May 26

Memorial Day Racing

After a week that saw me go 13-for-27 through the first four days and profit nearly $100 I was hopeful for a big day at the races.  But, that was not the case today.....it was, let's be honest, a struggle.  After winning two of the first six, cashing for $65 and going into the black I went through a 1-for-13 streak.  I finished with eight wins, but lost with four of five "prime time, best" bets on the day.....the lone winner of which paid a whopping $2.80 when Grand Contender won the Grade 3 Lone Star Park Handicap loose on the lead. 

The recap video has the stories on the wins, but there are two worth telling here.  First, I had handicapped the Lone Star card and at about 2:00 - with first post at 2:35 - I could not find a monitor with Lone Star.  I walked the length of the facility at Gulfstream and then asked. I was told, we show a 2:35 start, it will be up shortly.  With ten minutes to post I made my bet, and sure enough they were taking bets on Lone Star, and again  walked the length of the facility, even going in the casino to look at their monitors....still no Lone Star.  I asked again and was offered a seat with a TV monitor for free, but I declined assuming that the TV Dept would surely put the races up somewhere.  No.  But, ah the wonder of technology, I was able to watch all the races via my phone.....first on the Lone Star site with their replays and then with my Horse Racing app.... 

The other story came on the last "prime time" play of the day.  Of all days this month, where I've had such great success, my oldest son Jeff said he wanted to play with my "Best" bets for the rest of the summer.  And I've gone 1-for-4 so far, only getting back $28 back on his $100 investment. But, as I told him, in the Grade 1 Gamely, win or lose, this was the time and the right bet.....$20 to win on Emollient who was the only Grade 1 winner in the field (two of them, including one over the Santa Anita course).  And I thought you could excuse her last three starts.  Today she was going to be a fair price and indeed she was, as she was 3/1 as they left the gate.  Our $20 win bet would cash for at least $80 and Jeff would be a profitable winner for the day.  She stalked the pace to the head of the lane and opened up!  I was certain we were a winner......

But on the outside here came a 16/1 outsider.....PHOTO FINISH........

JUST nipped on the wire......arrrgggghhhhh.  Topped off a dismal day where I was winless at Churchill (0-for-6), but as I told Jeff later, for me it's the long haul.  I am sure next weekend when I look at the month of June it will prove to have been one of the best months I have had in a long time, and even for he week at Churchill it was a strong week:

 

27 Selections - 11 WINS (40.7%) .... +$40

Memorial Day Recap Video

 

May 25

Yet ANOTHER 50% Day

The winning continues!  Though, to be fair, it didn't take a genius to figure out the first two of the three wins on the day.  In the opener you don't find many horses who appear, on the surface, as unbettable as Kodiak Syd who was 0-for-11 as a maiden, in the maiden claiming opener.  But the other choice was going out for a 3-for-62 barn.  But when compared to this field Syd looks like a Breeders' Cup champion.  No fooling the crowd who was 1/9 early on.  In the second the favorite looked even stronger and there were multiple scratches.  I considered a daily double which was paying even money.  But typically that kind of bet, for me, would result in only one of the pair winning; I'd be 50% on the day and I'd be behind. So I bet both Kodiak Syd and Lincoln Law to win, straight up, double investments.  They both walked with their races.  I was surprised, and delighted that Kodiak Syd floated up to 1/2 so I cashed for $15, but Lincoln Law paid only $2.60. 

I ran second in the 5th race, leading all the way to the stretch before weakening;  n the 7th I dueled on the lead, and weakened to be fourth.  I had a 14/1 longshot in the 8th.....led to the turn and I briefly had thoughts of a giant upset, but no, he stopped to be sixth.  Closed the day out with a very nice 4/1 winner in Strike Charmer.  He was a Churchill Downs 40% Club winner, going out for David Carroll.  He makes the Club with long layoff runners, which was the story on Strike Charmer.  Adding to the evidence was the fact that Charmer's lone win came HERE at this distance and he had a sharp five furlong work for today's return to the races.  I might have passed on this one considering Carroll's 0-for-10 start to the meet.  But, having read the Churchill Downs Handicapper, I knew something the crowd did not.  When he rated off the leaders to the head of the lane then drew off as much the best, I was rewarded for my research!

May 24

Biggest Day Of The Week!

I had decided that Monday, Memorial Day, would be my on-track day.  If no one hits the Gulfstream Rainbow Pick Six by then the pool could clear $10 million, and that would be an exciting day!  Today at Arlington Park they were running their first three graded stakes of the summer, and so I decided I would handicap their card and play those races with my Churchill Downs selections.  Kim went to the beach so I was handicapping while I was watching HRTV and making my bets.  The second at Churchill was the first play of the day.  I liked Determined Yankee who was a Churchill Downs 40% Club play for trainer Greg Foley.  Runners off a 61-to-90 day layoff have won 44% for Foley.  Technically Determined Yankee was off 92 days off a layoff, but it didn't bother me as Foley as over 30% with any layoff runner.  Right to the front and LONG gone!  I only had $5 to win so I cashed for $13.00.  Right back in the fourth with my second bet where I tripled the bet on Quiet Force.  She was dropping out of back-to-back graded events, and was yet another CD 40% Club play.  Michael Maker with Rosie Napravnik - I need to look up how many times I've scored on this angle - but it was the surface switch of dirt to turf that made this a triple-play for me.  Maker runners moving onto the turf have won at a big 44% rate over the past two summers.  She sat in the pocket while fifth to the turn, moved four wide and drew off under a hand ride!  This was Rosie's third win of the day, and the second for me! 

At a $5.20 payoff I collected nearly $40!  The first of the Arlington "bonus plays" as next and Talent and Grace moved boldly on the turn but was only second best.  But I came back in Arlington's fifth with Bank Account who went wire to wire very handily as much the best and cashed out for over $10.  Next up were the two best scores of the day.  First at Churchill Downs yet ANOTHER Michael Maker-Rosie Napravnik double-team on Saffron Hall.  The crowd was all over another runner and let this one go to post at better than 3/1!  Well besides the obvious - CD 40% Club with Rosie riding - there was the fact that she was owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey.  Two-thirds of all of Maker's wins over the last two springs have come with runners in the red & white silks of the Ramseys.  Add in that the field was a combined 4-for-17 on grass and Saffron Hall was a 4x winner herself.....how do you NOT play this one?  She stalked to the turn, drew along side the leader and wore that one down late.....Rosie's fourth win on the card and my fourth win on the day!  WHOOO HOOO! 

And best of all, the price - $8.20 to win meant I was cashing for over $40!  But my "BET of the DAY" was now coming up, and it is a good story.  While waiting for the races to start and I was handicapping I had on HRTV.  In the hour prior to racing there is the West Rock Coffee First Call show which features Aaron Vercruysse and Jeff Siegle.  I had met these guys on Breeders' Cup Friday and told them I often watch them. We talked about their nice job of providing winners, and many at good prices.....they rarely if ever go with a favorite.  And each day they each give out three "Daymakers" - horses that will "make their day" if they win.  Well, while watching that show Siegle said that Saythreehailmary's was his first in the 6th at Belmont.  He went so far as to say that he knew she'd be the favorite, but quite simply if the course wasn't wet he'd have called her a "mortal lock."  And the only thing keeping him from saying that today was the wet track.  Hey, that's good enough for me.  So it was time for the 6th in New York shortly after Saffron Hall scored and the filly did not disappoint.  Stalking under a tight hold to the turn, she drew off by TONS the best by seven widening lengths while never being asked for her best. 

I had invested a "prime time" $20 on her and got back nearly $40!  Next on my list was the 9th from Churchill Downs and I tripled the bet on Tres Belle.  She was another 40% Club play being sent out by Bob Baffert.  Dirt sprinters for the "silver haired fox" win at an amazing 67% over the last two years, and I've already cashed on a couple of these.  Couldn't ask for a better jockey either, yep, Rosie!  She started slowly, but moved up quickly to press the pace on the turn and drew off as MUCH the best.  That was a new Churchill record for wins in a day, five, for Napravnik, and my SIXTH win today.  I am having a VERY good day!  The $4.60 payoff times my triple investment netted another near $35.  That was it for the day.  I wish I would have had a stakes score to write about.....especially since I had played Arlington for their three graded stakes.  But in the Grade 3 Louisville Handicap Forte Dei Marmi was fourth trying to chase a slow pace.  In Arlington's Grade 3 Matron Frivolous chased a loose on the lead front-runner and was a best of the rest second.  In the Grade 3 Hanshin Cup in Chicago Pass the Dice went off at a juicy 5/1, was right with the leaders for the stretch run and actually got his nose in front close to the wire but was outfinished to be third, beaten about a nose and a head.  In the final stakes Chief Barker was an even 4th at 5/1.  Still, for the day I was a amazing 6-for-12, yes another 50% day!  And I'd made a profit of $70!  What a great Saturday of racing!  AND I got to have Rosie on four of her record five winners on the day!

  

May 23

A-N-O-T-H-E-R  BIG Day!

I am on such a roll!  Today I had five selections on the card.  I passed the first and then, much like yesterday, I won with my first selection in a 2-year-old Maiden Special.  Lucky Player was, like yesterday's juvenile winner, trained by Steve Asmussen.  Today though Ricardo Santana was riding.  This was as much a vote against Lucky Player's rivals today, as a vote FOR him.  It helped to have solid connections and four sharp works locally.  He rated in third professionally behind dueling front runners, caught them in the stretch and drew off as much the best.  The price of 3/5 was a fair price all things considered.  I ran second in the next race despite the fact that Sugar Run Wild was a CD 40% Club angle for trainer Mark Casse.  He led into the stretch and looked like a winner, but was caught, battled valiantly and in the end was out-finished.  But the score of the day came in the 4th where Jester and Me was sent out by Michael Maker with Rosie Napravnik on board.  Duh.  Two Churchill 40% Club angles were in play....Napravnik alone on board is a 41% win angle with Maker raining, and then Jester was making his 3rd start off a layoff - that my friends is a HUGE 64% win angle for Maker.  Certainly this runner will be the favorites, or at least a short priced second choice.  He stalked to the stretch then when Rosie said "GO" he was LONG gone, winning as track announcer called, "....for fun..."  But here's the best part - somehow the crowd let him go off at a big 4/1! 

The payoff of $10.60 multiplied times my double investment brought me a return of over $50 and I was guaranteed another winning day.  I was third in the seventh after leading into the stretch when under pressure and then weakened.  In the final pick of the day I trailed throughout finishing seventh.  For the day I was 2-for-5 (with two other in-the-money finishes), for a profit of over $20!

May 22

Kick Off The Week With 2-for-4 Day

The Thursday card had only four selections that I had confidence in wagering on.  One of which was in the opener in a 2-year-old Maiden Special sprint.  Rousanne was out of the Steve Asmussen barn with Rosie Napravnik onboard.  When she rides one of his horses, the numbers over the last two springs shows a win 48% of the time!  With two sharp works I thought she was a standout.  She was sent off at a miserly 1/5 and went wire-to-wire, but to be fair, it was NOT easy. 

She was only clear in the final fifty yards, but hey, I'll take the win to kick off the week.  I had a pick in the 3rd, but the weather took all the turf races off the inner course and so I lost my pick.  In the 5th and 6th I had two minimal investments......Nellie Frances was a gigantic 19/1 and ran to her odds (6th_ and then I had Let's Go Ben who ran third in the off-the-turf sprint.  But the "Bet of the Day" came in the last selection of the day, the 8th.  I had won earlier in the meet with Highroller Dave, and he was back today in a Starter Allowance seven furlong sprint.  Several statistics pointed him out....the Tom Amoss barn was off to a 34% start; they were winning 32% with Rosie Napravnik riding; 33% with runners making their second startof the meet, and finally 37% with runners coming off a win. He trailed early and I thought I'd made a mistake, but then he blew by the field easily to score! 

Best of all, even though he only paid $4.00 I had tripled the bet!  50% and a clear profit for the day to kick off the week!

May 19

Fourteen Days Into The Project

We've had fourteen racing days to date of the Churchill Downs Handicapping Project and I had to stop and give myself a pat on the back.  Over the ten years that I have been seriously handicapping, which I'd define as keeping records to see how I actually perform because the "numbers don't lie," I have often compared my numbers to professional handicappers who post their selections online.  And I have always had numbers better than most.  But, to be fair I have those numbers based on my selections which allows me to pick and choose my spots while the professionals are required by their job to select every race, every day.  And so on occasion I have, like this summer, handicapped every day / every race and kept track of my results and compared them to theirs for the same period of time.  I have found two handicappers that are far superior to any others - Ron Nicoletti at Gulfstream and Jill Byrne at Churchill Downs, and it is clearly Jill who is the best of the two.  I tried taking on Ron Nicoletti at the 2012 Gulfstream meet and had these results:

As you can see my numbers were "good" but not nearly a match for his.  The summer of 2012 I was even more thoroughly out-handicapped by Jill Byrne in my first Churchill Downs project:

I wasn't surprised in the end because I have always seemed to be a notch below my typical numbers when I analyze my selections at Churchill Downs.  But it is also noteworthy that the project results were skewed, in my opinion, by the fact that over the last 42 selections I had only four wins!  Take that streak out and my numbers were much better, but still not on par with Jilly....not only attractive, but a great handicapper - hard to get past that.  BUT, in other handicapping challenges I have fared much better, two notable examples was when I took on Mike Costanzo at Gufstream in 2010 and Mike Welsch, a national DRF handicapper, at Calder in 2009:

And so we come to this summer's project.  I knew that Jill was the best, but I also felt like my handicapping has moved to a new level, and I wanted to have two projects this summer, and the eight week Churchill meet was a great fit for my handicapping schedule.  And so here we are, three weeks into the meet and I am keeping track on a daily basis of how our numbers compare.  My plan was to have a half-way analysis and a post-meet analysis, but instead I am posting this today because of our current status.  It reminds me of former college coach Lee Corso, a celebrated analysis on ESPN's College Game Day, once said when he was coaching Indiana and they had never beaten Ohio State.  So on this one Saturday they were winning at halftime so he had the entire team pose for a photo in front of the scoreboard :)  And so I wanted to pause and boast about my numbers after three weeks: 

There is nothing wrong with Jill's numbers, but at this point not only am I keeping pace, but I am ahead of her!  No matter what happens through the final 34 days of the meet, I can always look back at this specific point of the project and say I was "winning!"  Perhaps lost in the overall numbers, is how exceptional I am doing with my betting selections here - I have NEVER had those kind of numbers at Churchill Downs.  GO ME!

May 18

WOW!

What a way to end the week!  As I wrote in yesterday's journal, I was a little wary of having selections today after such a H-U-G-E weekend. It's not a regular occurrence, but it has happened on multiple occasions that I'll have a big day at the races on Saturday, playing all day with some 25-40 picks and then come back - as part of a handicapping project - and go winless or win just a single race on Sunday to dull the weekend's success.  Today I had six selections at Churchill Downs and one of them was a "Prime Time - Best of the Day" bet.  As I was checking for scratches around 11 am I decided to do a quick look-see at the racing schedule at both Belmont and Santa Anita to see if there were any stakes races and/or big horses running.  The races at Belmont did not interest me.  As I was checking I got a text from Jeff who was in Dallas before heading back out on the recruiting trail for Houston Baptist University Football tomorrow.  And after the "rush" of Preakness Day at Lone Star Park he texted he was heading out again.  When we talked yesterday I had told him that if the thoroughbreds were running, he should check out the picks online because the Lone Star handicapper, Rick Lee, is deadly with his "Lock of the Day."  So, once I saw Jeff was going there, I checked it out.  His pick was in the 4th, a claiming race on the turf.  I liked what he had to say and added it to my list.  On to Santa Anita....there was a Grade 3 on tap today, the Adoration Stakes.  I didn't really recognize any standouts in the field so I checked out Brad Free's pick - he had the favorite as his "BEST" of the day.  Good enough for me, added her to the list.  I then texted Jeff to watch for these two runners. The first race on the schedule was the opener at Churchill, a 5 1/2 furlong maiden claimer and my pick was Kiwah's Warrior.  There wasn't any real form to go on, but for this sophomore, who had been beaten a combined 44 lengths and change over his first two starts there was a reason to make him the play......he was being sent out by trainer Cecil Borel who is a Churchill Downs 40% Club member with TWO angles here.  Borel has won with 47% of his runners making their second start of the meet over the last two springs - today is Kiwah's second start of the meet!  And he's won at 44% with all maiden claimers - which this race was.  Either the crowd has read the Churchill Downs Handicapper, or paid special attention to Jill Byrne's selections because in spite of having those huge losses on his resume he went off at 3/2.  Right to the front, in spite of stumbling out of the gate and just galloped home, lengthening the winning margin the length of the stretch! 

I had doubled the bet, so I would be cashing for $25 to start my day!  I passed the second, but my op election, Big Town won!  Man, I am such a roll I win even when I don't bet :)  In the third I ran 5th as the 9/5 favorite....shocking.  In the fifth I liked Peneleput in an 8 1/2 furlong turf contest for maiden specials.  Half of the field had never been on the grass and the other half was a combined 0-for-16.  Looked like a spot for a bit of an upset.  This filly was going out for Charlie Lopresti, known as the trainer of 2x Horse of the Year Wise Dan, and Lopresti is a Churchill Downs 40% Club member with horses making their second start off a layoff - which Peneleput was doing .....IF you count her debut run last out as a first "off a layoff" - over the last two springs he has won here at an amazing 80% with those.  Close enough for me considering that she had Tomlinson umbers suggesting she'd like the stretch to two turns and the switch from Keeneland's synthetic main track to the Churchill sod.  She went off at a more-than-fair 3/1 price.  Through the first half of the race she was completely out of the monitor, 11th.  But on the far turn she was revving up, though carried six wide by jockey Julian Leparoux - can't get a smooth trip out of that guy.  But as she straightened for the run through the lane she had dead aim on the leaders and caught them in the shadow of the wire! 

WHOOOO HOOOOO!  Paid a nice $8.20 and with just the minimum on her I was cashing for over $20 again.  I passed the sixth and in th 7th I had doubled the bet on Hero Wisdom at a gigantic 18/1 who was a CD 40% Club play for trainer Gary Simms.  He made a move on the turn, but had no late run - 4th.  Then it was time for the Lone Star race.  I knew it was around this time, but I didn't have a specific post time, so I switched screens on Twin Spires and they had just left the gate.  Seeking West had faltered twice at Lone Star last year as the favorite for trainer Steve Asmussen, but today she was coming into this turf claiming event off of three straight wins.  She stalked the leaders into the turn, then had a sudden burst to accelerate right by the front four and was suddenly three in front.  Some late runners were making up ground, but were not a threat to the wire!  Winner, winner, chicken dinner!  She was the 3/2 favorite, and I'd doubled the bet.....cashed for another $25 with my third win of the day from just  five selections......amazing, again.  The 8th at Churchill Downs was my "Bet of the Day."  As I told Kim later, I'm not certain I would have played against Dynamic Decision today, but I certainly would not have jumped all in today had I not had "inside information."  She was coming off a maiden special race at a mile where she'd pressed a fairly quick pace, and then weakened through the stretch.  Today she was trying to stretch out to nine furlongs, so as the favorite I might have been inclined t play against or pass.  But her trainer, Mark Casse is a Churchill Downs 40% Club member with second-time starters at the meet, 41% win over the last two years.  AND her last out 80 was a strong number for a debut runner.  Owner John Oxley's horses win at a near 40% clip for Casse, so that sealed the deal.  She jumped right to the front, but then let a 40/1 longshot have the lead while she bided her time on her outside hip to the far turn.  When jockey Alan Garcia asked her the question mid-way on the turn as the stalkers made their move she cruised into the lead as heads turned for home.  Now was crunch time....that additional furlong, could she go on with it?  She accelerated away from the field to draw off by open lengths!  Officially 3 1/2 on the wire! 

The $4.40 payout meant I would be collecting over $40 on my "BEST" of the day!  In the finale on this Sunday afternoon under the Twin Spires County Corrections was listed at 3/1 making her third start for Brett Calhoun and Rosie Napravnik.  In her debut he was in MSW company and was the favorite, but was floated six wide into the stretch.  Two months later he was the 6/5 favorite in a Keeneland MSW and made a run up the inside but shied away from the rail, and then was checked.  Dropped in for a first-time tag, for $40K he was a winner if she had a clean trip I thought.  The crowd pounded him to 3/5 at post time.  He rated in second, moved to the lead in the stretch and then had to work hard to hold the lead to the wire, but was clearly the winner.  I'd doubled the bet and was cashing on my FIFTH win from just seven selections.....nearly $20 more into my account!  I had to wait for a couple hours, until nearly 7:30 for the Santa Anita featured Grade 3 Adoration Stakes.  Without the form I was relying on Brad Free's analysis and he said that Let Faith Arise looked like the lone speed from the rail.  What I liked most was she exited the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and had run well in spite of a slow start.  But today she did not make the early lead.  She stalked the leader, made her move, but the pace had been slow and the front runner had something left.  But in the end the class of Let Faith Arise was too much and she was narrowly in front on the wire. 

She paid $3.00, so I cashed for $15......incredibly it was my SIXTH win from just eight selections, an astounding 75% and I'd profited over $60.  This made my three day weekend totals look like this, WOW!

34-for-62, well over 50% and a combined profit of over $300!

May 17

Preakness Day

What An AMAZING DAY!

I did wonder, to be honest, before the Black-Eyed Susan Day started yesterday if there was ANY chance that I could have a racing weekend even a remotely close to how phenomenal the Derby Weekend had been.  But I told myself to think practically....what were the odds that I could win over 40% of my bets and cash for $300 in profits?  Slim, at best.  But then yesterday I scored at a 50% win rate and made over $80.  As I printed off my selection sheet for the day and went over it I truly had a very, VERY good feeling about my selections.  It was almost a scary feeling because I felt I might have a shot at coming close to my 2011 and 2012 Preakness Day performances where I won 22 and 21 races!  But I told myself to just let the day play out.  Before I left for the day I got a text from a friend of mine, Jim Anderson, who said his wife was out of town and he was thinking of going to Gulfstream, would I be there?  I was delighted that I'd have a "track buddy" for the day!  And, my oldest son Jeff was going to be at the races, at Lone Star Park in Dallas, so we'd be together, "virtually."  The day started off ok as I ran 4th at Pimlico before leaving the house and then scored with my first live bet when Pearls for Girls wired the 2nd at Belmont.  She had been Dave Liftin's "best" of the day and she was never in trouble.  I missed with the next two, and then it was time for the first of the many stakes races at Pimlico (Note:  the track had dried out to be "fast" and the turf was "good" for the day, horray!)  In the 5th, it was the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint.  I had seen Happy My Way run three of his four times at Gulfstream, and for the meet he'd won three of four, including a last out win over graded stakes winner Ribo Bobo in the Sir Shackleton on Florida Derby Day.  Ribo Bobo had come out of that to wire a Monmouth stakes race, making it a KEY race.  I tripled the bet, and he was an EASY winner going wire to wire as the 3/5 favorite. 

I collected nearly $25.  The race had just gone official when they were off at Churchill Downs for my first selection there.  Barry Shortpants had disappointed last time out, but today he was a Churchill Downs 40% Club play as trainer Gary Simms wins an amazing 67% with his runners making a third start off a layoff.  Barry had trouble at the start and lost several lengths; then was wide into the turn and had to duel all the way to the wire.  But in the end he was up in time at a short 2/5 price.  That made two in a row, and my second win in a row!  Belmont was next on the list and Misconnect was a classic Todd Pletcher move. She had won as MUCH the best in her maiden special victory last fall, then he gave her several months off.  Today she was fresh off the break and in an entry level allowance.  The crowd made her the 3/5 favorite and as they spun out of the turn not only was she behind horses but she seemed to not have any acceleration.  She shifted three wide with 1/8th of a mile to go and then she found her running shoes......she blew by the trio of leaders and was drawing clear late to score - three in a row and my fourth win of the day!  I filmed my first video of the day and got a text from Jim that he was just arriving.  Back to Churchill Downs and I liked Runaway's Sis who had dueled through insane fractions in her first try against winners last out.  Today's drop in class should see her get a more comfortable trip I thought.  She dueled on the inside and was just held on.....that makes five wins. 

Missed at Belmont and then Jim came.  We both bet Ageless in The Very One Stakes at Pimlico - a turf sprint with a full field of thirteen fillies and mares.  Watching on the monitor inside at Gulfstream there was just a mass of runners heading into the turn and I could not see the #7 anywhere.  Midway on the turn I saw a rider checking his mount, yes, that's me!  But at least I now had found her.  He was hugging the rail and as heads turned for home he still seemed to have plenty of horse under him.  A seam opened up and she accelerated through.  She made the lead with a sixteenth to go and drew off with authority! 

WHOOO HOOO!  Paid a nice $6.60 and I cashed for over $15.  As soon as they crossed the finish line Jim and I headed out to the grandstand as they were loading into the gate for the 2nd at Gulfstream.  I thought that Starship Amanda might be my "upset of the day."  She was listed at 10/1 in the program - but when the betting opened she was the 6/5 favorite!  Luckily by post time she'd floated up to 2/1.  She dueled on the outside to mid-stretch and then edged clear to score. 

Jim was so excited that he'd won multiple races in a row :)  I was happy my picks were hitting, and when the identical $6.60 payoff came up I matched my Ageless score with another $15 and change!  After running second at Arlington I turned the page to the next set of selections and noted that I'd already won SEVEN races!  WOW, I am off to a sizzling start!  How long is this going to go on?  Jim and I watched Belmont's Paradise Creek Stakes going seven furlongs on the turf and as my pick Chart Topper led them into the turn I said to him, "I probably should not say this out loud, but he's NEVER lost when leading after the first call.....like he did today."  Jinxed it.....sigh.  Faded to third at 4/5.  But then the "magic" was back as I won not one, not two, not three, no....FOUR in a row!  At Arlington Gimmeadrink was heading into the gate just as they were loading into the gate at Gulfstream.  So we headed out to the rail and watched Longer Terms Doug make a four-wide, sweeping move to the front turning for home and prove much the best.  I was happy that he had floated up to 3/5 at post time.  He'd been 4/5 through the betting but with five minutes to go someone bombed him and he was 1/9!  As we walked in I found the Arlington monitor and there was #2 - Gimmeadrink pulling clear by six widening lengths.  His price ws a much better 9/5.  The two tickets were going to get me $45 back!  

While the race in Chicago had been finishing they were off at Santa Anita.  I moved down the line of TVs and found the correct monitor, just in time to see my pick, L T Reckless drawing off under a hand ride while the jockey kept looking back under his arm for someone to challenge him.  Nope, no one, my third in this streak of winners!  And as soon as that went official they were in the gate for the Chick Lang Stakes at Pimlico.  Let me back up for a minute here.....when I cashed the tickets on Starship Amanda, Ageless, and Runaway's Sis I had noted that the payoff came to $46.  I made this sequence of four bets and as I got my change I thought that the teller had short-changed me $5.  But I wasn't sure as I was no positive the about what I'd seen or the total of my bets.  So, they're off at Pimlico where I liked Meadowood.  He was one of a couple of sophomores who were lightly raced and unbeaten, but what I liked about him was that his two wins had both come sprinting - something the others could not say.  AND he had Javier Castellano on board.  He was rating off the speed of the favorite at 5/1 on the rail.  They turned for home and the chalk opened up by two lengths.  But then Castellano tipped Meadowood off the rail and once he saw daylight he burst to the front and won going away!  The $12.20 payoff was great.  My phone rang and it was Jeff saying what a good score that was and that he'd doubled the bet to collect over $60.  Good for you I told him.  I made a video recap of these four races and noted my good fortune to be collecting over $30 on this win.  But as I started down the steps to go cash and gathered my tickets I found that the Meadowood ticket was NOT a $5 ticket, I too had put $10 to win on him!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO! 

I cashed for $61 on that one and for a grand total of almost $115 on the four scores.  As Jim and I discussed our winnings I felt a little bad because he told me he didn't have the nice score.  I knew he wasn't betting every horse on my sheet, but I thought he WAS betting all the Pimlico races.  Then he pointed out how I had bolded and marked in orange font all the Pimlico races, but that the Chick Lang was NOT - it looked at a casual glance to be just another one of my selections.  Sorry....but hey, it's right there in black and white!  I missed with three in a row - shocking - though I was in all three.  At Churchill I was moving strongly but was four-wide and then stopped; at Calder I was on the lead in mid-stretch and gave way; and then at Gulfstream Discreet Ed recovered well from a bad break to be third, just too late.  Again, coming off multiple losses I wondered about how the rest of the day would go.  I had started counting my wins and was already at eleven.  With about 30 picks, I was guessing, I'm already at "my percentage" - 30%.  But, I thought I had several REALLY good picks left.  And sure enough, just like the last time when I missed the winners, I came through to score another four straight times!  The first in this sequence was at Churchill Downs where Liberal Spin was the 3/2 favorite, but dueled to the wire and was JUST up in time.  Then at Arlington I had Silky Sami.  I liked him because he was a six-time winner at Arlington, and he was 10-for-31 at today's 6 furlong distance, while only 3-for-17 at all others.  But as the horses came out of the far turn and into the stretch he wasn't even IN THE TV PICTURE!  Where's Sami?  Then I see the #7 coming around the bend and gathering momentum.  At most tracks the fact he was about 8 lengths off the lead at this point would render his chances pretty hopeless.  But there is something about Arlington's synthetic surface that allows nearly any closer to make up ground in giant chunks through the final furlong.  And Sami had a full head of steam.  He was off the rail, but the rider wisely did not take him five wide to clear the field.  He was weaving through traffic and as he approached the top four at the 16th pole he kept his horse straight, split rivals and was clear going away at the wire!  WHOOO HOOOO.  He paid $5.60 and I'd doubled the bet.  With the Liberal Spin win I now had over $50 worth of winning tickets in my pocket.  The next winner in the sequence was a great job of handicapping, if I do say so myself!  Preciou Mem was 3/1 in the 7th at Monmouth, a six furlong sprint in nw1x allowance company.  As I looked at his pp's I noticed that in April 2013 he came off a layoff to run in a turf sprint at Atlantic City, lost, and then shipped her to run in a six furlong dirt sprint, and WON.  Today he was coming in second off a layoff, where was he last time?  That's right....running in a turf sprint at Atlantic City!  Uh oh!  add in that trainer Willard Thompson is a Monmouth Park 40% Club member when Paco Lopez rides.....that is an amazing 56% win angle!  Right to the front, and while he wasn't daylight in front on the wire, he was clearly the winner!  The tote board showed a $6.00 pay-out, which meant I'd be cashing for $45!  Now I have nearly $100 in winning tickets in my pocket!The fourth in this sequence was the Grade 3 American Stakes at Santa Anita.  One of the best turf milers in the country over the last two years - besides 2x Horse of the Year Wise Dan - has been Obviously, who's been running them off their feet out west.  He is a front-running fool and can set sizzling fractions and keep on going.  But in his last three starts last fall he just didn't look like himself, but he did run better when third in the BC Mile behind Wise Dan.  Today he was coming off a layoff but had been working bullets.....the reports were he looked like "the old Obviously."  But, today he'd have t deal with the new kid in town, Winning Prize, who had won three straight graded stakes this winter at Santa Anita, also on the front end.  So I listed Obviously as my double-bet selection thinking he just might out run his rival who might try to sit off the pace today.  But when I looked at the board, Winning Prize had scratched!  Now there was NO OTHER SPEED in the race.  I doubled my own bet to make Obviously "PRIME TIME!"  Right to the front and when the second place horse was being asked for everything on the turn and Obviously was still under a hand ride I knew I was long gone! 

Though he was the 3/5 favorite I was delighted to take the nearly $35 and more importantly to have been right to up the bet!  I was very disappointed when my "best" at Belmont gave way in the final fifty yards after leading by daylight in mid-stretch, and then was 4th at Monmouth.  But the 5th at Santa Anita was Brad Free's "best" of the day.  I doubled the bet on Jovita's Tuffy.  He was being moved up confidently from 3L runners for a $16K tag, where he'd won convincingly to an open $20K spot first off the claim.  His connections must think he's got some talent.  But as they turned for home he was well back.  Like Silky Sami he found his best stride and was FLYING through the lane and was just up in time! He paid a nice $5.80 and I cashed for another near $30.  Not I'm up to SIXTEEN wins - maybe I AM going to get twenty!  At Churchill I had a true UPSET SPECIAL when Deep Thought went off at 18/1!  He was third on the turn into the stretch over the turf, but faded to 8th.....exciting for a few moments.  Then it was back to Pimlico and another stakes for three-year-olds.  This was the Sir Barton Stakes.  I liked Class Leader.....while everyone in the field - or at least all the contenders - had hit the 80 Beyer level, this guy had run back-to-back 80 figures while winning two in a row, before being 4th last out in the Grade 3 Illinois Derby behind a starter in today's Preakness Stakes later on the card - and earning an identical 86 Beyer to his previous winning number. The cut back to 8 1/2 furlongs here, the drop in class, and the paired figures I thought made him tough.  Like Silky Sami and Jovita's Tuffy, Class Leader had a lot of work to do as they spun out of the turn.  I was just walking in from outside where I'd lost at Gulfstream and I saw the final 16th of a mile where it was a head bobbing finish.  I was pretty sure the #10, me, was on the inside and I'd been caught by another.  But when they showed the slow-motion from mid-stretch I could see that the horse that WAS caught was the #9....who was the winner on a head bob? 

That's right, that's ME!  WHOOO HOOOO - my 17th score of the day.  Cashed for another near $30.  I was outrun at Arlington and then rattled off another set of three winners in the next four races, man what an amazing day!  I had talked on the phone with Jeff and he'd told me he'd called one of his buddies who comes to Gulfstream to tell him, "my Dad is on fire with his picks!"  :)  At Belmont Sayler's Creek was trapped behind horses on the turf to mid-stretch, but shifted out and when he saw nothing but green grass he blew by the leaders to win - rack up another near $15;  missed at Santa Anita before at Churchill Downs Treasury Bill was far back early, then ralliedfour-wide out of the turn and then blew by to win going away!  And finally, a nice win at Monmouth.  More Than A Party was the 3/1 third choice in the program but I was doubling the bet, looking for a nice score.  I noticed in his past performances that this filly had shown high early speed in three of her four career starts, the only time she wasn't on the lead was when she broke poorly in a turf sprint experiment.  There was next to no speed in here AND her trainer, Edwin Broome was a Monmouth 40% Club member with Paco Lopez on - who was riding today.  Just as I thought, right to the front and LONG GONE!  The $6.80 payoff netted me over $30!  I was disappointed when Hey Leroy was just narrowly beaten (2nd) in the Grade 2 Dixie at Pimlico - he'd been my upset of the day on Florida Derby Day paying over $20, and I'd doubled the bet....and today Mr. Nelson had $50 across the board....so he cashed on the place and show payoffs to profit.  And then we walked outside for the feature here at Gulfstream.  It was a $75K stakes, the Flying Pidgeon going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  But, it featured the return of multiple Grade 1 winner, Breeders' Cup Champion Little Mike.  There were two questions about him.....first, since he'd been my "Bet of the Day" two years ago on Florida Derby Day he had always seemed to be inconsistent enough that when I had him he didn't run, and when I ignored him - especially at a nice price, he won.  Last year he just hadn't looked the same winning only one of seven - but that came at better than 7/1, so you would have profited by betting him every time.  Second, coming off a long layoff, he obviously was targeting bigger races down the road.  But then I read online and interesting story.  His owners, I knew, were from Parkland, just up the Sawgrass about 15 minutes from our house.  But six months ago the husband had become the trainer....and he was training multiple runners, AND winning at a near 20% clip here at Gulfstream.  He was quoted as saying they were targeting a Grade 1 on Belmont Day, but that Little Mike had been working great and he thought he'd "...run a huge race...." today.  Toss in the fact that Little Mike was a Horse-for-the-Course with five wins from seven starts and the LONE SPEED, and I made him the "Prime Time - Best of the Day" here.  Sure enough, right to the front, setting a comfortable pace.  The stalkers moved on him on the turn....was he fit enough to keep going?  With a flick of the wrist jockey Elvis Trujillo shifted him into high gear and he was quickly gone....winning under wraps!  W

HOOOO HOOOOO - AGAIN!  Win #21, and I collected nearly $35!  I lost two stakes races when Kauai Katie, again, just didn't look like she did as a star three-year-old, 4th at 2/5 and then Always Kitten didn't fire in the Kertana.  So it looked to come down to California Chrome in the Preakness to get me my 22nd win and tie my all-time greatest day at the races.  Jeff had called me many times over the last week and asked how much I liked him and I always said I had to handicap the field because I'd been AGAINST him in his last four starts.....now was NOT the time to jump on at a short price unless he truly was as good as advertised.  Three things persuaded me to not only make him the pick, but make him the BET of the DAY!  First, earlier this week Millie Ball on HRTV had noted that California Chrome's Derby speed figure was slower than his last two wins in graded stakes at Santa Anita.  So, she said, she had looked it up and discovered that EVERY Derby winner who's Beyer had declined off his last race prep had come back to WIN THE PREAKNESS - with one exception, who ran second.  She hypothesized that this was because they won with something left for the Preakness.  And, she finished, in looking at the race, that was what had happened with California Chrome.  So as I had handicapped the Preakness I went back and watched the race carefully.  Not only had he not been asked to run through the final furlong, the pace of the Derby had NOT been demanding.  He had cruised along with the leaders, without ever having to give 100%, opened up willingly as much the best to be clear by five in the stretch, then was under wraps to the wire.  Indeed, he was a fresh horse who truly was at the top of the his class.  Secondly, I wondered in the Derby about his habit of not breaking sharply.  In a 19-horse field he would not have the opportunity to recover....today against just nine rivals that was not an issue.  Finally, for the Derby he was running out of California for the first time and going further than he'd ever gone.....could he do either, or both?  He had, with ease.  So shipping to Baltimore was no worry, and having gone 10 furlongs, today's 9 1/2 would not be a problem.  Looked TONS the best to me.  And then I read that his connections were very, VERY confident.  They broke out of the gate and the anticipated front runner, Social Inclusion from Gulfstream sat off the pace.  So Chrome was about three off the dueling leaders to the far turn.....he dueled with the emerging pace setter through the turn and had his number, but then here came Social Inclusion to present a new, fresh challenge.  He dueled with him to the 1/8th pole and put him away.  And now here came the late-running Ride On Curlin with all the momentum.  Jockey Victor Espinoza asked Chrome to finish strongly and he did to win by open lengths!  This, to me was his best effort yet....he looked like a champion today when taking the full measure of a sharp pace to get to the front and then fending off a fresh stalker AND having enough left to win clearly from a strong closer. 

I had $50 to win on him and that would be worth $75!  I talked to Jeff and he had the winner, the exacta, and the trifecta.  It was a glorious finish to the day.  Jim and I walked out to the parking lot together and he wished me luck on my two late picks to maybe hit an all-time high for wins in a day, but it wasn't to be.  So for the day I'd hit on an AMAZING 22 of 42 selections, that is 52% my friend!  And when I got home I added all the payoffs up.  I figured I'd won, but so many short prices and then there were two $20 losses at Belmont :(  But the bottom line was:

40 / 22 - 4 - 2      Bet:  $440 / Collected:  $606.50

PROFIT FOR THE DAY:  $156

 

Put those numbers together with Black-Eyed Susan Day and you get:

52 / 28 - 5 - 4     Profit:  $240

Those numbers compare very closely to those from Derby weekend.  And I really enjoyed having Jim out at the races to have someone appreciate how well I did - and even better that he was betting my picks and winning!  I was just ecstatic about the day and the weekend.....but unlike Derby weekend where there was no chance of a "let-down" on Sunday when racing went back to "normal" I do have six picks tomorrow at Churchill Downs. Can I sustain this amazing momentum.....doesn't seem likely, but hey, you never know!

Preakness Day Video Recap - Part 1

 

Preakness Day Video Recap - Part 2

 

Preakness Day At Pimlico