Ten Years Of Handicapping: May 3

Kentucky Derby Day

Another GREAT Day! I could not have asked for a better day than today to follow up the HUGE day on Oaks Friday. In fact I was concerned that today would be a let down and put a damper on the weekend after such a big handicapping day yesterday. But the way everything fell together, it was perfect. The way the Derby Day adventure did NOT make me believe that such a day would happen however........

It all started when on Friday morning I stopped to get the Daily Racing Form and handicap for Saturday like I did for Friday - very selectively. But there were no Forms! Vinny, the owner of the small newspaper stand where I go to get the Form was furious (said he was told no one in the area had them, and he'd lose $800 today because of it). I wondered about downloading cards and I even looked at the entries. But I just didn't see anything, and honestly my plan had been to do some handicapping between races on Oaks Day. I decided maybe I'd buy a Form at Gulfstream on Friday or just download a card or two and handicap Friday night. They did have Forms at Gulfstream, but I was more busy than I thought so I didn't buy it there; and then we met our daughter-in-law Lauren for dinner, and that wasn't until after 8 pm; didn't get home until about 9:30 pm. This morning I looked at the Gulfstream entries and considered who Ron Nicoletti liked, but the races I thought I might bet on did not fit into our schedule. Kim and I decided that we'd head out around noon, which would get us there a little before the 5th race, where I had a bet. Then we'd go to lunch, as there was a 40 minute break to the 6th. I could watch the 6th during lunch and it would be another 45 minute break until the 7th, my first added investment of the day. From that point on it was almost an hour between races AND the forecast was for heavy thunderstorms right about that time - so we planned to leave right after the 7th. I had a bet in he second, and just like on Oaks Day, I won the first bet of the day when No Surrender went wire-to-wire, despite pace pressure from gate to wire, and I was off to a quick start. No bet in the third, and as we walked in I saw on the monitor that the fourth was just going official. I looked at the monitor as we got closer in the breezeway and I saw that the winner was #2 - hey, wait, I'm pretty sure that's my horse.....and then I noted the final odds, 8-1, oh my! I looked at my analysis sheet and #2 Faerie Queen was 10/1 in the program but I'd selected here because she had a solid turf record (5/1-1-2) with speed figures that made her as competitive as any of the short-priced runners. I thought she might be a good price because her last looked like a poor effort, but it had come off a layoff and was on the dirt. The switch back to the turf would help AND she had a best of 65 bullet work. The payoff came up and it was an huge $19.20, meaning I would cash on my second straight bet and this time for nearly $50! WHOOOO HOOOOOO! Kim and I walked out to the rail and found a guy to take our Derby Day photo in our fashionable outfits.

It was only about 25 minutes to the 5th so we hung out inside the simulcast area and I made my next bet on Sultry Cat who was listed at 4/1, but was double-digit odds as the betting began. He ended up at 19/1 and was 3rd entering the far turn....oh wow, could it be? No. Flattened out and faded to sixth. I made two bets for Kim - an exacta in the Wise Dan race, my "BET of the Day" race, the 10th - the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve - and a three horse exacta for the Derby. I made my next bet for the 6th, the first of the graded stakes, the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile. We then headed over to The Yardhouse restaurant for lunch. We were fortunate that just a few feet away a big screen TV was showing the racing from Churchill Downs. As we were finishing our lunch they went into the gate. My double-investment was on Tapicat who was a multiple stakes winner, and was a perfect 4-for-4 with Joel Rosario who was back on today. She'd done her best running as a sophomore when gunned to the front and dictate the pace. With Rosario back on and a rail draw I thought she'd wire the field, and her odds were a juicy 4/1. She broke sharply but Rosario let an outside horse go to the front. She tracked comfortably in third saving all the ground and as they turned for home she made her move to get free on the outside. But she had no punch at all and faded to 8th. Kim and I shared three mini-desserts and then she headed to the casino while I headed off to cash my multiple winning tickets and bet the rest of the races on the day. As I approached one of my favorite tellers (ironically she is a twin - her sister works as a teller also - her name is Kim AND she has blonde hair!), she said, "Well you look dapper today!" Nice :) I gave her my tickets and the numbers rolled up to over $400! I had bets in the final six races, including the "BET of the Day" - a $100 wager on Wise Dan. I put the tickets away and headed over to the TV monitors. Jeff called me and asked about my thoughts on the upcoming race, the Grade 1 Humana Distaff. I told him I really liked Midnight Lucky. He asked my thoughts on his strategy - he had $80, he was going to put $20 on Midnight Lucky, and then bring it all back on Wise Dan. The he had a $60 exacta box in mind for the Derby. At first I told him that of the two, Wise Dan was the far more logical one to win. But, he reasoned, he won't pay a lot, so if he bet on 'Lucky and could up his bet, he'd win more. I told him that I understood and that Midnight Lucky was my second best bet of the day. He said that was all he wanted to hear and he went off to bet. Then came up and I said, "You weren't at the slots long." She replied, "I'm done already." I assumed her $10 had been taken in the first few spins, so I said I was sorry. She gave me a devilish smile and said, "No, I'm done because on the third spin I won over $60 and so I walked away!" All right! The day keeps getting better. Then the 7th went off. Midnight Lucky was a fair 8/5, despite being off for nearly a year, she was ultra talented and looked to be the speed of the race. Jockey Rosie Napravnik shot right to the front and dictated the pace to the turn. The top two rivals made their move as they came out of the turn, but Midnight Lucky had a lot left and ran away to win motored down and by daylight!

WHOOOO HOOOOO, another near $40 win! Kim and I head headed out to the paddock and took each other's picture with our winnings....... and then we headed to the car as the dark black clouds began to roll in.

We got to the car before a single drop of rain fell, but by the time we were on the back streets heading away from Gulfstream it started to rain. Within fifteen minutes it was like a Tropical Storm and as we merged onto I-95 the Interstate was flooded nearly half way up my tires! We are so making every right move today! We got home and I turned on the telecast, I wanted to see how the Grade 2 Alysheba came out. I did NOT like the favorite, Will Take Charge, but my pick - Normandy Invasion scratched on Friday. I considered betting Will Take Charge because now he looked obvious, but I just didn't think he would win.......and the harder I looked for an upset candidate I couldn't find anyone that made sense to me. Well, I was right - Will Take Charge did NOT win, in fact he didn't even hit the board! And he winner paid $18 and change. It was over an hour until the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve and I was VERY confident that Wise Dan would win. He'd won eleven straight turf stakes, including back-to-back Breeders' Cup Miles; he was the two-time Horse of the Year; he'd won this very race last year; AND he'd rattled off eleven straight triple digit Beyer figures, all of them 102 or better save the last one. And in his last his trainer had said before the race that "....if they are going to get him it's going to be today because with the winter weather in Kentucky we didn't get to train him enough....." But he'd won anyway and earned a 101 figure. The other nine horses in the field had a combined 94 races and they had earned a SINGLE, yes that's right ONE triple digit Beyer. I had two concerns, which as I watched the telecast Hall of Fame jockey turned analyst Jerry Bailey talked about......first in drawing the #1 post he might have a difficult time finding clear running room. But my thinking, which Bailey talked about was that he'd won from this post before and even over this course, in a driving rainstorm he shot through the narrowest of openings (even leaving scrape marks from the hedges on jockey John Velazquez's boots!) and won. Second, the distance. All but one of Wise Dan's turf stakes wins were at a flat mile and today was a mile and an eighth......but again my thinking was in line with Bailey's analysis - Wise Dan won this race last year at this distance. I just didn't see any way he'd lose barring some catrastophe / injury. As they broke out of the gate the #2 horse shot immediately to the front and this allowed John Velazquez to guide Wise Dan off the hedge - ".....oh, it's all over now..." I thought, he's going to get a smooth trip and not be boxed in. As he moved to the outside of the pace-setter, the #9 horse dove inside to press the pace and for about fifty yards Wise Dan was jostled around. He was mad, both the rider and trainer said, and wanted to go on with it, but neither wanted him on the lead, so Velazquez had to wrangle him back and he lost about three lengths. Still, no worries, he was third and the clear with no one around him. He tracked the pace to the far turn and began gliding to the leaders. As he moved to the front he looked ready to take off and dominate, but as he did the only horse I feared, my second choice #10 Seek Again came flying up the rail. I'd made him my second choice because he had won three races in Europe then shipped "across the pond" to join he Bill Mott barn and promptly won the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby at a mile and a quarter. He had saved all the ground and was flying. Because Wise Dan was on the outside and Seek Again was along the hedge, Velazquez smartly guided Wise Dan inside to draw along side his rival so he could see him eye-to-eye. I thought for sure once they came together he'd draw clear. But instead it was a sensational, nerve-wracking stretch duel. Kim was so excited and concerned and kept saying, "Come on Wise Dan!" At about the 16th pole I thought for just a moment he might lose. But the one thing you cannot measure is the hart of a champion. Wise Dan simply refused to lose and surged in the final fifty yards to win by a measured head. It was one of the most exciting races of the year. It wasn't until he was safely across the finish line that Kim said, ".....hey wait, who was second, the 10?..." And I said yes, and she said, "I hit the exacta!" It paid $13 and change - this day keeps getting better and better!

I thought that Wise Dan should have been 1/5, but he'd floated to 2/5 prior to loading in the gate and at post time he was an amazing 1/2. So with my $100 win bet I was going to get back $150! With that win I was guaranteed to win over $75 today regardless of the Derby outcome and my weekend was complete. It just doesn't get any better than this.

The Derby was almost an after-thought with the dramatic win with my "BET of the Day." I had debated for over a week between betting the favorite California Chrome, or one of many price play legitimate contenders. I told so many people that I thought either California Chrome was as good as he looked, in which case he was a daylight winner as the best three-yard-colt in the country or he would have some issues and not win. So I decided to go with 16/1 Candy Boy. He didn't fire today and California Chrome proved without question he is clearly as good as advertised. On to the Preakness and maybe, just maybe we will have our Triple Crown winner! For the weekend I'd cashed on nearly 50% of my bets and had cleared over $300 in profits.....a phenomenal weekend. And as an added plus, I had out-handicapped the best professional track handicapper I know, Jill Byrne of Churchill Downs: