it!  So the $9.20 payoff resulted in a return of nearly $50!  Uptown Draw looked much the best and very deserving of his 4/5 odds in the 2nd at Hawthorne based on his class drop, but he showed nothing until a belated rally for third in mid-stretch.  At Finger Lakes my "best" of the day was in their featured 7th where trainer Jerimiah Englehart had an entry.  EITHER would have been worthy of short odds favoritism, but with two separate jockeys named it looked like you would get two for one here.  But, only the 1a-Rockford ran.  As I watched the race on my phone I smiled because the weather in upstate New York was apparently very much the same as that of Kim's parents in Erie, Pa as you could barely see Rockford pulling away at the top of the lane through all the blowing SNOW!  Didn't pay much, but it was still win number five for the day.  He'd no sooner crossed the wire when they were off at Laurel in the 7th, a five furlong turf sprint.  Golden Story was my choice.  He'd been facing tougher in Kentucky and New York and was coming off a near-miss second in New Jersey.  In the first two jumps he was clear by daylight.  He took them easily into the far turn and when they hit the top of the lane he opened up by seven widening lengths without ever being asked to run!  The easiest $10 of the day!  Missed in the opener at Del Mar with Brad Free's "best" of the day and then was no where to be found in Churchill's 7th. 

As I noted in the video recap (see below), it's funny how handicapping is an esoteric "art" as sometimes it's about the numbers and/or angles, and other times not.  Creative Art in Hawthorne's third was 5/0-4-0 locally and 21/5-10-2 for his career.  A CLEAR case of a runner with "seconditis."  But, as I noted in my analysis, ".....if he's ever getting over the hump it's today with speed on the inside to track....."  Even as I got ready to watch the race I wondered what had drawn me to him.  But he just "felt" like a winner here.  The co-favorite was dueling on the lead with another pace runner and Creative Art was positioned perfectly outside as they turned for home.  I was thinking, well, he either hangs again, or this is it.  And I had been right on the money!  He collared the leader and then burst by to the wire, winning by daylight!  At Gulfstream I tripled the bet on Bachata Dancer who looked to be the lone speed today despite the outside draw under Paco Lopez.  When a longshot went to the front and he pressed the pace through a :50 half mile while two clear of the rest of the field I knew I was home free.  Lopez shook up the reins as they swung out of the turn, and his head was briefly in front....but then he stopped badly, 8th :(  It was now time for the finale at the Big A in New York.  When I'd handicapped the field and had seen that Simple Love was clearly my choice to win I thought about how I ranked his chances compared to Genre from the 6th who was my "BEST" of the day in NY.  I initially marked him as a triple bet, but before I closed the pp's I changed that to another "prime time" play.  He was simply the best, period.  He had run second in back-to-back $50K nw3L events and was now dropping in for a $20K tag.  Even better, those two races had earned him Beyer figures that were better than any LIFETIME number earned by all his rivals with two exceptions.  And one of those exceptions had already been beaten soundly by Simple Love.  He stalked the leaders while hugging the rail into the far turn.  What to do, swing wide for the stretch, or wait for an opening?  The battling leaders floated three off the rail and Simple Love glided through and opened up by three quickly!  It looked to be all over but the shouting, until in deep stretch a 15/1 closer made it interesting.....but not so much that I ever really worried! 

PRIME TIME WINNER #2!  The 4th at Hawthorne saw me backing former student, now top jockey Rosemary Homeister, Jr. on Ratatat over the Illinois turf course.  She looked to get a nice pressing trip and she was right there turning for home at 4/1.  My double investment was going to net me $50 or more and I was thinking about messaging Rose how nicely she'd positioned Ratatat when the horse simply stopped running - faded to fifth :(  The ninth at Gulfstream Park West was a claiming event going a two-turn mile.  Alguna had raced for this claiming tag twice in her last four starts and DOMINATED both of them.  She was 7/2 in the program and I was betting the minimum.  In the early betting she was a prohibitive 3/5 and I briefly considered upping the bet, but considered how I'd lost earlier today with a couple of short priced favorites that I'd been happy afterwards that I had only backed them with the minimum.  Alguna was outrun, along with the rest of the field to the far turn.  But the two dueling front-runners were both double digits on the tote board.  But when the fractions were posted at :25 and :50 and she was still at least six off the leaders I was a bit concerned.  The Paco Lopez asked her to run and by the time they'd spun out of the turn and headed home he had dead aim on the surviving front-runner.  By the furlong marker she was in front and Lopez had her under wraps to the wire.  Win #9 on the day :) 

The 5th at Hawthorne was next, a claiming sprint and I was puzzled by the fact that Rum Therapy was listed at 5/1 in the program.  What was curious to me was that he'd rattled off two straight wins, the last coming HERE at this distance, at this track against many of these!  And even more surprising, that last win had come at odds of 2/5!  Was he being dismissed because he comes from way, W-A-Y back?  To me, that hadn't been a problem before, so I bet him.  Sure enough when the field hit the far turn he was barely in the television picture!  In fact he was just starting his run on the turn as the leaders were heading for home.  But you could see, he was starting to pick off horses.  Had he started too late?  I thought so until about the 16th pole when every stride the field ran, he was running three strides and those were GIANT strides let me tell you.  Blew right on by for my 10th win.  He'd been bet down to 5/2, but still, considering he was 2/5 last time?  I'll take the $7.40 payoff and cash for nearly $20.  My last win of the day was the most enjoyable.  It was the finale at Gulfstream - a five furlong claiming sprint over the turf.  As I noted in my analysis, most of these kind of races are won wire to wire.  Even when it appears there will be a pace battle up front, typically one is the speed of the speed and/or clears early and then it's all over.  So, as I wrote, it's always a bit of a risk to go with a presser or a closer.  But this time I did as I put Mornin Brew on top.  He had never raced this short, he'd built his resume by going two turns, including a 7 1/2 furlong third place finish for this price tag last time out.  I thought he'd sit close, but clearly off the pace.  But what drew me to him was not the past performances but the trainer stats.  Kirk Ziadie was listed as a 23% winner of turf sprints, a 43% winner with runners second off the shelf, and an even bigger 45% with jockey Edgar Zayas.  And while his current figures were low for this meet, I've watched this guy over the last year rattle win after win, and especially with Zayas in control.  I doubled the bet.  Sure enough, as the field hit the far turn there were two speedsters and Mornin Brew was tracking on the rail.  Zayas swung three wide for a clear run to the wire.  Meanwhile a closer was coming on the outside and another on the inside.  But Zayas had them measured.....collared the leaders less than a furlong out and cleared late to win by daylight!  Now you'd figure that every handicapper could see the same stats I was looking at, and especially on a Thursday when there was NOT a big crowd of casual fans to inflate the price, Mornin Brew had to be one of the favorites, right......

UNBELIEVABLE!  I collected over $60 and guaranteed a winning day!  By the time the last race was in the books I'd finished with eleven wins from thirty-three picks (a nice full day of racing!), while I was second seven times.....would have had a BIG profitable day if a couple of those had come home :)  But, it was a great day at the races, especially under the sunny skies and upper-70 degree weather.

 

November 13 Video Recap

November 6

Today was one of those days I always "dreamed" of when I was working.......it was a sunny Thursday afternoon, and when I was working I would have said, "....if I were retired, I'd be at the races today!"

When I was on the porch Wednesday morning and didn't have any real plans for the day, it struck me.....this is exactly the kind of day that I'd thought about when I was working.  I can spend today handicapping, because I can.  Not because tomorrow is a big stakes day, it's a racing day.  And tomorrow I can spend the day at the races betting maiden races and claiming races in the beautiful South Florida weather because they pay the same on Thursday afternoon as they do on Breeders' Cup weekend!  And so I handicapped the Gulfstream West card, Aqueduct, Churchill, and Hawthorne.  I had planned to handicap Finger Lakes, but for some reason the DRF only had the cards for the 5th and the 7th.  But on Thursday morning there they were, so I added races from Finger Lakes. 

When I arrived at Gulfstream West I immediately walked out to the rail, snapped a "selfie" and posted it on Facebook as a reminder to all my working friends that one of the greatest perks of retirement is to be in control of what you do and that you can do it just because you can!  And so the day began.  It made the day just a little sweeter when I looked at the racing simulcast signals - it was obviously cold and rainy!  And here I am in the upper 70's under sunny skies.  Could it get any better?  The first pick on the sheet was from Finger Lakes where I liked the obvious favorite, Goodnewsisnonews who was first off the claim for Linda Rice.  He'd been facing much better at Monmouth, Saratoga, and Belmont, so the "drop" into Finger Lakes non-winners of two-lifetime should make him an easy winner.  He rallied up the rail, forged a short lead in mid-stretch but was outfinished on the outside to be a close third.  The opener over the sloppy Aqueduct main track was a non-winners of three-lifetime and Seven Stars looked very obvious.  She was third off a long layoff today, but more importantly first off the claim for top claiming trainer David Jacobson.  The rivals she faced today struggled to reach the 60 plateau on the Beyer speed figure scale, but she had hit this in five of her last seven starts.  And then there's the obvious.....Seven Stars was breaking from post SEVEN!  Duh.  She rated off the pace through the turn and moved four-wide into the lane.  She collared the leader at the 16th pole and edged clear to the wire.  I had doubled the bet so I cashed for over $20! 

Next up was the opener at GP West.  Capriccio Blue was bet down to even money and he alternated taking the lead and being passed by my second choice, Hot Coffee.  But when they turned for home he spurted away from that one to be two clear.  But 'Coffee was not done and nailed him in the final strides, second.  The opener at Churchill Downs I liked Cadron who was dismissed at 7/2.  I thought he was the clear speed of the race and as heads turned for home and he was coasting two clear on an easy lead I was calculating how much money I would collect.  But then here came a late runner....WHERE'S THE WIRE!!!!! Nailed in the final strides!  In the second at Aqueduct I was initially all against Oohlala.  She had more starts than any of her maiden rivals and was listed at 4/5 in the program...why?  But then I saw Dave Liftin's column.  Not only did he pick her, she was his "best" of the day!  Really?  Dave is rarely wrong with his "best bets" so I added him.  One of those rare days when I should have gone with my thoughts.  I had Redbeard listed as the third choice and she won at 6/1 while Oohlala struggled to get third at 6/5.  I lost all chance in Gulfstream's 2nd when Lucky Rascal broke slowly in a five furlong turf sprint - 6th.  I had to wait until the next at Gulfstream before my next pick went into the gate, but this was to be my first winner locally.  Whiskey Tap stalked the pace three wide, moved to the lead then fought determinedly through the lane to hold the lead.  Close, but a WINNER!  Cashed for a measly $10, but that's better than tossing the ticket on the ground :) 

Note:  My Own Photo From The Rail!

At Churchill Downs Heir To Dare looked much the best on several angles.  Five of the seven runners she faced here wanted the lead and she was a stalker, drawn on the outside.  She was dropping out of a series of $20K races to today's $10K spot and trainer Brad Cox was a 30% winner with jockey Shawn Bridgmohan.  She stalked the lead for sure, but was four wide into the lead, losing valuable ground while the winner enjoyed a rail-skimming trip.  Second at 4/5.  Back to Finger Lakes where Pleaseandthankyou was the local handicapper's "BET of the Day."  He outclassed her rivals by multiple lengths even on an average dy.  The last time he'd run in conditioned company she romped by over fifteen lengths.  Much the same today as he broke right to the front despite the outside draw and was L-O-N-G gone under wraps.  Sadly he left the gate as the prohibitive 1/4.  Still, my triple investment led to a collection of over $20. 

Less than a half an hour later it was time for my first "BET of the Day!"  I had one each at Aqueduct, Churchill, and Hawthorne.  This one was the fifth in New York. I had seen House Rules run at Gulfstream this past winter and she was a good second in TWO graded stakes.  The first in the Grade 2 Davona Dale behind the very talented, but ill-fated Onlyforyou; then a very close second in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks behind In Tune, who was my "best" on Derby Day.  Today she was facing allowance rivals and looked much the best to me.  She was the even money favorite as she ranged up three wide into the lane to take over and draw off.  WHOOO HOOO! 

I cashed for $40!  That's two wins in a row and I had dead aim on a third a half an hour later in the opener at Hawthorne.  This was a maiden claiming event going 3/4 of a mile and it looked to me like Sandro was clearly the one to beat.  There were four first-time starters in the field and if none of them wanted the lead then Sandro would be loose on an easy lead.  But, he'd shown the ability to run from a pressing/stalking spot and that gave him a huge edge on (a) the firsters who would falter due to lack of experience and (b) the deep closers - especially Bahnke who was my second choice - because he'd have first run to the wire.  The race played out exactly, well almost exactly, as I'd seen it.  Two FTS runners dueled through the turn with Sandro right behind them.  He made his move and was first one clear to the wire, but Bahnke had made his move early and was now breathing down the neck of my choice.  He was gaining with every stride.....PHOTO FINISH!  I thought, both when I saw it live and in the slow-motion replay that I'd won, but the exact placement of the wire was unclear to me.  Fortunately I was right, it was my third winner in a  row.  I'd doubled the bet so I cashed for nearly $20. 

Three of the next four races saw me run second :(  At Gulfstream, Heiko was loose on the lead for top rider Edgar Zayas.  Yet, despite absolutely no pressure he ran the first half mile in a testing :46 and change.  Could not resist one closer, caught in deep stretch to be second.  Midnight Notes was my pick over the Churchill turf and she was a perfect 2-for-2 in Louisville.  The difference she made her move at least four wide off the turn while the winner enjoyed a soft trip up the rail.....too late, best-of-the-rest second.  And at Aqueduct I thought for sure I would win when Celebrated Talent went right to the front and was long gone, until the final strides; second at 7/2.  Back to Finger Lakes for their finale and I liked Special Action.  He would be a daylight winner with any of his FIVE 2013 efforts, but today he was being PLUNGED in claiming level and his pp's didn't show a single sprint race, causing all kinds of red flags.  Generally speaking I'm pretty good at looking in-between the lines and seeing who's being thrown to the wolves as a "fire sale" and who's dropping for the win;  that was the way I saw this one.  He was sent off as a prohibitive 2/5 and did not get the smoothest of trips as he was pinned down inside on the deep, sloppy going.  Still, he moved through easily - it appeared - through the turn and burst clear into the stretch.  But the second choice on the board was driving towards him and it was very close.........WINNER! 

What's ironic is that my selections at Finger Lakes (where Jeff and I wrapped up his senior trip, "Track Tour 2000," was that I went two-for-three at this small racing venue and I nearly didn't play here today!  I missed on the next four without really being close as they passed mid-stretch before it was time for my final live race.  This was the 9th at Churchill Downs, an allowance-optional claimer with conditions for non-winners of two allowance races, or a $62.5K claiming tag.  Right away Saffron Hall JUMPED off the page to me.  Not only was she 3-for-4 at this demanding nine furlong distance, but she was on a three-race win streak having taken down three straight allowance contests on the turf.  Best yet, the last one was an allowance race with non-winners of THREE conditions!  So today she'd run for the tag and actually drop in class.  She was my "BET of the DAY!" in Louisville!  But then something happened that makes - to me - racing so intriguing.  As oh-so-obvious as she seemed to me, somehow she was hovering around 3/1 at post time!  The race played out just as I'd seen it as she stalked the pace, moved to challenge at the top of the stretch and then blew by at the 16th pole. 

I could not believe my good fortune when the tote board flashed $6.80 in the win slot!  My "prime time" investment meant a return of nearly $70!  I headed home knowing that if I won just one of the last three not only would I finish well over 30% wins for the day, but in all likelihood in the black for the day.  And that would be amazing considering that besides Saffron Hall all of my winners had been even-money or less.  The fifth at Hawthorne was a claiming event on the turf and Saratoga Boot looked best on the drop.  The crowd agreed and sent her off as the 6/5 favorite.  She pressed the pace, moved to the lead into the lane.......and faded to fifth.  That's not good.  Then the finale at Gulfstream I had Todd Pletcher's Austa in a maiden claiming event.  He's nearly 30% with maiden claimers and she was making what looked like a winning move on the far turn when she had to take up sharply.  If you watched it it was the check that was so severe, but it was that all her momentum was put on hold for a count.  She re-rallied nicely, but now it was too late to catch the leaders and she was 4th while wide into the stretch.  So, it all came down to the finale at Hawthorne.  Gentleman's Code was plunging from consistently running well, and often favored, at the $20K level into today's $4K level.  But again, I thought none of his races were bad efforts, and he needed confidence booster.  As they loaded into the gate he was hovering between a remarkable 2/1 and 9/5 on the tote board! With Gentleman's Code being my "BEST" of the day in Illinois, the $56-$60 return would indeed make me a profitable winner on the day.  As the last horse approached the gate an 11/1 runner tossed his rider.  Sigh....an obvious late scratch, but what that meant was that all of that money in the win pool was now eliminated and my odds dropped to 4/5.  I was lucky that they floated back up to even money by post time.  Just as I thought, once they turned for home the race was over as Gentleman's Code galloped away by daylight in a romp! 

The return netted me over $40, and it cut the final deficit to single digits, but not quite enough to be able to proclaim the day a profitable one.  Still, for me it had been a GREAT day.  Spent the day at the track, in beautiful South Florida weather - never got above 80 degrees - and I was proven right on many of my selections!