May 17

Preakness Day

What An AMAZING DAY!

I did wonder, to be honest, before the Black-Eyed Susan Day started yesterday if there was ANY chance that I could have a racing weekend even a remotely close to how phenomenal the Derby Weekend had been.  But I told myself to think practically....what were the odds that I could win over 40% of my bets and cash for $300 in profits?  Slim, at best.  But then yesterday I scored at a 50% win rate and made over $80.  As I printed off my selection sheet for the day and went over it I truly had a very, VERY good feeling about my selections.  It was almost a scary feeling because I felt I might have a shot at coming close to my 2011 and 2012 Preakness Day performances where I won 22 and 21 races!  But I told myself to just let the day play out.  Before I left for the day I got a text from a friend of mine, Jim Anderson, who said his wife was out of town and he was thinking of going to Gulfstream, would I be there?  I was delighted that I'd have a "track buddy" for the day!  And, my oldest son Jeff was going to be at the races, at Lone Star Park in Dallas, so we'd be together, "virtually."  The day started off ok as I ran 4th at Pimlico before leaving the house and then scored with my first live bet when Pearls for Girls wired the 2nd at Belmont.  She had been Dave Liftin's "best" of the day and she was never in trouble.  I missed with the next two, and then it was time for the first of the many stakes races at Pimlico (Note:  the track had dried out to be "fast" and the turf was "good" for the day, horray!)  In the 5th, it was the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint.  I had seen Happy My Way run three of his four times at Gulfstream, and for the meet he'd won three of four, including a last out win over graded stakes winner Ribo Bobo in the Sir Shackleton on Florida Derby Day.  Ribo Bobo had come out of that to wire a Monmouth stakes race, making it a KEY race.  I tripled the bet, and he was an EASY winner going wire to wire as the 3/5 favorite. 

I collected nearly $25.  The race had just gone official when they were off at Churchill Downs for my first selection there.  Barry Shortpants had disappointed last time out, but today he was a Churchill Downs 40% Club play as trainer Gary Simms wins an amazing 67% with his runners making a third start off a layoff.  Barry had trouble at the start and lost several lengths; then was wide into the turn and had to duel all the way to the wire.  But in the end he was up in time at a short 2/5 price.  That made two in a row, and my second win in a row!  Belmont was next on the list and Misconnect was a classic Todd Pletcher move. She had won as MUCH the best in her maiden special victory last fall, then he gave her several months off.  Today she was fresh off the break and in an entry level allowance.  The crowd made her the 3/5 favorite and as they spun out of the turn not only was she behind horses but she seemed to not have any acceleration.  She shifted three wide with 1/8th of a mile to go and then she found her running shoes......she blew by the trio of leaders and was drawing clear late to score - three in a row and my fourth win of the day!  I filmed my first video of the day and got a text from Jim that he was just arriving.  Back to Churchill Downs and I liked Runaway's Sis who had dueled through insane fractions in her first try against winners last out.  Today's drop in class should see her get a more comfortable trip I thought.  She dueled on the inside and was just held on.....that makes five wins. 

Missed at Belmont and then Jim came.  We both bet Ageless in The Very One Stakes at Pimlico - a turf sprint with a full field of thirteen fillies and mares.  Watching on the monitor inside at Gulfstream there was just a mass of runners heading into the turn and I could not see the #7 anywhere.  Midway on the turn I saw a rider checking his mount, yes, that's me!  But at least I now had found her.  He was hugging the rail and as heads turned for home he still seemed to have plenty of horse under him.  A seam opened up and she accelerated through.  She made the lead with a sixteenth to go and drew off with authority! 

WHOOO HOOO!  Paid a nice $6.60 and I cashed for over $15.  As soon as they crossed the finish line Jim and I headed out to the grandstand as they were loading into the gate for the 2nd at Gulfstream.  I thought that Starship Amanda might be my "upset of the day."  She was listed at 10/1 in the program - but when the betting opened she was the 6/5 favorite!  Luckily by post time she'd floated up to 2/1.  She dueled on the outside to mid-stretch and then edged clear to score. 

Jim was so excited that he'd won multiple races in a row :)  I was happy my picks were hitting, and when the identical $6.60 payoff came up I matched my Ageless score with another $15 and change!  After running second at Arlington I turned the page to the next set of selections and noted that I'd already won SEVEN races!  WOW, I am off to a sizzling start!  How long is this going to go on?  Jim and I watched Belmont's Paradise Creek Stakes going seven furlongs on the turf and as my pick Chart Topper led them into the turn I said to him, "I probably should not say this out loud, but he's NEVER lost when leading after the first call.....like he did today."  Jinxed it.....sigh.  Faded to third at 4/5.  But then the "magic" was back as I won not one, not two, not three, no....FOUR in a row!  At Arlington Gimmeadrink was heading into the gate just as they were loading into the gate at Gulfstream.  So we headed out to the rail and watched Longer Terms Doug make a four-wide, sweeping move to the front turning for home and prove much the best.  I was happy that he had floated up to 3/5 at post time.  He'd been 4/5 through the betting but with five minutes to go someone bombed him and he was 1/9!  As we walked in I found the Arlington monitor and there was #2 - Gimmeadrink pulling clear by six widening lengths.  His price ws a much better 9/5.  The two tickets were going to get me $45 back!  

While the race in Chicago had been finishing they were off at Santa Anita.  I moved down the line of TVs and found the correct monitor, just in time to see my pick, L T Reckless drawing off under a hand ride while the jockey kept looking back under his arm for someone to challenge him.  Nope, no one, my third in this streak of winners!  And as soon as that went official they were in the gate for the Chick Lang Stakes at Pimlico.  Let me back up for a minute here.....when I cashed the tickets on Starship Amanda, Ageless, and Runaway's Sis I had noted that the payoff came to $46.  I made this sequence of four bets and as I got my change I thought that the teller had short-changed me $5.  But I wasn't sure as I was no positive the about what I'd seen or the total of my bets.  So, they're off at Pimlico where I liked Meadowood.  He was one of a couple of sophomores who were lightly raced and unbeaten, but what I liked about him was that his two wins had both come sprinting - something the others could not say.  AND he had Javier Castellano on board.  He was rating off the speed of the favorite at 5/1 on the rail.  They turned for home and the chalk opened up by two lengths.  But then Castellano tipped Meadowood off the rail and once he saw daylight he burst to the front and won going away!  The $12.20 payoff was great.  My phone rang and it was Jeff saying what a good score that was and that he'd doubled the bet to collect over $60.  Good for you I told him.  I made a video recap of these four races and noted my good fortune to be collecting over $30 on this win.  But as I started down the steps to go cash and gathered my tickets I found that the Meadowood ticket was NOT a $5 ticket, I too had put $10 to win on him!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO! 

I cashed for $61 on that one and for a grand total of almost $115 on the four scores.  As Jim and I discussed our winnings I felt a little bad because he told me he didn't have the nice score.  I knew he wasn't betting every horse on my sheet, but I thought he WAS betting all the Pimlico races.  Then he pointed out how I had bolded and marked in orange font all the Pimlico races, but that the Chick Lang was NOT - it looked at a casual glance to be just another one of my selections.  Sorry....but hey, it's right there in black and white!  I missed with three in a row - shocking - though I was in all three.  At Churchill I was moving strongly but was four-wide and then stopped; at Calder I was on the lead in mid-stretch and gave way; and then at Gulfstream Discreet Ed recovered well from a bad break to be third, just too late.  Again, coming off multiple losses I wondered about how the rest of the day would go.  I had started counting my wins and was already at eleven.  With about 30 picks, I was guessing, I'm already at "my percentage" - 30%.  But, I thought I had several REALLY good picks left.  And sure enough, just like the last time when I missed the winners, I came through to score another four straight times!  The first in this sequence was at Churchill Downs where Liberal Spin was the 3/2 favorite, but dueled to the wire and was JUST up in time.  Then at Arlington I had Silky Sami.  I liked him because he was a six-time winner at Arlington, and he was 10-for-31 at today's 6 furlong distance, while only 3-for-17 at all others.  But as the horses came out of the far turn and into the stretch he wasn't even IN THE TV PICTURE!  Where's Sami?  Then I see the #7 coming around the bend and gathering momentum.  At most tracks the fact he was about 8 lengths off the lead at this point would render his chances pretty hopeless.  But there is something about Arlington's synthetic surface that allows nearly any closer to make up ground in giant chunks through the final furlong.  And Sami had a full head of steam.  He was off the rail, but the rider wisely did not take him five wide to clear the field.  He was weaving through traffic and as he approached the top four at the 16th pole he kept his horse straight, split rivals and was clear going away at the wire!  WHOOO HOOOO.  He paid $5.60 and I'd doubled the bet.  With the Liberal Spin win I now had over $50 worth of winning tickets in my pocket.  The next winner in the sequence was a great job of handicapping, if I do say so myself!  Preciou Mem was 3/1 in the 7th at Monmouth, a six furlong sprint in nw1x allowance company.  As I looked at his pp's I noticed that in April 2013 he came off a layoff to run in a turf sprint at Atlantic City, lost, and then shipped her to run in a six furlong dirt sprint, and WON.  Today he was coming in second off a layoff, where was he last time?  That's right....running in a turf sprint at Atlantic City!  Uh oh!  add in that trainer Willard Thompson is a Monmouth Park 40% Club member when Paco Lopez rides.....that is an amazing 56% win angle!  Right to the front, and while he wasn't daylight in front on the wire, he was clearly the winner!  The tote board showed a $6.00 pay-out, which meant I'd be cashing for $45!  Now I have nearly $100 in winning tickets in my pocket!The fourth in this sequence was the Grade 3 American Stakes at Santa Anita.  One of the best turf milers in the country over the last two years - besides 2x Horse of the Year Wise Dan - has been Obviously, who's been running them off their feet out west.  He is a front-running fool and can set sizzling fractions and keep on going.  But in his last three starts last fall he just didn't look like himself, but he did run better when third in the BC Mile behind Wise Dan.  Today he was coming off a layoff but had been working bullets.....the reports were he looked like "the old Obviously."  But, today he'd have t deal with the new kid in town, Winning Prize, who had won three straight graded stakes this winter at Santa Anita, also on the front end.  So I listed Obviously as my double-bet selection thinking he just might out run his rival who might try to sit off the pace today.  But when I looked at the board, Winning Prize had scratched!  Now there was NO OTHER SPEED in the race.  I doubled my own bet to make Obviously "PRIME TIME!"  Right to the front and when the second place horse was being asked for everything on the turn and Obviously was still under a hand ride I knew I was long gone! 

Though he was the 3/5 favorite I was delighted to take the nearly $35 and more importantly to have been right to up the bet!  I was very disappointed when my "best" at Belmont gave way in the final fifty yards after leading by daylight in mid-stretch, and then was 4th at Monmouth.  But the 5th at Santa Anita was Brad Free's "best" of the day.  I doubled the bet on Jovita's Tuffy.  He was being moved up confidently from 3L runners for a $16K tag, where he'd won convincingly to an open $20K spot first off the claim.  His connections must think he's got some talent.  But as they turned for home he was well back.  Like Silky Sami he found his best stride and was FLYING through the lane and was just up in time! He paid a nice $5.80 and I cashed for another near $30.  Not I'm up to SIXTEEN wins - maybe I AM going to get twenty!  At Churchill I had a true UPSET SPECIAL when Deep Thought went off at 18/1!  He was third on the turn into the stretch over the turf, but faded to 8th.....exciting for a few moments.  Then it was back to Pimlico and another stakes for three-year-olds.  This was the Sir Barton Stakes.  I liked Class Leader.....while everyone in the field - or at least all the contenders - had hit the 80 Beyer level, this guy had run back-to-back 80 figures while winning two in a row, before being 4th last out in the Grade 3 Illinois Derby behind a starter in today's Preakness Stakes later on the card - and earning an identical 86 Beyer to his previous winning number. The cut back to 8 1/2 furlongs here, the drop in class, and the paired figures I thought made him tough.  Like Silky Sami and Jovita's Tuffy, Class Leader had a lot of work to do as they spun out of the turn.  I was just walking in from outside where I'd lost at Gulfstream and I saw the final 16th of a mile where it was a head bobbing finish.  I was pretty sure the #10, me, was on the inside and I'd been caught by another.  But when they showed the slow-motion from mid-stretch I could see that the horse that WAS caught was the #9....who was the winner on a head bob? 

That's right, that's ME!  WHOOO HOOOO - my 17th score of the day.  Cashed for another near $30.  I was outrun at Arlington and then rattled off another set of three winners in the next four races, man what an amazing day!  I had talked on the phone with Jeff and he'd told me he'd called one of his buddies who comes to Gulfstream to tell him, "my Dad is on fire with his picks!"  :)  At Belmont Sayler's Creek was trapped behind horses on the turf to mid-stretch, but shifted out and when he saw nothing but green grass he blew by the leaders to win - rack up another near $15;  missed at Santa Anita before at Churchill Downs Treasury Bill was far back early, then ralliedfour-wide out of the turn and then blew by to win going away!  And finally, a nice win at Monmouth.  More Than A Party was the 3/1 third choice in the program but I was doubling the bet, looking for a nice score.  I noticed in his past performances that this filly had shown high early speed in three of her four career starts, the only time she wasn't on the lead was when she broke poorly in a turf sprint experiment.  There was next to no speed in here AND her trainer, Edwin Broome was a Monmouth 40% Club member with Paco Lopez on - who was riding today.  Just as I thought, right to the front and LONG GONE!  The $6.80 payoff netted me over $30!  I was disappointed when Hey Leroy was just narrowly beaten (2nd) in the Grade 2 Dixie at Pimlico - he'd been my upset of the day on Florida Derby Day paying over $20, and I'd doubled the bet....and today Mr. Nelson had $50 across the board....so he cashed on the place and show payoffs to profit.  And then we walked outside for the feature here at Gulfstream.  It was a $75K stakes, the Flying Pidgeon going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  But, it featured the return of multiple Grade 1 winner, Breeders' Cup Champion Little Mike.  There were two questions about him.....first, since he'd been my "Bet of the Day" two years ago on Florida Derby Day he had always seemed to be inconsistent enough that when I had him he didn't run, and when I ignored him - especially at a nice price, he won.  Last year he just hadn't looked the same winning only one of seven - but that came at better than 7/1, so you would have profited by betting him every time.  Second, coming off a long layoff, he obviously was targeting bigger races down the road.  But then I read online and interesting story.  His owners, I knew, were from Parkland, just up the Sawgrass about 15 minutes from our house.  But six months ago the husband had become the trainer....and he was training multiple runners, AND winning at a near 20% clip here at Gulfstream.  He was quoted as saying they were targeting a Grade 1 on Belmont Day, but that Little Mike had been working great and he thought he'd "...run a huge race...." today.  Toss in the fact that Little Mike was a Horse-for-the-Course with five wins from seven starts and the LONE SPEED, and I made him the "Prime Time - Best of the Day" here.  Sure enough, right to the front, setting a comfortable pace.  The stalkers moved on him on the turn....was he fit enough to keep going?  With a flick of the wrist jockey Elvis Trujillo shifted him into high gear and he was quickly gone....winning under wraps!  W

HOOOO HOOOOO - AGAIN!  Win #21, and I collected nearly $35!  I lost two stakes races when Kauai Katie, again, just didn't look like she did as a star three-year-old, 4th at 2/5 and then Always Kitten didn't fire in the Kertana.  So it looked to come down to California Chrome in the Preakness to get me my 22nd win and tie my all-time greatest day at the races.  Jeff had called me many times over the last week and asked how much I liked him and I always said I had to handicap the field because I'd been AGAINST him in his last four starts.....now was NOT the time to jump on at a short price unless he truly was as good as advertised.  Three things persuaded me to not only make him the pick, but make him the BET of the DAY!  First, earlier this week Millie Ball on HRTV had noted that California Chrome's Derby speed figure was slower than his last two wins in graded stakes at Santa Anita.  So, she said, she had looked it up and discovered that EVERY Derby winner who's Beyer had declined off his last race prep had come back to WIN THE PREAKNESS - with one exception, who ran second.  She hypothesized that this was because they won with something left for the Preakness.  And, she finished, in looking at the race, that was what had happened with California Chrome.  So as I had handicapped the Preakness I went back and watched the race carefully.  Not only had he not been asked to run through the final furlong, the pace of the Derby had NOT been demanding.  He had cruised along with the leaders, without ever having to give 100%, opened up willingly as much the best to be clear by five in the stretch, then was under wraps to the wire.  Indeed, he was a fresh horse who truly was at the top of the his class.  Secondly, I wondered in the Derby about his habit of not breaking sharply.  In a 19-horse field he would not have the opportunity to recover....today against just nine rivals that was not an issue.  Finally, for the Derby he was running out of California for the first time and going further than he'd ever gone.....could he do either, or both?  He had, with ease.  So shipping to Baltimore was no worry, and having gone 10 furlongs, today's 9 1/2 would not be a problem.  Looked TONS the best to me.  And then I read that his connections were very, VERY confident.  They broke out of the gate and the anticipated front runner, Social Inclusion from Gulfstream sat off the pace.  So Chrome was about three off the dueling leaders to the far turn.....he dueled with the emerging pace setter through the turn and had his number, but then here came Social Inclusion to present a new, fresh challenge.  He dueled with him to the 1/8th pole and put him away.  And now here came the late-running Ride On Curlin with all the momentum.  Jockey Victor Espinoza asked Chrome to finish strongly and he did to win by open lengths!  This, to me was his best effort yet....he looked like a champion today when taking the full measure of a sharp pace to get to the front and then fending off a fresh stalker AND having enough left to win clearly from a strong closer. 

I had $50 to win on him and that would be worth $75!  I talked to Jeff and he had the winner, the exacta, and the trifecta.  It was a glorious finish to the day.  Jim and I walked out to the parking lot together and he wished me luck on my two late picks to maybe hit an all-time high for wins in a day, but it wasn't to be.  So for the day I'd hit on an AMAZING 22 of 42 selections, that is 52% my friend!  And when I got home I added all the payoffs up.  I figured I'd won, but so many short prices and then there were two $20 losses at Belmont :(  But the bottom line was:

40 / 22 - 4 - 2      Bet:  $440 / Collected:  $606.50

PROFIT FOR THE DAY:  $156

 

Put those numbers together with Black-Eyed Susan Day and you get:

52 / 28 - 5 - 4     Profit:  $240

Those numbers compare very closely to those from Derby weekend.  And I really enjoyed having Jim out at the races to have someone appreciate how well I did - and even better that he was betting my picks and winning!  I was just ecstatic about the day and the weekend.....but unlike Derby weekend where there was no chance of a "let-down" on Sunday when racing went back to "normal" I do have six picks tomorrow at Churchill Downs. Can I sustain this amazing momentum.....doesn't seem likely, but hey, you never know!

Preakness Day Video Recap - Part 1

 

Preakness Day Video Recap - Part 2

 

Preakness Day At Pimlico