May 16

Black-Eyed Susan Day

What An AWESOME Day!

I had my doubts about the way today would go, but what a great it turned out to be!  I was able to get the past performances for today's 13 race card on Tuesday morning, so I sent hours - and I mean hours - analyzing every horse slated to run in the seven stakes events, an then handicapped the entire card.  I finished by mid-morning Wednesday and added selections from Gulfstream, and of course my Churchill Downs selections.  Then Thursday as I watched the first segment of racing on HRTV they were broadcasting from Pimlico, and the first topic of conversation was the forecast for monsoon like conditions on Friday!  Seriously?  SIX of my handicapping selections were or turf races on Friday.  And my "BET of the Day" for today was in the Jim McKay Turf Sprint.  Sure enough by Friday morning it was pouring in Baltimore, and it was rainy here in South Florida as well.  My plan had been to go to Gulfstream and play the races, much as I had on Oaks Day two weeks ago.  But when I checked on the program changes both of my selections at Gulfstream were scratched (one on the turf, one simply scratched); all racing was off the turf in Maryland, meaning I'd lot five of the six selections.  So what had started out as two full pages of selections was reduced to just twelve selections with 45 minutes to over an hour in between races.  So I decided not to go out and stand around....rather I'd play the races online, watch HRTV's telecast, and handicap more seriously for Saturday's Preakness card.  Thursday night my buddy Jeff Nelson had come over to give me money to bet over the weekend.  I had taken money for him on Derby weekend, and as much as I'd tried to convince him to spread his money out he put it all on the Derby.....and lost.  So I printed out the two days' worth of selections and highlighted the races I thought were his best investments.  Once we were done he had five races on his list and he handed over multiple hundreds for me to invest.  Well, with me betting online for Friday I needed to use my funds in my account on Ben's Cat for him.  I figured if he lost I'd use Jeff's cash as my withdrawal for the week and if Ben's Cat won, which I really thought he would, I would take the $40 in winnings out of my racing fund and keep the winnings in my account online. 

So the racing kicked off at 1 pm, finally, and I ran third with Big Lute in the "Lady's Legends" race - featuring retired female jockeys.  I led into the lane as the 4/5 favorite but weakened.  One interesting sidelight was that a runner on the inside surged to the front at the 16th pole and then the retired female jockey stood up in the irons, thinking she'd passed the finish line!  Another two horses blew by her in the final 16th before she realized what had just happened.  I felt bad for her because they kept showing it over and over again on TV....not to mention the bettor who'd lost their money...yikes.  It as another full hour until I had my next pick, and it was in the Skipat Stakes where I thought 13x winner Winning Image would gun to the front and never look back.  I tripled the bet.  She went off at a generous 8/5.  She went to the front, but she dueled into the lane instead of being loose on the lead.  In the final 16th she finally gave way to be third.  It was another full hour until my third pick - a LONG day of non-racing, so glad I wasn't at Gulfstream.....two and a half hours and only two selections, both losing!  As they were heading to the gate for the Rollicking Stakes at Pimlico, the first two-year-old stakes of the summer, Kim got home from school.  And she sat down to watch the race.  I did not like the favorite, Hootenanny who was the 3/5 chalk.  I liked Governmentshutown who was 5/2, then 2/1 and finally lef the gate as the 6/5 second choice.  He had debuted here and ran third, behind two he would face today.  But unlike most who were running in this stakes, he'd been out a second time.  And he'd earned a field-best 82 speed figure drawing off to win impressively.  That told me that the stretch to today's five furlongs from his 4 1/2 furlong win would be no problem.  And the barn's 36%, $3.01 ROI with two-year-olds was a big positive.  He broke from the rail and in the first quarter mile he tried to come up the inside to challenge the favorite, but was shut off and had to check hard - that's not good going only 5 furlongs!  He regained momentum and was running again through the turn, only to be shut off again and lost a couple of lengths.  Man, can the trip get any worse?  But in spite of the abbreviated distance and dual trouble incident Governmentshutdown was not done......he hit another gear, swung three wide into the turn and blew by the leader as they both left the favorite in the mud behind them!  My first win of the day, and I accepted congratulations from my wife :) 

Less than ten minutes later we were in the gate at Churchill Downs.  This was a Maiden Special event and State Visit looked very tough to beat.  I anticipated the heavy betting and she was far from a mortal lock, so I just went in for the minimum.  But she was easily best and suddenly I'm 2-for-four on the day.....I told Kim she had to stay right there on the couch, she was my good luck charm.  But instead she headed off for an afternoon nap.  Could I win without the good luck charm?  I'd soon find out because the very next race at Churchill was my first double investment in Louisville.  I liked Oh Wise One who was the lone multiple winner on the turf in the field.  Brett Calhoun had a 31% win rate at a big $4.95 ROI with jockey Robbie Albarado.....looked really hard to go past.  And he was, literally.....right to the front and never had anyone within two lengths of him all the way around the course!  WHOOO HOOOO!  Cashed for $21.  And now it was time for the Jim McKay.  What to do about Ben's Cat?  Yesterday on HRTV they had talked about this race and Ben's Cat on the dirt.  But handicapper Jeff Siegel pointed out that he was actually more formidable on the main track because (a) he'd face many fewer rivals and (b) his record on the main track was 9-for-13, including 3-for-4 on off-going!  As a 25-time winner he was listed on my selection sheet as a $50 investment regardless of the surface.  As post time was approaching I kept wondering about my bet.  I'd written he was the "BET of the Weekend."  But after I'd handicapped the Preakness card I'd listed California Chrome as a $50 win bet in the Preakness.  At the ten minutes to post mark I was ready to bet.  What to do?  His odds had now floated from 1/9, to 1/5, then 2/5 - and that was stealing - and up now to 3/5.  Then it occurred to me.....on Oaks/Derby weekend I had planned to bet $100 on Wise Dan but Untappable was my "BET of the Weekend" - then I'd upped Untappable to $200 to win; so using that logic I asked myself was Ben's Cat a more likely winner than California Chrome; and I answered without question, YES.  So I bet $100 to win (matching Mr. Nelson's bet - which is a rare thing for me!).  As post time approached I was a little concerned because both HRTV analysts said that while Ben's Cat was a likely winner, the #2 horse was the LONE speed and if he got out to an easy lead that would either mean Ben would have to run faster early to keep him honest, which would compromise his late kick, or he'd have too much to do if that one was loose on an easy lead, especially at five furlongs.  So my eyes were glued to that one as they left the gate....the gates sprung open and the #2 stumbled slightly and then was squeezed back as the #1 took early command.  Too bad, so sad :)  Now Ben's Cat was stalking a runner that was highly unlikely to wire the field.  As heads turned for home he glided up to the leader and in the final furlong surged past to draw clear by two widening lengths! 

WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!  He paid a more-than-fair $2.80 which meant Mr. Nelson and I would both cash for $4.80.  We exchanged text messages and he was most happy, as was I with my four wins in a row.  After missing in the 4th at Churchill Kim and I planned to head to Outback for dinner.  But when she was ready it was moments to post time of the featured Grade 1 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes.  So we stayed to watch it.  When I handicapped the race my first impression was that it was much "softer" than the Kentucky Oaks where most of the star sophomore fillies had shown up.  But there were several rising stars in this line up.  Still, the lone graded winner in the field was a MULTIPLE graded stakes winner from Todd Pletcher's barn - Stopchargingmaria; and Javier Castellano was riding.  Duh, how hard can this be?  Unlike all the others in here she also had already won at this distance, in a graded stakes.  She'd not run well in her 3-year-old debut in the Grade 2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream, but I forgave that because she was coming off a layoff and was facing the very talented, but ill-fated Onlyforyou that day.  She had run a decent third in the Grade 3 Fantasy at Oaklawn last out, and the winner had come back to set the pace in the Kentucky Oaks.  I thought she'd move forward today against a much softer field.  She was the mild 3/1 program favorite, but I was aware she'd be bet down. But NO....she left the gate at an huge overlaid price of 7/2....not even the favorite.  She sat in mid-pack to the far turn, accelerated to collar the leader in mid-stretch and the two of them dueled to the final 100 yards before 'Maria's class showed and she edged clear! 

The $9.60 payoff was a tremendous "gift" from my fellow-handicappers....wow, I cashed for nearly $50!  We left for dinner, which was delicious, but I so enjoyed it as I celebrated my three big stakes scores at Pimlico!  When we got home I turned on the DVR and watched the running of the Miss Preakness Stakes and the Grade 3 Pimlico Special.  Jo Jo Warrior, who I thought would wire the Miss Preakness trailed the field before rallying belatedly to be third; then in the Special, Moreno should have been loose on an easy lead I thought.  But instead he sat just off a longshot leader, made his move into the lane and looked to be poking his head in front when Revolutionary - who I'd seen run at Gulfstream - came flying from over 20 lengths back to score.  Two picks left, both from Churchill.  The eighth was a turf sprint and I liked The Absolute One.  He had just won a turf sprint and was being sent out by trainer Tom Amoss.  He is a member of the Churchill Downs 40% Club and has won with an amazing 50% of all his turf sprinters over the last two years.  I doubled the bet and hoped to get 9/5, maybe 2/1 if I was lucky.  For some reason the crowd let him go at 7/2!  He gunned right to the front, but was joined by an 8/1 longshot and they dueled into the lane through a wicked :21.0 opening quarter.  Neither gave an inch through the stretch dual, but finally inside the final fifty yards The Absolute One poked his head in front to score. 

The $9.00 payoff let me cash for nearly $50, again....I am having a great afternoon!  In the last race on my sheet Wholelotaroyalty was the 1/1 favorite at Churchill and dueled through another sizzling opening quarter in :21 and change before weakening to be second.  Still, on the day I finished with six wins from just twelve selections - a remarkable 50% win percentage; cashed on my "BET of the Weekend" and won multiple races at Churchill!  Best of all was the profits totaled to well over $80.  What a great day indeed it turned out to be!

 

Black-Eyed Susan Day Highlight Video

Crowd Photos