Thanksgiving Weekend

A GREAT End To The Fall Season!

On To Gulfstream!

 

Originally I had selections for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and was looking at handicapping for Saturday.  But a B-I-G weather system pushed through the upper Midwest and Northeast causing Penn National to postpone the entire Wednesday stakes-laden card to Saturday.  The result of this was that I ended up with no selections on Wednesday, and didn't have to handicap any races for Saturday.  We had traveled to Pennsylvania on Monday afternoon where it was below thirty degrees. 

We picked up Brad and Lauren on Wednesday afternoon and they were delighted with the cold weather and dusting of snow, but when we drove out to Kim's twin sister Karrie's house for Thanksgiving they had picked up multiple inches of snow, and it continued to snow all day Thursday and Friday, eventually accumulating close to eight inches!  It made for the "Perfect Day" for everyone as nearly the entire Woods clan was on hand for the festivities. 

Thursday November 27

But, on to the racing!  Last week had been the opening of the Fair Grounds and today was the traditional Thanksgiving Handicap, so I handicapped the entire card.  In the opener, it was a maiden claiming event and I liked What's In A Name who was an obvious favorite.  She was third in her debut, then second in her next start when over six clear of the show horse.  And that was at Churchill where the depth of the field was probably much stiffer than what she would face today.  She was sent off as the 3/2 favorite and sat well back in the field.  She moved four wide on the turn picking off fillies, split runners entering the stretch and wore down the leaders late to win going away.  WIN number one!  The next two selections I liked at a price....Penny's Deputy was 6/1 in a turf sprint and led into the far turn and as they turned for home, but weakened badly to finish 6th; and then Dead On sat well back going two turns over the turf course - which is where you usually want to be over the inner course in New Orleans.  But his rally was too little, too late.  Third.  The featured Thanksgiving Handicap was up next.  The analysis of the race went through what you thought of likely favorite Delauney.  This guy had been a beast two years ago, arguably the best sprinter in the country in the spring/summer of 2012.  But he'd since seemed to regress.  He had looked to be returning to his old self last spring and I had him in the Grade 3 Aristides when he showed his old form.  But today he was coming off of two losses.  It appeared to me that both had been quality efforts to me however.  After the Aristides win he was a good second in the Iowa Sprint behind Work All Week who went on to win the Breeders' Cup Sprint and is STILL unbeaten in dirt sprints.  Then he was a solid third behind Mico Marguerita.  In addition to that he'd been working very well AND was 5/4-1-0 over the FG strip.  If I'd been at the races or watching live I WOULD have upped the bet because the main competition, Heitai, scratched out of the race.  Delauney was indeed back on top of his game as he ran away from the field! 

My last two picks of the day did not score.  In the Grade 2 Falls City Handicap I went with 4/5 favorite Don't Tell Sophia.  She had won the Grade 1 Spinster two back and was a closing second to super filly Untapable in the Breeders' Cup Distaff last out.  She was 4/3-1-0 over the Louisville strip and seemed to outclass these.  She came with her patented late run, but was just a little too far back, second.  Then in the Fair Grounds finale I was a non-threatening 6th at 6/1 in a maiden claimer where Hourly Appointment dueled to the turn before stopping.  On Friday I didn't handicap any races, but I thought Todd Pletcher's Florida Derby hero, Constitution looked solid in his second start since that sensational win.  And he looked to be the lone speed in Churchill's Grade 1 Clark Handicap.  He was in front, but pressured by the Bob Baffert favorite Hoppertunity all the way to mid-stretch.  He weakened late to be a good third. 

Saturday November 29

My Mom's 80th Birthday celebration continued today.  We had driven back to Ohio on Friday afternoon and today we spent the day at my sister Laurie's home.  My brother and his family joined us there to celebrate!  There were several stakes races today, but between all the festivities of Thanksgiving, and then traveling most of the day Friday I didn't have time to handicap, and I was ok with that since I had my picks at Penn National already selected.  The first race I had a runner in was The Swatara Stakes.  Stormin Monarcho was my selection, and I did not go higher than the minimum on him though he looked best....why?  Over his last six races he had alternated triple digit efforts with excellent races with sub-par efforts and today would appear to be the "down" race in the cycle.  But upon closer examination you could make a legitimate case that those "off" races came against far superior runners.  I saw him sitting just off the speed and being best through the lane.  The race unfolded exactly that was as he tracked four front-runners.  He moved four wide on the turn and caught the survivor; dueled through the lane and edged clear to WIN! 

My next pick was in the Fabulous Strike Handicap.  The winning machine Ben's Cat had won the first two editions and NORMALLY he'd be an overwhelming choice here.  But today he was coming into the race off a three-race losing streak, the first time that had happened in many years.  But he was my choice because all of those efforts could be dismissed - in my opinion - and today Ben's Cat would probably offer real value for the first time since I've been following him.  Jeff texted me if I had any picks for today and this was the one I gave him (and in turn he shared with several of his friends).  Today the "real" Ben's Cat was on the track.  He settled nicely just behind the dueling leaders, then glided up effortlessly to engage them on the turn, emerged five wide turning for home and just ran away from the field in a sensational effort!  And the best part, he went off at a VERY generous 3/1! 

The $8.40 price was sensational....made the day, for not only me but for Jeff and his buddies.  And yes, I appear to be a superstar handicapper to them all :)  On a side note I was excited because  I won the first two stakes of the fall season with Geeky Gorgeous in the Eleven North Handicap and Bradester in the Grade 3 Ack Ack and then the last two stakes of the fall season with Stormin Monarcho in the Swatara and Ben' Cat in the Fabulous Strike!  But my "best" of the day/night at Penn National was Joe Franklin in an nw2L allowance.  He had ran sharply in his debut setting a fast pace and wasn't caught until deep stretch by a runner who came right back to win again, while he was SIX clear of the show runner. Then in his second start, last out, he went wire-to-wire over Keeneland maidens.  No question that his foes at Penn National would not be the same quality as he faced at the prestigious Keeneland track.  As I wrote in my analysis, it's always a risk to back short priced runners coming off their maiden win, but both of those races had earned figures (70 and 79) that were better than any race any of today's opponents had run.  Right to the front and LONG GONE!  I was watching the replays on my laptop and Brad's wife Lauren asked me how I'd done for today.  I told her initially that I'd won three of four before I realized I had not had four selections...only three!  So for today I was a perfect 3-for-3 and made a nice profit of over $45!  A great way to finish off the fall.  And now finally, Saturday is OPENING DAY at Gulfstream Park's Championship meet!

November 22

Saturday November 22

Happy Birthday Mom - #80!

We flew to Ohio and it was 23 degrees when we landed!  The next morning, I had told Kim it didn't matter how cold it was I WOULD be going to get coffee no matter the temp.  It was 27 degrees, but when I looked at the rental car it looked like a sheet of ice.  Still, I thought it would defrost off....then I put one foot on the driveway which LOOKED wet, but it was solid ice and I nearly went head over heels.  No coffee for us, at least not now!  But my wonderful sister ventured out around 9:30 am and by the time she got here it was nearly all thawed out and we got our cup of joe!  Mom opened gifts, we watched college football, and then went out to dinner with my brother Kenny and his wife, my sister Laurie and her husband, with my niece Khloe at the Olive Garden.  Meanwhile I had been watching the races all day long from several different tracks.  Here's how the day played out. 

The first three races (from Aqueduct, Delta Downs, and Gulfstream) were all off-the-board finishes for me.  But in the fourth race on my sheet I had backed Readybytheline in the New York Stallion Stakes for colts.  I did NOT like the favorite and I thought this guy had a chance to wire the field.  What caught my eye, and was confirmed after I read Dave Liftin's analysis, was that this guy had absolutely freaked first off the claim for trainer Michelle Nevin earlier in the year.  His 104 BSF figure that day, going a one-turn mile would bury this field, going a similar seven furlongs today.  Sure enough, he burst from the gate and was L-O-N-G gone!  And check out the nice price! 

Whooooo Hoooo!  That race was no longer official when they were in off in the second of the many stakes races at Delta Downs, this one being The Louisiana Jewel.  Wind Chill Factor was "dropping" out of far stiffer company from a Churchill allowance test - the winner was running in the co-featured Princess today.  She was sent off as the 6/5 favorite.  She was near the back as they approached the far turn and I was a bit concerned.  But then she circled the field and drew off as EASILY the best.  Two in a row! 

Less than five minutes later and we were out of the gate in Chicago for the co-featured Sun Power Stakes at Hawthorne.  I had read in the Daily Racing Form that Dom The Bomb would most certainly be a short priced favorite, but also a very likely winner.  When I got the Brisnet pp's he was first on the "Prime Power" index by double digits.  A multiple point advantage here is a near certain winner, so not only did his speed figures point him out, but this number was a good as it gets.  Sure enough, he pressed the pace to the turn, took over as he pleased and merely galloped out past the wire winning by about a pole!  THREE IN A ROW!  This is the kind of day I was hoping for :) 

Then I went through six straight losses with FIVE of them not even hitting the board!  Unfortunately five of them were added money investments as well.  The two worth mentioning were first, the Grade 3 My Charmer Handicap at Gulfstream Park West.  I was initially drawn to this race because I saw that Daring Kathy was running and the article in the DRF talked about her being the LONE Speed.  But when I looked over the pp's all of those had come against lesser and going shorter than today's 9 furlongs.  I settled on local "Horse for the Course" Angelica Zapata who had run six times here with five wins and a second by a half length.  Her connections talked about wanting to get a graded win on her resume and that not once, but twice this year she "should" have earned gotten one.  Her stalking presence, I thought would put her in perfect position.  She was, but when the real running started, Daring Kathy had slowed the pace to a crawl and wired the field.....meanwhile Angelica Zapata had no response into the lane - fifth.  The other came on the turf at the Fair Grounds.  I liked Red Strike enough to make him a minimum selection.  His speed figures were multiple lengths better than all of his rivals and he had top turf rider James Graham.  But in the betting action before the race he was being hammered to 1/9 and then 1/5 with ten minutes to post.  Well, the reason I didn't initially make him an added money bet was because he had built a 7/0-1-1 record locally.  With that kind of action, the speed figure advantage, and the fact that Graham was aboard for top conditioner Tom Proctor I decided to triple the bet.  He stalked the leaders to the far turn, moved effortlessly to the lead into the lane and quickly opened up two.  Still, I had the thought in my head that the Fair Grounds stretch is ultra-long and often runners are caught when seemingly home free.  But at 3/5 he seemed solid.....no, nailed in the final fifty yards, second.  So wish I'd stayed with the initial bet.  Sigh.......It was at about this time we headed out for the big birthday dinner.  Good times!  When we got back I opened up the computer to watch the final seven races on my sheet.  First up was the $250K Delta Downs Mile.  Last winter I had cashed two big tickets on the champion of this race, Grand Contender in stakes races at Lone Star Park.  But, he is a front runner and there was other speed in the race.  While he looked like THE speed, I was drawn to one of my favorite horses, Sunbean.  For many years in ANY state-bred Louisiana stakes race and in some open stakes (in Louisiana) I was nearly always a winner with the superstar, Star Guitar.  When he retired about two years ago his owner and trainer had Sunbean and he's become nearly as effective.  He's built a career record of 11-of-17 and five of seven this year.  He's a stalker and looked sharp to me.  He was a generous 3/1 in the program.  He sat just off the leaders, and when asked on the turn he accelerated in the "race of the day" as he ran away easily.

Unfortunately for me the crowd saw what I saw and bet him down to 4/5 favoritism.  After Treaty Oak was way too far back and rallied belatedly for third over the FG turf I thought I had a sure winner at Delta Downs when 4/5 Bridaria led into the stretch, then rebroke to open up by daylight, only to be caught nearing the wire, second.  But I cashed on my second stakes at Hawthorne next when Timeaday proved easily best.  She was the ONLY multiple winner in the field and last time out she pounded OPEN company.  That gave her a huge advantage over her rivals in today's Showtime Deb Stakes. 

Cashed for over $20 :)  I was 17/1 with a price play at the Fair Grounds, but he ran to his odds, 9th.  Appealing Cat was steadied and checked on the far turn when trying to rally up the rail in Del Mar's featured Grade 3 Red Carpet, 6th.  But in the final race it was my "BET of the DAY."  Lucy's Bob Boy had won the A Huevo Stakes last year, and loved the Charles Town course.  He was an amazing 20-for-27 through his career, but best of all he was the LONE SPEED in a short field of five.  Right to the front and easily wire-to-wire, just galloping through the final 16th! 

So for the day I was a solid 6-for-19, 32%.  Well done.  But with only one good price and that stretch of six misses in the middle of the day I did not make any money.  One more big weekend before the start of the Championship meet at Gulfstream on December 6!

November 16 - 20

Nov. 16:  Another Talented Pletcher Colt

Over the weekend I had two runners that I really liked.  The first was a class play in the Grade 3 Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct going a mile and a half.  Multiple Grade 1 winner Big Blue Kitten.  The only problem was that he is a deep closer and subject to the pace scenario.  But as the DRF Stakes Analysis video analysts both pointed out, he was simply the best horse.  Well, the pace was slow and he didn't have the smoothest of trips, second.

But the play of the weekend came in an allowance spot on Sunday. I had read that top North American trainer Todd Pletcher was ready to unleash another colt into stakes company, but decided to go the conservative route and send him into an allowance spot.  The normally conservative Pletcher was quoted before the race that he had expected Liam's Map to score handily at first asking at Saratoga, but he'd disappointed.  But on September 26 he drew off with authority going a one-turn mile at Belmont earning a big 98 Beyer.  Liam's Map was considered a leading candidate for the Grade 3 Discovery Handicap, but was placed here in an entry-level allowance with stakes races on his radar for later.  So, expectations were high.  He looked like he laid over the field and he was ultra-impressive.  I am VERY excited to see him run this winter at Gulfstream!

 

 

 

Nov. 19:  Quick Start, But....

I decided to make Wednesday my "track day" this week to get around my various medical appointments.  I debated about actually going out to GPW again, but not only was it rainy and chilly, but I was not feeling all that good.  Didn't help matters that when I checked for scratches the weather was bad all over the country, most especially in Louisville: 

So I played online.  I scored in the opener at Gulfstream when Sir Edgar went wire to wire.  He had to duel from the top of the lane to the 16th pole, but he edged clear late.  I ran off three consecutive wins in New York to run my early record to 4-for-8 when Rock N Spur rallied from WAY back to win Finger Lakes' 3rd and then Dorian Will won the fourth at a big $8.70.  The good news was I had doubled the bet and cashed for over $40; the bad news was I had planned to triple the bet but after watching the races I was leery that he was NOT the favorite when it seemed so obvious to me.  Should have trusted my own handicapping - cost me over $20.  Then I scored with the odds-on favorite in the 4th at Aqueduct.  I missed on three picks, then scored back-to-back again.  Troubleinrivercity was pounded from 6/5 to 1/5 in the final minute of wagering in the 6th at Finger Lakes; then I scored with my BEST of the Day when Walk Away Slow was much the best at Gulfstream Park West. 

So at this point in the day, 2:30 pm, I was 6-for-14 and having a wonderful day of racing and handicapping.  Over the next hour and a half I missed on nine straight including not one, not two, not three, but FOUR second place finishes.  Those cost me possible winnings of over $100 and I was doomed for the day.  I added to the streak when the final four runners finished 3rd, 7th, 2nd (after leading all the way into the stretch), and 9th (after leading into the far turn at 7/1).  It was not the way I'd seen the day going.

Nov. 20:  Two-For-Four

Wednesday turned out to be a good day overall as Kim and I went to the Broward Center for the Performing Arts and saw "The Phantom of the Opera."  It was fabulous!

So Thursday I was home from my two medical appointments before 9:30 am and with little on my plate, other than packing for our upcoming trip to Ohio and Pennsylvania, I decided to handicap the GPW card and see if I could find some solid plays.  I did.  In the second I thought Kiton looked much the best; third off the claim for Jorge Navarro and with a 38% winning rider....he was. 

 

 Right back in the third where I did NOT like the obvious favorite.  Instead I went with Takethedoeandrun to win this Maiden Special turf sprint.  Paco Lopez and trainer Eddie Plesa are regular winners together, and I'd cashed MANY times during my Monmouth Park Project this summer with them.  He was a handy winner - while the favorite was off the board!  Double right for my analysis!  The $8.40 payoff led to over $20. 

I had two more picks.  In the 4th El Bendinat looked even stronger than the first two and I was certain I was about to go 3-for-3 as he ranged up along the loose-on-the-lead front runner entering the turn.  But that one had plenty left and I was second at 4/5.  In the 9th we were sprinting on the turf again and I went with Full Moon's Back who was second, beaten a nose in stakes company last out.  Seemed obvious in an entry-level allowance.  Right to the front, in complete control and not being pressed or pressured.  I am a sure winner, but when heads turned for home and the rest of the field geared up for a strong finish 'Moon had nothing :( Faded badly to fourth.  My BET of the DAY was in the 10th where maiden special dropper Suzi'sprideofparis was a standout in a one mile turf test.  I'm sure you've noticed that two of my three picks so far were on the turf and it had not rained all day....but as the horses were leaving the paddock in the 9th and on-track host Ron Nicoletti reminded everyone about the late daily double he reminded everyone that the 10th and final was taken OFF the turf.  What the???? And of course my pick was scratched :(  Cost me a winning day as I lost a whole dollar while winning 50% of my picks. 

Only two weeks away from Opening Day at Gulfstream Park!  HORRAY!



November 13

A Good Day At Gulfstream Park West

A BETTER DAY At Aqueduct!

It was a sunny Thursday afternoon at Gulfstream Park West, a far cry from the weather in Ohio and Pennsylvania where we will be next week.  I had handicapped seven different tracks that were running today.  There were thirty-eight selections on my 3-page printout for today as I walked in.  After checking the scratches I ended up with thirty-three investments on the day, and as the title says - it was indeed a good day locally as I scored with three winners over the Miami Gardens track and had three big wins in New York.  The first play of the day came from Laurel in Maryland.  I liked Cross Mountain who was listed as the 6/5 program favorite, but was 2/1 when I placed my bet with five minutes to post time.  He was running for a barn that scored 21% off the shelf at a nice $2.12 ROI.  He'd buried this level of company the last time he ran and I looked for more of the same today.  As they went into the gate the flash on the board dropped him to 6/5, and after they'd left the post the last flash saw him plummet to a miniscule 1/5.  He sat sixth into the turn, swept by while five wide and drew off through deep stretch.  Though I didn't make much money, there's nothing better than starting your day at the races with a winner! 

Right back at Aqueduct where I liked 4/5 favorite Melville.  He stalked the leaders into the turn, glided up to the lead and was clear in mid-stretch.  But in the final two jumps a flying finish by a longshot cost him the win....second.  At Laurel I was a juicy 11/1 and was right there on the far turn before fading badly.  At Gulfstream I liked Shiloh on the turf.  But as the field hit the first turn he was carried far into the center of the course.  He made a threatening move entering the stretch, but had nothing left - fifth at 2/1.  Next on the list was the 3rd from Finger Lakes.  For some reason, unlike last week, GPW was not carrying the signal from the small, upstate New York track.  No worries, I placed the bet via my TwinSpires account on my phone and then watched the race through the wonder of technology on my phone.  Suave Tiger was the 7/5 favorite and he dueled with a longshot through the far turn, and then couldn't match strides....a distant second, but clearly the best of the rest.  The third at Gulfstream West was a claiming sprint and in my mind it came down to one of two runners - either 5-Van Citra or 4-Alaco Castle who were both first-off-the-claim for new barns today.  The former was going out for Peter Walder who is good with those kind, but my pick was Alaco Castle.  He was a runaway winner for $16K in June, earning a 94 Beyer.  So today's cheaper price provided a great opportunity to wake up for his new connections and for strong riding Paco Lopez.  Sure enough, as heads turned for home it was Alaco Castle and Van Citra battling for supremacy.  At the 16th pole 'Castle cleared off and was the winner! 

Note:  I shot this photo from the rail!

Best of all he had left the gate at 7/2 (as opposed to Van Citra's 6/5 odds) - so he paid a generous $9.00, and I got back well over $20!  At Churchill I was a well-beaten 6th behind my second choice, Red Maserati who was the 4/5 favorite.  But I'd never have bet him - he was 0-for-9 in 2014, 1-for-11 at Churchill, making his first start off a layoff with NO WORKS!  AND dropping in class?  Not for me at all, but he wired the field - go figure.  At Aqueduct I was leery of Island Candy, but he was Dave Liftin's "BEST" of the day.  This seemed a lot like last week when I didn't like his "BEST" but trusted him and lost.....same story today, dismal 8th at even money.  Bold Deed chased a longshot loose-on-the-lead winner at Finger Lakes - second.  In the fifth at Laurel I liked Zhivago despite the outside draw, post position 14.  He was prominent at the top of the lane and seemed to be spinning his wheels.  As the camera zoomed in on the leader and his two closest challengers Zhivago was no longer in the picture, but with 100 yards to go here came a blur of a white/gray roan closer - ZHIVAGO!  Sooooooo close, but only second best at 7/2, sigh.  At GP West Fireman's Carry was bet down to 4/5 favoritism off the class drop and with sharp human connections.  Jockey Orlando Bochachica went right to the front and was loose on an easy lead.  When the pressers accelerated to him as they spun out of the turn he had no response and was an even third.  Wow.  Closing out this streak of non-winners was Power at Churchill Downs who was the 5/2 second choice but was a non-threatening sixth.  FINALLY I had something to cheer about, in New York.  I had two "prime time" BEST BETS of the day and both came at Aqueduct.  This was the first of those.  The 6th race was a Maiden Special event going a one-turn mile.  I thought Genre looked much the best.  In his debut trainer Todd Pletcher had sent this guy out under the guidance of Johnny Velazquez and he was second, but nearly SIX lengths clear of the show runner.  He was the even money favorite as the gates sprung open.  As they hit the far turn JR made his move and he poked his head in front.  But the third choice on the rail was not about to give in, and the second choice now ranged up on the outside!  The three of them hit the top of the lane in lock step and dueled to the 1/8th pole.  Genre was under right-handed pressure, but was doggedly fighting the outside runner, while the rail runner had given way.  All the way to the final yards they dueled in a terrific stretch battle.....PHOTO FINISH! 

Yes, that's me on the inside!  WHOOOO HOOOOOO!  I had figured to win, but not by that narrow a margin!  Cashed out for over $40 :)  I thought I was sitting on a nice score when Crystal Grit went into the gate at GP West at a big 9/2.  I had tripled the bet on this runner from the Eddie Plesa stable with Paco Lopez up.  They are winning at nearly 40% together!  But it was all over before it started when the announcer called, "And they're off, and that was Crystal Grit getting checked sharply at the start, losing several lengths....."  Wow. A bit of a middle move gave me a brief hope, but he faded to 7th.  I was thinking I was going to make it up on the next when at Churchill Downs Wings of Prayer had dead aim on my second choice in mid-stretch at a big 5/1.  I had doubled the bet and I could see the $60 cash payoff on the horizon when he was squeezed at the furlong marker!  Not enough to check him, but it slowed his momentum just enough, so by the time he had his stride back he finished with a flurry, but was a head short, second...grrr.

Next on my list was the 7th from Aqueduct, a nine furlong turf allowance.  My pick was the second half of the entry, 1a-Party Now.  But I had noted in my analysis that if she scratched in favor of the first half of the entry I would defer to 7-Bohemian Dance, who was listed at 6/1 in the program.  So as I looked at the board the #1 was running, not the 1a.  So I headed to the window with my mind on Bohemian Dance.  In her last she was in stakes company in the Lady Baltimore, and had no where to run in mid-stretch, but still only losing by less than two lengths.  I expected jockey Javier Castellano to sit mid-pack, but as the field broke from the gate she went right to the front.  As they spun out of the clubhouse turn the opening fraction was a slow :25 and change and she was still clear on a loose rein through an opening half mile in a pokey :52 and change.  This is looking great!  The 3/4 fraction was absurdly slow in 1:18 and change.  Clear by two into the lane, here came the favorite and a longshot.  At the 16th pole it looked like they had the momentum, but Castellano still had something left.....surged to the wire....WINNNER! 

The two best parts to the story were that (a) Bohemian Dance had left the gate at 7/2 and (b) while I'd planned on a double investment on my initial pick I had not noted an investment amount should that one scratch....but I stuck with it!  So the $9.20 payoff resulted in a return of nearly $50!  Uptown Draw looked much the best and very deserving of his 4/5 odds in the 2nd at Hawthorne based on his class drop, but he showed nothing until a belated rally for third in mid-stretch.  At Finger Lakes my "best" of the day was in their featured 7th where trainer Jerimiah Englehart had an entry.  EITHER would have been worthy of short odds favoritism, but with two separate jockeys named it looked like you would get two for one here.  But, only the 1a-Rockford ran.  As I watched the race on my phone I smiled because the weather in upstate New York was apparently very much the same as that of Kim's parents in Erie, Pa as you could barely see Rockford pulling away at the top of the lane through all the blowing SNOW!  Didn't pay much, but it was still win number five for the day.  He'd no sooner crossed the wire when they were off at Laurel in the 7th, a five furlong turf sprint.  Golden Story was my choice.  He'd been facing tougher in Kentucky and New York and was coming off a near-miss second in New Jersey.  In the first two jumps he was clear by daylight.  He took them easily into the far turn and when they hit the top of the lane he opened up by seven widening lengths without ever being asked to run!  The easiest $10 of the day!  Missed in the opener at Del Mar with Brad Free's "best" of the day and then was no where to be found in Churchill's 7th. 

As I noted in the video recap (see below), it's funny how handicapping is an esoteric "art" as sometimes it's about the numbers and/or angles, and other times not.  Creative Art in Hawthorne's third was 5/0-4-0 locally and 21/5-10-2 for his career.  A CLEAR case of a runner with "seconditis."  But, as I noted in my analysis, ".....if he's ever getting over the hump it's today with speed on the inside to track....."  Even as I got ready to watch the race I wondered what had drawn me to him.  But he just "felt" like a winner here.  The co-favorite was dueling on the lead with another pace runner and Creative Art was positioned perfectly outside as they turned for home.  I was thinking, well, he either hangs again, or this is it.  And I had been right on the money!  He collared the leader and then burst by to the wire, winning by daylight!  At Gulfstream I tripled the bet on Bachata Dancer who looked to be the lone speed today despite the outside draw under Paco Lopez.  When a longshot went to the front and he pressed the pace through a :50 half mile while two clear of the rest of the field I knew I was home free.  Lopez shook up the reins as they swung out of the turn, and his head was briefly in front....but then he stopped badly, 8th :(  It was now time for the finale at the Big A in New York.  When I'd handicapped the field and had seen that Simple Love was clearly my choice to win I thought about how I ranked his chances compared to Genre from the 6th who was my "BEST" of the day in NY.  I initially marked him as a triple bet, but before I closed the pp's I changed that to another "prime time" play.  He was simply the best, period.  He had run second in back-to-back $50K nw3L events and was now dropping in for a $20K tag.  Even better, those two races had earned him Beyer figures that were better than any LIFETIME number earned by all his rivals with two exceptions.  And one of those exceptions had already been beaten soundly by Simple Love.  He stalked the leaders while hugging the rail into the far turn.  What to do, swing wide for the stretch, or wait for an opening?  The battling leaders floated three off the rail and Simple Love glided through and opened up by three quickly!  It looked to be all over but the shouting, until in deep stretch a 15/1 closer made it interesting.....but not so much that I ever really worried! 

PRIME TIME WINNER #2!  The 4th at Hawthorne saw me backing former student, now top jockey Rosemary Homeister, Jr. on Ratatat over the Illinois turf course.  She looked to get a nice pressing trip and she was right there turning for home at 4/1.  My double investment was going to net me $50 or more and I was thinking about messaging Rose how nicely she'd positioned Ratatat when the horse simply stopped running - faded to fifth :(  The ninth at Gulfstream Park West was a claiming event going a two-turn mile.  Alguna had raced for this claiming tag twice in her last four starts and DOMINATED both of them.  She was 7/2 in the program and I was betting the minimum.  In the early betting she was a prohibitive 3/5 and I briefly considered upping the bet, but considered how I'd lost earlier today with a couple of short priced favorites that I'd been happy afterwards that I had only backed them with the minimum.  Alguna was outrun, along with the rest of the field to the far turn.  But the two dueling front-runners were both double digits on the tote board.  But when the fractions were posted at :25 and :50 and she was still at least six off the leaders I was a bit concerned.  The Paco Lopez asked her to run and by the time they'd spun out of the turn and headed home he had dead aim on the surviving front-runner.  By the furlong marker she was in front and Lopez had her under wraps to the wire.  Win #9 on the day :) 

The 5th at Hawthorne was next, a claiming sprint and I was puzzled by the fact that Rum Therapy was listed at 5/1 in the program.  What was curious to me was that he'd rattled off two straight wins, the last coming HERE at this distance, at this track against many of these!  And even more surprising, that last win had come at odds of 2/5!  Was he being dismissed because he comes from way, W-A-Y back?  To me, that hadn't been a problem before, so I bet him.  Sure enough when the field hit the far turn he was barely in the television picture!  In fact he was just starting his run on the turn as the leaders were heading for home.  But you could see, he was starting to pick off horses.  Had he started too late?  I thought so until about the 16th pole when every stride the field ran, he was running three strides and those were GIANT strides let me tell you.  Blew right on by for my 10th win.  He'd been bet down to 5/2, but still, considering he was 2/5 last time?  I'll take the $7.40 payoff and cash for nearly $20.  My last win of the day was the most enjoyable.  It was the finale at Gulfstream - a five furlong claiming sprint over the turf.  As I noted in my analysis, most of these kind of races are won wire to wire.  Even when it appears there will be a pace battle up front, typically one is the speed of the speed and/or clears early and then it's all over.  So, as I wrote, it's always a bit of a risk to go with a presser or a closer.  But this time I did as I put Mornin Brew on top.  He had never raced this short, he'd built his resume by going two turns, including a 7 1/2 furlong third place finish for this price tag last time out.  I thought he'd sit close, but clearly off the pace.  But what drew me to him was not the past performances but the trainer stats.  Kirk Ziadie was listed as a 23% winner of turf sprints, a 43% winner with runners second off the shelf, and an even bigger 45% with jockey Edgar Zayas.  And while his current figures were low for this meet, I've watched this guy over the last year rattle win after win, and especially with Zayas in control.  I doubled the bet.  Sure enough, as the field hit the far turn there were two speedsters and Mornin Brew was tracking on the rail.  Zayas swung three wide for a clear run to the wire.  Meanwhile a closer was coming on the outside and another on the inside.  But Zayas had them measured.....collared the leaders less than a furlong out and cleared late to win by daylight!  Now you'd figure that every handicapper could see the same stats I was looking at, and especially on a Thursday when there was NOT a big crowd of casual fans to inflate the price, Mornin Brew had to be one of the favorites, right......

UNBELIEVABLE!  I collected over $60 and guaranteed a winning day!  By the time the last race was in the books I'd finished with eleven wins from thirty-three picks (a nice full day of racing!), while I was second seven times.....would have had a BIG profitable day if a couple of those had come home :)  But, it was a great day at the races, especially under the sunny skies and upper-70 degree weather.

 

November 13 Video Recap

November 6

Today was one of those days I always "dreamed" of when I was working.......it was a sunny Thursday afternoon, and when I was working I would have said, "....if I were retired, I'd be at the races today!"

When I was on the porch Wednesday morning and didn't have any real plans for the day, it struck me.....this is exactly the kind of day that I'd thought about when I was working.  I can spend today handicapping, because I can.  Not because tomorrow is a big stakes day, it's a racing day.  And tomorrow I can spend the day at the races betting maiden races and claiming races in the beautiful South Florida weather because they pay the same on Thursday afternoon as they do on Breeders' Cup weekend!  And so I handicapped the Gulfstream West card, Aqueduct, Churchill, and Hawthorne.  I had planned to handicap Finger Lakes, but for some reason the DRF only had the cards for the 5th and the 7th.  But on Thursday morning there they were, so I added races from Finger Lakes. 

When I arrived at Gulfstream West I immediately walked out to the rail, snapped a "selfie" and posted it on Facebook as a reminder to all my working friends that one of the greatest perks of retirement is to be in control of what you do and that you can do it just because you can!  And so the day began.  It made the day just a little sweeter when I looked at the racing simulcast signals - it was obviously cold and rainy!  And here I am in the upper 70's under sunny skies.  Could it get any better?  The first pick on the sheet was from Finger Lakes where I liked the obvious favorite, Goodnewsisnonews who was first off the claim for Linda Rice.  He'd been facing much better at Monmouth, Saratoga, and Belmont, so the "drop" into Finger Lakes non-winners of two-lifetime should make him an easy winner.  He rallied up the rail, forged a short lead in mid-stretch but was outfinished on the outside to be a close third.  The opener over the sloppy Aqueduct main track was a non-winners of three-lifetime and Seven Stars looked very obvious.  She was third off a long layoff today, but more importantly first off the claim for top claiming trainer David Jacobson.  The rivals she faced today struggled to reach the 60 plateau on the Beyer speed figure scale, but she had hit this in five of her last seven starts.  And then there's the obvious.....Seven Stars was breaking from post SEVEN!  Duh.  She rated off the pace through the turn and moved four-wide into the lane.  She collared the leader at the 16th pole and edged clear to the wire.  I had doubled the bet so I cashed for over $20! 

Next up was the opener at GP West.  Capriccio Blue was bet down to even money and he alternated taking the lead and being passed by my second choice, Hot Coffee.  But when they turned for home he spurted away from that one to be two clear.  But 'Coffee was not done and nailed him in the final strides, second.  The opener at Churchill Downs I liked Cadron who was dismissed at 7/2.  I thought he was the clear speed of the race and as heads turned for home and he was coasting two clear on an easy lead I was calculating how much money I would collect.  But then here came a late runner....WHERE'S THE WIRE!!!!! Nailed in the final strides!  In the second at Aqueduct I was initially all against Oohlala.  She had more starts than any of her maiden rivals and was listed at 4/5 in the program...why?  But then I saw Dave Liftin's column.  Not only did he pick her, she was his "best" of the day!  Really?  Dave is rarely wrong with his "best bets" so I added him.  One of those rare days when I should have gone with my thoughts.  I had Redbeard listed as the third choice and she won at 6/1 while Oohlala struggled to get third at 6/5.  I lost all chance in Gulfstream's 2nd when Lucky Rascal broke slowly in a five furlong turf sprint - 6th.  I had to wait until the next at Gulfstream before my next pick went into the gate, but this was to be my first winner locally.  Whiskey Tap stalked the pace three wide, moved to the lead then fought determinedly through the lane to hold the lead.  Close, but a WINNER!  Cashed for a measly $10, but that's better than tossing the ticket on the ground :) 

Note:  My Own Photo From The Rail!

At Churchill Downs Heir To Dare looked much the best on several angles.  Five of the seven runners she faced here wanted the lead and she was a stalker, drawn on the outside.  She was dropping out of a series of $20K races to today's $10K spot and trainer Brad Cox was a 30% winner with jockey Shawn Bridgmohan.  She stalked the lead for sure, but was four wide into the lead, losing valuable ground while the winner enjoyed a rail-skimming trip.  Second at 4/5.  Back to Finger Lakes where Pleaseandthankyou was the local handicapper's "BET of the Day."  He outclassed her rivals by multiple lengths even on an average dy.  The last time he'd run in conditioned company she romped by over fifteen lengths.  Much the same today as he broke right to the front despite the outside draw and was L-O-N-G gone under wraps.  Sadly he left the gate as the prohibitive 1/4.  Still, my triple investment led to a collection of over $20. 

Less than a half an hour later it was time for my first "BET of the Day!"  I had one each at Aqueduct, Churchill, and Hawthorne.  This one was the fifth in New York. I had seen House Rules run at Gulfstream this past winter and she was a good second in TWO graded stakes.  The first in the Grade 2 Davona Dale behind the very talented, but ill-fated Onlyforyou; then a very close second in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks behind In Tune, who was my "best" on Derby Day.  Today she was facing allowance rivals and looked much the best to me.  She was the even money favorite as she ranged up three wide into the lane to take over and draw off.  WHOOO HOOO! 

I cashed for $40!  That's two wins in a row and I had dead aim on a third a half an hour later in the opener at Hawthorne.  This was a maiden claiming event going 3/4 of a mile and it looked to me like Sandro was clearly the one to beat.  There were four first-time starters in the field and if none of them wanted the lead then Sandro would be loose on an easy lead.  But, he'd shown the ability to run from a pressing/stalking spot and that gave him a huge edge on (a) the firsters who would falter due to lack of experience and (b) the deep closers - especially Bahnke who was my second choice - because he'd have first run to the wire.  The race played out exactly, well almost exactly, as I'd seen it.  Two FTS runners dueled through the turn with Sandro right behind them.  He made his move and was first one clear to the wire, but Bahnke had made his move early and was now breathing down the neck of my choice.  He was gaining with every stride.....PHOTO FINISH!  I thought, both when I saw it live and in the slow-motion replay that I'd won, but the exact placement of the wire was unclear to me.  Fortunately I was right, it was my third winner in a  row.  I'd doubled the bet so I cashed for nearly $20. 

Three of the next four races saw me run second :(  At Gulfstream, Heiko was loose on the lead for top rider Edgar Zayas.  Yet, despite absolutely no pressure he ran the first half mile in a testing :46 and change.  Could not resist one closer, caught in deep stretch to be second.  Midnight Notes was my pick over the Churchill turf and she was a perfect 2-for-2 in Louisville.  The difference she made her move at least four wide off the turn while the winner enjoyed a soft trip up the rail.....too late, best-of-the-rest second.  And at Aqueduct I thought for sure I would win when Celebrated Talent went right to the front and was long gone, until the final strides; second at 7/2.  Back to Finger Lakes for their finale and I liked Special Action.  He would be a daylight winner with any of his FIVE 2013 efforts, but today he was being PLUNGED in claiming level and his pp's didn't show a single sprint race, causing all kinds of red flags.  Generally speaking I'm pretty good at looking in-between the lines and seeing who's being thrown to the wolves as a "fire sale" and who's dropping for the win;  that was the way I saw this one.  He was sent off as a prohibitive 2/5 and did not get the smoothest of trips as he was pinned down inside on the deep, sloppy going.  Still, he moved through easily - it appeared - through the turn and burst clear into the stretch.  But the second choice on the board was driving towards him and it was very close.........WINNER! 

What's ironic is that my selections at Finger Lakes (where Jeff and I wrapped up his senior trip, "Track Tour 2000," was that I went two-for-three at this small racing venue and I nearly didn't play here today!  I missed on the next four without really being close as they passed mid-stretch before it was time for my final live race.  This was the 9th at Churchill Downs, an allowance-optional claimer with conditions for non-winners of two allowance races, or a $62.5K claiming tag.  Right away Saffron Hall JUMPED off the page to me.  Not only was she 3-for-4 at this demanding nine furlong distance, but she was on a three-race win streak having taken down three straight allowance contests on the turf.  Best yet, the last one was an allowance race with non-winners of THREE conditions!  So today she'd run for the tag and actually drop in class.  She was my "BET of the DAY!" in Louisville!  But then something happened that makes - to me - racing so intriguing.  As oh-so-obvious as she seemed to me, somehow she was hovering around 3/1 at post time!  The race played out just as I'd seen it as she stalked the pace, moved to challenge at the top of the stretch and then blew by at the 16th pole. 

I could not believe my good fortune when the tote board flashed $6.80 in the win slot!  My "prime time" investment meant a return of nearly $70!  I headed home knowing that if I won just one of the last three not only would I finish well over 30% wins for the day, but in all likelihood in the black for the day.  And that would be amazing considering that besides Saffron Hall all of my winners had been even-money or less.  The fifth at Hawthorne was a claiming event on the turf and Saratoga Boot looked best on the drop.  The crowd agreed and sent her off as the 6/5 favorite.  She pressed the pace, moved to the lead into the lane.......and faded to fifth.  That's not good.  Then the finale at Gulfstream I had Todd Pletcher's Austa in a maiden claiming event.  He's nearly 30% with maiden claimers and she was making what looked like a winning move on the far turn when she had to take up sharply.  If you watched it it was the check that was so severe, but it was that all her momentum was put on hold for a count.  She re-rallied nicely, but now it was too late to catch the leaders and she was 4th while wide into the stretch.  So, it all came down to the finale at Hawthorne.  Gentleman's Code was plunging from consistently running well, and often favored, at the $20K level into today's $4K level.  But again, I thought none of his races were bad efforts, and he needed confidence booster.  As they loaded into the gate he was hovering between a remarkable 2/1 and 9/5 on the tote board! With Gentleman's Code being my "BEST" of the day in Illinois, the $56-$60 return would indeed make me a profitable winner on the day.  As the last horse approached the gate an 11/1 runner tossed his rider.  Sigh....an obvious late scratch, but what that meant was that all of that money in the win pool was now eliminated and my odds dropped to 4/5.  I was lucky that they floated back up to even money by post time.  Just as I thought, once they turned for home the race was over as Gentleman's Code galloped away by daylight in a romp! 

The return netted me over $40, and it cut the final deficit to single digits, but not quite enough to be able to proclaim the day a profitable one.  Still, for me it had been a GREAT day.  Spent the day at the track, in beautiful South Florida weather - never got above 80 degrees - and I was proven right on many of my selections!

October 18 - 19

50% WINS!  $100+ Profit!

What a GREAT weekend!  Early in the week I debated about handicapping just the stakes races, or taking on the entire card for the tracks featuring this weekend's stakes action.  By Thursday I had decided I would handicap all the races, but was still up in the air about going to Gulfstream Park West for the day - and missing out on a day of college football - or staying home and playing online. 

When the weather on Friday morning broke and we were in the high 60s, without humidity, I decided that with the weather predicted to be a notch cooler on Saturday would make for a great day to spend at the races, and so that became the plan.  The featured races for the weekend were a pair of Grade 1 events, with a Grade 2 support feature at Woodbine on Sunday.  So on Friday I also handicapped the full Woodbine card for Sunday.  The weekend started off in a superb way as Friday night Kim and I had tickets to the Broadway musical, "Annie" at the Broward Center for the Performing Arts.  I smiled the entire evening and said several times, "I love musicals."  Little did I know that this was foreshadowing a GREAT weekend at the races.  Saturday morning dawned with temperatures in the mid-60s and by about 11:30 I was on the road to Gulfstream Park West.  I have to say that the shorter trip to Miami Gardens is most appreciated by this handicapper.  For the day I had handicapped Laurel and Belmont - as they both had a full slate of state-bred stakes races on Maryland Million Day and Empire Showcase Day - as well as Gulfstream Park West, which had two turf stakes, and Keeneland and Santa Anita.  The first race on my selection sheet was the first of fifteen stakes races, the Maryland Million Nursery for juveniles.  My top selection was Golden Years who was coming off of a dominant maiden win.  While he was stepping into a stakes while facing winners for the first time, several of his rivals today were still maidens.  He'd worked a sizzling bullet for today and I'd been impressed by his ability to sit off the pace in his win last out after a less than clean break.  Today he broke sharply and pressed the pace along the inside; as they turned for home it looked like a stretch duel might develop but at the furlong marker Golden Years found another gear and drew off sharply.

When I handicapped for today I used the early past performances and had the DRF morning line odds.  Unlike most of the numbers, Golden Years had been listed the program favorite, and he was the post time favorite at a very short 1/5.  But, I'd doubled the bet and collected nearly $15. 

Less than five minutes later they were off in the opener at New York.  My pick in the six furlong maiden special event for juveniles was Tizquick.  He had debuted as best-of-the-rest second at Saratoga while pressing the pace.  But the significance of this effort was NOT that he ran second, but that the winner Upstart had come back to run a best-of-the-rest second in the Grade 1 Champagne and is Breeders' Cup bound.  As I watched the race I didn't think Tizquick had a problem breaking but the fact was he was at the back of the pack all the way down the backstretch to the far turn.  But as they hit the turn he began picking off horses one by one and by mid-stretch it wasn't a question of IF he'd catch the leaders, but when and by how much would he win.  He reached the front at the 16th pole and drew off by daylight.  While he too was the prohibitive 1/5, I was 2-for-2 on this glorious day and that was good enough to take a selfie and post it on Facebook! 

I walked out to film the first video clip of the day and realized I'd left my camera tri-pod at home....grrrrr.  Now what?  The rail is crowned so I didn't figure that would work, but I decided to try it and it worked!  OK, nice to know I don't need to have this in my pocket all day :)  Next up on the sheet was the second from Belmont, and the first of their NY-bred stakes races, the Sleepy Hollow for two-year-olds going a one-turn mile.  This race was the first of many that irked me because of the DRF line and the actual program line.  Now don't get me wrong, when I handicap the program odds next to never have any impact on my selections.  But when I was done handicapping I thought I had a full slate of nice-priced runners.  Like Ostrolenka here, listed at 6/1.  But, as I wrote in my analysis, who could really believe that a Todd Pletcher two-year-old, coming off a dominant win with a huge 90 Beyer speed figure AT THIS DISTANCE, OVER THIS TRACK would be anything but the favorite.  Typical for the DRF linemaker's numbers.  So, it came as no surprise that when they left the gate Ostrolenka was the short 3/5 favorite.  He pressed the pace and drew off up the rail as MUCH the best and now I'm three-for-three overall and 2-for-2 in stakes action!

About ten minutes later the live racing action got underway.  I liked Kiton who was coming off a layoff for trainer Jorge Navarro.  That was a 37% win angle for this powerful barn that had produced a boat-load of winners at Monmouth for me last summer.  He was too far back early and his late run was just good enough for third.  The winner was my second choice as he went nearly wire to wire.  The third at Belmont was the Maid of the Mist for two-year-old fillies.  Temper Mint was the 3/5 favorite and opened up at the top of the stretch.  I thought I was about to cash on my third stakes winner of the day, but a closer ran right by her at the 16th pole and she had to settle for second while well clear of the rest of the field.  Back to the local runners and the second was a maiden claiming event over the newly renovated turf course.  Delantara had only been on grass twice and both produced sharp efforts against much better that she was seeing today.  She was listed at 5/1 by the DRF, but the crowd wasn't fooled as she left the gate at 3/5.  Right to the front and was never asked for her best as she drew off with authority. 

This made my fourth win from six selections and the two losses were both with minimum investments and three of the four wins were all with added money investments!  I am truly enjoying my afternoon!  I had another short-priced favorite in the Mohawk Stakes at Belmont.  King Kressa looked like the clear speed in this state-bred stakes, and he had nearly wired the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch before being caught by Horse-of-the-Year Wise Dan.  So these looked to be easily at his mercy.  But I was just a little leery about when he was spotted here and not in a graded event, so I only doubled the bet.  Sure enough, right to the front and had an easy :51.1 half mile but when he was asked to take off at the top of the stretch he had nothing and was lucky to hold third.  In the Maryland Million Sprint I went with Avarice who was 7/2 in the DRF.  He was second off the shelf (27%) and moving turf to dirt (40%) AND had a bullet work.  He was bet down to 6/5 favoritism but when the gate sprung open he hopped at the start and never recovered.  A late run on class alone earned him a show placing.  The Iroquois was next.  This Belmont sprint came down, on paper, to La Verdad vs. Willet.  La Verdad had set insane fractions last time out in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom and seemed clear to win until an unbelievable late run from multiple graded stakes winner Artemis Agrotera nipped her on the wire.  That gal is now off to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint as one of the favorites!  La Verdad was clear of the rest of the field, which included Willet.  But here was the issue, as described by DRF handicapper Dave Liftin:  La Verdad had been running steadily for nearly a year and those fractions might have taken a toll on her while Willet was making her first start off a layoff in the Gallant Bloom.  Would she improve while La Verdad weakened late?  I didn't think so as La Verdad looked like the LONE speed in here.  As expected she went right to the front, but what I did not expect was that she had to duel on the lead to the far turn.  As I watched the race I thought "this is not good."  She put that pace rival away and was clear into the stretch and now was the time to answer the question as Willet was flying up the rail.  But, La Verdad had plenty left and held on by daylight!  WHOOOOO HOOOOO!

I had tripled the bet and cashed for $25!  The next on my sheet was one of the few selections I'd found on the Keeneland card.  This was a Maiden Special event going 1 1/6th mile on the turf.  I thought Sky Flight had a legitimate upset chance on several subtle angles.  First, he had debuted at Kentucky Downs and had shown brief early speed, fell back - losing ground and positions - then re-rallied.  That "fall-back-gain" angle is often a sign of impending improvement.  But this was even more significant when you note that at Kentucky Downs the stretch is run UPHILL!  So to re-rally going uphill was a big plus.  Also, trainer Mark Casse had a 22% win rate with second-time starters (a positive $2.18 ROI) AND a 20% win rate with first-time Lasix users at a huge $4.01 ROI.  Jockey Shawn Bridmohan is a 31% winning rider for Casse at a $2.41 ROI.  All of this and at 10/1 in the DRF line!  So, I knew he wouldn't be that kind of price and even track handicapper Mike Battaglia had listed him as his top choice.  So leading up to the start his odds wavered around 9/2 and 4/1.  As they hit the backstretch he was sitting perfectly in third while in the clear.  As heads turned for home he made his move and was between horses....the stretch duel was on!  He battled to the front and edged clear late to WIN!  WHOOO HOOOO! 

But best of all, the late money had gone on three others and his post time odds floated up to a big 7/1!  The $16.20 payout led me to collect over $40!  I "suffered" through my longest losing skid of the day as I lost three in a row.  Monster Sleeping went off at 9/2 in the Maryland Million Ladies on the turf in spite of the fact that she was the defending champion.  I had tripled the bet but she ran evenly to be fifth.  At Gulfstream West I liked Defense Article was first off the claim for Jorge Navarro (37%) but was too late with his big rally, third at 6/1.  And then Thunder Affair ran to his 24/1 odds at Keeneland when never in it, ninth.  I headed out to the rail (well, stood on the benches for a better view of the turf course) to watch the 5th at Gulfstream Park West.  This 8 1/2 furlong test was a maiden special event for two-year-olds.  On Pennsylvania Derby Day at the end of September I'd found the first of what would be many Todd Pletcher debut runners at Gulfstream for the winter and he'd won as the favorite.  So here was another one.  Al Khazaaliya might be a price I thought because the one "weakness" in the Pletcher arsenal is typically on the turf where he "only" wins at about a 26% rate!  LOL.  So, even though he was listed at 12/1 by the DRF I figured he'd be the favorite or at least second choice.  But instead, he was 5/1 to 4/1 throughout the betting.  I shook my head thinking how lucky I'd be if I actually got that kind of price.  But when they hit the far turn and he was still near the back of the field I sighed, thinking the crowd had been right.  I even considered putting my camera away.  But then I hesitated as heads turned for home and I heard his name called.  Cameras Up!  Blew by the field under a hand ride to win going away!  And he'd closed at a big 4/1 at post time. 

The $10 payoff and my double investment led me to collect a US Grant at the windows!  I snapped a pic (at left) of me cashing yet ANOHER ticket on a Pletcher first time starter, duh! Yippeee!  Kala Ryan was a very disappointing 11th at 9/2 at Keeneland and Ready for Summer was a dismal 7th at 5/1 as I lost back-to-back races at Keeneland, both with double-up bets.  The first of the feature turf stakes at GP West was up next, the Cellars Shiraz Stakes.  Daring Kathy had won three straight over the Hallandale course, including a stakes race last winter.  She had recently run back-to-back thirds in graded company.  So today's drop into a listed stakes made her the class of the field.  I doubled the bet and she was hammered down to even money favoritism.  But I thought that was a fair price.  She went right to the front without having to be asked and led them on a merry chase wire-to-wire in hand.  As the field had passed by me in the stretch the first time and Kathy moved from the outside to the rail in front of the field a rider of a horse near the front went down.  OBJECTION and INQUIRY!  You've got to be kidding......but when I watched the replay Kathy was no where near her and the claim was quickly dismissed.  Cashed for $20 on my fourth stakes winner of the day.  Heir of the storm looked like the clear speed at Santa Anita AND was dropping in class.  The only issue I had was that she'd always gone to the front and given way.....but I thought with the class drop she'd hold on.  Didn't even make the front and was an even third of five runners.  Sigh......Right back to the winner's circle however.  This time in New York.  As I had awaited the start of the Cellars Shiraz the betting was under way for Belmont's Ticonderoga Stakes. 

My initial decision was to double the bet on Discreet Marq.  She was a Grade 1 winner and looked like a stand out.  But like King Kressa earlier I had some reservations about her running in this spot.  As I waited for the Gulfstream feature I re-read my analysis; then I read Dave Liftin's.  I now noted he made Discreet Marq his "best" of the day.  Hmmmm.  Typically if I don't pick a Liftin runner and don't have an opinion, I bet his "best."  If that horse is already my pick, I typically up the ante.  So, do I do this now?  I wavered, especially with recollections of King Kressa's failure to produce.  But as they loaded into the gate here at Gulfstream I decided....I'm having a good day, and I'll use this race as a barometer - if Daring Kathy wins then I'll double my initial bet to make Discreet Marq a "prime time" investment.  And so as Kathy scored in hand I walked in and made a $20 win bet on Discreet Marq.  This nearly-white mare was prominent in third to the far turn, blew by the top two without even taking a deep breath and then was LONG GONE!  WHOOOO HOOOOOO!  But then there it was - INQUIRY/OBJECTION....against the winner!  Really?  Again?  The replay showed as they approached the turn and Discreet Marq began to move, a runner on the rail checked slightly.  But that one was NEVER in the race.  They looked at it for several minutes from several angles, and I had to agree with a guy sitting near me who said to no one in particular, "They won't take her down."  And sure enough, the OFFICIAL sign came up!  YES! 

She had gone off as the 4/5 favorite so with the prime-time bet I cashed for nearly $40 on my 10th win of the day and fifth stakes winner.  Truly a very good day to be at the races!  Next up on my selection sheet was the feature from Santa Anita, the California Flag.  This was a 6 1/2 furlong turf sprint down the hillside - as I've said many times, I LOVE these turf sprints.  It is such a unique course and one of the most predictable of race configurations to handicap......look for runners with previous success down the hill.  So I had tabbed Red Outlaw who was a perfect 5-for-5 in his career.  His Beyers had improved with each start and his win over this unique course came in his first start down the hill, and THAT my friends is very unusual.  When I had made my bet on Heir of the Storm earlier I had gone to the GP window about 30 minutes before post time and told that "they weren't taking those bets yet."  I thought that very odd that close to post time.  So, since my final bet of the day (at Santa Anita) would be when I had already left the track I decided I would just make all three California bets through my Twin Spires account.  Well, when I went to make the bet on Red Outlaw I had discovered he was scratched. Hmmmm, only four horses.....who did I list as my second choice in the race and why?  I had picked Boozer who had a 5/2-1-1 record down the course.  The only reason I'd picked against him was because I liked Red Outlaw to outrun him early.  Then I heard a little voice in my head saying, "Wait a tic, wasn't Boozer Brad Free's "best" of the day?"  I quickly looked it up and YES he was, and that was WITH Red Outlaw in the race.  Free wrote that he saw Boozer wiring the field as the "most likely winner on the card."  Now Brad Free is the only other national handicapper that I regard as I do Dave Liftin....I don't have an opinion, who does Brad like?  If I like a horse and Free is on him as his "best" it's time to up the bet.  So now I considered the facts at hand.....my pick was out, leaving my second choice who I already liked as the lone speed; he was a Horse-for-the-Course down the hillside AND was Free's "Best" of the day.  So I had bet $10 to win on Boozer.  So, now after cashing my Discreet Marq tickets, I looked at the Santa Anita board and Boozer as sitting at 4/5 with only three rivals to beat.  I said to myself, "if they will take a live bet I'm doubling my investment by putting $10 to win in "live" money.  Sure enough they took my money!  When they left the gate he was 3/5 and burst right out of the gate to take them down the hill.  As they made the tight turn off the turf course across the main track into the lane Boozer floated wide allowing the inside horse to come to him.  Come on, I thought, show me why you're Brad's best.......he hit another gear and ran away from the field!  OH YEAH BABY, my tenth winner of the day and sixth stakes winner. 

With the prime time investment I cashed for nearly $35!  The next was the Maryland Million Turf.  Ben's Cat is a 27-time winner, yes, twenty-seven, and over twenty of them are on the turf.  But, here's the rub, he's made his living sprinting.  As I had handicapped the race I noted that he'd run in this one mile race last year and was nipped on the wire by veteran Roadhog.  And BOTH were running today.  But, Ben's Cat had disappointed in both of his last starts, so I thought many might jump off his band wagon.  I on the other hand thought he'd run big today, and he loved this course.  A chance for a nice price on one of the best turf horses in Maryland. 

I went "prime time."  I figured he'd stalk the pace, take over near the turn and have to hold off Roadhog late.  If that one was too far back, the pace was soft, or he had a less than perfect trip I was in.  So as the race unfolded I was watching his trip as much as Ben's Cat.  Ben took over on the turf and Roadhog was forced to go wide to get out of trouble.  The pace was not slow, but it was not hot either.  I knew he'd never catch Ben!  Ben's Cat opened up by daylight as they hit the 1/8th pole and Roadhog was making up no ground.  He was 3/2 on the board and I'm starting to count my $50 in winnings when I noted that while Roadhog was not gaining, another runner was quickly closing past him.  Ben's Cat was all heart.....but couldn't hold off the late charge in a near-photo finish loss, again.  Sigh.  I looked down at my sheet and was surprised; I thought that the Ticonderoga had been the final stakes on the Belmont card.  But no, I had a pick in the Hudson Handicap, a 6 1/2 furlong sprint.  My pick was #7 Moonlight Song.  He was 6/1 according to the program, but as the lone speed I was sure he'd go off at a shorter price than that.  It was ten minutes to post so I made my bet.  As I watched them go into the gate I was amazed that his odds were sticking at 5/1.  Really?  Am I missing something?  The bell sounded and right to the front went Midnight Song.  He set a measured pace under Joel Rosario.  The field looked to be waiting to make their move and as heads turned for home the rides began to push their mounts.  But Rosario had yet to ask for Moonlight Song's best!  He held sway and actually drew off late! 

 

The payoff of $12.60 resulted in a return of over $30.  In retrospect I should have at least doubled the bet.....Lone Speed at 5/1?  But to be fair to myself I have been trying to be restrained and conservative in my betting this fall.  I'll take the nice price as a good piece of handicapping.  Two misses were next when Wallyanna disappointed at even money in Gulfstream's Showing Up Stakes.  But not only was he in post eleven but he broke slowly - lucky to rally for fourth.  Miss Behaviour had been dominant in the Grade 2 Charles Town Oaks last out and I saw no reason she'd not run as well in the Grade 2 Raven's Run at Keeneland.  But the crowd was cold on her, she was 6/1.  Either she's not going to figure or I've got a nice price play!  A distant 7th with my triple investment going into the trash can.  Despite having won with eleven picks so far and with two prime-time investments the difference between a fun day while making a little money and a great day would come own to the final live race I'd watch, the Maryland Millions Classic.  And this was my BET OF THE DAY!  Eighttofasttocatch was facing a field with a combined record of 1-for-14 at today's nine furlong distance.  He was a superb FIVE-for-TEN!  In his last three starts at this distance he'd earned figures of 97, 100, and 101 while the rest of the field never made it out of the low 90s.  The only time 'Eight had run that kind of number at this distance was four back when he earned a 91.  But check it out....that was in the 2013 Maryland Million Classic when he won UNDER WRAPS.  Looked like a huge standout to me, and the probable lone speed as well.  The crowd let him got at 3/5 and he easily made the lead.  When the opening quarter went up in an average :24.1 and he was just loping along I knew that it would take a major unforeseen circumstance for me to lose.  As they turned for home and a couple of rivals closed the gap the rider gave 'Eight his cue and he accelerated away easily.  Geared down late he was a daylight winner!   WHOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOO!  Win number twelve and my eighth stakes winner from fifteen stakes races. 

He paid a very fair $3.20 on a $2 bet, but I, my friends, had a $40 ticket on him!  I cashed for $64!  As I went to one of my favorite Calder tellers to cash out (the Boozer ticket, the Moonlight Song ticket as well), she said, "....that's nice!  You had a good day today!"  I replied, "I did indeed!"  It was of little consequence, although I would have liked to add another win, that I was third at 9/5 in the late Santa Anita eighth.

Sunday:  Canadian International Day

It's interesting, to me at least, that in spite of having handicapped "seriously" for over ten years, bet on over 15,000 races and won over 5,000 of them that STILL after a good day on a Saturday I often find myself "anxious" about my Sunday selections.  Why?  Because after spending hours on the Saturday card and firing away for five or six hours at the track and having a winning day I have had several Sundays where I only have four or five races on my card and an 0-for day can wipe out the entire good of a Saturday's worth of handicapping.  You'd think I would either be able to recognize (as I often do) that it's the big picture, not one day against another; or that the odds are I will probably do just as well on Sunday as I am a pretty steady 35% handicapper or better.  And so with four selections on the Woodbine International card I had those same thoughts.  I even had a brief thought to pass the day, but then I reminded myself of the "big picture" and that I had handicapped the card and found runners I truly DID like.  I had a pick in the three graded stakes and a pick in an allowance early on the card.  As is my usual practice I went only about 11:30 am to see the scratches and make my bets.  I found it odd that in spite of the big day - which usually means an early post and early scratches - there were no changes announced yet.  So I shrugged it off and made my four bets.  Kim and I had planned to head to the movies for a 12:30 showing and so I'd miss the first couple of races.  My plan was to just wait and watch all four of them in the early evening after the races were completed.  My first bet was in the 4th, an optional allowance sprint on the Woodbine all-weather main track.  Hillaby was my pick.  She had blown the doors off her rivals in her first two starts of 2014.  She was off for over 90 days but still ran a very similar number in a turf sprint last out when beaten four lengths going seven furlongs.  Today it was back to the main track and a cut back to 6 1/2 furlongs.  She had a sizzling :59.4 workout so I saw her as loose on the lead from the rail, or pressing a faint hearted longshot.  Right to the front and L-O-N-G gone!  I smiled to myself and heard an inner voice say, "....and you were worried about not winning....." 

She was the 4/5 favorite, but paid $3.90 so I collected nearly $20.  Next up was the featured Grade1 Canadian International.  In my analysis I narrowed the field to three.  On the big turf days here at Woodbine the Europeans typically dominate, as they do on Breeders' Cup.  But I think that the massive course which features an uphill run to the backstretch is also very Euro-like.  So my top pick was Brown Panther.  He was a multiple Group winner in Europe and an impressive 5-for-7 at the mile and half distance.  In spite of this the DRF listed him at 20/1.....really?  The program odds were 6/5!  I had tripled the bet.  Big Blue Kitten was a multiple Grade 1 winner in the US but had not won a graded stakes since August, of 2013!  Probably figured as a good underneath play.  The upset choice I thought would be another Euro, Hillstar.  He was also listed at 20/1 by the DRF.  He got top euro rider Ryan Moore and he boasted a win and three seconds in four Group races across the pond.  But his second behind Brown Panther made me lean towards that one.  So as I opened the replay video they were going into the gate.  I looked for the odds on #4 Brown Panther and noted he was scratched......NO!  Who was the favorite?  Hillstar!  If I was at the track he would easily have become my pick.  Sure enough, Moore gave him a great ride and he rallied through the stretch to score as the 6/5 favorite.  Sigh........

The Grade 2 Nearctic was a six furlong turf sprint and I liked Excaper to either wire the field or press he leaders under Emma Jayne Wilson.  But as they left the gate Excaper was quickly outsprinted and sat fourth, but some five lengths off the lead.  Horses that like to be on or pressing the lead typically don't want to run anywhere else, and such was the case here as he ran evenly around the course to be fourth under the wire.  And so it came down to my final bet, which happened to be my "BEST" of the day.  It was the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor at a mile and a quarter for fillies and mares.  My pick was Just The Judge.  She had was 4/0-0-3 in 2014 but those were in three Group stakes and the Grade 1 Beverly D at Arlington on Million Day.  Looking down her pp's she showed a Group 1 win last year and a near miss in Group 1 company, and obvious class play.  But it was the Grade 1 Beverly D that caught my eye.  She was a close third that day.  The runner-up that day was Stephanie's Kitten who came right back to win the Grade 1 Flower Bowl and is Breeders' Cup bound.  La Tia set the pace in the Beverly D before weakening late.  She made her next start in the Grade 3 Athenia and wired that field.  And Emollient had finished off the board in the Beverly D but exited that event to win the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive at Santa Anita and looked to return to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf where she was a good third last year.  All of this made Just the Judge a standout to me.  She sat in fifth after a mile under Euro rider Jamie Spencer, but less than five off the lead.  As they moved through the sweeping far turn Spencer saved ground rather than rally wide.  As heads turned for home there appeared to be no where to run, but he pushed Just The Judge into a spot between horses and bumped slightly with them as though saying, "LOOK OUT, I'm coming through!"  She burst clear of the pack and took the lead!  Meanwhile the other Euro, Odeliz, who was my second choice (and being ridden by Moore) had enjoyed a clean but wide trip was flying.  The two Euro mares battled through the final furlong but it was Just The Judge clearly the winner!  I waited for some objection or inquiry off the bumping, but nothing was forthcoming!  I WIN!  WHOOOOOOO HOOOOOO! 

She paid $5.20 so I cashed out for over $50!  Two-for-three on the day and another profitable day!  For the weekend my totals read:

14-for-28     50%    Profit of $100+

 

It had been a great weekend indeed!  Two weeks to the Breeders' Cup!