May 2

Friday May 2 - Kentucky Oaks Day

What an A-W-E-S-O-M-E  day today was!  I had handicapped the Kentucky Oaks card on Wednesday and then Thursday I got the Daily Racing Form and looked for races from around the country to add to the wagering menu, but tried to be very selective.  I did not want to have the feature of the day be the Oaks card / experience, do well there, and then not have a good day because I wanted to bet other races around the country.  When I finished handicapping for the day I turned my attention to the Kentucky Derby and found my best bet of the day on Saturday was Wise Dan, and had written that I was going to bet $100 to win on him.  Which created a dilemma.....I had picked Untappable as the BET of the Weekend and had written that I'd bet $50 to win.  Now that I planned to put $100 on Wise Dan what did that mean for betting the Oaks?  So on Thursday throughout my walk - and through conversations with both my son Jeff and my buddy Jeff Nelson - I talked about maybe making a bet bigger than any I'd made in ten years.  I wasn't certain I would do it, but by the time Friday morning came around I felt comfortable enough to take two hundred dollars specifically for my Oaks bet.  I stopped by Cypress Bay High to pick up betting money from Mr. Nelson and then made my way to Gulfstream.  My first bet had come at 10:30 am while I was enroute and when I got there I discovered I'd won the race!  Whooo hooo, a good way to start the day.  I went to the windows and made my bet on the 4th, and made a $50 bet on Untappable in the Oaks.  My plan was to bet $50 at a time and if I felt comfortable after the first $100 I would keep going.  I missed in the 4th when I thought Song for You would wire the field, but instead she was rated off the lead in 4th to the stretch, then came up empty.  My next bet was a "Prime Time" play in the Grade 1 La Troienne.  I thought the field could be reduced to three main contenders.  Unlimited Budget had been unbeaten at this time last year and was my pick in the Oaks.  She ran third and had not won since.  After a long break she came back at Gulfstream with a poor first effort, but I bet her back in the Grade 3 Rampart on Florida Derby Day and she ran very well taking the lead in deep stretch before being caught in the final strides by a 40-1 outsider.  A much improved effort, comparable to her best as a sophomore;  She had run down Devil's Cave in that race, but in the Grade 2 Sabin - the prep for the Rampart - Devil's Cave had set a Gulfstream track record in wiring the field.  That was significant because the Sabin was at today's 8 1/2 furlong distance, while the Rampart had been at nine furlongs.  She was a threat to steal it.  And the third main contender was On Fire Baby.  She had won two stakes here at Churchill as a juvenile; then last year as a four-year-old she'd entered this very race off a win in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and lost by a head.  She looked to track the leaders and if at her best she would win from a pressing trip.  I settled on On Fire Baby for two reasons - first, she was a Horse-for-the-Course with a 5/2-1-1 record locally, and second she was the only Grade 1 winner in the field.  Devil's Cave went to the front, but as I'd expected, she had to run faster early because of non-contending speed types, but she was clear down the backstretch.  On Fire Baby was tracking her and Unlimited Budget was not far away.  As they spun out of the turn jockey Rosie Napravnik asked for 'Baby's run and she challenged, dueled and then put Devil's Cave away.  Unlimited Budget came up empty in the stretch and On Fire Baby drew off as much the best! 

The winning payoff led to a $50+ payoff for me and I was two-for-three to start the day!  Next up was the Grade 3 Twin Spires Turf Sprint.  I liked Sum of the Parts who was typically a front-runner, but two back when breaking from an outside post had rated off the pace to win a turf sprint stakes.  But when the gates opened, Napravnik shot to the front, led to the top of the lane and gave way - 6th.  The first of my non-Churchill races came up next, I was at Belmont for their 2nd, a non-winners of two lifetime and I had a triple investment on Painted Poney.  This filly was the DRF's Dave Liftin "best" of the day and I whole-heartedly agreed.  Dropping out of an open allowance event to this first-time-tagged spot, AND in conditioned company for the first time, she looked long gone on the lead.  Sure enough, she broke on top and was clear to the turn.  When the opening fraction was posted at a pokey :24.4 I knew I was home free.....she romped as MUCH the best and I cashed for another near $25.  I missed in four straight afterwards.....an allowance at Churchill where Avicii went off at 11/1 and was a good third; the Affirmed Success at Belmont where Be Bullish and his entry-mate were outfinished - second behind the favorite in a very close finish;  at Gulfstream Sapphire Blue tracked the leader over the turf course to the top of the stretch then gave way, 6th; and finally in the Grade 3 Eight Belles, unbeaten Our Amazing Rose tracked the leaders to the top of the stretch and then gave way to be sixth.  I had gone back and forth between here and Fiftyshadesofgold, who had been entered in the Oaks until switching last weekend, and that one won at $6.20.  Throughout this period I had made my last two bets on Untappable and now held four $50 win tickets....and I felt very comfortable with the bet, and very confident.  I was a half an hour from leaving but I had four live races still to watch before heading home in time to watch the Oaks on the big screen TV.  At Belmont I doubled the bet on Easy Living.  She had debuted on the turf for Christophe Clement but was making her second start today on dirt.  She looked much the best if able to transfer that first-out effort to the main track, and as a daughter of Derby winner Big Brown I thought she looked an easy winner.  It was anything but easy as she dueled the length of the stretch with a 6/1 outsider, and trailed most of the way before forging to the front in the shadow of the wire.....my fourth win of the day!  Less than five minutes later I was making my way to my seat in a box seat on the finish line at Gulfstream to watch Tricky Woman run in a turf sprint in maiden claiming company.  She was 4/1 as I made my way outside and I felt that was a juicy price considering the barn was not only a 20% winner in turf sprints, but more importantly had a gigantic $12.89 ROI with those kinds.  But as I sat down her price plummeted to 6/5!  Right to the front, dueled through the turn and then pulled away to win by daylight!  FIVE wins on the day.  I missed at Churchill in the Edgewood Stakes when Little Journey was a solid, but non-threatening third at 4/1.  And just before leaving Tour the City drew off as my double-investment at Calder to bring in another near $15.  I was about $20 ahead as I walked out the doors to the car and as expected the day, the weekend, and honestly probably the bottom line for the Churchill Downs project rested on the outcome of the featured Kentucky Oaks. As I drove home my one race from Santa Anita went off.  It was the listed Ultrafleet Stakes, a 6 1/2 furlong sprint down the turn course on the mountainside.  I love to bet races down the hill and it is almost always the runner with winning experience on that unique course that scores.  No exception today as On The Backstreets was 2-for-2 down the mountain, including a stakes win.  She was also DRF's Brad Free's best of the day.  She tracked the speed to the where they crossed the main track, crossed over to the be in the clear on the outside and ran away from the field like they were tied to the rail......whoooo hoooo, win number seven!

I had planned on betting Normandy Invasion in the Grade 2 Alysheba as I really thought Will Take Charge was vulnerable today, especially at this shorter 8 1/2 furlongs.  But Normandy Invasion scratched.  I considered briefly betting Will Take Charge because there didn't look to be a legitimate upsetter in the race, but I thought better of it because this was one of those cases where I listed the favorite as my second choice NOT because I thought he was the second most likely to win, but because he was vulnerable but looked good on paper.  Sure enough he did not fire, didn't even hit the board and the winner paid over $18.  Finally it was time for the Oaks......I had talked with Jeff on the way home and he told me he was sorry but he'd bet on Todd Pletcher's My Miss Sophia.  I said it was a good value bet because I was sure Untappable would be no better than 3/5, and probably would be 2/5 after being listed at 4/5 in the program.  But as I sat down to watch the broadcast she was a HUGE, overlaid 6/5 while they were in the post parade.  I could not believe my good fortune.  As they left the gate she was even money, which was still nearly doubled what I had anticipated.  Despite breaking from post 13 she was quickly in striking position and I was very calm and confident.  She tracked the longshot leader and My Miss Sophia to the far turn.  'Sophia took the lead and Untappable came to her as heads turned for home.  Now, for the first time - even as Untappable looked to be moving to 'Sophia - the weight of the bet got to me and my heart was racing.  But just as I'd expected, she inhaled that one and was quickly clear by the time they reached the furlong marker.  I knew I was home free and now my excitement was not anxiety but anticipation of a HUGE payoff.  She crossed the line MUCH the best, and my handicapping opinion was justified. 

Prices were posted and it was an even $4.00, which meant that my $200 bet was going to be doubled and I'd cash tomorrow for a huge $400 payoff!  I was ecstatic!  I had Kim take my picture with my FOUR winning tickets as the showed Untappable come down the lane....

What a great day - I was eight-for-sixteen for the day and made a profit of $215.  I was guaranteed to be a winner on the weekend, no matter how Derby Day turned out.  We met our new daughter-in-law Lauren for dinner out (she'd been staying with us since Wednesday night) and it was a celebratory evening to be sure.  Here are some photos of from Churchill Downs on their big Friday.....

Oaks Day Video Recap

 

 

Oaks Day At Churchill Downs