A GREAT Day At The Races!
You have to be happy when you win 40% of your picks and make a profit on the day.....and cash on four feature race stakes events, including a perfect sweep of the co-features on track at Gulfstream! And as if that isn't enough, I cashed on my 4,900th win of my handicapping career - only one hundred to the big five thousand plateau - and overcame a 1-for-12 skid that lasted over an hour and a half early in the day! The day started as though it was going to be a great day when I cashed with my first selection, and the opener at Churchill Downs. Crooked as Can Be had run three big races since moving into the Brad Cox barn, winning two of them and finishing a best-of-the-rest second in the other. Jockey Jesus Castanon was a 37% rider for the barn and 'Crooked was a perfect 2-for-2 at the distance. No surprise she went off at a short 3/5.....and won by daylight under wraps. I Came right back with the opener at Monmouth - I was excited for Opening Day here as the second half of my summer handicapping project will be to focus on the Jersey Shore, and I will be on track for their signature race, the Grade 1 Haskell. In their opener I liked Triple Play to take the maiden special weight field; didn't hurt that his trainer was Todd Pletcher and the rider was the king of Monmouth, Jersey Joe Bravo. He had sharp works and it just all seemed right. But as they approached the far turn he was third and it looked like Bravo was really having to ask him to run to keep up with the dueling front runners. But mid-way on the turn Triple Play glided to the outside and blew right on by. Through the lane he lengthened his stride and drew off by nearly ten lengths! 
WHOOOO HOOOO, two-for-two on the day! I missed in the second at both Churchill and Monmouth with double investments (3rd and 4th) before winning for the third time. This time it was on track at Gulfstream with Point Rocky Home. He was clearly the one to beat with paired figures in his last two starts, BOTH of which were better than any career Beyer earned by any of today's rivals. Right to the front and LONG gone! I probably should have upped the investment, but I've been trying to be conservative with my betting. Having won for the third time after only two misses little did I think that I'd miss on the next nine races! At Calder Major Prince was tons the best on paper, but fell victim to a loose-on-the-lead front runner, third at 3/5. Corso's Law was loose on the lead at Churchill Downs, was caught at the top of the lane and dueled the length of the stretch, only to be outfinished in a photo....second at 3/5 with a triple investment as he was a CD 40% Club for Tom Amoss Right back to be 2nd in another photo when this time I had the runner chasing the loose-on-the-lead front-runner, caught him, but could not get by. Second at a nice 5/2. At Monmouth Shogun Samurai was a Monmouth 40% Club play for Kelly Breen, so I tripled the bet - 3rd when outrun but rallied belatedly. Off the board in two straight at Churchill and Gulfstream before I was F-L-Y-I-N-G at 8/1 over the Gulfstream turf course. Thunder Gale was so far back at the top of the lane I put my camera away, but on the wire he as a head back - on the next jump he was in front. Soooo close. 
I was sixth at Churchill with an upset special, outrun at 9/1 and then a dismal 8th at 7/2 when Lorjim trailed throughout at Monmouth. As I stood there looking up at the monitor's I glanced at the Calder simulcast. The sixth was supposed to be my BET of the Day at Calder as Jade's Rainbow look much the best on the turf. But despite a week full of nothing but sunshine and today being a sunny day, Calder management took the race off the grass and moved it to the main track - just another reason NOT to go back to watch live racing there. But when I looked up, Jade's Rainbow was being bet down to even money. I opened the Form and checked him out.....nothing but turf races but one - and that off-the-turf event saw him go off as the 6/5 favorite, and then finish fifth beaten 15+ lengths. I glanced back up and he was now the 4/5 favorite. Then it occurred to me.....the racing gods are messing with me! I'm on this skid and I've made Jade's Rainbow my BET of the Day at Calder - even announced it on Facebook this morning. He stays in the race, "everyone" recognizes he's the best and is pounding him, and I'm going to stand here and watch him win as much the best without a ticket on him. Not so fast my friend! I figured to outsmart the racing gods.....I went to the teller and made him a "prime time" play, just as I had figured to......he won going away by daylight! WHOOOO HOOOO! As I said in the video and thought at the time - this was the decision that turned the day around. I proceeded to win eight of my next eleven races! And that included not one, not two, but three "Best Bets" in featured stakes races!
The opener at Santa Anita was next and Silk in Silver was Brad Free's "Best" of the day. She looked to have company on the front end, but the class drop told me she would be the speed of the speed. Jockey Rafael Bejarano quickly crossed over to the front before they hit the far turn and no one went with her - long gone just like a 1/5 should be. I missed in the 8th at Churchill Downs when Lochan didn't run a step at 5/2. But then I came back to win back-to-back-to-back turf races. While a lot of the country was dealing with rainy weather (or management that took races off the turf, go figure Calder!) we were on the grass here at Gulfstream, on the firm turf course at Santa Anita, and even at Belmont where it rained all day yesterday and had rained today, management kept two races on the inner course, most notably the 7th. In that spot I liked Mr. Jenny who had a double Beyer advantage with his last two starts. What was even more impressive was that two back it was his maiden win, and he'd improved his figure in his first try against winners......a race that typically sees a horse digress. He saved ground to the far turn and then with no where to run he moved SIX wide around the leaders. As heads straightened for the run to the wire he lengthened his stride, engaged in a brief duel and then drew off! Doubled the bet to cash for over $20. Less than five minutes later I was out west with Segway over the Santa Anita course. He was a lightly raced five-year-old who was dropping out of three straight graded events....where he'd run well (3rd, 4th, 3rd). Looked very obvious to me and I thought the 4/5 post-time odds were more than generous. Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens put him immediately on the lead and literally never moved a muscle - even when the stalkers made a run at him coming out of the turn. LONG gone with another double investment.....cashed for nearly $20 again.
Less than five minutes later I was in a box seat at Gufstream to watch the first of the two featured stakes races. This one was the Honey Ryder going a mile on the turf. Daring Kathy had only been out three times and had run big numbers in two of three, with victories in both of those. And best of all her last race win was her first try over the turf and represented a career best effort. She'd stalked the leader that day and blew by in the stretch. I figured she'd get a ground-saving trip from the rail draw, ease out on the turn and run an even better race today. The crowd must have figured the same because she was the 4/5 favorite. But in a big surprise move she shot out of the gate to immediately assume command. They looked like they were flying up front, even going a flat mile. When the teletimer showed a :45 and change half mile I knew she'd never hang on. But as they went through the turn no one was gaining ground! And as they turned for home she found another gear and spurted even farther in front to win going away by a daylight in a huge performance!
Another near-$20 payoff! WHOOO HOOOOO! I missed at Santa Anita when Valley Cat rallied from way too far off the pace to be 2nd at even money. I had several minutes to wait along the rail for the 8th and co-featured Big Drama Stakes at Gulfstream. I counted up my wins for the day and then it occurred to me.....I opened my phone up to my racing web page and I was right. The win on Daring Kathy brought my career total to 4,899. A win in this race would bring me to my 4,900th win! My pick was Dad'z Laugh. He had run second four straight times and many handicappers thought he had a case of seconditis. But I thought differently! Two of those four came behind Happy My Way who had a sensational winter here; one was a solid second behind Evolution Rocks who then won a stakes race. And the other was a closing second behind multiple graded stakes winner, win-machine Ribo Bobo. He was always finishing strongly and in all our of those efforts he'd faced very strong fractions and had not only run near the pace, but finished well. I thought today's front runners would not put up any kind of fraction like he'd seen and he'd have plenty of gas in the tank to blow by for the win. He was my Gulfstream "Best" of the day. He was breaking from the #1 hole and I anticipated a ground-saving trip to the turn, but just like Daring Kathy he rocketed right to the front. As they went midway on the turn the clock showed a :44 and change half mile and they were flying! But I knew these numbers were nothing new to Dad'z Laugh, and he continued on the wire to win by open lengths!
WHOOOOOO HOOOOO! Not only a win; not only a "Best" bet win; not only a stakes win; but my 4,900th! I had about fifteen minutes before the next race, and this was the second of three consecutive "BEST" of the day races at three different tracks. This time it was the Grade 2 Peter Pan at Belmont, which is typically used as a prep for the Grade 1 Belmont. I really liked Christophe Clement's Tonalist. He had won two races back in impressive fashion, earning a big number to break his maiden at Gulfstream. Then in his last he faced allowance company and was a close second.....behind Constitution! We all know that guy came right back to win the Grade 1 Florida Derby. What I did not know was that behind Tonalist that day was Will Take Charge, who came back to win the Grade 1 Wood Memorial! Obviously an ultra-KEY race. But what about the layoff? No worries, Tonalist had fire not one, not two, but three bullet works for his return today. My only concern was that speed had been playing well at Belmont over their muddy track and Tonalist was a strong finisher, typically sitting mid-pack or farther back. The gates opened and he broke slowly. It's ok I thought, he's a closer. But as he got his feet under him he quickly got into gear.....6th to 5th, found a seam on the rail and in less than a quarter mile he was in second. Oh, I thought, we're going to rate close off the front-runner......NO! He kept right on going and was in front by daylight as they completed the opening half mile. Now to go nine furlongs, even on a one-turn mile and an eighth course like Belmont's, a really fast Grade 1 older horse will run :47 and change, and that's fast. The teletimer showed Tonalist's half mile split in :46 and change. Oh no! I knew the stalkers, especially Todd Pletcher's Commissioner - who he had publicly remarked about him going to enjoy the closer friendly track at Belmont after running all winter over speed favoring Gulfstream - would be making their move. And here they came. They got within a length as they straightened into the stretch. But then Tonalist found yet another gear and accelerated to the wire in a dominating performance! 
My "prime time" bet netted me a return of nearly $45! I missed in the Gulfstream finale when Where's My Tail was second best at 5/1 after having no where to run when trapped on the rail through the turn and into the stretch. Now the third of the "BEST" bets, this final big bet was in the featured Decathlon Stakes at Monmouth Park. A six furlong sprint I knew that Ribo Bobo would be the favorite, but I was hoping that his last race dull effort might help inflate his price. He should have been 2/5, but maybe we'd get 3/5 or heaven help us 4/5? I knew that last effort on Florida Derby Day was easily explained away as he'd come back on a short three weeks rest and was going 6 1/2 furlongs - he much prefers today's six panels. Somehow the New Jersey crowd allowed this champion to go off at 3/2! OH MY! He rated off a hot pace while the leader's rider was scrubbing for all he was worth to implore his horse to stay in front. Meanwhile Paco Lopez was sitting still as a statute on Ribo Bobo, even looking over his shoulder as they moved around the turn to see if anyone was coming. He easily glided to the lead through the turn, but then he BLEW THE TURN! Oh no, he was some eight or nine wide and his daylight lead was now one length at best! No problem. Ribo Bobo re-broke and ran away to the wire under a hand-ride to win by two lengths!
The $5.00 tote board result posted meant I'd cash for $50! I am hot as a fire-cracker now! I headed to the car and knew I had good numbers for the win statistics, but didn't know if I'd been able to make up all the money lost through that long 1-for-12 stretch. After having pizza with Kim I watched my last three four races on Twinspires. Ghostwalking was the 3/5 favorite at Monmouth in their finale. He dueled through from the gate to the final strides before weakening in the shadow of he wire, second. Kerrilynn was 5th as the 7/5 favorite down the hill at Santa Anita. Kobe's Back was the 3/5 favorite in the Grade 3 Laz Berrera at Santa Anita and ran evenly to be 4th while jockey Kayla Stra - a good looking thing who rarely wins - was aboard the upset winner for her first graded stakes score, EVER. Good for her. And then in the finale Classy Ava wired the field easily as I'd expected at a nice 9/5 figure, allowing me to cash for $28.
So when I go back to Gulfstream for Preakness weekend I have all the winning tickets from Dad'z Laugh on, a total of $162! WHOOO HOOO! For the day I ended up with twelve wins from 30 selections, and amazing 40%. That would be a great number on any day, but considering I'd gone through a 1-for-12 run, that was truly amazing. AND I profited for the day - not much, but in the black none the less! And, as you'll see in the video below, I give all the credit to my decision to back Jade's Rainbow in that Calder off-the-turf event as my "Best" of the day there. Sometimes I'm so smart :)
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