May 18

WOW!

What a way to end the week!  As I wrote in yesterday's journal, I was a little wary of having selections today after such a H-U-G-E weekend. It's not a regular occurrence, but it has happened on multiple occasions that I'll have a big day at the races on Saturday, playing all day with some 25-40 picks and then come back - as part of a handicapping project - and go winless or win just a single race on Sunday to dull the weekend's success.  Today I had six selections at Churchill Downs and one of them was a "Prime Time - Best of the Day" bet.  As I was checking for scratches around 11 am I decided to do a quick look-see at the racing schedule at both Belmont and Santa Anita to see if there were any stakes races and/or big horses running.  The races at Belmont did not interest me.  As I was checking I got a text from Jeff who was in Dallas before heading back out on the recruiting trail for Houston Baptist University Football tomorrow.  And after the "rush" of Preakness Day at Lone Star Park he texted he was heading out again.  When we talked yesterday I had told him that if the thoroughbreds were running, he should check out the picks online because the Lone Star handicapper, Rick Lee, is deadly with his "Lock of the Day."  So, once I saw Jeff was going there, I checked it out.  His pick was in the 4th, a claiming race on the turf.  I liked what he had to say and added it to my list.  On to Santa Anita....there was a Grade 3 on tap today, the Adoration Stakes.  I didn't really recognize any standouts in the field so I checked out Brad Free's pick - he had the favorite as his "BEST" of the day.  Good enough for me, added her to the list.  I then texted Jeff to watch for these two runners. The first race on the schedule was the opener at Churchill, a 5 1/2 furlong maiden claimer and my pick was Kiwah's Warrior.  There wasn't any real form to go on, but for this sophomore, who had been beaten a combined 44 lengths and change over his first two starts there was a reason to make him the play......he was being sent out by trainer Cecil Borel who is a Churchill Downs 40% Club member with TWO angles here.  Borel has won with 47% of his runners making their second start of the meet over the last two springs - today is Kiwah's second start of the meet!  And he's won at 44% with all maiden claimers - which this race was.  Either the crowd has read the Churchill Downs Handicapper, or paid special attention to Jill Byrne's selections because in spite of having those huge losses on his resume he went off at 3/2.  Right to the front, in spite of stumbling out of the gate and just galloped home, lengthening the winning margin the length of the stretch! 

I had doubled the bet, so I would be cashing for $25 to start my day!  I passed the second, but my op election, Big Town won!  Man, I am such a roll I win even when I don't bet :)  In the third I ran 5th as the 9/5 favorite....shocking.  In the fifth I liked Peneleput in an 8 1/2 furlong turf contest for maiden specials.  Half of the field had never been on the grass and the other half was a combined 0-for-16.  Looked like a spot for a bit of an upset.  This filly was going out for Charlie Lopresti, known as the trainer of 2x Horse of the Year Wise Dan, and Lopresti is a Churchill Downs 40% Club member with horses making their second start off a layoff - which Peneleput was doing .....IF you count her debut run last out as a first "off a layoff" - over the last two springs he has won here at an amazing 80% with those.  Close enough for me considering that she had Tomlinson umbers suggesting she'd like the stretch to two turns and the switch from Keeneland's synthetic main track to the Churchill sod.  She went off at a more-than-fair 3/1 price.  Through the first half of the race she was completely out of the monitor, 11th.  But on the far turn she was revving up, though carried six wide by jockey Julian Leparoux - can't get a smooth trip out of that guy.  But as she straightened for the run through the lane she had dead aim on the leaders and caught them in the shadow of the wire! 

WHOOOO HOOOOO!  Paid a nice $8.20 and with just the minimum on her I was cashing for over $20 again.  I passed the sixth and in th 7th I had doubled the bet on Hero Wisdom at a gigantic 18/1 who was a CD 40% Club play for trainer Gary Simms.  He made a move on the turn, but had no late run - 4th.  Then it was time for the Lone Star race.  I knew it was around this time, but I didn't have a specific post time, so I switched screens on Twin Spires and they had just left the gate.  Seeking West had faltered twice at Lone Star last year as the favorite for trainer Steve Asmussen, but today she was coming into this turf claiming event off of three straight wins.  She stalked the leaders into the turn, then had a sudden burst to accelerate right by the front four and was suddenly three in front.  Some late runners were making up ground, but were not a threat to the wire!  Winner, winner, chicken dinner!  She was the 3/2 favorite, and I'd doubled the bet.....cashed for another $25 with my third win of the day from just  five selections......amazing, again.  The 8th at Churchill Downs was my "Bet of the Day."  As I told Kim later, I'm not certain I would have played against Dynamic Decision today, but I certainly would not have jumped all in today had I not had "inside information."  She was coming off a maiden special race at a mile where she'd pressed a fairly quick pace, and then weakened through the stretch.  Today she was trying to stretch out to nine furlongs, so as the favorite I might have been inclined t play against or pass.  But her trainer, Mark Casse is a Churchill Downs 40% Club member with second-time starters at the meet, 41% win over the last two years.  AND her last out 80 was a strong number for a debut runner.  Owner John Oxley's horses win at a near 40% clip for Casse, so that sealed the deal.  She jumped right to the front, but then let a 40/1 longshot have the lead while she bided her time on her outside hip to the far turn.  When jockey Alan Garcia asked her the question mid-way on the turn as the stalkers made their move she cruised into the lead as heads turned for home.  Now was crunch time....that additional furlong, could she go on with it?  She accelerated away from the field to draw off by open lengths!  Officially 3 1/2 on the wire! 

The $4.40 payout meant I would be collecting over $40 on my "BEST" of the day!  In the finale on this Sunday afternoon under the Twin Spires County Corrections was listed at 3/1 making her third start for Brett Calhoun and Rosie Napravnik.  In her debut he was in MSW company and was the favorite, but was floated six wide into the stretch.  Two months later he was the 6/5 favorite in a Keeneland MSW and made a run up the inside but shied away from the rail, and then was checked.  Dropped in for a first-time tag, for $40K he was a winner if she had a clean trip I thought.  The crowd pounded him to 3/5 at post time.  He rated in second, moved to the lead in the stretch and then had to work hard to hold the lead to the wire, but was clearly the winner.  I'd doubled the bet and was cashing on my FIFTH win from just seven selections.....nearly $20 more into my account!  I had to wait for a couple hours, until nearly 7:30 for the Santa Anita featured Grade 3 Adoration Stakes.  Without the form I was relying on Brad Free's analysis and he said that Let Faith Arise looked like the lone speed from the rail.  What I liked most was she exited the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and had run well in spite of a slow start.  But today she did not make the early lead.  She stalked the leader, made her move, but the pace had been slow and the front runner had something left.  But in the end the class of Let Faith Arise was too much and she was narrowly in front on the wire. 

She paid $3.00, so I cashed for $15......incredibly it was my SIXTH win from just eight selections, an astounding 75% and I'd profited over $60.  This made my three day weekend totals look like this, WOW!

34-for-62, well over 50% and a combined profit of over $300!